Porsche significantly lowers forecast

In China, the sports car manufacturer Porsche $P911 (-0,05 %) is facing a serious sales crisis. In the first quarter, the company recorded a 42 percent drop in sales. This decline is not only due to weak demand in China, but also to the US import tariffs, which are weighing heavily on Porsche. As a result, the company has revised its annual targets sharply downwards. The return on sales will now be between 6.5 and 8.5 percent, whereas previously a range of 10 to 12 percent was targeted. Turnover will be reduced by 1 to 2 billion euros, so that it should now be between 37 and 38 billion euros. In the worst case scenario, operating profit could fall to just 2.4 billion euros - a massive drop compared to 5.6 billion euros in the previous year. A key factor in this development is the US tariffs, which force Porsche to import vehicles from North America, increasing costs by 25 percent. In addition, Porsche is currently holding back deliveries to the USA in order to better assess the impact of the tariffs. The planned reorganization of battery production also poses a challenge, as Porsche wants to realign its activities in this area in order to be able to react more flexibly to market changes.

Deutsche Bank reports highest quarterly profit in 14 years

In the USA, Deutsche Bank $DBK (+1,68 %) achieved an impressive quarterly profit in the first quarter of 2023, reaching its highest level in 14 years. Pre-tax profit rose by 39% year-on-year to over €2.8 billion, while net profit climbed to around €1.8 billion. This profit growth is the result of better business in all areas as well as targeted savings. Investment banking in particular contributed around 3.4 billion euros to the increase in earnings. CEO Christian Sewing emphasized that the company has already achieved 85 percent of the targeted cost reductions of 2.5 billion euros. The "Deutsche Bank 3.0" restructuring program is intended to increase the company's efficiency, with the aim of achieving a return on equity of over 10 percent by 2025. A figure of 11.9 percent was already achieved in the first quarter, underlining the positive development.

Sources:

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Porsche-streicht-seine-Prognose-zusammen-article25733168.html

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Deutsche-Bank-meldet-hoechsten-Quartalsgewinn-seit-14-Jahren-article25733619.html

Lufthansa: $LHA (+2,74 %)

- Q1 revenue: €8.13bn (expected: €8.04bn)

- Q1 adj. EBIT: € -722 million (expected: € -718 million)

- Passenger airlines weaker than expected.

- Forecast 2025 confirmed: Significantly higher adj. EBIT than 2024.

- Task force for rapid capacity adjustment in the event of weaker demand.

- North American traffic strong in Q1 (+25% US passengers in March).

HelloFresh: $HFG (-1,19 %)

- Q1 revenue: € 1.93 billion (-7%), adjusted EBITDA: € 58.1 million (+250%).

- Efficiency program bears fruit.

- 2025 forecast confirmed: Sales -3% to -8%, EBITDA € 450-500 million.

Novartis: $NOVN (-0,06 %)

- Q1 net profit: USD 3.6 bn (+33%).

- Forecast raised: Sales growth now expected in the high single-digit percentage range.

Mutares: $MUX (+0,08 %)

- Q1 revenue: €1.53bn (+13%), net result holding company: €29.5m.

- Exits planned for 2025 (>€200m gross proceeds expected).

- Partial sale of Steyr Motors generates € 74m.

Symrise: $SY1 (+0,82 %)

- Q1 organic growth: 4.2%, sales: € 1.32 bn.

- Full-year forecast confirmed: 5-7% organic growth, EBITDA margin ~21%.

DWS Group: $DWS (+1,44 %)

- Q1 revenues: €753m (+3%), net income: €199m (+13%).

- Record inflows: € 19.9 billion.

- Cooperation with Deutsche Bank in the Private Credit segment.

Deutsche Bank: $DBK (+1,68 %)

- Q1 pre-tax profit +39%, highest quarterly profit in 14 years.

- Revenue growth and cost reductions drive earnings above expectations.

Slump in the DAX: investors are seeing red

There is a great deal of uncertainty on the stock markets at the moment, and this is being further fueled by US President Trump's aggressive tariff policy. On the last trading day of the week, investors have to accept massive losses in the Dax. Of the 40 companies listed in the leading German index, only two shares were able to record a positive closing price. The remaining 38 stocks experienced double-digit declines in some cases. Deutsche Bank was particularly affected $DBK (+1,68 %)which fell by 9.77 percent, and MTU Aero Engines $MTX (+0,74 %)whose shares fell by 8.11 percent. Deutsche Börse, Infineon $IFX (+0,27 %) and Siemens Energy $SIE (+0,83 %) also suffered losses of more than 7 percent. The Dax itself closed 4.95 percent lower at 20,641.72 points.

Trade war continues to weigh on the markets

Pressure on the markets remains high as uncertainty over trade relations between the USA and China persists. China's announcement that it would impose counter-tariffs on US goods has heightened fears of a full-scale trade war. At times on Friday, the Dax fell by up to 5.6 percent to 20,579 points. The MDax and EuroStoxx50 also suffered significant losses. There were significant declines in the banking sector in particular, which is heavily dependent on economic developments. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank $CBK recorded losses of up to 12.1 and 9.3 percent respectively. Volatility on the markets is likely to remain high as long as the uncertainty surrounding customs policy persists.

Slight stability at Adidas and Beiersdorf

Despite the general downward trend, there were also some bright spots in the Dax. The shares of Adidas $ADS (-0,09 %) were able to maintain their position as the lone frontrunner with a plus of 0.54 percent. Symrise $SY1 (+0,82 %) and Beiersdorf $BEI (+0,64 %) also remained relatively stable, with Symrise recording a minimal gain of 0.01%, while Beiersdorf fell by 0.37%. Investors are hoping that the negative spiral of tariffs and counter-tariffs can be halted through negotiations, but the uncertainties remain and could continue to weigh on the markets.

Sources:

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Das-sind-die-groessten-Verlierer-im-Dax-article25682125.html

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Dax-schmiert-ab-US-Zoelle-China-Zoelle-und-jetzt-article25681044.html

2025 - A year to forget if you look at the first quarter. While things were still looking positive until around mid-February, things have been going steadily downhill since the middle or end of February.

March 2025 was the worst single month in my portfolio since 2013, with price losses of almost 10%. The negative market trend in the US and a weak US dollar naturally hurt my portfolio particularly badly.

Monthly view:

In total, March was -9,9%. This corresponds to price losses of almost 30.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was -7.9% and the S&P500 -5.8% (in dollars, for euro investors it was also more like -10%).

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers shows a clear picture in March:

Winners? You will look for them almost in vain this month.

In 1st and 2nd place are Deutsche Bank
$DBK (+1,68 %) and Allianz $ALV (+0,03 %) two German financial stocks with gains of around € +180 each. Northrop Grumman $NOC (-0,86 %) at +120€ is only one of 2 American stocks with a positive price performance in March.

A completely different picture on the losers' side:

1st place goes to NVIDIA $NVDA (-0,17 %) with price losses of over €4,200. It is followed by Meta $META (-0,15 %) and Palo Alto Networks
$PANW (+0,34 %) with price losses of ~€2,000 each. 4th place goes to Alphabet
$GOOG (-0,77 %) with €1,600 in share price losses. The flop 5 is then completed by a non-tech stock, namely Starbucks
$SBUX (-1,71 %) with losses of ~€1,400.

The performance-neutral movements were €500 in March - these are still lower at the moment due to the house construction issue.

current year:

In the YTD my portfolio is now also clearly in the red with -8,4%. The MSCI World is still doing better at -5.4%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~260.000€. This corresponds to an absolute decline of ~€25,000 in the current year 2025. -28.000€ of this comes from exchange rate losses, slightly offset by ~900€ from dividends / interest and ~2.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in March were +8% above the previous year at ~390€
• At the top of the list Amgen
  $AMGN (+0,27 %) with meanwhile over 55€ (gross) dividend every 3 months
• In the current year, the dividends after 3 months are +15% over the first 3 months of 2025 at ~730€
• The US dollar will also have an impact on dividends this year. Example: 2,500$ at an exchange rate of 1:1 equals 2,500€. At an exchange rate of 1.08$, these 2,500$ would only be worth 2,315€, a decrease of ~185€

Buying & selling:

• I bought in March for 750€
• 460€ shares
• 190€ ETFs
• 100€ crypto
• Sales Was there no

Change of strategy?

At the moment, Donald Trump and his policies are causing a lot of scrutiny, especially with regard to the (high) US share in the portfolio.

I can understand these thoughts very well. However, I have decided not to change my strategy and to maintain my high US & tech allocation in my portfolio.

There are certainly better short-term investment opportunities (European defense stocks as an example). Through my savings plans, however, I have deliberately opted for a long-term buying strategy that I will not throw overboard every few months. In the long term, for example, 2022 was an extremely good year to buy tech stocks.

As I don't have a portfolio target for this year anyway, I'm happy to go even lower - hopefully I'll be happy about the entry prices in 2-3 years' time.

YouTube:

Unfortunately, I only uploaded 2 videos to YouTube in March. Unfortunately, work in March was extremely stressful and time-consuming, so there was little time left for this.

I have also uploaded my March portfolio update as a video there if anyone would like to see some more information on the portfolio performance: https://youtu.be/fxbvatj6uvM?si=xP_gvoEmtuqSsfz8

I'm particularly happy to receive criticism or feedback here! 😊

Goal 2025

As already mentioned in the January & February review, a fixed deposit target for this year makes little sense due to the house construction. A fixed savings rate is also difficult to implement due to the issue (unforeseen costs and the like).

A dividend target is also very difficult due to the high volatility of the US dollar.

That's why I'm focusing on other topics this year, especially building a house and possibly one or two YouTube successes.

How are things looking for you? Are you sticking to your portfolio target for 2025 or do you also see difficulties in achieving it after the first quarter?

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

- 14 positive surprises

- Three negative surprises

- Dividend increases

- Dividend decreases

- Overview of all DAX stocks

Link:

https://shorturl.at/Tdnfw

$ALV (+0,03 %)
$MUV2 (+1,6 %)
$RHM (+2,45 %)
$MBG (+0,99 %)
$SAP (+0,29 %)
$BMW (+0,44 %)
$AIR (+1,38 %)
$VOW (-3,9 %)
$DBK (+1,68 %)
$CBK (+1,3 %)
$SIE (+0,83 %)
$P911 (-0,05 %)
$DTE (+1,41 %)
$IFX (+0,27 %)

$DBK (+1,68 %)

Hello everyone, as I've already read some interesting things here about the composition of portfolios, I'd like to briefly introduce mine. I am now 40 and the aim here is to build up assets over the long term without a specific target date. I am not dependent on dividends and can save around 1500-2000 euros a month. When building up the portfolio, I naturally made the typical beginner's mistakes such as "it's already fallen so much, it must go up soon" (e.g. $DBK (+1,68 %) ) or with Corona Gehyptes (e.g. $BIKE (+1,7 %) ) were not spared. In addition to the securities, I also own two practically paid-off properties (approx. €300,000). My current plan is to build up my etf positions in several tranches, in particular $VWCE (-0,1 %) possibly with even less focus on the USA. I am now looking forward to your praise, criticism, suggestions and ideas for improvement!

Best regards

Martin

Bafin fines Deutsche Bank millions

The financial supervisory authority Bafin has $DBK (+1,68 %) with a hefty fine totaling 23.05 million euros. This fine stems from several violations committed by the bank in the sale of derivatives, which disregarded the organizational obligations of the Securities Trading Act. Postbank was particularly caught in the crossfire as it was accused of failing to comply with the recording requirements for investment advice. In addition, it repeatedly ignored the requirements for account switching assistance. Bafin criticized Deutsche Bank's slow response to violations in the sale of currency derivatives in Spain and found that Postbank had not taken effective measures to properly record telephone consultations after the end of the Covid-19 exemptions. Despite these challenges, the Deutsche Bank share performed well in Wednesday trading and rose by 10.88 percent to 21.47 euros.

Joko & Klaas extend contract with ProSiebenSat.1

In an exciting twist, popular entertainers Joko and Klaas have extended their exclusive contract with ProSiebenSat.1 $PSM (+0,11 %) for another five years. This news was recently announced by the broadcasting family after the industry service dwdl.de reported on the extension. The duo, who have been delighting viewers since 2011, already have exciting new projects in the pipeline, including a live show entitled "Ein sehr gutes Quiz (mit hoher Gewinnsumme)", which will premiere on March 22. Joko and Klaas, who have celebrated great success with their formats such as "Wer stiehlt mir die Show?" and "Late Night Berlin", expressed their optimism about the upcoming collaboration. ProSieben boss Hannes Hiller described the contract extension as one of the best news stories of the year and promised viewers that they can expect many surprises in the future. In the meantime, ProSiebenSat.1 shares were trading 5.03 percent higher at EUR 6.06 at times.

Sources:

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/mehrere-vorwuerfe-deutsche-bank-aktie-zieht-dennoch-an-bafin-verhaengt-millionenstrafe-gegen-deutsche-bank-14291142

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/entertainment-prosiebensat-1-aktie-gewinnt-prosieben-sichert-sich-weiterhin-joko-klaas-mit-neuem-vertrag-14292654

The profit forecasts for the current financial year have risen for 21 of the 40 DAX companies.

According to research by Handelsblatt, analysts have raised their profit estimates for these 7 of the 40 DAX companies by at least five percent in the last three months.

Handelsblatt sheds light on the prospects of these seven companies and their shares with a view to their prospects: the development of earnings this year, the resulting changes in valuation - and how analysts are positioning themselves.

Below is a brief overview, details with further information can be found at "Handelsblatt"

$ENR (+3,84 %) The earnings forecasts for Siemens Energy shares are rising most rapidly

$DBK (+1,68 %) Deutsche Bank share: Rising profits cause valuation to fall sharply

For $QGEN Qiagen: Difficult times after the pandemic are over

$VNA (+0,5 %) Vonovia makes billions in profit after billions in losses

$ZAL (+0,34 %) Zalando: Takeover gives new share price potential

$MTX (+0,74 %) MTU: Global market leader generates stable earnings

$DTE (+1,41 %) Deutsche-Telekom: Unusually strong vote from analysts

Source / Graphics: Handelsblatt, 18.02.25

The euro has been weakening since September 2024 and is approaching parity with the dollar - the currency ratio would then be one to one. The dollar is currently still worth around 1.04 euros, up seven cents in the fall.

German companies with strong business in the dollar area can benefit from this development in several ways.

"The strength of the dollar is good news for exporting German companies," comment the analysts at Baader Bank. This is because their products are comparatively cheaper in the USA.

A weak euro makes exports cheaper, making European products and services cheaper and more competitive in the dollar area and thus in large parts of America and Asia. Import duties in the USA would make products more expensive again - but in the end, the two effects could almost balance each other out.

For example, the medical technology group Siemens Healthineers $SHL (-0,04 %) is hardly worried about the threat of import duties in the USA. The company shares the fear of a global trade war. However, the company expects that the headwind from tariffs and the tailwind from the stronger dollar will largely balance each other out, says CFO Jochen Schmitz.

The tailwind from the strong dollar could remain with companies for a long time to come. "The euro will become a really weak currency. It should quickly fall below parity with the dollar and be at 0.95 euros per dollar quite quickly," expects the well-known fund manager Jens Ehrhardt, founder and CEO of DJE Kapital.

The European Central Bank (ECB) expects the strength of the dollar to ease the burden on exporting companies in the event of possible import tariffs in the USA. ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch says: "The euro would have to be brought to parity in order to essentially compensate for a tariff of ten percent."

The many companies that produce locally in the USA and sell their goods there also benefit from a strong dollar. This is because the effect on the balance sheet is even stronger as soon as companies convert their earnings generated in the dollar zone into their home currency. For every dollar earned, there are currently seven euro cents more than in the fall.

Companies are already feeling the effects. For example, Infineon $IFX (+0,27 %) raised its forecast for the current financial year a few days ago. Previously, the Munich-based semiconductor manufacturer had assumed a slight decline in turnover. The DAX-listed company now expects stable to slightly increasing revenue in 2024.

One reason is the strength of the dollar. Infineon is now assuming a euro-dollar exchange rate of 1.05 euros this year - after previously assuming 1.10 euros. "This adjustment and the better exchange rate in the first quarter increase our revenue expectations by around 450 million euros," calculates Group CEO Jochen Hanebeck.

The estimates show: The biggest currency beneficiaries of a weaker euro are highly globalized companies with strong business in the dollar area. In addition to Infineon, these include $BAYN (+0,12 %) Bayer with its strong US business and the DAX heavyweight Airbus $AIR (+1,38 %). The European joint venture mainly builds aircraft in Germany and France, but they are sold worldwide at dollar prices.

Rheinmetall $RHM (+2,45 %) also benefits: Armaments are usually invoiced in dollars, but the Düsseldorf-based group reports them in euros, which results in higher revenues from the conversion alone.

There are also profiteers in the financial sector. Deutsche Bank $DBK (+1,68 %) CFO James von Moltke hinted at the outlook for 2025: There is potential for higher Group revenues than the 32 billion euros targeted so far, he said. So far, the bank has been planning with an exchange rate of 1.10 dollars per euro - i.e. a euro that is more than five cents stronger than it is currently worth. However, as Deutsche Bank has more income in dollars than costs in dollars and does not hedge this currency risk, it benefits from a weak euro, according to Moltke.

The weak euro also helps the automotive industry. Many luxury vehicles are produced in Germany, but sold worldwide, especially in the USA. Porsche $P911 (-0,05 %) sells every fourth car there - but does not produce a single one.

"This will have a positive impact of several hundred million euros on Porsche's balance sheet," says a Frankfurt stock trader with a view to this year's results. However, US tariffs on imports of European cars could offset this positive effect.

Source & graphic: Handelsblatt