$HAG (-1,64 %) sold with 95% profit via stop loss.

It seems like my post about Europas F-35-Sicherheitsdilemma could not have come at a better time:

Dependence on US armaments is increasingly perceived as a risk factor for Europe's military and security sovereignty and is now being publicly addressed at the highest political level faster than I would have expected.

French President Emmanuel Macron

President of France Emmanuel Macron has made it clear in an interview with Le Parisien that he is critical of Europe's purchase and use of US armaments and proposed replacing them with European alternatives.

Macron was also quite clear: "Those who buy Patriot systems should be offered the next generation of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy F-35s should be offered the Rafale fighter aircraft."

His main concern is greater strategic autonomy for Europe:

• Criticism of US systems: Poland plans to buy American F-35 fighter jets ($LMT (+1,31 %)) and Patriot ($RYTT34). Macron questions these decisions and proposes European solutions.
• European optionsMacron specifically mentions approaches such as joint European development projects to reduce dependence on the USA. Examples include European fighter jets such as Saab Gripen ($SAAB B (+1,49 %)), Eurofighter ($AIR (+1,86 %) - $BA. (+2,48 %) - $MTX (+0,73 %) - $LDO (+0,4 %)) or Dassault
  Rafale ($AM (-0,61 %)) or air defense systems (e.g. SAMP/T from $HO (-1,62 %), $BA. (+2,48 %), $AIR (+1,86 %) and $LDO (+0,4 %) or Oerlikon Skynex from $RHM (-0,82 %)).
• Long-term strategyMacron's proposals aim to strengthen Europe's military independence by pooling technology, production capacities and resources in the EU member states' own economic area in the long term.

Macron is thus sending a clear signal for more European cooperation in the defense sector and against an excessive focus on US technology.

#emmanuelmacron
#usa
#defense
#verteidigung
#rüstungsindustrie
#europa
$R3NK (-0,04 %)
$IE0002Y8CX98 (+1,1 %)
$HAG (-1,64 %)

- KNDS (Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, Leopard 2, Boxer 2000 self-propelled howitzer, ammunition, AI)

- Quantum Systems (drones, customers in Ukraine & USA)

- Helsing (drones, AI)

Source: https://www.br.de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/ruestungsboom-bayerische-firmen-vor-boersengang,Uf2aNSq

#rheinmetall
#hensoldt
#renk
$RHM (-0,82 %)
$HAG (-1,64 %)
$R3NK (-0,04 %)
$LMT (+1,31 %)
$BAE (+0 %)
$GD (+1,07 %)
$SAAB B (+1,49 %)

For the time being, I am parting with $HAG (-1,64 %) as the share prices currently seem overvalued to me due to the political situation.

I will consider buying again at a price of €40 and below.

I have been invested in my defense stocks for over a year now. I have to say that Rheinmetall $RHM (-0,82 %) was also the first share I ever bought in January last year. 😁 $HAG (-1,64 %)
$BA. (+2,48 %)
$KOG (+0 %)
$R3NK (-0,04 %)

Now I'm up more than 100% on many stocks, in some cases almost 200%. But the rally in the last few days and weeks is just crazy.

I am very, very sure that defense stocks will continue to rise in the long term. Otherwise I wouldn't have made the investment. 💁🏽‍♀️ But I am also sure that sooner or later there will be a correction. And for me that is actually a matter of days/weeks.

That's why I'm now considering whether I shouldn't actually realize my profits now and then get back in at a "favorable" time (for me that means -10, -20 or -30%).

Unfortunately, I don't have any experience in this area yet, so it's difficult to assess this right now. How do those of you who have been invested for longer do it? Do you also realize gains on shares at a "favorable" time if you are invested in these shares for the long term and are convinced?

Слава Україні 💙💛

Exit found. Target exceeded. Holding period 3 weeks

It has become normal for large stocks to be more volatile than we were used to for a long time.

The price changes following news (latest example $RHM (-0,82 %) or $HAG (-1,64 %) ) seem to me to be the reaction of a lot of investors who are desperate to get in on the latest price explosion. The fact that these are financially solid stocks and not shitholes will probably quickly convince many people to invest.

Of course, institutions also invested in armaments during the war years, but the latest rise was rather untypical. Extreme buying up of the share price after news for an asset in the 100B range speaks for enthusiastic small investors who are not necessarily interested in buy and hold.

The volume and fluctuations will definitely increase, but after such a rise there is also a chance of temporary setbacks until expectations are backed up by figures.

Of course, I wish all investors that the EU will first present a high joint investment program, only for armaments produced in Europe, but it is also possible that a lot will be bought from the USA in order to persuade Trump to cooperate.

The chances of a stock being gambled are high, but with an increase of 200% in one year, a setback of 30% sooner or later is also to be expected.

Europe will certainly generate more sales for Rheinmetall in the medium term, but nobody can guarantee that the valuation will then be right.

Fomo is not worth an investment

Good luck🚀

A little update on current events: I took a look at the largest defense companies in Europe and thought it might be of interest to you.

So here's a brief overview of the ten most important players - with a few basics about the companies, their figures (turnover, valuation, etc.) and an assessment of how much potential they still have.

These companies are currently the focus of the armaments boom and are very popular with many investors.

➡️ BAE Systems (UK) $BA. (+2,48 %) - British defense technology

• P/E RATIO (P/E): approx. 21.7 on a trailing basis; expected ~19.4 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): approx. 1.60 current; expected ~1.37 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~2.2 % (annual dividend ~31 pence)
• Share price (March 2025): ~£14.07 (approx. €16)
• Market capitalization~£42 billion
• Outlook: Solid sales growth (~+5% expected for 2025)
• Analysts mostly with Buy-recommendation (11 buy, 5 hold, 1 sell)

📈 Rating:

BAE Systems appears to be fairly valued at the current fairly valued to slightly favorable. The P/E ratio in the low 20s already reflects good business figures, but is in line with the industry as a whole

In view of rising defense spending and a solid order situation, moderate growth is expected, which underpins the valuation. The share is therefore considered neither highly overpriced nor a bargain - with slight upside potential. upside potential thanks to sustained demand in the defense sector.

➡️ Airbus (Defense & Space, EU)
$AIR (+1,86 %) - European aerospace group

• P/E RATIO (P/E): ~30.9 current; expected ~24.9 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~1.89 current; expected ~1.73 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~1.5 % (incl. special dividend; regular ~1.1 %)
• Share price: ~165 €
• Market capitalization: ~131 bn €
• Outlook: Civil and military aircraft demand high; 2025 delivery target raised
• Analyst consensus positive (price targets ø ~€182, ~+10% upside)

📈 Valuation:

Airbus is primarily rated as fair to slightly fair to slightly demanding valuation is seen as fair to slightly demanding. The high current P/E ratio ~31 reflects pandemic-related earnings weakness, but should fall significantly in 2025.

At a P/E ratio of ~1.8, the sales valuation is moderate. As production and profits are likely to increase in the coming years, the share appears reasonably valued. Greater share price potential depends on growth (e.g. higher jet deliveries); if this is successfully realized, the valuation could prove to be justified be justified.

➡️ Leonardo S.p.A. (Italy)
$LDO (+0,4 %) - Italian defense and aerospace group

• P/E RATIO (P/E): ~22.5 current; expected ~20.6 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~1.35 current; expected ~1.17 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~0.7 % (share price € 38.56, dividend € 0.28)
• Share price: ~38-39 €; Market capitalization: ~21 bn €
• Outlook: Strong order situation due to defense technology (market cap. +100 % in 12 months)
• Analysts see further upside potential; earnings estimates moderately rising (double-digit sales margins).

📈 Valuation:

Leonardo appears favorably valued compared to the industry favorably to fairly valued. With a P/E ratio of around 20 and a P/E ratio of ~1.3, the valuation is below that of many Western European peers. The low dividend yield reflects a strategy focused more on reinvestment.

In view of double-digit growth (share price +~100 % YoY), there could still be upside potential upside potential if margins continue to rise. Overall, the moderate valuation level suggests that Leonardo is rather slightly undervalued provided that growth in defense electronics and aerospace continues.

➡️ Thales S.A. (France) $THALES (+1,36 %) - Defense Electronics, Aeronautics & Security

• P/E RATIO (P/E): ~28.5 current; expected ~24.3 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~2.0 current; expected ~1.9 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~1.8 % (rising towards ~2 % expected)
• Share price: ~197,7 €
• Market capitalization: ~39 bn €
• Outlook: Solid sales growth (orders in defense and cybersecurity). 2024/25 profit increase expected (forward P/E <25)
• Analysts mostly positive (stable business areas, diversification).

📈Valuation:

With a P/E ratio close to 28, Thales is listed at the upper end of the industry scale, but this is partly justified by the stable earnings situation and growth in the civil electronics business. The P/E ratio of ~2 signals that investors are paying slightly more for sales than for pure defense companies - a premium for the profitable cyber/digital business. Overall, the share appears fairly valuedalthough not cheap.

Since Thales, as a broad-based technology group, is benefiting from rising defense budgets, the current valuation seems justifiable; there is further growth potential. growth potential growth potential exists, but larger share price gains are likely to be linked to higher-than-expected earnings growth.

➡️ Rheinmetall AG (Germany)
$RHM (-0,82 %) - Vehicle and weapon systems, ammunition

• P/E RATIO (P/E)very high, ~76.9 current (TTM); expected ~51.8 (2025e)
• (current profits depressed by investments).
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~4.95 current; expected ~4.37 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: only ~0.6 % (5.70 € div. / share price ~1006 €)
• Share price: ~1.040 €; Market capitalization~44 bn €
• Outlook: Extraordinary sales growth expected - forecast for 2025 raised to € 11-12 bn sales (compared to ~€ 7 bn in 2023)
• Investors have already strongly priced in this expectation (share price > €1000; +≈50% in 6 months)

📈Valuation:

After the rapid rise in the share price, Rheinmetall appears very ambitiously valued. Although the current P/E ratio (>75) is not very meaningful due to extraordinary costs, even the forward P/E ratio of around 52 signals high expectations

The low dividend yield and P/E ratio of ~5 underline that the share is already anticipating a major future jump in sales and earnings. If Rheinmetall achieves its optimistic growth targets (keyword: special assets of the German armed forces, NATO orders), the key figures could fall in the future. Until then, however, the share is considered overvalued - Investors are paying a high price for the growth potential. The upside potential is therefore subject to risks; setbacks in major orders could lead to corrections.

➡️ Dassault Aviation (France) $DAU - Fighter aircraft (Rafale) & business jets

• P/E RATIO (P/E): ~24.1 current; expected ~21.4 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~3.8 current; expected ~3.2 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~1.37 % (div. € 3.37 at share price ~€ 246)
• Share price: ~249 €
• Market capitalization: ~19 billion €
• Outlook: Increasing export demand for Rafale jets and growing business with private jets. Analysts expect profit growth in the coming years (P/E ratio declining <22). Participation in Thales provides strategic added value.

📈Valuation:

Dassault Aviation appears to be moderately valued. The current P/E ratio of ~24 is in the mid-range and the company has little debt, which puts the higher P/E ratio (~3.8) into perspective. Investors are paying a premium for the high net cash position and future major orders (fighter jets).

Overall, the share is considered fairly valued - neither obviously undervalued nor too expensive. In view of the stable margins and special role (high-end military aircraft), a slightly higher sales multiple is justifiable. The growth potential (e.g. through defense projects and new Falcon business jets) could provide medium-term share price momentum without the valuation getting out of hand.

➡️ Saab AB (Sweden)
$SAAB B (+1,49 %) - Defense systems, aircraft (Gripen) & security

• P/E RATIO (P/E): ~40.9 current; expected ~32.0 (2025e)
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~2.7 current; expected ~2.3 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~0.7 % (estimate) - Saab pays out small amounts every six months due to dividends.
• Share price~320 SEK (Swedish krona);
• Market capitalizationSEK ~173 bn (approx. € 15-16 bn)
• OutlookStrong order backlog (e.g. fighter aircraft, submarines). For 2025, 12-16% organic sales growth is forecast with disproportionately high EBIT growth. Analysts mostly Buy (5 Buy, 2 Hold) - they are counting on a catch-up effect in margins.

📈Valuation:

Saab is currently quite highly valuedwhich reflects the future opportunities. A P/E ratio of ~41 is above average for defense companies and signals that current profits are (still) low - in fact, Saab invests heavily in development, which squeezes margins. The price/sales ratio of ~2.7, on the other hand, is roughly comparable with other aerospace companies. Should the envisaged double-digit growth materialize and profitability increase, the valuation will be put into perspective (forward P/E ~32).

However, the company is currently paying an advance on future profits, so that Saab is rather slightly overvalued is slightly overvalued. The growth potential (in particular through higher defence spending in Scandinavia and new Gripen export orders) is high - if it is realized, the valuation should return to a normal range in a few years.

➡️ Rolls-Royce Holdings (UK) $RR. (+2,71 %) - Engines for civil aviation & military, energy

• P/E RATIO (P/E)~25 (TTM) according to current share price; profits are returning after years of losses.
• P/E RATIO (P/S)~3.3 (based on Feb. 2025)
• Dividend yield: 0 % (dividend suspended since 2020)
• Share price: ~£6.20 (approx. €7.35; equivalent to ~$9.35)
• Market capitalization: ~$79.5 billion (≈ £52 billion)
• Outlook: Turnaround underway - profit growth expected again from 2025 after restructuring. Analysts are optimistic (12 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell) and see long-term upside potential of ~5% above current levels. High debt remains a risk, but commercial engine maintenance contracts and defense division provide cash flow.

📈Valuation:

After the share price multiplier in 2023 (share price +~245 % in 2023), Rolls-Royce is now no longer clearly undervalued. The P/E ratio of ~25 looks moderate, but it should be borne in mind that this is based on the recently positive earnings - margins are still low.

The sales valuation at approx. 3.3 times sales is in the midfield between classic defense and civil aircraft manufacturers. Without a dividend and with a debt burden, Rolls must first prove that the turnaround is sustainable. Overall, the share is currently fair to slightly overvalued as there is a lot of future potential (e.g. new generations of engines, small modular reactors) in the share price. If the hoped-for jump in profits is achieved in the next few years, Rolls-Royce could catch up further - however, the current upside potential is rather limited. limitedas long as tangible results are awaited.

➡️ Safran S.A. (France)
$SAF (+0,38 %) - Engines (e.g. CFM), aviation supplier

• P/E RATIO (P/E): n/a (TTM negative - recent loss or special effect); to 2025e about ~31.7
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~3.76 current; expected ~3.35 (2025e)
• Dividend yield: ~1.7% (dividend ~€3.50 p.a.)
• Share price: ~255 €
• Market capitalization: ~102 bn €
• Outlook: Safran suffered from one-off costs in 2024 (engine issue), but expects solid profits again. 2025 earnings per share should increase significantly (P/E normalized ~32).
• Analysts are divided: ~13 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell - the majority see further share price potential, as Safran benefits in the long term as a high-quality supplier (duopoly with GE in aircraft engines).

📈Valuation:

Safran appears distorted by the disclosure of a loss (negative TTM P/E ratio), in fact the share is highly valued on the basis of the underlying earnings power. A forward P/E ratio of over 30 and P/E ratio close to 4 are well above the sector average, which anticipates the market position and growth opportunities (increasing aircraft production, maintenance business). The dividend yield is relatively low at <2%.

Overall, Safran is probably rather overvalued investors are paying a premium for quality and market position. The growth potential (recovery in aviation, new engine programs) does exist, but is largely priced into the share price. Setbacks could ease the valuation somewhat; in the long term, however, Safran remains an expensive but very solid value.

➡️ Hensoldt AG (Germany) $HAG (-1,64 %) - Specialist for sensor and radar technology

• P/E RATIO (P/E)extremely high (TTM >400) due to low profits; forward P/E 2025e approx. 36-37
• P/E RATIO (P/S): ~3.0 currently
• Dividend yield: ~0.7 % (expected dividend € 0.40)
• Share price: ~52 €; Market capitalization: ~6 bn €
• Outlook: In high demand as an electronics supplier to the German armed forces (radar, night vision, avionics). Incoming orders from the German special fund and NATO programs will increase sales significantly in the coming years. However, Hensoldt is still in the start-up phase - profit margins are only expected to increase significantly in the medium term.

📈Valuation:

After a sharp rise in the share price, Hensoldt is clearly expensive. The current P/E ratio is hardly reasonable (triple-digit due to special effects in the balance sheet); even on a forward basis, it is in the high 30s, which is high even for high-growth tech stocks.

Investors are therefore paying in advance for expected future profits. The KUV ~3 reflects the enormous sales growth, but is not low for a defense electronics specialist. The low dividend yield shows that profits are being retained. Overall, the share seems overvalued - the high momentum (+54 % last year) already largely prices in future growth. Although Hensoldt has excellent growth prospects (digitization of defence, networking), but these would first have to translate into significantly higher profits to justify the current valuation. An entry is therefore considered speculative, as setbacks are possible if expectations are not met.

👉 Conclusion:

Europe's largest defense companies are benefiting from the rearmament cycle, which is reflected in higher valuations in some cases. Undervalued Leonardo appears undervalued in this group (thanks to more favorable ratios), while established companies such as BAE, Airbus, Thales and Dassault are largely fairly valued. fairly valued appear to be fairly valued.

Stocks with a turnaround character (Rolls-Royce) or a high future share (Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, Safran, Saab) show higher multiples and tend to be considered overvalued. overvaluedas a lot of growth is anticipated.

The growth potential is high across the industry - higher defense budgets, technology purchases and retrofitting requirements are keeping order books full. The decisive factor for further share price increases will be whether companies can translate these growth opportunities into rising profits in order to put the ambitious valuations into perspective.

As a member of the audience at Hensoldt's analyst conference ($HAG (-1,64 %) ) for the full year 2024, I was able to gain a comprehensive overview of the company's performance and its strategic direction.

Oliver Dorre, the CEO, began by presenting the financial highlights of 2024. Particularly impressive was the improved book-to-bill factor of 1.3x. Order intake exceeded expectations, driven by significant and sustained market growth. The company is benefiting from robust demand for defense technologies in Germany, Europe and worldwide. Dorre emphasized that this growth can be observed structurally across all business areas.

Sales reached 2.24 billion euros, driven by a dynamic market development, especially in the last quarter. Profitability reached a benchmark benchmark of 19.4 % adjusted EBITDA margin before pass-through items, underlining the strength of Hensoldt's business model. Cash flow was also excellent with an adjusted free cash flow of EUR 249 million, which enabled debt reduction above expectations.

Market growth is significant and sustainable, and the technology is technology is ready for the era of software-defined defense. Political support in Germany remains strong and internationalization is gaining momentum. Hensoldt has made significant progress in increasing production in both the sensor and optronics sectors. To further promote growth, the company will implement a strong key account structure.

Digitalization remains a high priority, with a clear roadmap to become a truly digital company. The integration of ESG was completed only nine months after closing, resulting in a new division structure focusing on the three pillars of products, solutions and services.

Dorre explained the four strategic axes of the North Star vision:

• Growth with focus
• scaling
• Pioneering work in the field of software-defined defense
• Building a unique team.

This vision serves as a guide for Hensoldt's next phase of growth and focuses on industrial and operational excellence, digitalization, new business models and agility.

An important point was the Eurofighter Mark 1 Radar contract worth 1.5 billion eurosthe largest in Hensoldt's history. The company is also making progress in the development of digital sites and has commissioned a new logistics center in southern Germany to increase production capacity.

Christian Ladurner, the CFO, presented detailed insights into the preliminary results for the 2024 financial year. Order intake reached a very strong figure of EUR 2.9 billion, an increase of almost 40% compared to the previous year. The order book grew by over EUR 1 billion to a new high of over EUR 6.6 billion. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 23% to EUR 405 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.1%. Adjusted free cash flow amounted to 249 million euros, an increase of 26%.

In the sensor segment, Hensoldt recorded a strong order intake with an increase of almost 40% compared to the previous year. Sales rose by 23% to 1.9 billion euros. In Optronics, the company achieved a record order intake of 740 million euros, which corresponds to an increase of 45%. The move to the new Optronics campus in 2025 will further support this growth.

Ladurner also gave an update on net debt, which has been continuously reduced. For 2024, a net debt of around 1.6 times EBITDA was achieved, which is below the target of 2x. As a result, the interest rate on the senior credit agreement was improved. The Executive Board proposes a dividend of EUR 0.50 per share, which corresponds to an increase of 25% compared to the previous year.

Hensoldt continues to expect a strong order intake performance in 2025. Turnover is expected to be between EUR 2.5 and 2.6 billion. The adjusted EBITDA margin is estimated at around 18%. The company expects adjusted free cash flow performance to remain strong with an unchanged cash conversion target of 50% to 60%.

Ladurner pointed out that the coalition-building process in Germany could affect the timing of orders and sales inflows, which would lead to a shift into the second half of the year. Nevertheless, Hensoldt is convinced of sustainable, decade-long growth potential. The company expects average annual organic sales growth of 10% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 19%.

The CEO went on to emphasize that Europe must take more responsibility for building a self-sufficient deterrence and defense capability. This requires an increase in defense budgets to at least 3.5% of GDP for all NATO allies. Dorre also analyzed the results of the parliamentary elections in Germany, pointing to a stable coalition that is expected to form a new government around Easter.

The subsequent Q&A session provided additional insights:

Aymeric Poulain (Kepler Cheuvreux) asked about the possibility of increasing the organic growth guidance of 10% given the potential increases in defense budgets in Europe. Dorre replied that the company remains conservative and current planning is based on existing commitments, but will consider reviewing guidance in the second half of the year once the new government in Germany is in place and discussions on additional funding become more concrete. He sees Germany on the path to defense spending of 3% to 3.5% of GDP. When asked if Hensoldt is in a position to increase production, Dorre replied in the affirmative and explained that current investments are aimed at increasing capacity for future growth.

Simon Keller (HAIB) asked whether Hensoldt's sales would increase disproportionately if Germany were to increase its budget by 50%, especially in view of the high demand for air defense. Dorre replied that Hensoldt would benefit from any budget increase as the required capabilities match what Hensoldt delivers. Keller also asked about the potential revenue growth in 2026 and the sustainability of the German optronics division's 30% growth. Ladurner explained that it takes about 1 to 1.5 years for decisions on funds to translate into orders and sales. He considers growth of 20 % to 25 % for the optronics division in 2025 to be realistic and expects margins to improve to 10 %.

Christophe Menard (Deutsche Bank) asked whether the discussions have shifted to the affordability of equipment and whether governments are asking for cheaper alternatives. Dorre replied that quality and delivery time take precedence over price.

Carlos Peris (Bank of America) asked about the impact on margins in 2025. Ladurner replied that the stable margin in the sensor area is due to necessary reinvestment in the new generation of TRML-4D radar.

Sash Tusa (Agency Partners) asked about the opportunities and risks for Hensoldt should the USA no longer be a reliable partner for Europe. Dorre replied that Hensoldt is well positioned to maintain Germany's capabilities created with US technologies. He also mentioned the risks associated with tariffs and dependence on the US market.

Yan Derocles (ODDO BHF) asked whether the new environment ensures higher down payments and government support for reinvestment in sensors. Ladurner replied that he has seen a good balance between increased inventories and prepayments in recent years and expects this to continue in the future.

Simon Keller (HAIB) asked about the M&A strategy. Dorre replied that M&A must be a means to an end and that the focus is on technology, innovation and internationalization. Hensoldt is ready for European consolidation, but will not make acquisitions purely for the sake of growth.

In summary, Hensoldt had a strong year in 2024 and is well positioned to benefit from increasing defense budgets. The company is focused on innovation, operational excellence and strategic acquisitions to ensure long-term growth.

I hope you enjoyed the summary!