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10Trump - the best sales guy the European defense industry has ever had.
Speaking of fighter aircraft: did I already mention that Saab ($SAAB B (+3,17 %)) not only has its own platforms such as the Gripen fighter jet, but is also involved in the modernization of the European Eurofighter ($AIR (+3,09 %) - $LDO (+5,06 %) - $BA. (+2,29 %)) fleets and the construction of the upcoming latest "Eurofighter EK" models?
It's time for Kötbullar again.
Minimizing the US cluster risk is currently a major topic for investors. It is perhaps even THE topic since the second Trump administration has been throwing tariffs and isolationist positions around.
As part of an incipient reallocation in the portfolio $DFEN (+3,23 %) and $ASWC (+2,52 %) recently, but was bothered by the high proportion of US shares and the heavy weighting of Blackbox $PLTR (+4,09 %) among others.
Today I stumbled across the recently launched ETF from WisdomTree, which compiles purely European defense companies: $IE0002Y8CX98 (+3,52 %)
Some quick raw data:
Listed for the first time on 3/4/2025
TER: 0.4% p.a.
Physical
Accumulating
WKN: A40Y9K
IE0002Y8CX98
Largest positions:
Rheinmetall (approx. 20%) $RHM (+4,92 %) 🇩🇪
Leonardo (approx. 15%) $LDO (+5,06 %) 🇮🇹
Saab (approx. 10%) $SAAB B (+3,17 %) 🇸🇪
BAE (approx. 10%) $BAE (+0 %) 🇬🇧
Thales (approx. 9%) $THALES (+0,01 %) 🇫🇷
This investor will reallocate a little. He is not giving investment advice, but rather enjoying the diversity of Europe. 🇪🇺
Sources:
https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/etfs/thematic/wdef---wisdomtree-europe-defence-ucits-etf---eur-acc
https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/strategies/european-defence
https://www.justetf.com/de/etf-profile.html?isin=IE0002Y8CX98#chart
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Saab
$SAAB B (+3,17 %) in collaboration with the Swedish Air Force and the Swedish Defense Materiel Administration (FMV), has developed an innovative counter-unmanned aircraft system (C-UAS) - called "Loke" was developed and successfully tested. Named after the Norse god of SchabernacksThis system serves to effectively detect and combat enemy drones and represents a significant advance in the flexible defense against such threats.
Thanks to its compact and modular design and the use of proven components, which are already in use on ships and boats such as the Combat Boat 90 Swedish Navy, the costs per unit are also likely to be limited. These circumstances also facilitate and accelerate short-term production in large quantities.
In a nutshell:
With "Loke", Saab demonstrates the ability to provide effective and modern drone defense solutions in a short time.
Source: SAAB Pressemitteilung
#saab
#rüstung
#rüstungsindustrie
#drohnen
#defense $IE0002Y8CX98
+ 1
It seems like my post about Europas F-35-Sicherheitsdilemma could not have come at a better time:
Dependence on US armaments is increasingly perceived as a risk factor for Europe's military and security sovereignty and is now being publicly addressed at the highest political level faster than I would have expected.
French President Emmanuel Macron
President of France Emmanuel Macron has made it clear in an interview with Le Parisien that he is critical of Europe's purchase and use of US armaments and proposed replacing them with European alternatives.
Macron was also quite clear: "Those who buy Patriot systems should be offered the next generation of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy F-35s should be offered the Rafale fighter aircraft."
His main concern is greater strategic autonomy for Europe:
Macron is thus sending a clear signal for more European cooperation in the defense sector and against an excessive focus on US technology.
#emmanuelmacron
#usa
#defense
#verteidigung
#rüstungsindustrie
#europa
$R3NK (+4,24 %)
$IE0002Y8CX98 (+3,52 %)
$HAG (+3,54 %)
With Canada the next NATO partner is now looking for alternatives to the US fighter jet F-35 ($LMT (-0,56 %) ) and is examining various models such as the Gripen ($SAAB B (+3,17 %) ) or the Eurofighter ($AIR (+3,09 %)
$BA. (+2,29 %)
$LDO (+5,06 %)
$MTX (+3,69 %) ). The background to this is not only financial aspects - technical requirements and geopolitical considerations also play a role. At the same time, there are questions about maintenance costs and military independence from the USA. With its decision, Canada is setting the course for new international cooperation. This opens up exciting opportunities for the European aerospace industry.
In my opinion, Saab's Gripen currently has the best chance of becoming Canada's newest fighter jet. The concept of the Swedes, especially in terms of range, price/performance, maintenance and usability (optimized for use in Canadian latitudes; for take-off and landing on regular roads in remote regions and service there with small teams) fits like a glove to the Canadian aviator's eye. Canada also has the opportunity to produce the Saab Gripen in its own country.
Source: https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Kanada-sucht-nach-Alternativen-zum-US-Kampfjet-F-35-article25632225.html
First countries reconsider their orders, Portugal has now canceled, Turkey now wants Eurofighters. Eurofighter, Gripen and Rafale as alternatives.
In Europe, and particularly among the USA's NATO partners, uncertainty about political and military relations between the USA under Donald Trump and Europe has been growing steadily since his inauguration in January 2025. Trump's statements and especially his actions in recent weeks have shown unmistakably that the USA is no longer a reliable partner for Europe (and presumably also NATO) and does not want to be.
Especially those European countries that, in response to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin $LMT (-0,56 %) worth well over 250 billion euros are now faced with a critical dilemma:
Technically, Europe's F-35 fleets can be deactivated by the US at any time, as each aircraft relies on US-controlled launch codes and proprietary US communication and navigation systems (see also the deactivation of Ukrainian HIMARS systems (from Lockheed Martin $LMT (-0,56 %) ) in the last few days. Source: Tagesspiegel, March 2025). In the event of a crisis, the USA could practically paralyze the European air forces or at least prohibit missions. The USA had already done this with Egyptian F-16 fighter jets in 2014. (Source: T-Online, February 2025)
Since 2022, 12 European countries have ordered around 550 F-35 fighter jets (in different variants and versions):
The first countries are already taking action: Portugal recently announced that it was halting the planned procurement of F-35 fighter jets and looking at European alternatives instead.
"The Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo has announced that the country will not purchase F-35 fighter jets from the United States in view of the current geopolitical situation and the unpredictability of US policy. Instead, alternatives from European production will also be considered." (Source: Poder Aéreo, March 2025)
Turkey also recently received a concrete offer for 40 Eurofighter jets from Airbus $AIR (+3,09 %) BAE Systems $BA. (+2,29 %) and Leonardo $LDO (+5,06 %) - a clear sign of distancing itself from the USA.
"Turkey plans to procure a total of 40 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 4 fighter jets in the form of 20+20. All Tranche 4 jets, which represent the most advanced Typhoon configuration for air-to-air combat, will be newly produced.
However, Ankara can also procure a number of used Typhoons for training purposes. This possibility is also currently under discussion." (Source: Al-Monitor, March 2025).
If other European countries follow these examples, European fighter aircraft manufacturers could benefit considerably. Now, fighter aircraft are not of-the-shelf products that are mass-produced (with the exception of the F-35, unfortunately). Germany primarily opted for the F-35 because only the F-35 can be equipped with the nuclear weapons stationed in Germany (the use of nuclear weapons stationed in Germany - even just transportation from A to B - requires joint technical approval by Germany and the USA).
In my opinion, Gripen (Saab $SAAB B (+3,17 %) ) and Eurofighter (Airbus $AIR (+3,09 %) BAE Systems $BA. (+2,29 %) Leonardo $LDO (+5,06 %) MTU Aero Engines $MTX (+3,69 %) etc) would be the most attractive alternatives in the short term. The Saab Gripen has an almost unbeatable price-performance ratio (especially thanks to the low service and maintenance costs) and the infrastructure for Eurofighter is already solidly developed. Dassault Aviation $AM (+1,84 %) (Rafale) should of course not be underestimated either, but I see it in 3rd place.
I can well imagine that this costly security dilemma is currently being hotly debated in Europe's defense ministries and that exit strategies are already being evaluated. I can also imagine that European buyers of the F-35 are holding on to their canceled orders as leverage in case Trump imposes even more dramatic punitive tariffs or even escalates to a whole new level. In addition to the orders for F-35s, the Europeans are also likely to be reviewing their orders for HIMARS and the like.
However, one thing is already clear to the Europeans: Europe must become sovereign as quickly as possible - in terms of security policy, economy and technology - and can no longer rely on the USA. After Portugal and probably also Turkey, I expect more F-35 dominoes to fall in the near future.
Sources:
First countries reconsider their orders, Portugal has now canceled, Turkey now wants Eurofighters. Eurofighter, Gripen and Rafale as alternatives.
In Europe, and particularly among the USA's NATO partners, uncertainty about political and military relations between the USA under Donald Trump and Europe has been growing steadily since his inauguration in January 2025. Trump's statements and especially his actions in recent weeks have shown unmistakably that the USA is no longer a reliable partner for Europe (and presumably also NATO) and does not want to be.
Especially those European countries that, in response to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin $LMT (-0,56 %) worth well over 250 billion euros are now faced with a critical dilemma:
Technically, Europe's F-35 fleets can be deactivated by the US at any time, as each aircraft relies on US-controlled launch codes and proprietary US communication and navigation systems (see also the deactivation of Ukrainian HIMARS systems (from Lockheed Martin $LMT (-0,56 %) ) in the last few days. Source: Tagesspiegel, March 2025). In the event of a crisis, the USA could practically paralyze the European air forces or at least prohibit missions. The USA had already done this with Egyptian F-16 fighter jets in 2014. (Source: T-Online, February 2025)
Since 2022, 12 European countries have ordered around 550 F-35 fighter jets (in different variants and versions):
The first countries are already taking action: Portugal recently announced that it was halting the planned procurement of F-35 fighter jets and looking at European alternatives instead.
"The Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo has announced that the country will not purchase F-35 fighter jets from the United States in view of the current geopolitical situation and the unpredictability of US policy. Instead, alternatives from European production will also be considered." (Source: Poder Aéreo, March 2025)
Turkey also recently received a concrete offer for 40 Eurofighter jets from Airbus $AIR (+3,09 %) BAE Systems $BA. (+2,29 %) and Leonardo $LDO (+5,06 %) - a clear sign of distancing itself from the USA.
"Turkey plans to procure a total of 40 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 4 fighter jets in the form of 20+20. All Tranche 4 jets, which represent the most advanced Typhoon configuration for air-to-air combat, will be newly produced.
However, Ankara can also procure a number of used Typhoons for training purposes. This possibility is also currently under discussion." (Source: Al-Monitor, March 2025).
If other European countries follow these examples, European fighter aircraft manufacturers could benefit considerably. Now, fighter aircraft are not of-the-shelf products that are mass-produced (with the exception of the F-35, unfortunately). Germany primarily opted for the F-35 because only the F-35 can be equipped with the nuclear weapons stationed in Germany (the use of nuclear weapons stationed in Germany - even just transportation from A to B - requires joint technical approval by Germany and the USA).
In my opinion, Gripen (Saab $SAAB B (+3,17 %) ) and Eurofighter (Airbus $AIR (+3,09 %) BAE Systems $BA. (+2,29 %) Leonardo $LDO (+5,06 %) MTU Aero Engines $MTX (+3,69 %) etc) would be the most attractive alternatives in the short term. The Saab Gripen has an almost unbeatable price-performance ratio (especially thanks to the low service and maintenance costs) and the infrastructure for Eurofighter is already solidly developed. Dassault Aviation $AM (+1,84 %) (Rafale) should of course not be underestimated either, but I see it in 3rd place.
I can well imagine that this costly security dilemma is currently being hotly debated in Europe's defense ministries and that exit strategies are already being evaluated. I can also imagine that European buyers of the F-35 are holding on to their canceled orders as leverage in case Trump imposes even more dramatic punitive tariffs or even escalates to a whole new level. In addition to the orders for F-35s, the Europeans are also likely to be reviewing their orders for HIMARS and the like.
However, one thing is already clear to the Europeans: Europe must become sovereign as quickly as possible - in terms of security policy, economy and technology - and can no longer rely on the USA. After Portugal and probably also Turkey, I expect more F-35 dominoes to fall in the near future.
Sources:
- KNDS (Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, Leopard 2, Boxer 2000 self-propelled howitzer, ammunition, AI)
- Quantum Systems (drones, customers in Ukraine & USA)
- Helsing (drones, AI)
Source: https://www.br.de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/ruestungsboom-bayerische-firmen-vor-boersengang,Uf2aNSq
#rheinmetall
#hensoldt
#renk
$RHM (+4,92 %)
$HAG (+3,54 %)
$R3NK (+4,24 %)
$LMT (-0,56 %)
$BAE (+0 %)
$GD (+1,53 %)
$SAAB B (+3,17 %)
$IE0002Y8CX98 (+3,52 %) - WisdomTree Europe Defense UCITS ETF - EUR Acc
TOP 10
"The index was developed by WisdomTree, Inc. ("WT"). The selection of European
companies in the index is based on their share of sales from the defense sector. The Index also seeks to exclude companies associated with weapons that are banned under international law, such as cluster munitions, anti-personnel mines, and biological and chemical weapons. The index also seeks to exclude companies that violate certain generally accepted international norms and standards, such as the principles of the United Nations Global Compact.
At least 20 stocks that meet the revenue share criteria as well as additional minimum requirements regarding market capitalization and liquidity are selected for inclusion. The selected companies in the index are weighted according to free float-adjusted market capitalization - adjusted by the exposure score - while complying with the upper limits and criteria defined in the index methodology.
The index is rebalanced every six months."
#wisdomtree
#europe
#defense
#etf
#defenseetf
#rheinmetall
#leonardo
#saab
#baesystems
#thales
A little update on current events: I took a look at the largest defense companies in Europe and thought it might be of interest to you.
So here's a brief overview of the ten most important players - with a few basics about the companies, their figures (turnover, valuation, etc.) and an assessment of how much potential they still have.
These companies are currently the focus of the armaments boom and are very popular with many investors.
➡️ BAE Systems (UK) $BA. (+2,29 %) - British defense technology
📈 Rating:
BAE Systems appears to be fairly valued at the current fairly valued to slightly favorable. The P/E ratio in the low 20s already reflects good business figures, but is in line with the industry as a whole
In view of rising defense spending and a solid order situation, moderate growth is expected, which underpins the valuation. The share is therefore considered neither highly overpriced nor a bargain - with slight upside potential. upside potential thanks to sustained demand in the defense sector.
➡️ Airbus (Defense & Space, EU)
$AIR (+3,09 %) - European aerospace group
📈 Valuation:
Airbus is primarily rated as fair to slightly fair to slightly demanding valuation is seen as fair to slightly demanding. The high current P/E ratio ~31 reflects pandemic-related earnings weakness, but should fall significantly in 2025.
At a P/E ratio of ~1.8, the sales valuation is moderate. As production and profits are likely to increase in the coming years, the share appears reasonably valued. Greater share price potential depends on growth (e.g. higher jet deliveries); if this is successfully realized, the valuation could prove to be justified be justified.
➡️ Leonardo S.p.A. (Italy)
$LDO (+5,06 %) - Italian defense and aerospace group
📈 Valuation:
Leonardo appears favorably valued compared to the industry favorably to fairly valued. With a P/E ratio of around 20 and a P/E ratio of ~1.3, the valuation is below that of many Western European peers. The low dividend yield reflects a strategy focused more on reinvestment.
In view of double-digit growth (share price +~100 % YoY), there could still be upside potential upside potential if margins continue to rise. Overall, the moderate valuation level suggests that Leonardo is rather slightly undervalued provided that growth in defense electronics and aerospace continues.
➡️ Thales S.A. (France) $THALES (+0,01 %) - Defense Electronics, Aeronautics & Security
📈Valuation:
With a P/E ratio close to 28, Thales is listed at the upper end of the industry scale, but this is partly justified by the stable earnings situation and growth in the civil electronics business. The P/E ratio of ~2 signals that investors are paying slightly more for sales than for pure defense companies - a premium for the profitable cyber/digital business. Overall, the share appears fairly valuedalthough not cheap.
Since Thales, as a broad-based technology group, is benefiting from rising defense budgets, the current valuation seems justifiable; there is further growth potential. growth potential growth potential exists, but larger share price gains are likely to be linked to higher-than-expected earnings growth.
➡️ Rheinmetall AG (Germany)
$RHM (+4,92 %) - Vehicle and weapon systems, ammunition
📈Valuation:
After the rapid rise in the share price, Rheinmetall appears very ambitiously valued. Although the current P/E ratio (>75) is not very meaningful due to extraordinary costs, even the forward P/E ratio of around 52 signals high expectations
The low dividend yield and P/E ratio of ~5 underline that the share is already anticipating a major future jump in sales and earnings. If Rheinmetall achieves its optimistic growth targets (keyword: special assets of the German armed forces, NATO orders), the key figures could fall in the future. Until then, however, the share is considered overvalued - Investors are paying a high price for the growth potential. The upside potential is therefore subject to risks; setbacks in major orders could lead to corrections.
➡️ Dassault Aviation (France) $DAU - Fighter aircraft (Rafale) & business jets
📈Valuation:
Dassault Aviation appears to be moderately valued. The current P/E ratio of ~24 is in the mid-range and the company has little debt, which puts the higher P/E ratio (~3.8) into perspective. Investors are paying a premium for the high net cash position and future major orders (fighter jets).
Overall, the share is considered fairly valued - neither obviously undervalued nor too expensive. In view of the stable margins and special role (high-end military aircraft), a slightly higher sales multiple is justifiable. The growth potential (e.g. through defense projects and new Falcon business jets) could provide medium-term share price momentum without the valuation getting out of hand.
➡️ Saab AB (Sweden)
$SAAB B (+3,17 %) - Defense systems, aircraft (Gripen) & security
📈Valuation:
Saab is currently quite highly valuedwhich reflects the future opportunities. A P/E ratio of ~41 is above average for defense companies and signals that current profits are (still) low - in fact, Saab invests heavily in development, which squeezes margins. The price/sales ratio of ~2.7, on the other hand, is roughly comparable with other aerospace companies. Should the envisaged double-digit growth materialize and profitability increase, the valuation will be put into perspective (forward P/E ~32).
However, the company is currently paying an advance on future profits, so that Saab is rather slightly overvalued is slightly overvalued. The growth potential (in particular through higher defence spending in Scandinavia and new Gripen export orders) is high - if it is realized, the valuation should return to a normal range in a few years.
➡️ Rolls-Royce Holdings (UK) $RR. (+2,85 %) - Engines for civil aviation & military, energy
📈Valuation:
After the share price multiplier in 2023 (share price +~245 % in 2023), Rolls-Royce is now no longer clearly undervalued. The P/E ratio of ~25 looks moderate, but it should be borne in mind that this is based on the recently positive earnings - margins are still low.
The sales valuation at approx. 3.3 times sales is in the midfield between classic defense and civil aircraft manufacturers. Without a dividend and with a debt burden, Rolls must first prove that the turnaround is sustainable. Overall, the share is currently fair to slightly overvalued as there is a lot of future potential (e.g. new generations of engines, small modular reactors) in the share price. If the hoped-for jump in profits is achieved in the next few years, Rolls-Royce could catch up further - however, the current upside potential is rather limited. limitedas long as tangible results are awaited.
➡️ Safran S.A. (France)
$SAF (+4,22 %) - Engines (e.g. CFM), aviation supplier
📈Valuation:
Safran appears distorted by the disclosure of a loss (negative TTM P/E ratio), in fact the share is highly valued on the basis of the underlying earnings power. A forward P/E ratio of over 30 and P/E ratio close to 4 are well above the sector average, which anticipates the market position and growth opportunities (increasing aircraft production, maintenance business). The dividend yield is relatively low at <2%.
Overall, Safran is probably rather overvalued investors are paying a premium for quality and market position. The growth potential (recovery in aviation, new engine programs) does exist, but is largely priced into the share price. Setbacks could ease the valuation somewhat; in the long term, however, Safran remains an expensive but very solid value.
➡️ Hensoldt AG (Germany) $HAG (+3,54 %) - Specialist for sensor and radar technology
📈Valuation:
After a sharp rise in the share price, Hensoldt is clearly expensive. The current P/E ratio is hardly reasonable (triple-digit due to special effects in the balance sheet); even on a forward basis, it is in the high 30s, which is high even for high-growth tech stocks.
Investors are therefore paying in advance for expected future profits. The KUV ~3 reflects the enormous sales growth, but is not low for a defense electronics specialist. The low dividend yield shows that profits are being retained. Overall, the share seems overvalued - the high momentum (+54 % last year) already largely prices in future growth. Although Hensoldt has excellent growth prospects (digitization of defence, networking), but these would first have to translate into significantly higher profits to justify the current valuation. An entry is therefore considered speculative, as setbacks are possible if expectations are not met.
👉 Conclusion:
Europe's largest defense companies are benefiting from the rearmament cycle, which is reflected in higher valuations in some cases. Undervalued Leonardo appears undervalued in this group (thanks to more favorable ratios), while established companies such as BAE, Airbus, Thales and Dassault are largely fairly valued. fairly valued appear to be fairly valued.
Stocks with a turnaround character (Rolls-Royce) or a high future share (Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, Safran, Saab) show higher multiples and tend to be considered overvalued. overvaluedas a lot of growth is anticipated.
The growth potential is high across the industry - higher defense budgets, technology purchases and retrofitting requirements are keeping order books full. The decisive factor for further share price increases will be whether companies can translate these growth opportunities into rising profits in order to put the ambitious valuations into perspective.
