DAX reaches new all-time high again 🇩🇪📈💶👑. The left, trade unions and Wahra Sagenknecht would say that the stock market is a casino and a game of chance. Some people just always want to be wrong. Samsung Galaxy Watch 7 Which German shares do you have and how have they performed? #dax
#dax40
$LYY7 (+0,26 %)
$SIE (+0,08 %)
$ALV (+0,67 %)
$SAP (-0,1 %)
$VOW (+0,16 %)
$BMW (-0,46 %)
$P911 (-0,79 %)
$RHM (-0,1 %)
$ENR (+5,31 %)
$AIR (+1,53 %)
$DTE (+0,38 %)
$DBK (+1,32 %)
$DHL (+0,24 %)
$CBK (+1,68 %)
$MBG (+1,64 %)
$PAH3 (+0,46 %)

I think Toyota Prius but Mercedes also good, BMW too. Race perhaps the strongest.

Others less good.

Unfortunately Subaru also very very weak.

What is happening with Hyundai ADR? Lies DEAD in my depot.

Renault and Stellantis also quite weak. VW slightly better but not good.

Ferrari is very strong but not really a car stock.

Porsche Holding, interesting.

Here is a photo of my beautiful family carriage

$7203 (-2,09 %)

$MBG (+1,64 %)

$BMW (-0,46 %)

$7270 (-2,48 %)

$STLAM (+0,2 %)

$RNO (+1,74 %)

$RACE (+0,38 %)

After I wrote in the first post about the consequences of the announced and effective tariffs of the USA... there are now some concrete answers from the affected countries, especially from Canada.

It's hard to keep up with all the news 👀

In this post, I go into more detail about the possible consequences for the EU, especially for the automotive sector.

"1st post from this morning" can be read again here: https://getqu.in/oj1JRH/

Trump's new tariffs: Recap

Since February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

• Trump's decrees also contain a passage stating that the tariffs could be increased or extended if the countries respond with retaliatory measures [1].

Canada: A tough counterattack

• Canada has already reported on countermeasures in the form of three levels of escalation [2]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Now it's getting concrete:

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced at a press conference in the evening Canadian time that tariffs of 25 percent will also be introduced on US goods from Tuesday next week 🔄 [2].

The tariffs planned by Canada are intended for US goods with a total value of 155 billion dollars.

The Canadian government is also considering measures in other areas, such as trade in critical minerals.

Further effects on companies:

• Canadian exports to the USA will become more expensive and therefore less competitive.

Particularly affected: (automotive, energy, raw materials, agriculture)

German car manufacturers used Canada as a production and export location

• Volkswagen $VOW3 (+0,39 %) , BMW $BMW (-0,46 %) , Mercedes Benz $MBG (+1,64 %)
• e.g. VW is planning a battery factory in Canada to supply its US plants, Trudeau's government has lured the billion-euro project with high subsidies [2]. Trump's tariffs could make this billion-euro project unprofitable 🤡

Canadian oil and gas producers sell large quantities to the US, higher tariffs could make exports less attractive and squeeze profits.

• affected e.g. Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ (-0,9 %) Suncor Energy $SU (-0,98 %)

Fertilizer producers are heavily dependent on US exports, higher costs and a competitive disadvantage compared to US competitors represent a potential risk.

• affected e.g. Nutrien $NTR (-1,12 %)

Mexico: The USA punishes its most important trading partner

Counter-tariffs possible: President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced corresponding measures and instructed her Secretary of Commerce to implement a plan that considers counter-tariffs [2]. - We can be curious.

Mexico's dependence on the USA:

• According to economists, the tariff policy is likely to harm both economies through higher inflation and job losses.
• 80% of Mexican exports go to the USA, no other country exports more to the US.
• Millions of jobs and thousands of companies depend on the US market 💀

Trump uses tariffs as political leverage:

• He wants to force Mexico to take a tougher stance against illegal migration and drug cartels.
• He also accuses China of circumventing tariffs by allowing Chinese companies to export from Mexico to the USA.

Impact on European companies: (again the car manufacturers 👀)

• Almost all manufacturers and many suppliers use Mexico as a cheap production location and serve the US market from there
• VW, Audi and BMW have their own factories in the country, while Mercedes Benz produces in a joint plant with Nissan.
• With an additional surcharge, it hardly makes sense to send cars from Mexico to the USA.
• In response, manufacturers are expected to relocate at least part of their production from Mexico to the USA (at high cost, of course), where VW, BMW and Mercedes also have plants.

China: a further burden for an ailing economy

• China strongly criticized the punitive tariffs [2].
• Complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO): China sees the tariffs as unfair and wants to take legal action against them.

Consequences for China:

• US tariffs make Chinese products more expensive in the USA.
• The already weakening economy will be further burdened.

Indirect effects on Europe:

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD $1211 (+7,99 %) could be forced to develop alternative markets and push even harder into Europe.

• The result: more competition for German car manufacturers and possible price wars.
• VW & Co. are already struggling with overcapacity in Germany.

Furthermore:

• Foxconn $2354 an important Apple supplier with production in China and Mexico
• Punitive tariffs could make it necessary to relocate production.

Is the EU facing the same fate?

Trump has already indicated that the EU must also fear tariffs.

• His main argument: the EU has treated the USA unfairly in trade.

Possible measures:

• Tariffs on... who would have thought... the automotive industry and also other exports from the EU.
• Car exports to the USA could become increasingly unprofitable -> relocating production to the USA could ultimately be the only solution.
• A new edition of the trade conflict from Trump's first term in office (2017-2021).

Possible reaction of the EU:

• If Trump escalates again, the EU could also take retaliatory measures so far I haven't heard anything concrete 😴

Conclusion: Trade war 2.0?

Trump is once again focusing on confrontation and using tariffs as economic and political leverage. The countries affected are fighting back, which increases the risk of a global trade war.

The consequences are far-reaching:

USA: Higher prices for consumers, relocation of production to the domestic market possible.

China: Further economic pressure, stronger focus on Europe as a sales market.

Mexico & Canada: Massive burden on the economy & industry, relocation of production conceivable.

Europe: German car manufacturers under pressure, possible US tariffs on European products.

I'm in the mood... Thanks for reading, I've had enough now! 🤝

__________

Main sources:

[1] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

[2] https://de.finance.yahoo.com/nachrichten/roundup-kanada-mexiko-china-kontern-083517258.html

Which German shares did you buy and how did they perform?#dax
#dax40
#deutschland
$SAP (-0,1 %)
$RHM (-0,1 %)
$MUV2 (+0,13 %)
$ALV (+0,67 %)
$ADS (+1,69 %)
$DE000A0PNN47
$VOW (+0,16 %)
$MBG (+1,64 %)
$P911 (-0,79 %)
$PAH3 (+0,46 %)
$BMW (-0,46 %)
$DTE (+0,38 %)
$DHL (+0,24 %)
$DB1 (-1,15 %)
$DBK (+1,32 %)
$RHM (-0,1 %)
$AIR (+1,53 %)
$LYY7 (+0,26 %)

The German commercial vehicle manufacturer Daimler Truck has secured the largest order for electric trucks in the company's history.

Amazon has ordered 200 heavy-duty Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 electric trucks, the online retailer announced on Monday. "This is an important milestone for us," Andreas Marschner, Vice President of Amazon Worldwide Operations Sustainability, told the Reuters news agency. "Decarbonizing heavy-duty transport is the most difficult part of transportation." The vehicles are to be used in Germany and the UK and will be integrated into the online retailer's network this year. According to Amazon, this is the largest order of electric trucks for the company to date. The 40-ton trucks are to be used in the medium-distance network between fulfillment centers, sorting centers and delivery bases.

The eActros 600 has a range of 500 kilometers and is therefore well suited to Amazon's delivery network, according to Marschner. To support the use of the trucks, Amazon is building a network of 360-kilowatt fast-charging stations at its locations. These can charge a truck from 20 to 80 percent in less than an hour, "which is also compatible with the legally prescribed breaks for drivers," explains Marschner. The order is part of Amazon's voluntary commitment to achieve net-zero emissions at all sites by 2040.

$AMZN (-1,2 %)
$DTG (-1,83 %)
$MBG (+1,64 %)

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 56 to EUR 60. Buy. $ENR (+5,31 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for MERCEDES-BENZ from EUR 48.50 to EUR 50. Underweight. $MBG (+1,64 %)

- JEFFERIES upgrades SMA SOLAR from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 14 to EUR 20. $S92 (-0,76 %)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for DEUTSCHE BÖRSE from EUR 226 to EUR 231. Neutral. $DB1 (-1,15 %)

- BOFA upgrades BBVA from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 11 to EUR 13. $BBVA (+2,14 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH upgrades FUCHS SE from Hold to Buy. Target price EUR 50. $FPE

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for FLATEXDEGIRO from EUR 17 to EUR 18. Buy. $FTK (-1,61 %)

- BERENBERG raises the target price for IBERDROLA from EUR 12.30 to EUR 14. Hold. $IBE (-0,86 %)

- JEFFERIES upgrades PVA TEPLA from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 12 to EUR 19. $TPE (+4,19 %)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for FRIEDRICH VORWERK from EUR 23 to EUR 30. Hold. $VH2 (-1,24 %)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for ZEAL NETWORK from EUR 45 to EUR 58. Buy. $TIMA (+0 %)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for ADESSO from EUR 75 to EUR 85. Hold. $ADN1 (+0,96 %)

- JEFFERIES upgrades NEL from Underperform to Hold. Target price NOK 3. $NEL (-2,26 %)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for RWE from EUR 46.50 to EUR 42. Buy. $RWE (-2,32 %)

- GOLDMAN lowers target price for EON from EUR 17.50 to EUR 17. Buy. $EOAN (-1,54 %)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB downgrades AIXTRON from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 26.40 to EUR 13.80. $AIXA (-2,67 %)

- METZLER lowers the price target for DWS from EUR 41 to EUR 40.50. Hold. $DWS (+0,06 %)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for ASTRAZENECA from GBP 159.55 to GBP 155.58. Buy. $AZN (+0,73 %)

- TD COWEN downgrades STMICRO to Hold. Target price EUR 24.50. $STM (+1,36 %)

- JPMORGAN downgrades CONSTELLATION BRANDS to Neutral. Target price USD 203. $STZ (-1,22 %)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for DOCMORRIS from CHF 65 to CHF 39. Buy. $DOCM (-1,79 %)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for ATOSS SOFTWARE from EUR 112 to EUR 108. Hold. $AOF (+0,87 %)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for JENOPTIK from EUR 34 to EUR 29. Buy. $JEN (-2,98 %)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for KONTRON from EUR 29 to EUR 27. Buy. $KTN (-0,3 %)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for SILTRONIC from EUR 95 to EUR 90. Buy. $WAF (+2,69 %)

- JEFFERIES downgrades VERBIO from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 22 to EUR 11. $VBK (+5,79 %)

- JEFFERIES downgrades SGL CARBON from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 9.50 to EUR 4.40. $SGL (+1,37 %)

At the beginning of each year, a position that is in the red is increased so that it incurs even more losses over the course of the year....

What a turbulent week on the stock market, I had to buy more 😅 How are things looking for you?

$KLAC (-1,69 %)
$ADBE (-0,37 %)
$SIKA (-0,18 %)
$HOLN (-0,39 %)
$MBG (+1,64 %)
$CVX (-0,55 %)
$MRNA (-1,31 %)

$MBG (+1,64 %)
$TSLA (+3,56 %)

Mercedes-Benz is allowed to offer highly automated driving up to 95 km/h on German highways. The manufacturer is thus setting a new standard in the industry - while Tesla continues to lag behind in this area.

Mercedes: Level 3 autonomous driving up to 95 km/h

The German Federal Motor Transport Authority has granted Mercedes-Benz approval to equip the S-Class and the EQS with its advanced Drive Pilot. The system enables highly automated Level 3 driving and raises the previous speed limit from 60 to 95 km/h.

The driver can lean back in the right-hand lane of the highway behind a vehicle in front while the Drive Pilot takes control. Reading or working is permitted as long as attention can be directed back to the traffic if necessary.

In contrast to Tesla, which has so far only offered assisted driving functions without these freedoms, Mercedes has a clear head start with the certified Level 3 system. The new software will be available from spring 2025 via an update and does not require any additional hardware. The price for the function remains unchanged at €5,950 for the S-Class and €8,842 for the EQS. Vehicles already equipped will receive the update free of charge.

Mercedes: autonomous 130 km/h as the target

The technology from Mercedes is based on an extensive sensor system that combines cameras, radar and LiDAR to precisely record the surroundings. According to the manufacturer, map navigation accurate to the centimetre ensures that the vehicle can operate safely (source: Mercedes-Benz).

Mercedes has made it clear that these innovations not only improve comfort and safety, but also lay the foundation for future expansions. The aim is to gradually extend autonomous driving to 130 km/h.

https://www.giga.de/tech/mercedes-zieht-an-tesla-vorbei-davon-kann-elon-musk-nur-traeumen--01JFCWD3GA9H6YM5K0GAJ3VWEF

In Part 1 I described my start as an investor from 2010 to 2016. Despite loss-making investments and bad decisions (buying AT&T instead of Amazon), I was able to achieve a portfolio value of €35,000. These experiences were to lay the first foundation stone for my future successful investment strategy (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV)

In part 2 I talk about further setbacks in 2017 and 2018 and how the purchase of MasterCard shares marked the turning point in my investment career. Despite initial losses and professional dissatisfaction, I realized that my original strategy wasn't working and discovered the "dividend growth" for me. With a new professional position and a solid salary, I was finally able to really hit the ground running in 2019 (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

In part 3 it will now be about the years 2019 to 2021 will be discussed. In these 3 years, my portfolio has increased fivefold. From €40,000, it went up to €199,000 in the meantime. But not everything was positive here either. During this time, I also made the two worst trades of my investment career. In addition to Wirecard, there were two other equity investments that resulted in losses of over 80%.

The year 2019 & the first share savings plans:

The year 2019 started with a portfolio balance of ~€40,000 and after my MasterCard purchase in December 2018, my major portfolio reorganization was to continue directly at the beginning of 2019. So in the first four months with Tencent $700 (+3,25 %)
Intel $INTC (+1,84 %)
Salesforce $CRM (-0,88 %)
Alphabet $GOOG (-1,16 %) and Meta $META (-0,08 %) (then still Facebook), five more tech stocks were added to my portfolio. In return I have BHP Billiton $BHP (+0,92 %)
Macy's $M (-0,02 %)
and Hugo Boss $BOSS (+0,01 %) sold.

Later in the year, the shares of Mercedes $MBG (+1,64 %)
and AT&T $T (-0,08 %) were also removed from the portfolio.

In addition to further acquisitions such as Pepsi $PEP (-0,91 %)
Nextera Energy $NEE (-0,84 %)
or Xylem $XYL (-1,45 %) I also recognized the benefits of share savings plans in 2019 and started to set up a pure "savings plan custody account". At that time, this was still done via comdirect or Consorsbank and each savings plan execution cost a fee of 0.75%.

Another sale in 2019 was the Gamestop-share $GME (-2,03 %) . Bought in 2016 to have something to do with gaming in the portfolio, but not taking into account that stationary sales are becoming less and less relevant. In the end, the share price fell by 85% - unfortunately, this was long before the memestock hype emerged.

My portfolio rose to ~€67,000 in 2019 and achieved a return of 23%. However, this was still well below the MSCI World and the S&P 500.

The year 2020 - Corona, Wirecard bankruptcy & 100k before 30 in the portfolio

2020 - a year that few of us will probably forget. While everything was still going reasonably smoothly in January and February 2020, chaos was set to break out from mid-February/March.

The first few weeks of 2020 had given rise to hopes of a very positive development in my portfolio. From the beginning of January to mid-February, my portfolio rose by almost €10,000 to €77,000.

Panic then slowly set in from mid-February. I still remember exactly how trading on the US stock markets was repeatedly suspended for short periods and daily losses of 10% were normal. At 0 o'clock sharp, I looked at the US futures and in seconds the futures went down by -5%. A cap for the futures, the futures loss must not be higher and you knew the next morning it would end badly for the DAX.

But when there is blood in the streets, you can make very good deals! So in March 2020 I bought the Allianz
$ALV (+0,67 %) for €118. This gives me a personal dividend yield of almost 12% based on the current dividend of €13.80. Unfortunately, I only bought for €1,000 in total.

Also Starbucks
$SBUX (+0,13 %) I was able to buy for less than €50.

The stock market crash continued until the Fed made short work of it and ended the crash single-handedly. The crash was ended with interest rate cuts and massive money printing and once again the saying "Never bet against the FED" proved to be true.

The stock markets then went through the roof and within a very short space of time were already back to a positive level compared to the end of 2019. Every share that somehow falls under the term "stay at home" was suddenly the hot tip on the stock market. Whether the Peloton $PTON (-0,47 %)

or Teladoc $TDOC (-2,24 %) everything went through the roof.

I let myself get carried away and did about 10 "Stay at Home" hype stocks into a growth savings plan portfolio. Of these, at the end of 2024 with Sea $SE (-0,08 %) and MercadoLibre $MELI (-0,72 %) only two shares remained. It goes without saying that most of them left the portfolio at a loss.

But 2020 was also the Wirecard year $WDI (-33,51 %) BaFin's ban on short selling, a year-long audit by EY, political backing and massive investments by German fund managers from DWS, UnionInvest and Deka vs. a journalist from the Financial Times.

Wirecard's claims that the journalist was in cahoots with short sellers and the backing from various institutions were unfortunately too credible for me.

When Wirecard faced the press and announced that EUR 2 billion could no longer be found, things went downhill and it became clear to everyone that the company was heading for insolvency. Before trading was suspended, I was able to sell my shares at a 50% loss and got off lightly.

Later in the year, I was able to conclude an extremely favorable leasing offer and sell my private car. The proceeds went straight into my securities account and I broke the €100,000 barrier in November 2020.

My portfolio then ended the year with a value of ~€120,000. At +5%, my performance was pretty much in line with the MSCI World.

The year 2021 - HYPE! Wall Street bets, crypto and almost 200k in the portfolio

The year 2021 was characterized above all by hypes. Cryptocurrencies, memestocks and memecoins were in the headlines everywhere. Gamestop, Dogecoin, SPACs and NFTs everyone had to have.

Traditional shares became almost boring.

One of the reasons was certainly the checks that the US government issued to its citizens. It was still Corona, many were locked down and suddenly people started gambling on the stock market.

The hype can be illustrated very well using the example of NFTs. In 2021, NFTs worth $17 billion were traded, in 2023 it was only 80 million - a decline of 97%. According to one study, ~95% of all NFTs are now completely worthless.

The madness in one example: Procter & Gamble launched a Charmin toilet paper NFT. This was sold for over $4,000. All proceeds were donated, but a symbol of the madness of 2021.

From a portfolio perspective, 2021 was great! In the end, there was a +32% return and a portfolio value of over €190,000, which at times in November 2021 was €199,000.

My top performers were NVIDIA
$NVDA (-1,12 %) with over 100% price gains and Pfizer $PFE (-0,2 %)
, which was driven by the vaccine hype and at €50 was twice as high as in 2024.

My worst performer was another 80% loss with TAL Education $TAL (+4,83 %) . An education company from China. Unfortunately, this was the first time I was able to experience the political arbitrariness in countries like China. Overnight, it was decided that education/tutoring could only be run as a non-profit. Of course, this was almost a death sentence for the company and the share price plummeted by 80%.

Asset development & return:

After the years 2013 to 2018 were forgettable in terms of returns, the years 2019 to 2021 finally delivered:

Year
Deposit value
Yield

2019 67.000€ +19%

2020 121.000€ +5%

2021 193.000€ +34%

Vermögensentwicklung 2019-2021:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2021:

Outlook:

Looking back on the hype year 2021, it is almost obvious that 2022 had to be clearly negative.

After the party, however, came the hangover in the form of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sharply rising interest rates and global economic concerns did the rest.

In the next part, I would therefore like to look at the years 2022 & 2023. I will then combine 2024 with my review of the year in the last part.

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends