Alphabet $GOOGL (-3,06 %) exceeded earnings estimates by 214 percent. The stock price then rose by 0.65 percent.

Coeur Mining $CDE (-8,07 %) missed expectations by 54 percent during the same period. The stock rose 11 percent.

Since the end of May, I’ve had every quarterly earnings report from my stock universe automatically recorded, along with the stock price reaction the following day. A total of 122 reports were collected between May 27 and August 20. This isn’t a simulation; the data was collected as events unfolded.

The common assumption goes like this: A company beats estimates—that’s good news—so the stock price rises. None of these three steps holds true.

1️⃣ Almost all beat estimates

112 out of 122 were above expectations. That’s 91.8 percent. Ten missed.

The rate says nothing about the companies. It says something about the estimates. Analysts lower their forecasts in the weeks leading up to the earnings release because the companies prepare them accordingly. What’s left is a bar that practically everyone clears. Anyone who reads “exceeded expectations” has learned about as much as they would from the news that a train departed on time.

2️⃣ The stock price falls anyway

Of the 112 companies that beat estimates, the stock price fell in 65 cases—that’s 58 percent.

On average, the reaction after a “beat” was a decline of 0.03 percent, and after a “miss,” an increase of 0.53 percent. The median shows the same pattern: -0.47 versus -0.28. Both figures are close to zero, so I wouldn’t base a trading rule on them. With only ten misses, the second figure is insignificant anyway. But the trend is consistent in both calculations.

3️⃣ Even a big surprise doesn’t help

It might seem obvious that two percent above the estimate isn’t enough and that a real outlier is needed. The correlation between the magnitude of the surprise and the price reaction is minus 0.042. That’s just noise. Alphabet $GOOGL (-3,06 %) 214 percent above estimates, stock price up 0.65. Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD 154 percent above estimates, stock up 1.44. Centene $CNC (+2 %) 133 percent above estimate, price down 1.59. Intel $INTC (-8,67 %) 95 percent above estimates, down 7.89.

There’s movement, but it’s coming from elsewhere

NetApp rose $NTAP (-1,59 %) up 22.4 percent, Teradyne $TER (-11,83 %) up 14.4 percent, and Seagate $STX (-12,36 %) up 11.4 percent. On the downside, Reddit $RDDT (-2,91 %) was down 21.0 percent, Ciena $CIEN (-10,87 %) down 8.9 percent, Broadcom $AVGO (-3,58 %) down 7.9 percent, and Apple $AAPL (+1,43 %) down 7.4.

These are double-digit daily movements. Reddit $RDDT (-2,91 %) beat estimates by 30 percent and lost a fifth of its value. Broadcom $AVGO (-3,58 %) was 1.7 percent above estimates and lost nearly 8 percent. The number in the headline doesn’t explain any of these movements. It’s about the outlook, margins, and a statement in the earnings call.

What it isn’t

Three months constitute an earnings season, not a cycle. In a period of falling earnings, the 92 percent rate would likely look different. I measure only the day after the announcement, not the two weeks that follow. My universe consists of large-cap stocks from fourteen indices; with small-cap stocks, things can play out differently. I’ll keep collecting data; in a year, I’ll have four quarters.

For me, this means: Anyone who buys after a report because expectations were exceeded is reacting to information that everyone has and that almost always comes to pass. The reverse scenario is more interesting—when a stock price reacts strongly even though the numbers were unremarkable. That means there’s something else in the report.

❓ Do any of you deliberately trade around earnings reports? And does anyone have an explanation for why misses, on average, fare better than beats?

👇 Leave your thoughts in the comments!

➡️ I do analyses like this regularly; in between, I post the monthly Wikifolio update.

🗞️ Newsletter: codeandcapitalquant.beehiiv.com

📈 Wikifolio: https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf0gquant6

Not investment advice; based on my own research. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hello, everyone,

The company I’m introducing to you today seems largely unaffected by the current correction in AI stocks.

Investors here seem to have realized that data is undoubtedly the new gold of the digital age.

What are your thoughts on this, everyone? And what’s your take on this company?

Today, data is no longer passive. It’s not just a box, a system, or a location. Data has remarkable power. It drives possibilities. And above all, data drives companies day in and day out—everywhere.

Companies are solving the world’s toughest challenges—thanks to the intelligent use of data. NetApp’s strategy for intelligent data infrastructure isn’t just about where data is located. Data has evolved into the proven foundation for AI, hybrid cloud, and enterprise workloads: the NetApp® Data Platform. Intelligent at every level. Connected to the largest public clouds. Resilient and the most secure.

It is the foundation that unlocks human and business potential. Because when data becomes intelligent, something greater happens.

It accelerates ideas. It inspires people. It sparks breakthroughs.

When companies unlock the full potential of their data, they shape the future they create.

That’s NetApp.

$NTAP (-1,59 %)

Company Overview

For more than three decades, NetApp has been helping the world’s leading organizations navigate change—from the rise of enterprise storage to the intelligent era shaped by data and AI. Today, NetApp is the intelligent data infrastructure company that helps customers transform data into a catalyst for innovation, resilience, and growth.

At the heart of this infrastructure is the NetApp Data Platform—the unified, enterprise-wide, intelligent foundation that connects, protects, and empowers data across every cloud, workload, and environment. Built on the proven performance of NetApp ONTAP, the leading data management software and operating system, and enhanced by automation through the AI Data Engine and AFX, it delivers observability, resilience, and intelligence at scale.

Designed with separation in mind, the NetApp data platform decouples storage, services, and control, enabling organizations to modernize faster, scale efficiently, and innovate without lock-in. As the only enterprise storage platform natively embedded in the world’s largest clouds, it gives organizations the freedom to run any workload anywhere with consistent performance, governance, and protection.

With NetApp, data is always ready—ready to defend against threats, ready to power AI, and ready to drive the next breakthrough. That’s why the world’s most forward-thinking companies trust NetApp to turn intelligence into advantages.

NetApp, Inc. specializes in the development, manufacture, and marketing of equipment for managing and storing network data. Net revenue is broken down by product and service groups as follows:

- Product revenue (46.1%): file, cache, and storage servers, as well as software for data management, content distribution, and information synthesis;

- Support services (38.1%): consulting, maintenance, technical support, and training services;

- Cloud services (9.9%): cloud storage and data management services;

- Professional services (5.9%).

Net revenue is distributed geographically as follows: Americas (50.6%), Europe/Middle East/Africa (34.1%), and Asia/Pacific (15.3%).

Number of employees: 11,700

NetApp – The Quiet Beneficiary of AI’s Data Hunger with a “Low Cheat” Setup

NetApp (NTAP) is drawing investors’ attention thanks to the AI wave. Founded in Silicon Valley in 1992, the company is one of the pioneers of data storage.

Its business model is based on intelligent data infrastructure for enterprises. Its primary source of revenue is all-flash storage systems—that is, exceptionally fast storage based on flash chips. In addition, the company offers public cloud services that are deeply integrated into the platforms of Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. Finally, there is a subscription model for storage-as-a-service called “Keystone.”

Currently, the market is focusing on the following trend: Following billions in investments in graphics processing units, data infrastructure is taking center stage as the next phase of the AI boom. After all, AI models are only as good as the data they access. Companies must first organize their scattered data sets and make them readily available before AI can operate productively. In addition, for data protection reasons, many companies are turning to hybrid solutions combining their own data centers with the cloud—which is precisely NetApp’s core business.

The company’s main competitors are Dell Technologies and Everpure (formerly Pur Storage).

The most recent quarterly results, released on May 28, 2026, exceeded expectations: Revenue rose 12% year-over-year to $1.95 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.43, exceeding analysts’ estimates. For fiscal year 2027, management is projecting revenue of $7.33 to $7.58 billion. This corresponds to growth of approximately 8%. In addition, the share buyback program was increased by $1 billion. These figures sent the markets soaring.

Data Innovation Story

This visualization represents the depth and breadth of NetApp’s global customer base, each of which uses its most important resource—its data—to innovate for the future.

Insights from Data

This abstract representation depicts data in the wild: isolated, heterogeneous, unstructured. With an intelligent data infrastructure, you can transform your data into a strategic advantage and gain insights that reveal previously unrecognized connections.

Data Mobility

This abstract illustration represents the importance of data mobility in increasing storage efficiency. Mobilizing your data allows you to pursue your own unique data strategy and store your data efficiently.

Data Security Story

This abstraction stands for data security, availability, and resilience, and underscores our focus on helping you prevent data loss and downtime, regardless of where your data is located.

NetApp Corporate PowerPoint Presentation

The company is expected to release its earnings report soon das erste Quartal 2027 . Ahead of the event, analysts expect the company’s diluted earnings per share 1,70 US-Dollar betragen , representing a 42.9% increase from $1.19 in the same quarter a year ago. The company has met or exceeded Wall Street’s EPS estimates for the past four quarters.

NEWS

July 22, 2026

StructureCraft skaliert datengetriebenes Design auf NetApp

Weiterlesen

July 16, 2026

NetApp übernimmt DataPelago und macht Daten auf der Infrastrukturebene KI-reif

Weiterlesen

NetApp und Cisco beschleunigen und sichern KI-Innovation

• Download

June 3, 2026

Die Zusammenarbeit zwischen NetApp und Cisco stärkt die Defense in Depth für die Cyber-Resilienz von Unternehmen

• Download

April 22, 2026

NetApp arbeitet mit Google Cloud zusammen, um KI-gesteuerte Abläufe einzuführen

• Download

March 24, 2026

NetApp und Commvault fördern Cyber-Resilienz mit einer strategischen Allianz

• Download, NetApp und Commvault fördern Cyber-Resilienz mit Strategic Alliance, 24. März 2026, (öffnet in neuem Fenster)

March 24, 2026

NetApp und Elastio kündigen Partnerschaft zur Bereitstellung von Verteidigungs-in-Depth-Ransomware-Widerstandsfähigkeit an

• Download, NetApp und Elastio kündigen Partnerschaft zur Bereitstellung von Defense-in-Depth-Ransomware-Resilienz an, 24. März 2026, (öffnet in neuem Fenster)

March 17, 2026

NetApp stellt neue Hochleistungsmodelle der EF-Serie vor.

• Download, NetApp stellt neue Hochleistungsmodelle der EF-Serie vor, 17. März 2026, (öffnet in neuem Fenster)

March 16, 2026

NetApp beschleunigt den Schwung in der KI-Führung mit NVIDIA

• Download

Universität zu Köln: Kundenreferenz

Universität zu Köln erneuert Datacenter-Infrastruktur mit FlexPod von NetApp und Cisco

Juan’s Take on NetApp’s Financial Metrics for 2025–2029

(short, clear, precise—just as Juan would write it for you in the deck)

NetApp presents an astonishingly clean, almost “textbook” profile of a mature yet highly profitable tech player. Revenue is growing moderately, but EBIT and net income are growing faster than revenue every year —a sign of genuine operational leverage. The FCF remains impressively stable, with margins well above 20%.

The net debt falls deep into negative territory, making NetApp a cash machine. ROE is absurdly highbecause the company uses capital extremely efficiently.

For Juan, this is a “quality compounder”, not a hyper-grower—but one that delivers reliably year after year, maintains margins, generates cash, and minimizes risks.

In short:

“NetApp isn’t a sprint—it’s a precise, profitable endurance run. Stable, high-margin, cash-rich. A company you’re happy to have on your team.”

Juan’s Quick Take (concise, clear, perfect for your deck)

NetApp’s valuation profile is getting cleaner and more attractive every year. The dividend is rising steadily, while the yield is falling slightly—a sign that the stock price is rising faster than the dividend.

The P/E ratio is falling significantly toward 2028as earnings surge. Particularly noteworthy: EPS is growing by over 35% in 2028, which alleviates valuation pressure.

The PEG falls over the years, which shows:

“The market is paying more—but is also getting more growth.”

For Juan, this is a classic value stockthat will reach a true valuation sweet spot in 2028: high earnings growth + falling P/E ratio = attractive valuation window.

Performance

1 week +5.36%

1 month +11.38%

6 months +69.99%

1 year +61.81%

3 years +117.05%

July 29, 2026, 2:58:59 PM •

gettex (EUR)

153.56 EUR

July 28, 2026, 10:00:00 PM •

Nasdaq (USD)

174.53 USD

$NTAP (-1,59 %)

Hello everyone,

I have held Pure Storage $PSTG (-7,81 %) in my portfolio for some time now and am considering adding to my position again and would like to share my thoughts with you. Perhaps it will help some of you in your decision-making process.

A look back at why Pure Storage became big in the first place...

Pure Storage is basically the classic disruptor. When they started in 2009, the industry laughed at them because they were fully committed to flash storage while everyone else was still relying on the cheaper but slower mechanical hard disks.

However, their biggest highlight was not just the hardware, but the business model.

With the "Evergreen" concept, they solved a huge problem for IT departments: replacing old hardware.

With Pure, you buy once and only replace the computing modules via a subscription, while the data stays where it is. This has earned them an extremely loyal customer base and has put the competition such as Dell $DELL (-7,75 %) or NetApp $NTAP (-1,59 %) look old for years - to put it bluntly....

How will things look at the end of 2025?

The latest figures from December show a stable picture, even if the stock market has reacted nervously as usual. Turnover is growing at a double-digit rate of 16%, which is not unusual for the industry.

What impresses me more, however, is the shift towards the service business. Almost half of the turnover now comes from subscriptions (SaaS - Storage-as-a-Service).

Financially, the company is a real fortress. They have around 1.5 billion dollars in cash and practically no debt.

The current share buyback program has now been impressively increased again.

The gross margins of over 70 % also underline the fact that they don't have to fight price battles, but can assert their technology as a premium product.

And what could the near future look like?

For 2026, I see three decisive points that could drive the course.

1. AI infrastructure:

The partnership with Nvidia is not a marketing stunt. AI models need extremely fast access to data. With the new FlashBlade systems, Pure delivers exactly what data centers need for training LLMs.

2. the energy factor:

This is often underestimated. Pure systems require up to 85% less power than conventional storage. In times of exploding electricity costs in data centers, this has become a tough selling point.

3. hyperscalers:

The fact that one of the really big cloud providers is now relying on Pure technology is an accolade. If others follow suit, we will be talking about completely different revenue dimensions. We don't know who it is yet, but it will be Microsoft $MSFT (-1,94 %) or Meta $META (-11,37 %) tipped

Is the share cheap? No, I don't think so. The market has already priced in the positive developments.

But my experience so far has often shown that the supposedly "expensive" shares have performed better than the undervalued ones.

And since I already have them in my portfolio with a double-digit plus, I can easily withstand the volatility 🤑🤞🏼

Earnings times today (+6h for CEST) ⏰

$NVDA (-4,41 %)

$CRWD (-1,03 %)

$CRM (+2,71 %)

$AFRM (-1,86 %)

$OKTA (-3,88 %)

$FIVE (+0,95 %)

$PSTG (-7,81 %)

$HPQ (+7,8 %)

$NTAP (-1,59 %)

$VEEV (+0,95 %)

$NTNX (-0,72 %)

$VSCO (-0,67 %)

$APLD (-10,92 %)

$IREN (-9,27 %)

Real-time results & analysis: https://t.me/Aktien_Stammtisch

These are the current downgrades🟥 on this Monday, September September 18, 2023.

• 
  $DBX
  William Blair downgrades from "Outperform" to "Market Perform" 🟥

• $FRT
  Mizuho Securities downgrades from "Buy" to "Neutral", with a price target of $101 (previously $105). 🟥

• 
  $GPN (+2,96 %)
  Redburn-Atlantic downgraded from "Neutral" to "Sell", with a price target of $105. 🟥

• -$NTAP (-1,59 %)
  William Blair downgrades from "Outperform" to "Market Perform" downgrade.🟥

• 
  $OCFC
  DA Davidson downgrades from "Buy" to "Neutral", with a price target of $17 (previously $21).🟥

• 
  $PAY (-1,73 %)
  Baird downgrades from "Outperform" to "Neutral", with a price target of $18 (previously $16).🟥

• 
  $PLNT (+3,19 %)
  Jefferies downgrades from "Buy" to "Hold", with a price target of $56 (previously $90).🟥

• $PTCT (+0,81 %)
  Citi downgrades from "Buy" to "Neutral", with a price target of $29 (previously $55).🟥

• 
  $PYPL (+0,4 %)
  MoffettNathanson downgrades from "Outperform" to "Market Perform", with a price target of $75 (previously $115).🟥

• $VFC (+1,77 %)
  Piper Sandler downgrades from "Overweight" to "Neutral", with a price target of $20 (previously $28).🟥

Simply runs