$LAC (+1,63 %) Yesterday, it closed the massive upward gap from September and is now more oversold on the daily chart than it has been in two years (RSI 22). I expect a rebound here soon. That would also make sense, since the sector as a whole has recently been heavily sold off. I’ve bought 1,000 shares. The trade is tightly hedged. If the price sustainably falls below the 4.50 CAD range, I’ll sell them off again.
Lithium Americas
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Discussion sur LAC
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6Why the Iran war is affecting lithium
$ALB (+1 %)
$LAC (+1,63 %)
$SLI (+0,74 %)
My dears, I remain invested in Albemarle.
In short, the Iran war is driving lithium prices significantly higher because geopolitical risks, supply chain disruptions and the strategic importance of the metal are increasing massively. The fear of shortages and the use of lithium as geopolitical leverage is having a particularly strong impact.
🔍 Why the Iran war is affecting lithium
🌍 1. geopolitical uncertainty → price shock
- The price of lithium has risen sharply since the escalation began: +130 % over the year and +12 % in the last month. This correlates directly with the military tensions and concerns about blockades of important trade routes.
🚢 2. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
- Although the Strait of Hormuz is not a major route for lithium, it is a critical route for energy and global trade.
- The blockade leads to massive disruption to global tradewhich also makes the transportation of other raw materials more expensive and slower.
🛡️ 3. Lithium becomes a defense raw material
- In 2026, lithium is no longer just a battery raw material, but a strategic strategic defense commodity.
- Military demand (drones, energy storage, mobile systems) is increasing - and with it prices.
🇮🇷 4. Iran claims large lithium reserves
- Iran speaks of 8.5 million tons of lithium reserves.
- In a conflict scenario, this can be used as political leverage similar to oil in previous crises.
🔗 5. supply chain stress due to energy crisis
- The war leads to extreme oil and gas priceswhich makes the entire extraction of raw materials more expensive - including lithium mining and transportation.
📈 What does this mean for lithium investors?
In the short term
- Extremely high volatility
- Prices react sensitively to every headline from the Middle East
- Lithium shares benefit disproportionately
Medium term
- Sustained high prices likelyas long as the conflict remains unresolved
- Military demand + energy transition = structurally increasing demand
- Risk: Should Iran actually develop large reserves, this could have a dampening effect in the long term
Long-term
- New geopolitical alliances could reorganize the lithium market
- Countries without their own deposits (EU, Japan, South Korea) will expand strategic partnerships
- Diversification of supply chains (Chile, Australia, Canada, Africa) will be accelerated
🧭 Conclusion for you
The Iran war acts as a catalyst for lithium: higher prices, greater strategic importance, higher volatility. For investors, this means opportunities - but also geopolitical risks that need to be actively managed.
Our Biggest Investing Misses of 2025, Part 1:
thread... share yours ;-)
We all have them - those opportunities that sting because the setup was right there, but we hesitated, overrode, or timed it wrong. Sharing our top 5-10 from 2025 with charts, rationale, and lessons. Pure growth, no ego.
What’s YOUR biggest investing miss or hardest lesson this year?
Reply below More misses coming if you want them! #Investing
#Markets2025
#LessonsLearned
- $TLO / $TLOFF Strong signal at ~$0.055 - massive volume breakout + perfect momentum (chart below). We ignored our own system and followed external advice. Result: Missed a huge run. Lesson: Trust our process over outside noise. Always. Ever ignored your gut/signal and regretted it? Chart below.
- $LAC Our deep lithium dive ranked it top 3 with strong fundamentals. We allocated to $ALB & $SQM instead (better insider buying + diversification bet). Hindsight: $LAC massively outperformed. Lesson: High-conviction thematics deserve real sizing - don’t over-diversify away the winners.
- $CRV & $BONK Discretionary buys chasing rotation - directly against our system signals. Risk management on Oct 10th saved us from worse, but still closed red. Lesson: FOMO overrides kill edge over time. Discipline > anticipation.
- $RGTZ & $IONZ (leveraged short vehicles) Early Nov entry nailed the drop - peaked +80% and +50% unrealized. Decay + volatility bleed erased it all. Closed breakeven/loss. Lesson: Daily-reset leveraged products demand ruthless timing. Decay is brutal.
What’s your toughest timing or leverage lesson of 2025? More misses 5, 6... and on + charts dropping in replies as we go.
Appreciate everyone sharing below / or DM if you have questions.
Follow for regular portfolio breakdowns, thematic ideas, and real-time lessons as we build into the next cycle. What’s one rule you’re tightening for 2026? Let’s talk!
first chart: TLO - we missed this move :-(
Quartalszahlen 03.11.25-07.11.15
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🚨 Morgan Stanley just dropped a list of 39 “National Security” stocks
This isn’t your typical watchlist — it’s a who’s who of the companies the U.S. needs to stay ahead in energy, defense, and AI supply chains.
Let’s break it down 👇
⚛️ Nuclear Energy & Uranium:
The U.S. wants energy independence — and that means uranium.
Names like $UUUU (+0,55 %) , $LEU (+3,1 %) , $CCO (-0,56 %) , and $NXE (+0,67 %) are at the center of the nuclear revival. Even micro-reactor plays like $OKLO are making noise as America rebuilds its atomic backbone.
🔋 Batteries & Energy Storage:
$TSLA (+0,16 %) is still here, but the real upside could come from lesser-knowns like $AMPX (next-gen lithium-ion) and $MVST (+1,4 %) (solid-state tech).
These are the quiet enablers of the EV and grid storage boom — and every megawatt stored is national security now.
🪨 Rare Earths & Strategic Metals:
China controls 70%+ of this market — and the U.S. wants out.
Morgan Stanley highlights $MP (+0,11 %) , $CRML (+1,82 %) , $IVN (+1,35 %) , and $WPM (+0,16 %) as key players in securing rare earth supply chains critical for chips, missiles, and EVs.
⚡ Lithium:
Without lithium, there is no clean energy transition.
Watch $ALB (+1 %) , $LAC (+1,63 %) , $SGML (-0,24 %) , and $SLI (+0,74 %) — these are the lifelines for the world’s next battery superpowers.
💡 The takeaway:
This “National Security Index” isn’t just about defense — it’s about control of the future’s raw power: energy, data, and materials.
And the firms on this list aren’t just suppliers — they’re the gatekeepers of U.S. sovereignty in a world of rising geopolitical tension.
If you’re betting on where the big government money flows next… this might be your roadmap.
Interesting video on a long-shot investment into $LAC (+1,63 %) investment who has the rights to extract the largest lithium deposit in the world.
I am waiting for the right signal if they will be succesful in pulling through or will need to sell parts of their rights.
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