Hey everyone,

I've just caught myself changing my own plans and views as soon as the market environment changes.

BP has been bobbing around in the red in my portfolio for months and not so long ago I said to myself: as soon as it's up, I'll dump it... It will happen at some point. Now the time has come. And I'm not so sure anymore :-) Now I think: I'm taking a long-term view. They pay dividends regularly. And without withholding tax. And especially if such a situation arises again at some point, it doesn't hurt to have a share that stabilizes the portfolio.

What are you doing at the moment? Hold or sell? $SHEL (+1,27%) $BP $VAR

Hello everyone.

I am currently working on the following topic $SHEL (+1,27%) . I'm not so sure whether I shouldn't make a temporary partial sale. I bought 250 shares for €11.40 back in 2020/2021. A partial sale of 100 pcs was made at almost 150% price gain at that time.

So I still have 150 shares.

Due to two portfolio moves, I am "only" shown a profit of approx. 80%, which in fact should be something in the 200% - 250% range.

I receive 8, ... % dividend p.a. which is not wrong, which is why I am considering whether it makes sense to trigger the tax event at all. The share price of €39 will not be maintained, let's be realistic, which is why I'm wondering whether to sell.

I also still have $OXY (+1,75%) 138 shares for 1 year, 2/3 of which I will liquidate, as it was more of a medium-term bet. That would also be a factor that speaks against a partial sale of shell.

I think the world $VWRL (+0,05%) will recover and whether oil is at its peak I don't know.

The two oil stocks make up approx. 11% of my total portfolio.

I am actually well diversified (etf/stocks/real estate/gold/bonds,call money)

$SHEL (+1,27%)

see to it that gasoline becomes cheaper again

Hello everyone

How are you all doing? I hope you are well! 😃

I'd be interested to know which stocks are currently on your watchlist?

I currently have the following stocks on my watchlist:

Financials:

$SOFI (+0,49%) (I think they would be a good addition to Visa in my portfolio. Thanks for your analysis @Klein-Anleger)

Industrials:

$SIE (+0,59%), $SU (-0,25%) & $SIKA (+2,22%) (I am still looking for 1-2 stocks in the industrial sector. Siemens looks quite interesting at the moment).

Consumer:

$MC (+1,45%), $OR (-0,02%), $CDI (+1,63%) & $RMS (+0,26%) (A consumer share is actually still missing in my portfolio. But I don't think it's a good idea to buy something now under duress).

Other interesting companies/ ETFs:

I would also like to have a commodity ETF (silver, uranium & rare earths) and an EM ETF in my portfolio. $NFLX (+0,12%) is also very interesting.

Most recently I have $BV0Z6G (-0,7%) and 250 $SHEL (+1,27%) shares. $NOVO B (+0,66%) I bought more at a bad time, but will remain invested and buy more if necessary. At $IREN (-9,59%) I bought 100 more shares today.

I wish you all a successful day!

Best regards

Chris

$PETR4 (+3,9%)

Ticker: PETR4

Stock exchange: B3 (Brazil)

Sector: Oil & Gas (focus on offshore & pre-salt)

Current share price (last): approx. € 6.50

Petrobras is one of the largest integrated energy companies in the world and the dominant oil company in Brazil. Those who are only guided by headlines quickly overlook what is actually happening operationally.

Business model & strategic position

Petrobras covers large parts of the value chain:

• Exploration & production
• Refinery
• Transportation & Export

The focus is clearly on the Brazilian pre-salt fields - one of the most productive offshore areas in the world.

Advantages:

• High production volume per well
• Comparatively low production costs
• Technological leadership in the deepwater sector

The business remains profitable even at moderate oil prices.

Fundamental key figures (rounded, latest published annual figures)

• Sales: ~100-110 billion USD
• EBITDA: ~45-50 billion USD
• Net profit: ~20-25 billion USD
• Free cash flow: double-digit billions
• P/E ratio: often in the 3-5 range
• Debt: massively reduced since 2016

A company with this level of cash flow strength is currently trading at a valuation that is otherwise more likely to be seen in structural problem cases.

Dividends - the often underestimated factor

A central point is the dividend policy.

Petrobras has regularly paid high dividends in recent years - at times with double-digit yields.

Important here:

• The dividends are strongly linked to cash flow and the oil price.
• In strong years, considerable amounts were returned to shareholders.
• Even with a more moderate payout, the company remains a clear cash flow generator.

Of course, dividends are not guaranteed and are politically influenced. But historically, Petrobras has been highly attractive to income investors.

Political risk - a reality, but priced in

As a state-dominated company, political influence remains a factor:

• Investment priorities
• pricing policy
• Dividend strategy

However, it is precisely this risk that explains the extremely low valuation.

Anyone buying a P/E ratio of 3-5 is also buying the risk discount.

Scenarios up to 2030

It remains crucial:

• Oil price
• Production development
• capital allocation
• political framework conditions

Conservative scenario:

• Oil price ~70 USD
• Stable production
• Moderate dividends
• → Valuation level in the range of € 8-12 per share appears fundamentally justifiable.

More optimistic scenario:

• stable demand
• disciplined investments
• pragmatic policy
• → € 12-18 not unrealistic in the long term until 2030.

This is not a promise, but a range that can be derived from cash flow and valuation multiples.

Classification

Petrobras is:

• not a growth tech stock
• not an ESG favorite
• not a momentum trade

But it is:

• a highly profitable commodity producer
• with globally relevant reserves
• strong cash flows
• attractive dividend history
• and a very low valuation

Whether you invest depends on your own risk tolerance.

But to call a company with billions in cash flow, falling debt and globally competitive production costs "dead" across the board does not seem very number-based, to say the least.

Nevertheless, my personal opinion is that no investment advice should encourage anyone to buy or sell!

$PETR4 (+3,9%)
$PETR3 (+2,88%)
$PBR (+0,42%)
$E (+1,87%)
$SHEL (+1,27%)

#dividends
#dividente
#kgv
#energy
#öl
#gas

On February 5, 2026, the company published $SHEL (+1,27%) published its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2025. The figures show a challenging final quarter, while the return of capital to shareholders is being further expanded.

Key financial figures Q4 2025 Compared to the third quarter of 2025, Shell recorded declines in its key earnings figures in the last three months of the year:

• Adjusted Earnings: Profit fell to USD 3.26 billion. This corresponds to a decline of around 40% compared to the previous quarter (USD 5.43 billion).
• Net income: Profit attributable to shareholders amounted to USD 4.13 billion (Q3: USD 5.32 billion).
• Operating cash flow: Cash flow from operating activities fell to USD 9.44 billion.
• Debt: Net debt rose to USD 45.7 billion at the end of the year.

Reasons for the development Management cited several factors that had a negative impact on earnings in the fourth quarter:

• Tax effects: Unfavorable tax movements, including deferred taxes, weighed on earnings.
• Margin pressure: Earnings were impacted by significantly lower margins in the refining and marketing business.
• Price level: Lower realized prices for oil and gas had a negative impact.
• Bright spot: By contrast, higher trading volumes in the LNG (liquefied natural gas) segment had a positive effect, cushioning a sharper decline.

Full year 2025 Looking at the full financial year, the following picture emerges:

• Total profit amounted to USD 17.84 billion (+11% compared to 2024).
• Adjusted annual profit, on the other hand, fell by 22% to USD 18.53 billion.

Shareholder return (dividend & buybacks) Despite the weaker quarterly result, Shell is continuing its policy of capital reduction:

• Dividend: The quarterly dividend will be increased by 4% to USD 0.372 per share (previously USD 0.358).
• Share buybacks: Shell announced a new USD 3.5 billion share buyback program. This is to be completed by the publication of the Q1 figures 2026.

Summary Shell closes 2025 with an operationally weaker fourth quarter, mainly impacted by margin pressure and tax effects. However, the full-year results and the announced dividend increase and new share buybacks continue to signal a focus on shareholder value.

If there is a military escalation or a direct attack by the US in Iran (or in the Middle East in general), three sectors tend to react most strongly: armaments (defense), energy (oil/gas) and safe havens (gold/precious metals).

1. defense industry (defense & aerospace)

This sector benefits directly from the expectation of government orders for ammunition, missile systems, drones and logistics. The focus here is on US companies, but European stocks also often move up.

$LMT (-2,64%)

$RTX (-1,06%)

$NOC (-0,81%)

$GD (-0,98%)

$RHM (+1,9%)

ETF option (broad diversification):

iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (focus on US defense):

VanEck Defense UCITS ETF.

VanEck Defense ETF: WKN: A3D9M1 / ISIN: IE000YYE6WK5

2. energy sector (oil & gas)

Iraq is a major oil producer. A conflict in this region immediately fuels fears of supply shortages or blockades (e.g. Strait of Hormuz). The oil price (Brent/WTI) usually rises sharply, which increases the margins of the major oil companies (Big Oil).

$CVX (+0,32%)

$TTE (+2,93%)

$OXY (+1,75%)

$SHEL (+1,27%)

$XOM (+0,85%)

Certificates on the oil price:

If you want to bet directly on the commodity price (Brent Crude Oil), you often use ETCs (Exchange Traded Commodities).

WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil: WKN: A1N49P/M/N / ISIN: JE00B78CGV99

3. safe havens (gold & dollar)

In times of military uncertainty, capital flees from risky investments (such as tech stocks) into so-called "safe havens".

Gold: Considered the number 1 crisis currency.

US dollar: Often appreciates as it is considered the most stable currency, which in turn burdens export-oriented US companies, but can benefit dollar holders.

$4GLD (+0,12%)

$ABX (+0,12%)

Important risk warnings

"Sell the news": Markets often price in conflicts before the first shot is fired. As soon as the attack actually takes place, it can paradoxically happen that prices (e.g. oil, gold, silver)

prices (e.g. oil, gold, silver) fall because the uncertainty has disappeared ("sell on good news, buy on bad news" - or vice versa).

Overall market reaction: While armaments and oil rise, broad indices such as the DAX or the S&P 500 often fall initially, as transportation costs rise (bad for airlines such as Lufthansa) and consumer sentiment falls.

Political intervention: If the oil price is too high, the USA often intervenes in strategic oil reserves, which can quickly reduce the price pressure on energy stocks.

About a handful of countries have no withholding tax at all or levy one so low that it is almost unnoticeable.

"These countries in which private investors in Germany are not subject to withholding tax include Ireland, Liechtenstein, Hong Kong and Singapore," says Stefanie Dyballa, Portfolio Manager at KSW Vermögensverwaltung in Nuremberg.

However, the Irish withholding tax is only low if the company is based in the country. Other countries with investor-friendly regulations are Bermuda, Brazil, Canada and Thailand.

However, the most important economy that leaves German shareholders untouched is the United Kingdom. "The UK has many attractive dividend payers to offer, especially in the energy and financial sectors," says the asset manager, naming the likes of $SHEL (+1,27%) Shell, $BP. (+2,46%) BP and $HSBA (+0,51%) HSBC.

Hermann Ecker, authorized signatory and portfolio manager at Bayerische Vermögen in Bad Reichenhall, also immediately thinks of reliable dividend payers from the island, including $DGE (+1,41%) Diageo, $RKT (-0,51%) Reckitt Benckiser, $RIO (+3,67%) Rio Tinto, $IMB (+1,73%) Imperial Brands, $SGE (+2,08%) Sage Group and $ULVR (+1,16%) Unilever. The selection shows just how diverse the withholding tax-friendly UK capital market is.

However, it is worthwhile for investors to consider other companies in addition to the well-known names: Sometimes they offer even higher dividend yields. WELT has compiled a list of 19 shares that are listed in countries with zero or low taxes and have also shown a stable performance over the past twelve months.

The last criterion is intended to protect investors from falling into a value trap, i.e. investing in a company with an eroding business model. The British drinks group Diageo, for example, is regarded as a solid dividend payer, but its share price has fallen by a third over the past year. The Diageo dividend yield of just under five percent is little consolation.

By contrast, the British insurance giant $AV. (-1,09%) Aviva. The London-based company has roots dating back to 1696 and is one of the leading providers of pensions and insurance in its core markets of the UK, Ireland and Canada. Thanks to a focus on cash generation, Aviva is considered a solid basic investment that currently offers its shareholders a dividend yield of around 5.5%, which is only reduced by the German capital gains tax plus solidarity surcharge.

The financial services provider Legal & General, founded in 1836, can also look back on a long tradition. $LGEN (+0,89%) Legal & General can also look back on a long tradition. As a heavyweight in the areas of asset management and pension insurance, the London-based group has a comparatively cyclically resistant business model that benefits from long-term demographic trends. Shareholders receive a current yield of 8.5 percent, making Legal & General one of the highest-yielding stocks in the UK index. The same can be said of the $PHNX (+3,66%) Phoenix Group, whose yield is an impressive 7.8 percent.

The mining group $RIO (+3,67%) Rio Tinto. However, the company is benefiting from the global appetite for raw materials. Rio Tinto is one of the world's largest producers of iron ore, aluminum and copper. Investors are betting on the indispensable role of metals in the global energy transition. The dividend payout is four percent.

The yield is more than twice as high for the Brazilian competitor $VALE3 (+2,24%) Vale. Founded in 1942, the Rio de Janeiro-based mining group is the largest nickel and iron ore producer in the world. Experience shows that the size of the dividend depends on the ups and downs of commodity prices. As these are currently pointing upwards, shareholders have a good chance of achieving a dividend yield of almost ten percent on their capital investment this year. There is no withholding tax.

More speculative are investments in Greek financial institutions such as $TELL (-0,34%) National Bank of Greece. The bank was on the brink of collapse during the euro debt crisis and had to be rescued with state aid. However, business is now flourishing again. Thanks to this economic comeback and the adjusted balance sheet, shareholders of National Bank of Greece should be hoping for a dividend yield in the region of four to five percent.

Financial institutions are also among the most interesting investments in Asia. The city state of Singapore, which does not levy withholding tax and is considered one of the most stable financial centers in the world, is home to the $D05 (+0,98%) DBS Group. Founded in 1968, the institution is considered one of the best banks in the world and has already been described as the "Fort Knox" of the Asian banking world. Investors appreciate the quarterly distribution, which amounts to four percent per year, and the conservative balance sheet management of the DBS Group.

The Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, founded in 1932, also offers a return of around four percent. $OVCHY Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, founded in 1932. It is the longest established bank in Singapore and offers a mix of banking, asset management and insurance, which speaks for diversified earnings. However, the Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation is not quite as dynamic as the DBS Group.

The conglomerate $J36 (+1,96%) Jardine Matheson has its roots in Hong Kong, but the shares are now listed in Bermuda. Founded in 1832, the company is a legend in Asian economic history with a broadly diversified portfolio ranging from real estate to retail. Little known: The financial services provider $IVZ (+0,37%) Invesco, which stands for the most popular Nasdaq ETF QQQ. The investment company's shares have risen by almost half over the past twelve months and also offer a dividend yield of three percent.

If you want to invest specifically in Hong Kong, you can stick with the infrastructure group $1038 (+3,11%) CK Infrastructure. Founded in 1996, the company belongs to the empire of tycoon Li Ka-shing. It invests globally in energy suppliers, waterworks and transportation infrastructure, which ensures stability. Investors receive a return of around four percent.

As far as the former British crown colony is concerned, Dyballa has other ideas: "Financial and telecommunications stocks listed in Hong Kong, such as the $3988 (+1,48%) Bank of China and $941 China Mobile often offer stable and attractive dividends." And she also has a tip for Singapore: "Real estate stocks or REITs that are less well-known in this country also offer stable cash flows and high dividend yields," says the portfolio manager.

Source: Text (excerpt) WELT, 24.01.26