Two days ago, after the earnings, I wrote somewhere that I wanted to $BAS (-4,69%) want to hold on. But what do I care about what I said the day before yesterday? After the rise in oil and gas prices due to the Iran war and the prospect that this is likely to continue for quite some time, I think that a company like BASF, which is heavily dependent on these raw materials and has a lot of problems even without the war, will continue to suffer. I have therefore taken my remaining small profit while there is still any left. On top of that, I received around €500 in dividends over the holding period.

The $BAS (-4,69%) has presented its figures for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the picture is mixed.

• Turnover (expected): 14.16 billion euros
• Turnover (reported): 14.03 billion euros

• EPS (expected): 0.13 euros
• EPS (reported): 0.63 euros

The return to profitability on a quarterly basis and improved cash flow development for the year as a whole are the main positive highlights. In addition $BAS (-4,69%) continues to drive forward efficiency programmes and structural adjustments in order to reduce costs and stabilize profitability in the long term. The dividend is to remain stable at € 2.25 per share, which is a sign of reliability in the current environment.

On the negative side, however, the decline in turnover is due to lower prices and a persistently weak industrial environment, among other things. The outlook for 2026 is also cautious. Management anticipates an operating result at the lower end of market expectations. This indicates that the recovery in demand has so far been muted. Precisely because large chemical companies $BAS (-4,69%) often regarded as early indicators for the industry and therefore also for the German economy, this cautious outlook is remarkable. A clear, dynamic economic upturn for Germany cannot yet be deduced from the figures. Rather, the environment appears to be slowly stabilizing, but without yet entering a noticeable growth phase.

In my opinion, this presents both opportunities and risks. Opportunities lie in a possible cyclical recovery if industrial demand picks up over the course of the year. The ongoing cost-cutting programs could also have a disproportionately high impact on margins as volumes increase. Risks, on the other hand, lie in continued weak global demand, persistent price pressure and geopolitical and energy policy uncertainties, which are particularly relevant for energy-intensive chemical companies. The bottom line is that $BAS (-4,69%) progress at an operational level, but remains heavily dependent on the economic environment.

The key question now is whether we are at the beginning of a cyclical recovery or whether 2026 will remain another transitional year for German industry?

https://de.investing.com/news/economy-news/basf-zeigt-sich-fur-2026-vorsichtig-3364892

~ No investment advice ~

These companies from my portfolio will be reporting in the coming days:

• $O (-1,24%)
• 
  $FRE (-4,39%)
• 
  $ALV (-4,88%)
• 
  $DTE (-2,42%)
• 
  $BAS (-4,69%)

Most interesting figures for my portfolio this week - $BAS (-4,69%)

For me, the $BAS (-4,69%) -figures are the most exciting. The big question: are we finally seeing a cyclical recovery - or will the pressure on margins persist?

The chemical sector is a classic early indicator for the industry. If demand, incoming orders or margins show the first signs of stabilization, this could be a signal for a broader economic recovery. Precisely because $BAS (-4,69%) continues to be one of the leading chemical companies in Germany, the figures are a particular priority for me.

If, on the other hand, the environment remains weak, the patience of us investors is likely to be further tested.

Of course $ALV (-4,88%) , $DTE (-2,42%) & Co. also provide important insights, but $BAS (-4,69%) is about the larger macroeconomic perspective. The overarching question remains: is the cycle turning - yes or no?

Which quarterly figures do you find most exciting this week - and why?

After more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU and the South American economic alliance Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) have concluded a historic free trade agreement. This creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world - with over 700 million people and a combined economic area worth around 22 trillion USD.

This agreement could trigger global economic and stock market effects - for companies, industries and investors.

_________________________

🛃🚢 What will happen to the Mercosur agreement?

• Tariffs on up to 91% of EU exports and 92% of Mercosur exports are to be gradually eliminated.
• The aim is to create a larger single market, better market access, simplified rules and more stable trading conditions between Europe and South America.
• Until now, high tariffs have applied to cars (approx. 35%), machinery (14-20%) and chemical products (up to 18%).

_________________________

📊 Possible effects on the stock market

📈 1. industries with strong exports benefit from higher demand

Europe can sell its products more easily in South America:

• 👩‍🏭 Cars & car parts
• 🏭 Mechanical engineering
• 🧪 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
• 🪄 Electronics & high-tech

The elimination of customs duties and fewer trade barriers will increase the margins and competitiveness of these industries.

Possible examples of Frofiteurs:

• VW $VOW (-3,81%) BMW $BMW (-3,28%) Daimler $DTG (-4,25%)
• Siemens $SIE (-4,9%)
• BASF $BAS (-4,69%) Covestro $1COV (+0,41%)
• SAP $SAP (-2,71%) , ASML $ASML (-4,79%)

➡️ Expected share price impetus from higher export revenues and capped production costs.

_________________________

🍖 2. agricultural & food sector in focus

The agricultural business is also becoming more closely networked on both sides:

• Tariffs on wine, oil, cheese, dairy products and luxury foods are being reduced or gradually created.
• EU producers will gain greater market access in South America; conversely, South American agricultural exports (e.g. beef, sugar) will have better access to the EU.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Nestlé $NESN (-1,51%) Danone $BN (-0,14%)
• Heineken $HEIA (-2,37%) AB InBev $ABI (-1,76%)
• FrieslandCampina $FCEPL

⚠️ However, critics point out that price pressure on local farmers* also arises and environmental risks can increase, for example due to cheaper imports.

_________________________

🚗 3. raw materials & energy: medium to long-term effects

Mercosur countries export large quantities of raw materials:

• Soy, sugar, coffee, ethanol, grain
• Brazil is also a major supplier of crude oil and minerals

One of the aims of the agreement is more stable commodity trade with fewer tariffs, which can influence commodity prices and move the shares of commodity and energy companies.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Vale $VALE3 (-3,83%) Petrobras $PETR3 (+3,74%)
• Bunge $BG (-0,1%) , ADM $ADM (+0,81%)

_________________________

🏦 4. finance & services sector

The agreement also facilitates:

• Market access for financial services
• Opening of telecom and transportation markets
• Opening of public procurement to EU suppliers

➡️ This could strengthen banks, insurers and logistics companies that operate across borders.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Allianz $ALV (-4,88%) Deutsche Bank $DBK (-5,32%)
• DHL/Deutsche Post $DHL (-3,98%) Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (-1,95%)

_________________________

🔄 Short-term market risks

Not everything is automatically positive:

• 🇪🇺 Agricultural protests in Europe show resistance to cheap imports.
• Political uncertainties remain - many parliaments need to ratify.
• Sectors with low competitiveness could come under price pressure.

_________________________

📌 Conclusion

The Mercosur agreement could be an issue with far-reaching effects:

✅ Strong export industry gains new sales markets

✅ Agricultural and luxury food sector gains sales opportunities

✅ Financial and service sector benefits from market expansion

✅ Raw material exporting countries in South America could become more integrated

⚠️ At the same time, there are risks for local producers and price distortions that could have a regional impact on share prices

_________________________

Question for you: What is your opinion on the agreement? And in which sectors or listed companies do you see the biggest winners in the long term?

_________________________

Sources:

- 🌎🤝 Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen zwischen EU & Mercosur unterzeichnet – größte Freihandelszone weltweit

- 💶📈 Wirtschaftliche Chancen für EU-Exporteure und Importeure durch Zollerleichterungen

- ⚙️🚗 Branchenanalysen mit Zollabbau-Effekten für Maschinen, Autos, Chemie etc.

- 🌾🥩 Agrar- und Rohstoff-Impakte durch neue Marktchancen und Quotenregelungen

Okay, I don't know how to start this. This is going to be a lot of information in a very dense text and it can be confusing, but it's worth sticking with it. Even if it will take me a while to get to what exactly this means for investors.

So ... I recently read through the official White House National Security Strategy and there are some really revolutionary things in there.

For the first time there is a separate chapter on the EU and also on Germany. So the fact that Germany is officially considered a threat to the security interests of the USA would be something one would like to read in the newspaper - provided, of course, there were honest and capable journalists in the country.

Basically, the paper hails criticism: our governments violate basic democratic values, censor freedom of expression, suppress the opposition and let lots of migrants into the country who are not on good terms with either Europe or the USA. Nothing new, but still interesting. What is much more exciting, however, is that Donald Trump is saying something that no president has dared to say since John F. Kennedy - for well-known reasons: namely that the Americans a) no longer want to expand NATO and use it as their primary instrument of power b) want peace with Russia.

There has already been much speculation about the closeness between Trump and Putin. But no one has ever written about the real economic reason why peace with Russia is in the actual interests of the Americans. And that's because you all haven't understood how much AI has really changed foreign policy.

It definitely used to be the case that wars were in America's interests. At least since they got involved in the Second World War - actually without necessity - and were able to increase their prosperity considerably as a result - wars were seen as something great or at least necessary in America. In the 1930s, the USA was at an economic low point. However, after they had supplied half the world with weapons and loans and also plundered important patents, human capital and raw materials, the true rise to superpower status began.

From this moment on, a business model was born: create chaos, sabotage enemies and ultimately sell weapons to both sides. A typical left-wing phrase says that there is no war in which the Americans have not made money.

This has fundamentally changed under Trump. War for the sake of war should no longer be waged - at least not where it is important, in Europe. While Biden still saw the liberation of Ukraine and the destruction of the Nordstream II pipelines as the highest civilizational goal, the Trump administration sees it as an existential threat to Germany that the chemical industry $BAS (-4,69%) which is dependent on Russian gas, no longer receives it in Germany and is therefore migrating entirely to China, where the pipelines are still located.

In other words, while Biden still saw selling us American LNG as a net positive, Trump considers the economic erosion of the ally to be more serious than financing Russia.

And while previous presidents would have praised the fact that the Federal Chancellor is putting our country into debt for generations to build up its armed forces, the White House condemns this approach with the words "lack of self-confidence"

Incidentally, even the Americans themselves are financing Russia and now we are finally getting to what AI has to do with it. Because not many people may have noticed it yet, but the total market cap of all US defense companies $LMT (+1,86%)
$BA (-0,31%)
$NOC (+0,79%)
$RTX (+1,45%)
$GD (+0,19%) and co. is now only 1.3 trillion dollars - you don't even get 1/3 of $GOOGL (-2,32%)

The big money is no longer made with weapons, but with technology. And while Biden and Obama were mainly concerned with moving oil and weapons, Trump is concerned with a) raw materials b) energy and c) supply chains.

I'm lucky that I'm dealing with intelligent readers here who don't need me to explain how microchips are made, so I can cut the supply chain thing short. In short, Trump of course needs the lenses from Zeiss and the EUV lithography from $ASML (-4,79%) and therefore has an interest in ensuring that Europe doesn't sink into chaos. At the same time, of course, chips also need rare earths such as palladium - 50% of the global supply is currently in Russian hands. Incidentally, more palladium is believed to be in the Arctic, i.e. in the hands of Russia, Canada and ... Greenland.

The fact that AI needs a lot of energy is also a widely explained and already understood thesis here. What is less in the spotlight is that, in addition to $IREN (-3,87%) with their solar panels, there is another important energy source for AI, namely small modular reactors (SMRs). I think I also shared a news item 1-2 years ago that the Big Techs are starting to build nuclear-powered data centers.

Now these are very special power plants. SMRs are essentially the latest generation of nuclear power plants, which are more efficient and, above all, much cleaner than conventional nuclear power plants. There's just one catch: you need specially enriched uranium and guess where you can get it: Russia. Specifically, the uranium comes from the ROSATOM group which, incidentally, has not yet been sanctioned as a result of the war in Ukraine. Other countries such as Kazakhstan with its Kazatomprom group also have plenty of uranium, but are not allowed to enrich it like Russia because they do not have nuclear power status.

Ok, I may have promised a bit too much in the title. I don't know whether we will really end up with world peace now, but at least we have overcome the age where it was simply claimed that some dictator had used weapons of mass destruction and the country was then reduced to rubble over a period of years. All in all, there is a good chance that the US government and the US military will in future work hard for the welfare of all shareholders of $NVDA (-2,14%)
$AMZN (-1,96%)
$GOOGL (-2,32%)
$GOOG (-2,25%)
$META (-1,28%)
$MSFT (-0,98%) and $TSLA (-2,05%) shareholders.

Novo Nordisk 3.0% $NOVO B (-2,82%) NVO

LVMH 2.0% $LVMH

Pernod Ricard 6.35% $RI (-2,13%)

Imperial Brands 5.5% $IMB (-0,77%)

BAT 6.2% $BATS (-1,41%)

Sunrise Communications 8.00%

Nestle 4.05% $NESN (-1,51%)

Roche 2.85% $ROG (-1,98%)

Novartis 3.07% $NOVN (-2,5%)

Shell 4.07% $SHEL (-1,54%)

German Post 3.86% $DHL (-3,98%)

Swisscom 3.75% $SCMN (-1,81%)

German Telekom 3.52% $DTE (-2,42%)

Strabag 2.72% $STR (-3,15%)

Vonovia 4.82% $VNA (-4,72%)

BASF 5.01% $BAS (-4,69%)

Puma 2.8% $PUMA

Hannover Re 3.62% $HNR1 (-2,63%)

Munich Re 3.8% $MUV2 (-3,26%)

Allianz 4.00% $ALV (-4,88%)

BP 5.76% $BP. (-0,02%)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1zt05UZlehInr81iaZMdY5?si=e676f0a812014943

YouTube

https://youtu.be/BpCIIJYfxHA

Appple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/125-20-europ%C3%A4ische-dividenden-aktien/id1695869891?i=1000744769342

Hello everyone,

To conclude my 2025 series, I'll give you an insight into my strategy and my goals for 2026. As always, the goal should be to achieve at least 15 % return and to achieve long-term return above average. above average.

As I have been increasingly investing in individual stocks and would like to buy back my old portfolio step by step, I will select these stocks first.

I have noticed one thing:

Firstly, I cannot not catch the perfect time and secondly, I lose too much time too much timeto decide on a single value.

That's why I decided today to set up a savings plan for all for all stocks. As soon as the desired position size is reached, the respective savings plan is stopped.

In addition, I am building up dividend stocks further, buy $BAS (-4,69%) and $2338 (-5,93%) is added to the portfolio.

The monthly savings installment is set at 10 % of income as the intention is to put some money aside this year.

In the months of August, September and October will not be invested as usual.

The crypto share in the portfolio is to be reduced further, which should be easy to implement in the bear market.

I am also aiming to make special repayments every year for our property every year. Unfortunately, our dishwasher broke at Christmas. dishwasher broke down at Christmaswhich of course puts pressure on my savings.

Professionally there is a pay rise of approx. 0.3 %I don't have a job change in mind at the moment. The full focus is on my five weeks of unpaid vacation Should the money that I don't earn during this time actually be seen as an opportunity cost?

As the last few weeks of December have been very gray and unpredictable, I hope that the situation in the family/friends brightens up again.

It's at times like these that you realize again: Money isn't everything Health and time are priceless.

Everyone stay clean, take care of yourselves and we'll read about each other in the new year.

See you soon

Koenigmidas

Finally a Saturday without appointments and that before Christmas.

So I thought I'd take a live look at at least 2 stocks from my portfolio. Namely $ALV (-4,88%) and $BAS (-4,69%) . I'd be delighted if you were there - right at 10:00.

https://youtube.com/live/9_b85Dt9xFo?feature=share

Best regards,

Angelo

Where are the highest dividends expected to be paid in Germany in 2026?

The editors of "Welt | Alles auf Aktien" have looked into the question. Here is an excerpt:

Overall, the total dividend payout in Dax and MDax will probably decline overall in 2026. One of the main reasons for this is the weak earnings performance in the automotive industry, which is an important dividend payer.

The amounts that German companies will pay out in 2026 have only been determined in a few cases.

The highest payout in 2026 can be expected from the RTL Group
$RTLL (-3%) can be expected. According to analysts, shareholders of the media group can expect a credit of 3.19 euros per share next year, which corresponds to a yield of 9.6 percent based on the current share price. This does not yet include the expected five-euro special dividend resulting from the sale of RTL Nederland. Incidentally, RTL was already one of the top dividend payers this year, with an additional 23 percent share price gain.

Shareholders of Evonik Industries $EVK (-5,14%) can also hope for more than nine percent. The Essen-based company is so stable in its niches that it has been able to maintain its dividend at EUR 1.17 for four years. Overall, they are the market leader in 20 different areas. In 2026, too, there will be 1.17 euros per share, which would be a current yield of 9.1 percent at the current share price.

Another dividend pearl is Freenet $FNTN (-2,16%). The mobile operator is a favorite of dividend collectors. Experts say it will probably pay 2.10 euros per share in 2026. That would be 7.5 percent. This year, the share price has risen slightly in addition to the generous dividend.

The same cannot be said for the next dividend share: Ströer $SAX (-2,21%). Not only did the operator of outdoor and online advertising lose a lot in 2025, the share price has not budged for ten years. In this case, the dividend yield of 6.3 percent is little consolation.

The last dividend pearl is BASF $BAS (-4,69%). The company was once the largest chemical group in the world, but here too - if you look at the share price - there has been no progress and no growth for more than ten years. At least the Ludwigshafen-based company will be able to keep its dividend stable in 2026, according to analysts. That would be 2.25 euros per share, or a good five percent current yield.

Source text and image, "Welt", 09.12.25

The sensible use of saved capital in retirement requires good planning. Especially if you want money to flow out of it regularly to secure or sweeten the third stage of your life.

Financial brokers then like to offer pension insurance based on a single payment, often called an immediate annuity.

With a normal life expectancy, the return is usually not generous because insurers usually invest very conservatively. In addition, the costs and profit margins of the insurance company further reduce the return. Consumer advocates point out that you usually have to live to be 94 years or older before you receive the investment sum back via guaranteed pensions.

It is often more profitable to park the money in a call money account.

Investments with regular distributions are an alternative. Investors are spoiled for choice between several thousand dividend-paying equity funds.

What are the relevant selection criteria? Quality and cost structure.

For some, the level of distributions may also be an important criterion in the selection process. But caution is advised here: For example, the payout ratio of the Global X Super Dividend ETF $SDIP (-0,7%) is currently over nine percent. With an investment sum of 100,000 euros, this results in a monthly inflow of around 750 euros before tax.

This is possible because the ETF invests stubbornly in the 100 companies with the highest dividends worldwide, but without any consideration of the sustainability of these distributions and the quality of the companies.

This in turn means that, without the dividends, the ETF generated a return of zero over one year and even minus 14% over three years. Investors therefore received high regular payouts, but the investment capital decreased significantly at the same time.

Savers should therefore always pay attention to how the ETF invests. There are various positive counter-examples, such as the Invesco Euro Stoxx High Dividend Low Volatility ETF $EUHD (-3,26%). Although this also focuses on high-dividend companies, it also selects according to qualitative criteria. Result: Although the payout ratio is currently "only" 5.1% per year, this amounts to around EUR 425 per month before tax for an investment sum of EUR 100,000.

However, the ETF has also achieved growth of almost 36% over the past three years, and including distributions, the gain was even over 60%. There are similarly good ETFs for various other investment regions or sectors.

Bond ETFs, on the other hand, are rarely a real alternative for private investors. Although distribution rates of four or five percent can be achieved, this is ultimately only possible with high-risk bonds or US securities with a corresponding currency risk. In addition, a positive return can rarely be achieved over and above the distribution.

A (possibly riskier) alternative is to invest in individual shares with high dividends. However, quality is even more important here. "We value companies with a strong balance sheet that are characterized by a high equity ratio and above-average returns on capital and sales," says Franz Kaim from Kidron Vermögensverwaltung in Stuttgart.

Continuity is also important. "The so-called dividend aristocrats are the gold standard for income-oriented investors," says Rainer Laborenz, Managing Partner of Azemos Vermögensverwaltung in Offenburg. "Companies that have increased their dividends for at least 25 consecutive years are included in this select group."

There are currently around 150 dividend aristocrats worldwide, 117 of which are from the USA and 33 from the rest of the world. The best-known names include Coca-Cola $KO (-0,13%)Procter & Gamble $PG (-0,54%) and Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0,06%) from the USA, Fresenius from Germany $FRE (-4,39%) and Unilever $ULVR (-2,37%) from Great Britain.

Other attractive dividend stocks recommended in a WELT survey of ten leading asset managers in Germany include Allianz $ALV (-4,88%)BASF $BAS (-4,69%)Beiersdorf $BEI (-10,34%)Deutsche Post $DHL (-3,98%) and Munich Re $MUV2 (-3,26%).

In other European countries, they rely on BAT $BATS (-1,41%), BP $BP. (-0,02%), Nestlé $NESN (-1,51%), NN Group $NN (-2,66%)Shell $SHEL (-1,54%) and Swiss Life $SLHN (-5,54%).

In the USA, names such as Altria $MO (-0,4%), Chevron $CVX (+2,77%)Cisco $CSCO (-0,06%), Coca-Cola, Kimberly-Clark $KMB (+0,09%) , McDonald's $MCD (-0,24%) or Pepsi $PEP (+0,39%).

Source: Text (excerpt) & table: Welt, 05.12.25