On October 1, the model replaced 18 of its 30 positions. One month later, all six of the month’s top-performing stocks are new additions resulting from that very rebalancing. However, three of the six worst-performing stocks are as well. The Wikifolio ended October down 11.64 percent, its weakest month since its launch in March.

October was not a good month for tech stocks. Concerns about AI spending by the major cloud companies have resurfaced; the SOX semiconductor index lost 15.4 percent over the month, and the Nasdaq fell 5.3 percent. That was its weakest month since March 2025. Quarterly earnings reports came out last week. Seagate and Teradyne beat expectations but still saw their shares fall. On October 30, $INTC (-1,92 %) l issued a weak outlook for the fourth quarter and plummeted 28.6 percent in a single day. SanDisk $SNDK (-1,57 %) , Marvell $MRVL (-2,22 %) and $AMD (-1,57 %) also saw double-digit declines. In the meantime, on October 28, the Fed kept interest rates at 3.75 to 4.00 percent; two members would have preferred to raise them already.

For a portfolio that, after rebalancing, is invested nearly half in semiconductors and memory

, this was the worst possible month:

📊 Monthly performance: −11.64%

📊 Price as of October 30: €104.23

📊 Performance since inception (March 13): +4.2%

📊 Largest loss since inception: −18.6% (previously −14.6%)

📊 Next rebalancing: Early January 2027

Performance & Comparison 🚀

The Nasdaq fell, the broad indices held steady, and the DAX even gained ground. The model clearly lagged behind this time, falling more than twice as far behind as the Nasdaq.

Performance Comparison (September 30–October 30, 2026, end of day, all as euro-denominated ETFs):

Global Quant 6-Factor: −11.64%

NASDAQ 100: −5.27%

FTSE All-World: −0.52%

S&P 500: +0.25%

DAX: +2.43%

The Wikifolio is now 17.5% below its high of €126.30 on June 22.

Buys & Sales 💶

On October 1, the third rebalancing took place—the largest one yet. 18 stocks out, 18 in, 12 remained.

The model sold all nine banks: Bankinter $BKT (+0,3 %) , Swedbank $SWED A (+0,3 %) , UniCredit $UCG (+0,1 %) , CaixaBank $CABK (+0,45 %) , BBVA $BBVA (+1,02 %) , BPER $BPE (+0,47 %) , Monte dei Paschi $BMPS (+0,84 %) , Banca Mediolanum $BMED (+0,21 %) and HSBC $HSBA (+0,7 %) . Also, Interactive Brokers $IBKR (-0,16 %) , Antofagasta $ANTO (-0,16 %) , Coeur Mining $CDE (-1,31 %) , AppLovin $APP (-0,31 %) , Airtel Africa $AAF (+0,41 %) , Merlin Properties $MRL (+0,43 %) , Solaria $SLR (-0,07 %) , Investor AB $INVE B (+0,29 %) and Pershing Square $PS (+0,22 %) . All were ranked below 40th place. You can see the returns on each position since the purchase on the slides.

It bought six healthcare stocks (Eli Lilly $LLY (+0,33 %) , Bristol-Myers Squibb $BMY (+0,5 %) , Vertex $VRTX (+0,04 %) , Incyte $INCY (+0,21 %) , Illumina $ILMN (+0,35 %) , WuXi AppTec $603259 ) and five semiconductor companies (Seagate $STX (-1,54 %) , Marvell $MRVL (-2,22 %) , Applied Materials $AMAT (-2,72 %) , Teradyne $TER (-1,77 %) , KLA $KLAC (-2,14 %) ). Also included is Fortinet $FTNT (-0,53 %) , CF Industries $CF (-0,64 %) , Marathon Petroleum $MPC (-0,78 %) , APA $APA (-0,23 %) , Pop Mart, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange $HKXCY , and Lion Finance $BGEO (-0,31 %) . Applied Materials and KLA had been sold by the model in July; now they’re back in the portfolio.

After the reshuffle, twelve of the thirty positions were semiconductor and memory stocks, accounting for a combined 44.8% of the portfolio.

Top Movers in October 🟢

The sectors that gained were those unrelated to AI. APA topped the list with +28.95%. The oil company reported preliminary third-quarter results on October 7 and repurchased 10.5 million of its own shares. Eli Lilly rose +24.24%. Third-quarter revenue rose 39 percent to $24.4 billion, driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound, and Lilly raised its full-year revenue forecast to $91 billion to $92 billion.

Marathon Petroleum gained +14.06%, even though the stock fell 7.4% on October 27 along with other refiners. CF Industries rose by +8.54%, Vertex by +8.41%, and Bristol-Myers Squibb by +1.54%. All six have been in the portfolio since October 1.

October’s Worst Performers 🔴

This list consists almost entirely of chip stocks. SanDisk saw the biggest loss at −32.92%; on October 30 alone, it fell by 13.5%. Teradyne dropped −30.60%. The earnings report on October 28 beat expectations, as did the outlook, yet the stock still fell. Seagate (−29.13%) saw the same pattern following its earnings report on October 27. Lam Research fell −26.19%, Marvell by −24.61%. Comfort Systems lost −24.43%. It’s not a chip stock, but the company manufactures climate control and electrical systems for data centers and is thus tied to the same sector. On October 23, following the quarterly earnings report—which did not include a 2027 outlook—the stock dropped about 8 percent in a single day.

Teradyne, Seagate, and Marvell were added to the portfolio on October 1. SanDisk, Lam Research, and Comfort Systems $FIX (-0,6 %) were already in the portfolio and were still among the gainers in September.

What’s in the portfolio now 🔍

Stock prices have fallen. The companies’ financial results look different so far. Key metrics for the 30 positions, each showing the median value as of October 31:

P/E ratio: 24.6

Revenue growth: +21.2%

Earnings per share growth: +48.8%

Net margin: 39.0%

Return on equity: 39.4%

Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.2

With a P/E ratio of 24.6, this portfolio isn’t exactly cheap. However, revenue is growing by one-fifth per year, and debt plays virtually no role. The next earnings season will show whether these figures hold up.

Conclusion 💡

October showed what a 44.8% gain means in this sector. When the sector turns, the entire portfolio turns with it. The pharmaceutical and oil stocks added during the rebalancing performed well, but they couldn’t keep up with the chip stocks. A few weeks ago, I calculated a sector limit. At 20 percent, it reduced the maximum drawdown by 2.1 points, but I haven’t implemented it yet. I don’t tinker with the rules in the middle of a drawdown.

What I want to look into is the timing. Rebalancing always takes place just before earnings season, and this time the earnings reports came out right in the first few weeks after the purchase. I’ll run the numbers to see if this is a real disadvantage or if it just happened to look that way this time before I make any changes.

❓ Question for the community

How did October go for you? Did you also have chips in your portfolio, and did you buy more, sell, or just sit it out?

👇 Share your thoughts in the comments!

➡️ Every month, you’ll find the complete Wikifolio update here—even in bad months—along with research from the model.

🗞️ Newsletter: codeandcapitalquant.beehiiv.com

📈 Wikifolio: https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf0gquant6

$VZ (+0,04 %)
$P911 (+0,46 %)
$NOVN (+0,08 %)
$PYPL (+0,24 %)
$SOFI (-0,39 %)
$UPS (+0,09 %)
$GLW (-1,49 %)
$KO (+0,2 %)
$RCL (+0,02 %)
$NXPI (-1,85 %)
$V (+0,02 %)
$STX (-1,54 %)
$HOOD (-0,91 %)
$SKHY (-0,83 %)
$MBG (-0,31 %)
$DBK (+0,88 %)
$GEV (-0,54 %)
$TER (-1,77 %)
$ADYEN (+0,97 %)
$WM (+0,4 %)
$AIR (+0,02 %)
$GOOGL (+0,02 %)
$CMG (+0,31 %)
$FTNT (-0,53 %)
$NOW (+0,33 %)
$KLAC (-2,14 %)
$MSFT (+0 %)
$CVNA (-0,06 %)
$006400
$VOW3 (+0,37 %)
$BMY (+0,5 %)
$INCY (+0,21 %)
$CAT (-0,22 %)
$N1CL34
$MO (+0,3 %)
$MA (+0,15 %)
$AIXA (+0,53 %)
$LLY (+0,33 %)
$SBUX (-0,15 %)
$RDDT (-1,11 %)
$RBLX (-0,87 %)
$ILMN (+0,35 %)
$SNDK (-1,57 %)
$INTC (-1,92 %)
$MDLZ (+0,14 %)
$COIN (-0,44 %)
$AMZN (-0,01 %)
$TWLO (+0,05 %)
$PINS (+0,29 %)
$285A (-2,44 %)
$CL (-0,67 %)
$GD (+0,12 %)
$ABBV (+0,25 %)
$PUM (+0,54 %)
$CVX (-0,03 %)

In August, gold mines were the market's top performers. In September, they were the most expensive. Fresnillo
$FRES (-0,22 %) down 15 percent, Micron
$MU (-0,5 %) up 17. At the end of the month, the Wikifolio was up 1.03 percent, and one day later, I swapped out 18 of 30 positions.

September was all about interest rates and oil. Brent rose above $100 in the second week and, following a Saudi pipeline outage, briefly hit $110. U.S. inflation stood at 3.4 percent in August. On September 16, the Fed raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, for the first time since July 2023. The 10-year U.S. yield subsequently climbed to 5.19 percent, a level last seen in 2007. This hardly bothered tech stocks. The Nasdaq hit a record high on September 21, and AMD has been worth one trillion dollars ever since. The situation was different in Europe. German inflation jumped to 3.3 percent, and the DAX lost about four percent over the month.

📊 Monthly performance: +1.03%

📊 Price as of September 30: €117.97

📊 Largest loss since inception: −14.6%

📊 Max performance: +18% (since March 13, 26)

Next rebalancing: Early January 2027

Performance & Comparison 🚀

The U.S. indices posted clear gains when calculated in euros, with the Nasdaq leading the way. The Wikifolio did not keep pace. It lagged behind the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and FTSE All-World, and outperformed only the DAX.

Performance Comparison (September 1–30, 2026, end of day):

Global Quant 6-Factor: +1.03%

NASDAQ 100: +4.18%

S&P 500: +2.90%

FTSE All-World: +1.95%

DAX: −4.07%

You can see what caused this in the two lists below. Tech stocks delivered, while mining stocks and a few individual stocks ate up a good chunk of those gains.

Purchases & Sales 💶

None in September itself. The model trades only on four dates per year, and the third was on October 1. What happened then is detailed in its own section below.

Top Movers in September 🟢

The month belonged to semiconductors and memory stocks. Midway through the month, Intel’s CEO said the company could currently only meet about half of the demand for processors. After that, the entire industry picked up steam. Micron
$MU (-0,5 %) topped the list with +16.91%, followed by SanDisk
$SNDK (-1,57 %) at +13.90% and TSMC
$2330 at +11.85%. Lam Research
$LRCX (-2,11 %) rose +11.12%, ASML
$ASML (-0,44 %) +10.06%. In between is Comfort Systems $FIX (-0,6 %) , a stock that has nothing to do with chips, up 10.47%. In August, Comfort Systems was still among the losers.

September’s Big Losers 🔴

Gold and silver declined in September, with silver falling much more sharply. Rising yields and a stronger dollar weighed on prices. Mining stocks followed suit. Fresnillo
$FRES (-0,22 %) lost −14.53%, Coeur Mining
$CDE (-1,31 %) −10.65%, and Endeavour Mining $EDV (-0,63 %) -7.50%. In August, all three were still on the other list with gains of over 25 percent. Merlin Properties fell −8.98%, Airtel Africa
$AAF (+0,41 %) down 7.76%, and Interactive Brokers
$IBKR (-0,16 %) fell by 6.79%.

Rebalancing on October 1 🔄

On October 1, the third rebalancing since the start took place. I swapped out 18 of 30 positions—more than ever before. In July, it was nine.

All nine banks are out: Bankinter
$BKT (+0,3 %) , CaixaBank
$CABK (+0,45 %) , BBVA
$BBVA (+0 %) , UniCredit
$UCG (+0,1 %) , BPER
$BPE (+0,47 %) , Monte dei Paschi $BMPS (+0,84 %) , Banca Mediolanum
$BMED (+0,21 %) , Swedbank$SWED A (+0,3 %) and HSBC
$HSBA (+0,7 %) . In addition, Interactive Brokers $IBKR (-0,16 %) , Antofagasta $ANTO (-0,16 %) , Coeur Mining
$CDE (-1,31 %) , AppLovin
$APP (-0,31 %) , Airtel Africa
$AAF (+0,41 %) , Merlin Properties and Solaria
$SLR (-0,07 %) . Investor AB
$INVE B (+0,29 %) and Pershing Square
$PSH (+0,42 %) are also no longer in the portfolio. So four of the six underperformers listed above are no longer in the portfolio.

Six stocks from the healthcare sector were added: Eli Lilly
$LLY (+0,33 %) , Bristol-Myers
Squibb
$BMY (+0,5 %) , Vertex $VRTX , Incyte
$INCY (+0,21 %) , Illumina
$ILMN (+0,35 %) and WuXi AppTec
$603259 . Five are from the semiconductor and storage sectors: Seagate
$STX (-1,54 %) , Marvell
$MRVL (-2,22 %) , Applied
Materials
$AMAT (-2,72 %), Teradyne
$TER (-1,77 %) and KLA
$KLAC (-2,14 %) . The rest is split among Fortinet
$FTNT (-0,53 %) , CF Industries
$CF (-0,64 %) , Marathon Petroleum
$MPC (-0,78 %) , APA
$APA (-0,23 %) , Pop Mart $9992 (+2,46 %) , Hong Kong Exchanges
$388 (-0,77 %) and Lion Finance
$BGEO (-0,31 %) .

Twelve remain: SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital, Nvidia, Lam Research, TSMC, ASML, Alphabet, Comfort Systems, Fresnillo, Endeavour and Newmont. All six of September’s top movers are included.

Two names stand out. Applied Materials and KLA I sold on July 1, up 92 and a gain of 90 percent. Now both are back in my portfolio. The model doesn’t remember what it has sold in the past. It only looks at where a stock stands in the ranking today.

Conclusion 💡

The portfolio looks different after October 1 than it did before. In September, about 41 percent was still in financial stocks; now there are two positions out of 30. Instead, 12 out of 30 are in semiconductors and memory, and six are in the healthcare sector. There’s no sector limit; the model sorts by score, not by industry. Trading won’t resume until early January.

How was your September? And did you hold onto your stocks after the pullback, or did you sell them? 👇

➡️ Every month, you’ll find the complete Wikifolio update here, along with research in between.

📈 Wikifolio $DE000LS9V052 (-0,56 %)

Alphabet $GOOGL (+0,02 %) exceeded earnings estimates by 214 percent. The stock price then rose by 0.65 percent.

Coeur Mining $CDE (-1,31 %) missed expectations by 54 percent during the same period. The stock rose 11 percent.

Since the end of May, I’ve had every quarterly earnings report from my stock universe automatically recorded, along with the stock price reaction the following day. A total of 122 reports were collected between May 27 and August 20. This isn’t a simulation; the data was collected as events unfolded.

The common assumption goes like this: A company beats estimates—that’s good news—so the stock price rises. None of these three steps holds true.

1️⃣ Almost all beat estimates

112 out of 122 were above expectations. That’s 91.8 percent. Ten missed.

The rate says nothing about the companies. It says something about the estimates. Analysts lower their forecasts in the weeks leading up to the earnings release because the companies prepare them accordingly. What’s left is a bar that practically everyone clears. Anyone who reads “exceeded expectations” has learned about as much as they would from the news that a train departed on time.

2️⃣ The stock price falls anyway

Of the 112 companies that beat estimates, the stock price fell in 65 cases—that’s 58 percent.

On average, the reaction after a “beat” was a decline of 0.03 percent, and after a “miss,” an increase of 0.53 percent. The median shows the same pattern: -0.47 versus -0.28. Both figures are close to zero, so I wouldn’t base a trading rule on them. With only ten misses, the second figure is insignificant anyway. But the trend is consistent in both calculations.

3️⃣ Even a big surprise doesn’t help

It might seem obvious that two percent above the estimate isn’t enough and that a real outlier is needed. The correlation between the magnitude of the surprise and the price reaction is minus 0.042. That’s just noise. Alphabet $GOOGL (+0,02 %) 214 percent above estimates, stock price up 0.65. Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD 154 percent above estimates, stock up 1.44. Centene $CNC (-0,64 %) 133 percent above estimate, price down 1.59. Intel $INTC (-1,92 %) 95 percent above estimates, down 7.89.

There’s movement, but it’s coming from elsewhere

NetApp rose $NTAP (-0,27 %) up 22.4 percent, Teradyne $TER (-1,77 %) up 14.4 percent, and Seagate $STX (-1,54 %) up 11.4 percent. On the downside, Reddit $RDDT (-1,11 %) was down 21.0 percent, Ciena $CIEN (-1,01 %) down 8.9 percent, Broadcom $AVGO (-1 %) down 7.9 percent, and Apple $AAPL (-0,02 %) down 7.4.

These are double-digit daily movements. Reddit $RDDT (-1,11 %) beat estimates by 30 percent and lost a fifth of its value. Broadcom $AVGO (-1 %) was 1.7 percent above estimates and lost nearly 8 percent. The number in the headline doesn’t explain any of these movements. It’s about the outlook, margins, and a statement in the earnings call.

What it isn’t

Three months constitute an earnings season, not a cycle. In a period of falling earnings, the 92 percent rate would likely look different. I measure only the day after the announcement, not the two weeks that follow. My universe consists of large-cap stocks from fourteen indices; with small-cap stocks, things can play out differently. I’ll keep collecting data; in a year, I’ll have four quarters.

For me, this means: Anyone who buys after a report because expectations were exceeded is reacting to information that everyone has and that almost always comes to pass. The reverse scenario is more interesting—when a stock price reacts strongly even though the numbers were unremarkable. That means there’s something else in the report.

❓ Do any of you deliberately trade around earnings reports? And does anyone have an explanation for why misses, on average, fare better than beats?

👇 Leave your thoughts in the comments!

➡️ I do analyses like this regularly; in between, I post the monthly Wikifolio update.

🗞️ Newsletter: codeandcapitalquant.beehiiv.com

📈 Wikifolio: https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf0gquant6

Not investment advice; based on my own research. Past performance is not indicative of future results.