$DTE (-0,12 %)

Hello everyone,

After slipping below the 25-euro mark, Telekom stock is testing new multi-month lows. Looking beyond the daily chart noise, there are currently three fundamental and technical drivers weighing on the price, but at the same time creating an interesting risk-reward ratio (RWR).

1. End of price support from the share buyback program

Technical support on the chart is currently fading, as the multi-billion-euro share buyback program is set to expire at the end of June as planned. The market’s reliable institutional buyer is thus taking a break for the time being, which has temporarily increased selling pressure in the order book.

2. The T-Mobile US merger rumors

Ongoing reports of a transatlantic holding company merger with T-Mobile US (to finally secure a majority stake in the U.S. and structurally block attacks such as those from SpaceX/Starlink) are causing uncertainty. A deal of this magnitude is extremely complex and ties up capital. Operationally, this does not change the fact that Telekom holds an absolute majority in the U.S., but the market is currently pricing in this short-term uncertainty.

3. The market views AI infrastructure as “traditional telecom”

Fundamentally, Telekom is still priced as a pure network operator (expected P/E ratio currently below 13, dividend yield just under 4%). Meanwhile, the Industrial AI Cloud launched in Munich in February (10,000 Nvidia Blackwell chips in the SAP stack)—which serves as Telekom’s own European cloud infrastructure for large corporations—has so far been completely ignored by the market.

Conclusion:

The fundamental valuation is becoming increasingly attractive at prices around €24.80. Those who view the stock as a defensive dividend play will find a solid foundation here for building a position following the technical correction in June, as the operational targets for 2026 (approx. €19 billion in free cash flow) remain fully intact.

How do you assess the current price level? Wait for a technical bottom, or start buying the first tranche?

Here’s another relevant video.

https://youtu.be/WLIFaVSrVtI?is=No58apZ7ro607RiA

The $DTE (-0,12 %) is taking a massive hit after weeks of speculation about a merger with its U.S. subsidiary, compounded now by takeover speculation $SPCX (+1,29 %) have surfaced.

https://www.boerse-online.de//nachrichten/aktien/uebernahmeziel-erster-wahl-klaut-spacex-der-deutschen-telekom-ihr-tafelsilber-20403628.html

Since key support at €26 couldn’t be held, the price could now plummet to €23. I’ll wait and see for now, but then possibly buy more at the bottom if necessary. I don’t believe the takeover will happen, but I now see the merger as much more realistic than I did a few weeks ago.

As we do every Sunday, here are the top news stories from the past week:

Monday:

Elon Musk may have raked in billions from SpaceX’s $SPCX (+1,29 %) SpaceX, but apparently the money isn’t enough for his AI ambitions, so he’s launching a $20 billion bond program. This isn’t going over well with SpaceX investors. The bonds are expected to yield about 5–6% interest.

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/tech/spacex-raumfahrtfirma-plant-anleiheemission-ueber-20-milliarden-dollar-a-a53d0f6c-f213-46e1-b2f0-ba302b56c037

Tuesday:

DB has once again outdone itself and hit an all-time low. For hours overnight, no trains ran in Germany. Other former state-owned corporations, such as $DHLGY (+0,72 %) Deutsche Post (DHL) or $DTE (-0,12 %) Deutsche Telekom, do not face comparable problems. Perhaps we should consider further privatization of DB or follow the Swiss model (where local municipalities also have a say at the regional level).

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/deutsche-bahn-stoerung-zugfunk-100.html

Wednesday:

$ADS (+1,35 %) Adidas is reportedly selling three times as many DFB jerseys as it did in Qatar in 2022. This may be partly because people can now actually wear the DFB jersey. The switch to $NKE (+0,08 %) Nike could also be a factor.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/arts_und_style/lifestyle/wm-2026-deutschland-trikots-laut-adidas-boss-begehrt-wie-nie/100231388.html

$VOW3 (+2,56 %) Volkswagen is selling a majority stake in Everllance to Bain, reaping billions in the process. Everllance has so far been carried on the balance sheet at a value significantly below its market value, which is likely to result in an extraordinary profit of several billion.

https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/2026-06/volkswagen-everllence-bain-capital-grossmotoren-verkauf-gxe

Thursday:

$BAYN (+0,3 %) Bayer appears to have pulled off a major victory. The agricultural and pharmaceutical company won its case before the U.S. Supreme Court. The court ruled that regulations set by federal agencies take precedence over state laws. As a result, thousands of lawsuits alleging insufficient cancer warnings have lost their legal basis.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/bayer-gewinnt-glyphosat-streit-in-den-usa-vor-supreme-court-a-42b636b2-e059-4560-95c9-5433ee192e62

$DTE (-0,12 %) - The device

A Take on “Magenta Fever”

Telekom is like the German forest: sometimes a bit overgrown, very large, everywhere, and you need a good compass to avoid getting lost in the jungle of rate plans. But in the end, we’re somehow still glad that the network (mostly) works.

$DTE (-0,12 %)

The stock of $DTE (-0,12 %) have been falling significantly since the merger rumors surfaced, so I’m now adding to my position again, bringing my total to 180 shares. The earnings were good, and fundamentally, nothing has changed for me. So I’m happy to take advantage of this opportunity to buy at a lower price. That said, my position is actually full now. If the price drops back to €25, though, my inner Monk will come out again, and I’ll increase my position to 250 shares—if I have the cash available.

Text gone again. Thanks GQ. In the meantime I always copy it and then paste it into the edit. Get a grip on that!!! 😡

I had bought TKA before the split with $TKMS to get them allocated. Unfortunately, the allocation was too late for my broker ING to sell at a significant profit immediately after the IPO. Nevertheless, I sold them at the time and kept Thyssen in the hope that the share price would recover. It did, but I wanted more. So I have now sold slightly after the rally. Overall, TKMS is up, but still not the greatest investment.

A quarter of the profits went into $DTE (-0,12 %) which I currently see as cheap. Another quarter in $TDIV (+0,44 %) and a quarter in $BTC (-0,01 %) . The rest remains in cash for the time being.