$IREN (-11,51 %)
$CRWV (-10,62 %)
$NBIS (-10,55 %)
$APLD (-10,79 %) Lambda

Gartner predicts that 80% of neoclouds will have to cease independent operations by 2030

Gartner warns of a potential massive consolidation in the AI infrastructure market. The problem: Investments in data centers, GPUs, and energy infrastructure could significantly exceed future revenue potential.

Key figures:

• Approximately 7 trillion U.S. dollars in AI infrastructure investments by 2030.
• Only up to 3.6 trillion U.S. dollars in attributable AI revenue, compared to an estimated revenue requirement of 8.5 trillion U.S. dollars.
• More than 80% of Neocloud providers could lose their independence by 2030.
• Over $4 trillion in infrastructure assets could be subject to write-downs by 2032.

Known scenarios:

🔴 Bear Case: AI monetization falls short of expectations. Overcapacity, price pressure, and high financing costs lead to write-downs, bankruptcies, and falling valuations.

🟡 Base Case: AI demand continues to grow, but not every provider benefits. The market consolidates; financially strong hyperscalers gain market share, while smaller neoclouds are acquired or exit the market.

🟢 Bull Case: AI monetization accelerates, with utilization rates and prices remaining high. Investments pay off, and efficient infrastructure operators achieve attractive returns.

What do you think?

Is this already priced in today, alongside higher yields on government bonds and potential interest rate hikes?

Or am I overlooking something else that’s driving today’s price movements?

@Multibagger
@Klein-Anleger
@Tenbagger-Capital
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
@Raketentoni
@Pazzzi

$MPTYY is a Spanish REIT, the largest on the Ibex. However, it is one whose traditional business (offices, logistics, shopping centers) is under pressure.

Currently, data centers account for about 10% of rental income; this is expected to rise to 65% by 2032. The situation is quite different at GAV, where data centers already account for 80% of the approximately €13.5 billion.

To date, 160 MW have been leased, including to ($CRWV (-10,62 %) , $META (-3,46 %) and $NBIS (-10,55 %) ).

This is expected to rise to 200 MW by the end of 2026. The pipeline stands at >200 MW. Everything here also depends somewhat on the new regulations in Spain. If they are implemented as announced, things might get tough.

Does anyone know this REIT or is already invested in it? How do you view it compared to “real” data center REITs like $EQIX (-1,82 %) or $DLR (+0,69 %) ?

Edit: Here are some figures from the last quarter:

• Revenue: Total income reached EUR 307 million, with gross rental income at EUR 292 million, representing a 10% like-for-like increase.
• FFO (Funds From Operations): FFO was EUR180 million, an 8% increase year-over-year.
• FFO Guidance: Full-year 2026 FFO guidance was raised from EUR327 million to EUR340 million, equating to approximately EUR0.55 per share.
• Loan-to-Value (LTV): LTV decreased to 24.5%.
• GAV (Gross Asset Value): GAV increased by 3.7% on a like-for-like basis.
• NTA (Net Tangible Assets): NTA stood at EUR15.99 per share.
• Occupancy: Overall occupancy was 94.7%, with shopping centers at 96.9%, logistics at 95%, and offices at 84.4% in Barcelona.
• Like-for-Like Rental Growth: Overall like-for-like rental growth was 3.3%, with shopping centers leading at 6.4%.
• Tenant Sales (Shopping Centers): Tenant sales increased by 8.4%, and foot traffic grew by nearly 2%.
• Occupancy Cost (Shopping Centers): Occupancy costs remained affordable at 10.8%.
• Data Center Leasing: 160 megawatts of IT capacity was brought online, up from 112 megawatts in the previous quarter.
• Data Center Phase 1 GRI: Estimated gross rental income for Phase 1 is EUR68 million for 2026.
• Data Center Promote: Recognized a promote accrual of EUR101 million for Phase 1, with a payment of nearly EUR20 million in March 2026.
• Capital Recycling: Sold EUR75 million in assets as of July, with an additional EUR90 million in divestments agreed upon.
• Liquidity: Held EUR2.6 billion in liquidity.

An article on regulation: https://www.idealista.pt/en/news/financial-advice-in-portugal/2026/10/06/77877-data-centre-development-will-move-to-portugal

$NBIS (-10,55 %) Will raise prices for NVIDIA GPUs on demand starting October 1

• H100: $3.85 → $4.50 (+17%)

• H200: $4.50 → $5.40 (+20%)

• B200: $7.15 → $8.50 (+19%)

• B300: $7.85 → $9.50 (+21%)

• The price increases apply to the most important $NVDA GPU offerings and range from 17% and 21%.

Sounds like a sign of strong demand. I’m curious to see if competitors like $IREN (-11,51 %) or $CRWV (-10,62 %) will follow suit.

Sources:

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nbis-stock-rallies-neocloud-operator-031055938.html

https://goldesel.de/aktien/news/coreweave-aktie-steigt-nachborslich-4-nebius-kundigt-hohere-nvidia-gpu-mieten-an

Slows down Dario Amodeis Is the call for a slower pace in AI now hampering the industry’s growth? The Anthropic CEO called for this over the weekend in his essay “We Must Pace the Frontier”—to deliberately slow the advancement of AI model capabilities— OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and xAI CEO Elon Musk publicly agreed within hours.

Amodei’s core argument: Recursive self-improvement and security incidents such as the OpenAI Hugging Face incident showed that the models’ capabilities are growing faster than the ability to control them. His three-step plan begins with independent auditors working directly within the companies. By this, he means not
halt to training, but rather more time for safety work to proceed in parallel with progress.

Why many see this as a brake on growth

Within the community, the call is being interpreted as a warning sign regarding the AI industry’s high growth rates. A slower pace in the release of new models could dampen demand for fresh computing power and thus weigh on the valuations of AI companies and Neoclouds. Coinciding with the announcement, market prices for Anthropic and OpenAI shares fell.

Why this misses the actual driver of growth

Amodei’s appeal targets the training of new models—and it is precisely this part of the AI value chain that is now the smaller and shrinking segment. According to Deloitte, by 2026, around two-thirds of global AI computing power will be directed toward inference (the ongoing operation of already trained models).

And it is precisely this demand for inference that is growing faster than ever before:

• $GOOGL (-2,33 %)-Cloud order backlog: from $240 billion to $460 billion within one quarter
• Tokens processed by Google: 16 billion per minute, an increase of 60% compared to the previous quarter
• $MSFT (-1,82 %): AI order backlog increased more than twelvefold
• GPU rental prices have grown from ~10 million/MW in early 2026 to as much as ~40–50 million/MW today

So the real bottleneck remains computing power itself, not the political will to slow things down. Microsoft and Google each have investment budgets of around $180–190 billion just to meet demand at all. Training pacing is unlikely to make much of a difference to this scarcity as long as current models are already so powerful for users that demand for their use continues to grow.

Overall , the appeal seems more like a shift in priorities—away from a pure race for capabilities and toward greater safety and control. In my opinion, it is wrong to believe that this will act as a brake on the entire AI value chain.

The largest and fastest-growing part of it—inference—remains virtually untouched by the debate.

This announcement could also come at a strategically opportune time: Training new frontier models costs a great deal of money (tens of billions per model). A deliberately slowed pace would alleviate precisely this cost burden and improve the profitability of Anthropic and OpenAI, just before both are set to make potential IPOs . This safety call—which, incidentally, protects their own balance sheets—comes at just the right time for the model providers.

What are your thoughts on this?

$IREN (-11,51 %)$NBIS (-10,55 %)$NVDA (-1,52 %)$AMZN (-1,93 %)$AMD (-5,46 %)$WULF (-7,71 %)$ORCL (-4,36 %)$CSNDX (-2,47 %)$AVGO (-4,04 %)$SPCX (-1,88 %)$PLTR (-7,51 %)$META (-3,46 %)$CRWV (-10,62 %)$DELL (-4,44 %)$BE (-7,17 %)$MU (-5,27 %)

Sources:

https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier

https://www.deloitte.com/global/en/about/press-room/2026-tmt-predictions.html

OpenAI announced on September 3, released GPT-6 Astra , which shatters all previous AI benchmarks and can generate a playable first-person shooter map in 28 minutes.

Key metrics from OpenAI’s own release:

• FrontierMath Tier 4: 97.6%
• ARC-AGI-3: 99.9%
• OSWorld 2.0 (computer usage): 72.6% with about 47% less time per task than its predecessor, GPT-5.6 Sol, at 65.7%
• ExploitBench: 100% compared to 78.5% for Sol (previous model)
• Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index: 61.2 compared to 60.9 for Sol and 65.7 for Claude Fable 5.1

However, there’s a catch: Astra isn’t designed to be a better chatbot, but rather as computer operator:

It fills out online forms, updates customer records in a CRM system, organizes calendars, conducts research in the browser, creates documents, spreadsheets, and presentations based on templates, and tests finished websites for errors.

Here’s what users have already built with it in the first week:

Astra no longer explains programs like Blender or Unreal Engine—it operates them itself :

• Game map in 28 minutes: Riley Brown had Astra build a first-person shooter map via Codex with full computer access. The log shows 28 minutes and 16 seconds , 20 edited files and 80 automated tests passed —including weapon and audio timing as well as explosion effects.
• A playable world requiring no prior knowledge: Matt Shumer, neither a 3D artist nor a game developer, had a survival world generated in Unreal Engine and set up as a playable character.

The point here isn’t the graphics, but the duration: Tasks spanning hours and days that the model pursues on its own have been the biggest challenge so far.

Astra is also the first model that OpenAI has classified as “Critical” for cybersecurity:

It can find and exploit unknown security vulnerabilities without a human guiding every step. The released version therefore refuses to perform offensive tasks such as building exploits; this capability is only unlocked through the Daybreak defender program. Sam Altman spoke of a “new capability level” for the model.

The leap forward, then, lies in tasks that run for hours and require the management of multiple programs. In terms of pure cognitive ability, the gap is small—in the independent Artificial Analysis Index, Astra is practically on par with its predecessor and trails Claude Fable 5.1.

Those who just chat will hardly notice a difference. Those who delegate work certainly will.

What does this mean for the AI sector?

A model that runs for 28 minutes straight consumes many times more resources than a short chat session and drastically increases token usage. Agent-based work is thus primarily a source of demand for more computing power—and that ends up with $NVDA (-1,52 %)the hyperscalers ($AMZN (-1,93 %)$GOOGL (-2,33 %)$MSFT (-1,82 %)) and the neoclouds ($CRWV (-10,62 %)$NBIS (-10,55 %)$IREN (-11,51 %)), which lease out this capacity.

Sources:

https://openai.com/index/gpt-6-astra/

https://openai.com/index/safety-overview-gpt-6-astra/

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/open-ai-astra-gpt-6-cyber.html

https://x.com/rileybrown/status/2095679352927056230

https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2095596175705399482

$NVDA (-1,52 %) Statements from the earnings call:

– First annual forecast in the company’s history: approximately 70% revenue growth in fiscal year 2028. Customer forecasts indicate a doubling —the 70% figure represents the maximum the supply chain can handle. The bottleneck is expected to persist at least until the end of fiscal year 2028.

– Revenue per gigawatt increases with each generation: $18 billion with Hopper, $25 billion with Grace Blackwell, $40 billion with Vera Rubin. Vera Rubin is expected to account for about 20% of data center revenue in the third quarter and to be the fastest product ramp-up in the company’s history.

– Half of the business comes from outside the hyperscalers: The ACIE segment generated $40 billion, up 138% compared to the previous year. Neocloud partners are expected to close the year with 8 GW of installed capacity, up from approximately 3 GW at the end of 2025.

– $AMZN (-1,93 %) is expanding the partnership: an additional 2 million GPUs starting this quarter through the second quarter of fiscal year 2029. The five largest hyperscalers are expected to reach just under $800 billion in 2026, and around $1.3 trillion.

– Memory prices are squeezing margins: from 75% to 74% in the third quarter; the low point is expected to be 71–72% in the fourth quarter. Kress (CFO) describes the price trend as extreme and well above the company’s own expectations—citing the AI expansion itself as the cause.

– Kress (CFO) on circle financing: just under $50 billion has been invested in Frontier Labs, in addition to financing platforms involving six investors totaling more than $500 billion in third-party capital. “We do not issue loans.” These labs are expected to generate account for about a quarter of total revenue.

– China is left out: Less than 1% of data center revenue came from China in the second quarter; the outlook projects zero revenue from China.

$NBIS (-10,55 %)$CRWV (-10,62 %)$IREN (-11,51 %)

$NVDA (-1,52 %)

The server systems of Spitzenchips are affected Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell, which will be delivered . The amount varies depending on the chip generation and memory configuration. The reason cited is the extremely high prices for RAM ($MU (-5,27 %)$SKHY (-6,9 %)$005930). As a result, part of the value creation in the AI stack is shifting downward—away from the computing chip and toward memory. Just how much of this NVIDIA itself is absorbing is likely to be reflected in the gross margin in the quarterly report on August 26 .

Overall, , this affects hyperscalers like Neoclouds and AI labs, which consequently face even higher costs —because Nvidia chips represent the largest cost factor in AI data centers.

Consequently, GPU rental prices will also continue to rise, which will have a neutral effect for these companies.

The extremely expensive financing, which continues to be weighed down by macroeconomic uncertainty. This price increase further adds fuel to the fire. 🔥

$GOOGL (-2,33 %)$AMD (-5,46 %)$INTC (-5,89 %)$MSFT (-1,82 %)$META (-3,46 %)$IREN (-11,51 %)$CRWV (-10,62 %)$NBIS (-10,55 %)$AVGO (-4,04 %)

Source:

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-22/nvidia-customers-notified-about-ai-related-price-hikes-above-15

$NVDA (-1,52 %) has secured, together with SB Energy (a subsidiary of SoftBank $SFTBY (-10,58 %)), secured the land, power connection, and building shell for a new data center project at the PORTS-Pike Campus in Pike County, Ohio.

The roles are clearly defined: SB Energy will build, own, and operate the data center and lease it to OpenAI for 20 years. NVIDIA is providing credit support for the expansion, investing $1.5 billion in SB Energy, and supplying the GPU chips.

The first phase includes 4.25 IT-GW of computing power, with the option to expand to a total of 8 GW.

This makes NVIDIA itself a “neocloud”:

The company is installing its chips in the leased building shells to lease the computing capacity exclusively to OpenAI.

What happens if OpenAI doesn’t use this facility?

NVIDIA says that, alternatively, the capacity can simply be subleased, making the compute a “profitable and financeable” asset.

This is literally the financial thesis behind Neoclouds: $CRWV (-10,62 %), $IREN (-11,51 %) and $NBIS (-10,55 %) they raise billions in debt, secured against GPU and data center assets—based precisely on the bet that this capacity will retain a residual value and remain available for subleasing.

For the Neocloud industry, this deal has two sides:

First: With these exclusive locations, NVIDIA becomes a direct competitor—the manufacturer secures the best property, the tenant, and the financing for itself, rather than leaving them to a Neocloud provider.

Second: At the same time, the chip manufacturer—of all companies—is publicly endorsing the residual value logic on which the entire model is based—and is even guaranteeing the financing.

In my view, the concern is justified:

If NVIDIA itself acts as a Neocloud provider, potential partners will become competitors. Nevertheless, the deal can also be seen as a positive sign—if the manufacturer backs the interchangeability and residual value thesis with its own capital, that is the strongest conceivable seal of approval for the very business model on which CoreWeave, IREN and Nebius are built on.

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/

$NBIS (-10,55 %)

– Payback period for deals closed in Q2: 1 year, 10 months. This is the real counterargument to the bear case—with this level of capital investment, a payback period of less than two years is the key ROIC (return on invested capital) figure.

CEO Arkady Volozh: “We could sell our entire 2027 capacity today under these terms.”

– Price per MW continues to rise: $40–50 million, sometimes higher. According to Volozh, customers pay a significant premium for immediately available capacity; the annualized contract value per MW for Q3 short-term deals exceeds $40 million.

– Depth of demand: four customer contracts each worth over $1 billion, approximately 70% of Q2 deals with upfront payment. For 2026, Nebius expects over $9 billion in prepayments and cites over $40 billion in commitments.

– Contracted Power raised to 5 GW.

– Revenue of $582.3 million (+454% year-over-year, +46% quarter-over-quarter) with approximately 50% adjusted EBITDA margin in the AI Cloud—margins continue to trend upward (24% → 45% → 50%). $8.04 billion in cash on the balance sheet.

Guidance confirmed: $3.0–3.4 billion in revenue for 2026; $7–9 billion in ARR at year-end.

– Asset-light model: Following the announcement, there were “dozens of inquiries” from partners with capacity and capital but lacking construction and sales expertise.

– Vineland (New Jersey): Building completed this summer; transition to Bloom fuel cells without significant delay; all contractually required trenches delivered. Nebius expects swift approval following the public hearing.

– Volozh on competition: The market is growing by double-digit GW per year, but the hyperscalers can’t build everything—new providers aren’t changing the market; they’re validating it.

$IREN (-11,51 %)
$CRWV (-10,62 %)