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$JMIA (-4,83 %) - Company presentation (difficult market/great potential):

$JMIA (-4,83 %) is an online trading company operating in Africa. The company offers a wide range of products such as electronic goods and fashion.

It offers payment, food delivery, credit and flight booking services.

They stand out in the African e-commerce landscape. Their innovative platform is revolutionizing traditional retail by offering a diverse range of products and services online that are tailored to the specific needs of the African market. The company's integrated payment system, JumiaPay, enhances the customer experience through a seamless, secure transaction process. Jumia's logistics network, designed to overcome regional challenges, ensures efficient delivery, strengthening the company's position as a leader in African e-commerce.

$JMIA (-4,83 %) was founded in Lagos Nigeria in 2012 by two former management consultants Jeremy Hodara and Sacha Poignonnec.

$JMIA (-4,83 %) is active in 11 African countries: Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Ivory Coast, South Africa, Tunisia, Algeria, Ghana, Senegal, Uganda

$JMIA (-4,83 %) Logistics enables the convenient and reliable delivery of goods. It consists of a large network of rented warehouses, pick-up stations for consumers and drop-off points for sellers, as well as more than 400 local external logistics service providers. Their logistics partners and facilities are seamlessly integrated and managed through their proprietary technology, data and processes.

$JMIA (-4,83 %) is taxable in Berlin, the development team is based in Portugal and the actual headquarters are in Dublin .

For this reason, and because the nationality of the two CEOs is French, there are various doubts that $JMIA (-4,83 %) is an African company, as is claimed in the self-promotion.

• In March 2016, the company managed to raise 50 million euros in venture capital
• As Africa's first "unicorn", the technology start-up reached a valuation of over 1 billion US dollars
• In April 2019, the company made its stock market debut on the New York Stock Exchange, raising capital of USD 196 million
• Jumia's share price initially tripled within the first three days of trading before settling back around the initial price a month later
• Among other things, the share price was negatively affected by the allegation made by the US portal Citron Research that Jumia had reported false key figures prior to the IPO.

Arguments for $JMIA (potential/giant market opportunities):

• Africa's e-commerce penetration is only ~5%, compared to over 20% globally, suggesting huge upside potential
• Africa's population is projected to account for 25% of the world's population by 2050 (a huge untapped consumer base)
• With an average age of 19.7 years - a young, digitally savvy consumer base.
• Internet penetration is growing rapidly and is expected to reach 65% by 2030, driven by affordable smartphones and growing infrastructure.
• $JMIA (-4,83 %) is active in 11 major African markets and covers over 70% of the continent's GDP and internet users.
• Market leader in logistics: $JMIA (-4,83 %) Processed 5.6 million parcels on Black Friday and has a delivery infrastructure that covers urban and rural areas
• Fintech expansion: JumiaPay increased transactions by 40% year-on-year, creating opportunities in Africa's underserved regions with banking services
• Financial upside and synergies: Jumia's market capitalization is USD 554 million, the company trades at only about double its revenue
• 1.7 billion Africans will join the consumer economy by 2030, driving demand for e-commerce
• Strong growth figures: GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) +33% YoY (currency adjusted) showing robust demand.
• Orders +18 % YoY, driven by the success of Black Friday.
• Growth in the interior of Nigeria: +44 % YoY,
• Solid financial position: USD 164.6m in cash reserves - ample liquidity for future investments. Operating losses are falling every quarter, demonstrating cost discipline and efficiency gains.
• Attractive valuation: Trades at ~2x sales and 1.7x EV/sales, well below peers in high-growth markets. Market capitalization of USD 554m positions Jumia as a small-cap with significant upside potential.
• Strategic implementation: Focus on domestic expansion, procurement efficiency and adaptation to local markets. Utilization of logistical capacities: 5.6 million parcels were handled during the Black Friday season (+24% year-on-year).
• Long-term potential: Positioned as Africa's leading e-commerce platform. Benefits from improved infrastructure, increasing internet penetration and growing consumer acceptance.
• The African e-commerce market is expected to grow exponentially from USD 30 billion in 2024 to over USD 75 billion in 2030.

The anxiety around Jumia often revolves around a single question: what happens when giants like $AMZN (+4,35 %) , $BABA (+0,06 %) or $PDD (+1,13 %) decide to enter the African market?

At first glance, this is a legitimate concern. But this perspective overlooks the essence of e-commerce success in Africa. It's not about flashy apps or sprawling warehouses in cities - it's about solving the logistical puzzle. And that's where Jumia's advantage lies. Africa's logistical challenges are unprecedented. In many regions, physical addresses are not a given, but a rarity, making deliveries difficult and turning traditional e-commerce models on their head.

$JMIA (-4,83 %) operates in an environment where customers often live miles away from hubs and there are no traditional delivery points. This is where Jumia has built its moat. It's more than an e-commerce platform, it's a logistics powerhouse designed to tackle the complexities of the continent. It's not just about delivering parcels. Jumia's network connects remote and rural regions that global competitors may not be able to serve. Take Nigeria, for example. With a population of over 200 million, the consumer base extends far beyond the urban centers of Lagos. Selling products is one thing, reaching underserved regions with sparse infrastructure is another and this is where $JMIA (-4,83 %) strength.

The logistics system is not easily replicated and is a barrier to entry that global giants must reckon with. International players eyeing Africa have a difficult choice: invest billions in building a comparable infrastructure or partner with $JMIA (-4,83 %) whose network has already proven itself in markets such as Ghana, Kenya and the Ivory Coast. In either case $JMIA (-4,83 %) benefit from this. The company is the natural ally - or rival - for any e-commerce player trying to gain a foothold in Africa. And $JMIA (-4,83 %) is constantly improving its market position and is not satisfied. Operational improvements are further consolidating its position. Consolidating smaller warehouses into larger, technology-enabled facilities and optimizing fulfillment centers in core markets such as Nigeria and Ghana reduces $JMIA (-4,83 %) inefficiencies. These changes not only reduce costs, but also create scalability, allowing the company to expand deeper into untapped regions where there is little competition.

Of course, the macroeconomic backdrop is tough. Currency devaluations and volatile markets weigh heavily on $JMIA (-4,83 %) 's operating environment. But its logistics network remains an irreplaceable asset that global competitors struggle to replicate, even with significant investment. A current outstanding key figure underlines this: Over 50% of orders from $JMIA (-4,83 %) now come from outside the major cities, a testament to its reach and resilience.

Western companies often dream of penetrating African markets, but constantly fail. Deciphering the African logistics code has proved too complex, and currency risks are driving many to retreat. Meanwhile $JMIA (-4,83 %) is flourishing. It is adapting to challenges that others consider insurmountable and consolidating its leadership position.

Can competitors catch up? A question that is often asked ?

At the moment, they can't really. Jumia's logistics network is more than an operational tool, it's a fortress. This system, built to withstand Africa's unique challenges, is the foundation of its success. It is also the core of its strategy, the playbook of $AMZN (+4,35 %) , $MELI (-0,63 %) , $BABA (+0,06 %) to follow.

Building a strong logistics network to create lasting barriers to market entry. The latest Black Friday results (as briefly outlined above) underline this potential. Orders increased by 18 % year-on-year, while GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) grew by an impressive 33 % in constant currency.

However, significant currency devaluations in key markets such as Nigeria and Egypt dampened reported GMV growth to just 2%. Despite these headwinds, Jumia's underlying business demonstrates its ability to weather macroeconomic storms. The customer retention metrics speak for themselves. The total number of customers rose by 9% and orders increased by 18%.

A 44% increase in physical goods orders from regions outside Nigeria's major cities. This expansion into the interior of the country underlines the untapped potential that Jumia is beginning to develop.

The switch to an asset-light model is also paying off. Jumia Logistics recorded a 24% increase in parcel volumes, underlining the efficiency of its operations. On the supply side, international procurement is booming. The number of items from global sellers has risen by 31 %.

This diversifies the platform's offering to meet growing consumer demand. This diversification is critical to cementing Jumia's role in Africa's dynamic e-commerce landscape. And yet the market has not caught up. Despite this progress, Jumia's valuation is still not dependent on the dynamics of its core business.

Continued improvements in logistics, geographic expansion and customer acquisition could provide the basis for significant upside potential

However, the way forward will not be easy. Currency fluctuations in key markets and dependence on cash reserves pose risks. But Jumia offers a rare opportunity to enter one of the fastest growing e-commerce markets in the world. $JMIA (-4,83 %) is far from over - it is just beginning.

Earnings highlights for the third quarter of 2024:

- Revenue of $36.4 million, down 13% YoY, or up 9% in constant currency

- GMV of $162.9 million, down 1% YoY, or up 29% in constant currency

- Operating loss of $20.1 million compared to $18.3 million in the third quarter of 2023, up 10% YoY, and up 6% in constant currency

- Adjusted EBITDA loss of $17.0 million compared to $14.8 million in the third quarter of 2023, up 15% YoY, and up 10% in constant currency

- Loss before income tax from continuing operations of $17.8 million in the third quarter of 2024, down 17% YoY or down 2% in constant currency

- Liquidity position of $164.6 million, an increase of $71.8 million in the third quarter of 2024, that includes the net proceeds from the August 2024 At-the-Market (ATM) offering, compared to a decrease of $19.0 million in the third quarter of 2023

- Net cash flows used in operating activities of $26.8 million compared to $24.0 million in the third quarter of 2023

• Summary and personal opinion: $JMIA (-4,83 %) Blend of market leadership, operational improvements and growth in untapped regions, positions the company for exponential growth. At current levels, it could be a rewarding, very long-term investment in one of the most promising markets in the world, even if the environment is very challenging and the investment naturally carries a lot of risk. A takeover by a major player such as $AMZN (+4,35 %) , $MELI (-0,63 %) , $BABA (+0,06 %) could also be possible, as setting up your own logistics is very difficult and costly. ✌️

$AMZN (+4,35 %) , $MELI (-0,63 %)
$BABA (+0,06 %) , $SE (-0,59 %) , $PDD (+1,13 %) , $JD (+0,77 %) , $9618 (+0,75 %) , $9988 (-0,45 %) , $CPNG (-0,29 %) , $EBAY (-0,31 %)

Analyst updates, 05.11.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for BIONTECH from USD 110 to USD 130. Outperform. $BNTX (-0,66 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for AIRBUS from EUR 161 to EUR 165. Overweight. $AIR (-1,9 %)

- CITIGROUP raises the price target for SCOUT24 from EUR 91 to EUR 94.50. Buy. $G24 (+2,17 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for REDCARE PHARMACY from EUR 174 to EUR 176. Buy. $RDC (-5,64 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for RYANAIR from EUR 17 to EUR 17.50. Hold. $RYA (-1,65 %)

- BERNSTEIN rates EBAY from Market-Perform to Outperform. Target price USD 70. $EBAY (-0,31 %)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for SALZGITTER from EUR 14 to EUR 15.50. Underperform. $SZG (-3,07 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 16 to EUR 17. Equal-Weight. $CBK (-0,91 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for MTU from EUR 295 to EUR 340. Equal-Weight. $MTX (-1,16 %)

- MORGAN STANLEY rates LUFTHANSA to Equal-Weight. Target price EUR 7. $LHA (-0,08 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT from EUR 3.50 to EUR 5. Hold.

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for MERCEDES-BENZ from EUR 65 to EUR 63. Buy. $MBG (+0,79 %)

- UBS lowers target price for 1&1 from EUR 21.60 to EUR 21. Buy.

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for GFT TECHNOLOGIES from EUR 40 to EUR 37.50. Buy. $GFT (-0,8 %)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for ECKERT & ZIEGLER from EUR 63.50 to EUR 55. Buy. $EUZ (+0,56 %)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for BNP PARIBAS from EUR 90 to EUR 85. Overweight. $BNP (-2,64 %)

- BERENBERG downgrades SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from Buy to Hold and lowers price target from EUR 261 to EUR 255. $SU (-3,31 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for BEFESA from EUR 41 to EUR 31. Buy. $BFSA (+0 %)

Aftermarket after quarterly figures

+21% Carvana $CVNA (+0,07 %)

+11% Twilio $TWLO (-1,9 %)

+9% Sprouts Farmers Market $SFM (+4,25 %)

+7% Booking $BKNG (-0,67 %)

+7% Paycom Software

+5% Allstate

+4% Transocean

+3% Clorox $CLX (+0,55 %)

+2% KLA $KLAC (-0,88 %)

+1% Starbucks $SBUX (-0,6 %)

+1% Omega Healthcare

+0% Microsoft $MSFT (-0,59 %)

-1% Amgen

-1% DoorDash $DASH (+0,9 %)

-1% AFLAC

-1% Public Storage

-2% Equinix

-3% Meta $META (+0,47 %)

-4% MicroStrategy $MSTR (-6,1 %)

-4% Coinbase $COIN (-10,86 %)

-6% MetLife

-6% MGM Resorts

-6% Riot Platforms $RIOT (-6,57 %)

-7% eBay $EBAY (-0,31 %)

-7% Ventas

-9% Robinhood Markets $HOOD (-4,47 %)

-10% Roku

-11% Monolithic Power Systems

-13% Aurora Innovation

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