ArcelorMittal

Analsyst updates, 08.11.

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- GOLDMAN upgrades BIONTECH from Neutral to Buy and raises price target from USD 90 to USD 137. $BNTX (+6.37%)

- BOFA raises target price for UNDER ARMOUR from USD 9 to USD 13. Neutral. $UAA (+1.15%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 29 to EUR 35. Hold. $DHE

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 197 to EUR 200. Buy. $SIE (-0.41%)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for HOCHTIEF from EUR 135 to EUR 138. Buy. $HOT (+1.27%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60 to EUR 62. Buy. $SHL (-0.87%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 19. Buy. $NDX1 (-3.17%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for RATIONAL from 832 EUR to 841 EUR. Hold. $RAA (+1.85%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for AXA from 37 EUR to 39 EUR. Buy. $CS (+0.54%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for BASTEI LÜBBE from EUR 11.70 to EUR 12.20. Buy. $BST (+0%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ARCELORMITTAL from EUR 28 to EUR 29. Buy. $MT (+1.18%)

- DZ BANK raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 130 to CHF 140. Buy. $SREN (+1.31%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 99 to EUR 110. Neutral. $HEI (-0.13%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 35 to EUR 41. Hold. $DTG (+0.21%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX upgrades REDCARE PHARMACY from Reduce to Hold. $RDC (-3.11%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HENKEL from EUR 67 to EUR 73. Neutral. $HEN (+0.21%)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 27 to EUR 28. Neutral. $FNTN (+0.14%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for ABOUT YOU from EUR 3.10 to EUR 3.40. Underweight. $YOU (+1.8%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for NEMETSCHEK from EUR 108 to EUR 125. Overweight. $NEM (-1.17%)

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- BOFA lowers the price target for PINTEREST from USD 45 to USD 39. Buy. $PINS

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 56 to EUR 55. Buy. $DTG (+0.21%)

- UBS lowers the price target for JCDECAUX from EUR 21.60 to EUR 18.50. Neutral. $DEC (-0.84%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for ADTRAN HOLDING from EUR 9.70 to EUR 9.30. Buy. $ADTN (+6.1%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 17. Outperform. $NDX1 (-3.17%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VESTAS from DKK 99 to DKK 80. Underweight. $VWS (-1.6%)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 62 to EUR 59. Buy. $FRA (-1.27%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for GSK from GBP 15.50 to GBP 14.50. Equal-Weight. $GSK

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 23 to EUR 21. Buy. $COP (-0.21%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for JUNGHEINRICH from EUR 41 to EUR 39. Buy. $JUN3 (+1.85%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for SUSS MICROTEC from EUR 87 to EUR 75. Buy. $SMHN (+3.96%)

Summary Earnings, 07.11.

$MUV2 (+1.94%)
| Munich Re Q3 24 Earnings

EPS EU7.02 (est EU6.67)

Sees FY Insurance Rev. About EU61B, Saw About EU59B

Sees FY Profit Above EU5B, Saw EU5B

$RHM (+1.35%) | Rheinmetall AG Q3 24 Earnings

Sales EU2.45B (est EU2.42B)

Still Sees FY Sales About EU10B (est EU9.99B)

Sees FY Operating Margin At Upper End Of Guidance

Nissan Motor Q2 2024 Earnings $7201 (+0.39%)

Q2 Operating Income 31.91B Yen (est 65.25B Yen)

Q2 Net Loss 9.34B Yen (est Profit 49.07B Yen)

Sees FY Oper Income 150.00B Yen, Saw 500.00B Yen

To Cut 9,000 Jobs Globally

To Reduce Global Production Capacity By 20%

To Sell Back Up To 10.02% Of Mitsubishi Motors Shares

Air France KLM Q3 24 Earnings $AF

EBITDA EU1.90B (est EU1.9B)

Rev EU8.98B (est EU8.88B)

Net Income EU780M (est EU874.3M)

Sees FY Capex EU3B, Saw Below EU3B

$TEF (-1.24%) | Telefonica Q3 24 Earnings

REV. EU10.02B (est EU10B)

Adj. EBITDA EU3.26B (est EU3.26B)

Net Income EU10M (est EU357M)

To Book €314 Million Non-Cash Impairment For Peru

ArcelorMittal Q3 24 Earnings: $MT (+1.18%)

- Sales $15.20B (est $15.23B)

- EBITDA $1.58B (est $1.47B)

- Still Sees FY CAPEX $4.5B To $5.0B

- Markets Conditions Are 'Unsustainable'

- Positive On Medium/Long Term Outlook

Daimler Truck Holdings Q3 24 Earnings: $DTG (+0.21%)

- Rev EU13.14B (est EU12.98B)

- Adj EBIT EU1.19B (est EU1.13B)

- Still Sees FY Rev EU53B To EU55B (est EU53.45B)

Adyen disappoints with lower than expected sales growth and loses 13% on the stock market. $ADYEN (+3.57%)

Lanxess-shares rise by 4.4% to 26.80 euros after a positive quarterly report, having previously fallen by 13%. The operating margin exceeds expectations, although prices weaken. $LXS (+0.21%)

National Grid increased its adjusted operating profit by 14% to 2 billion pounds in the first half of the financial year and expects an increase of around 10% for the year as a whole. Higher fees in New York and higher revenues in the UK are supporting growth. $NG. (-0.42%)

AMS-Osram increased its profitability in the third quarter despite a decline in sales, but expects business development to be subdued in the fourth quarter and early 2025. To ensure profitability, the company plans further cost reductions of 225 million euros by the end of 2026. $AMS

Suess Microtec is more optimistic after a strong third quarter and now expects to achieve its annual targets in the upper half of the forecast range. Sales are expected to reach 380 to 410 million euros, with an EBIT margin of 14 to 16 percent. $SMHN (+3.96%)

The investment company Mutares slips into the red operationally in the third quarter with an adjusted EBITDA loss of EUR 16.5 million. However, sales increased by 14% to 3.9 billion euros. $MUX (-1.97%)

Delivery Hero expects a free cash flow of EUR 50 to 100 million for 2024 and anticipates GMV growth at the upper end of the forecast of 7 to 9 percent. However, the Group expects adjusted EBITDA to be at the lower end of the range of EUR 725 to 775 million. $DHE

Deutz recorded an 80% drop in profits to EUR 7.2 million in the third quarter and slipped into the red with a bottom line of EUR 2 million. Turnover falls by 14.9% to 430.4 million euros due to a slump in demand. $DEZ (+1.28%)

Compugroup Medical records a decline in EBITDA in the third quarter

EBITDA fell by 12% to 54.9 million euros in the third quarter, but slightly exceeded

analysts' expectations slightly. Turnover falls by 1% to 283.4 million euros

euros, and the company confirms its reduced forecast for 2024. $COP (-0.21%)

Alzchem reports a jump in profits for the first nine months with

a 36% increase in EBITDA to EUR 76.8 million and increases the EBITDA margin to

EBITDA margin to 18.5 %. The Group is sticking to its profit target for 2024

but is aiming for the lower end of the sales forecast due to the discontinuation of low-margin

the lower end of the sales forecast. $ACT (+0.5%)

Nordex is raising its forecast for the EBITDA margin for 2024 and

now expects it to be closer to the upper end of the range of three to four

percent. In the first nine months of the year, the company recorded

an increase in revenue of 14 percent to EUR 5.1 billion and an improved

improved EBITDA margin of 3.7 percent. $NDX1 (-3.17%)

Nemetschek recorded an increase in revenue in the third quarter thanks to the

thanks to the GoCanvas acquisition, Nemetschek recorded a 15.1% increase in revenues to 253 million euros,

however, earnings remained slightly below expectations. The

The operating costs of the acquisition put pressure on profits, so that EBITDA

increases by 6.7 %. $NEM (-1.17%)

Rational increases earnings before interest and taxes in the third quarter

taxes by 18% to just under 78 million euros, exceeding analysts'

analysts' expectations, while sales revenues grew by 8% to 294 million

euros. The company confirms its forecast for the year. $RAA (+1.85%)

So, after my lukewarm stumble onto the stage of the community recently, now for real:

Hello everyone (friendly nods to all),

I've been a mostly silent reader for a while now, but I'd like to introduce myself - even if I don't know what I'm up to - in keeping with local custom:

I am 55 & a civil servant in the Federal Civil Service, which puts me in the fortunate position (I hope) of not having to rely on additional income from investments for a materially bearable retirement (in twelve years' time, I would just about reach retirement without deductions after 40 years in the civil service). Investment is therefore essentially a consumption alternative, a safety cushion and - later - intended for my sons (living with their mother, 17 & 13 years old; each with their own portfolios / savings plans). My investment horizon is therefore open ended (or determined biologically or by the legitimate major needs of the offspring).

My investment history - still perceptible in the portfolio presented here - begins in 1996/1997 with the first (and later unfortunately also the second) placement of the $DTE (+0.38%) T-share and the IPO of $PSM (+0.04%) ProSieben (which has since more than made up for its initial investment through dividends, good boy). At some point, he inherited the current e.on position from his grandparents $EOAN (+0.26%) e.on position and a position in $VOW3 (-1.43%) Volkswagen, which I sold several years later on the advice of my savings bank at the time (bygones).

Then nothing for a long time (studies/traineeship, career start - I was "investing in my current account" and couldn't even manage to process my business trip expenses on time, tststs).

With a wife and children came the need to make provisions (the little guys simply cost a tidy sum through the cycle), which I initially did through sporadic ad hoc investments:

In particular hubris, at the beginning of the subprime crisis I trusted the investment banks to have everything under control and bought shares in $DBK (+0.74%) Deutsche Bank (close to ATH), Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch (the relics can be found as a minus at $BAC (+1.49%) Bank of America for Bear Stearns and - invisibly - a tax loss carryforward to offset the now quite respectable $JPM (+2.19%) J.P. Morgan position for Merrill Lynch), $DBK (+0.74%) with additional purchases slowly creeping back into a "perhaps at some point back to zero" zone.

Otherwise, a number of active funds ($n/a LU0557858130, $n/a LU1143163779, $n/a IE00BG7PHW03, $n/a LU1496713741, $n/a DE0008474750, $n/a GB0030932676, $n/a (+0.81%) LU1864952335 and predecessors), of which only $n/a (+0.65%) Pictet Water had actually performed noticeably positively on a time-weighted basis.

From around 2015, I then gradually started to populate the current portfolio with various equity and ETF savings plans at ING ($GOOG (-4.95%) Alphabet C, $AAPL (+0.52%) Apple, $KO (+1.89%) Coca-Cola, $NESN (-0.15%) Nestlé, $BAYN (-0.14%) Bayer (ouch!), $SIE (-0.41%) Siemens, $DIS (+1.21%) Walt Disney, $PFE (+1.18%) Pfizer, $PR1J (+1.01%), $FLXC (-0.06%), $FLXK (+1.98%), $EXS1 (+0.38%), $LCUK (+1.14%), $C060, $XMUS (+1.09%), $DBXW (+0.99%), mostly at 50 euros/month), supplemented by a few nicely timed individual purchases in $AAPL (+0.52%) , when it was still trading at around 80 euros before the 3:1 stock split, as well as $MT (+1.18%) AcelorMittal and $BHP (+0.19%) (mini position, but with a nice dividend yield since then).

With supply chain problems and inflation emerging at the end of corona/beginning of Ukraine, I then started to invest in another portfolio, the actually far too expensive $SPAG (+2.63%) iShares Agribusiness and $EXV6 (+0.16%) iShares STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources as a hedge against the rising cost of living that had gone wrong (had bet on more pronounced sectoral greed-flation).

Since I have since followed the recommendations of $VWCE (+0.85%) resp. $ACWI (Glashaus!) in the meantime, the aggregated lump and the $AAPL (+0.52%) and $GOOG (-4.95%) was getting a bit scary, but I didn't want to touch the corresponding equity savings plans (more on this in a moment), I put my basic trust in the long-term out-performance of the US equity market into practice by investing in two "equal weight" index funds, namely with $WEBA (+1.63%) on the NASDAQ100 (also with a savings plan) and $XDEW (+1.74%) on the S&P500 (one-off investment only).

Some of this, especially the earlier investment history, is foreign to my Getquin portfolio history, as I only entered this after a portfolio reorganization in early 2023.

Over the years, my employer has steadily introduced stricter regulations for private financial transactions, which currently makes it practically impossible for me to invest in individual names or funds with certain predominant industry shares. However, in an exemplary manner under the rule of law, previously existing savings plans were protected in the respective iterations of the tightening, so that I jealously continue the remaining share savings plans (see above lump at $GOOG (-4.95%) and in particular $AAPL (+0.52%)).

I currently save monthly as follows (savings rate): Grandfathering: $GOOG (-4.95%) (100), $AAPL (+0.52%) (50), $DIS (+1.21%) (50), $PFE (+1.18%) (50), $KO (+1.89%) (50); "regular": $VWCE (+0.85%) (currently 520 with annual 4% dynamic), $SPAG (+2.63%) (100), $WEBA (+1.63%) (100), $EXV6 (+0.16%) (100), $10AJ (+0.77%) (100) and - before first-time execution - (100). $SDIP (-0.52%) (100).

In addition, I have reflected certain market assessments at the respective point in time through individual purchases in country ETFs (long-term catch-up potential of the emerging markets through $HMEF (+0.25%), $FLXC (-0.06%), $FLXK (+1.98%) - $FLXI (-0.53%) was now too expensive for me and the Indian economy was not sufficiently represented by companies listed there; the sleeping innovation giant Japan through $PR1J (+1.01%), "luxury always works" even in times of inflation through $DX2G (+0.11%)Europe - especially CH and UK - as a general counterweight to the US through $VEUR (+0.41%) and the sensible Nordics by $XNZN (-0.06%)), so that there is now a colorful bouquet of ETFs. However, I am not fundamentally dissatisfied with this, especially as far as these are distributing & savings plan-capable in my ING portfolio, so that their distributions (from 75 euros) are automatically reinvested ($VEUR (+0.41%) - is so large that this could work for each of the quarterly distributions, $DX2G (+0.11%), $PR1J (+1.01%)).

I think that as long as I am still subject to my employer's investment restrictions, I will only make marginal changes to this. For a "fire and forget" portfolio, however, I could imagine switching to a 70/20/10 portfolio in the medium term. $WEBG (+0.89%), $HMEF (+0.25%), $SDIP (-0.52%) (@ING: please $SDIP (-0.52%) savings plan, thank you!). Let's see what the end of PFOF brings on the cost side, especially for savings plans.

So, that's it; thanks for your patience and perseverance. You're welcome to give me tips, but as I said, my hands are largely tied (and I don't think much of the crypto tulip bulbs until they become an actual means of payment, not just for buying sinister services on the dark web)...

Here's to a successful investment community (&thanks for having me)!

Played three times , once worked , twice not

🤷🏼‍♂️

In the end I parked money on MT - let's see where I finally get in with a return, the prices today are already tempting 🙈

And goodbye Stahl, it was (sometimes) nice with you!

Yesterday's figures were so-so, it went up at first, but as so often, you more than wiped out any rise the next day.

Maybe you'll break through the super-resistance and herald a new super-cycle, but the drop is probably over. I might pick up CLF again if it's weak, but I'll stay away from you in future.

Good bye <3

https://www.tradingview.com/x/edANiGjp/

New game, new luck 🥴

EMA 200 cleared (my SL point)

EMA 20 reached

Let's see if all the analysts' targets are reached 🤷🏼‍♂️

Weekly Thoughts on The Market - Countercyclical Investment Opportunity?

Hello everyone 👋🏻

This week there was a very interesting wall street betting podcast with a community known trader. (Callout @monchella
https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/mauerstrassenwetten/id1572657389?i=1000533215197 )

One of his statements that was surprising to me was that we were currently in a sideways market. Huh? Everything is going to the moon right now, every index is chasing from ATH to ATH. How can that be?

The answer is relatively simple. As a trader, he is always looking for momentum, for big daily percentages, post-volatile stocks. And so sooner or later ends up with small cap stocks. A look at the small cap index 🐘2000 shows that they are actually going sideways since February. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ERUT?p=^RUT&amp;.tsrc=fin-srch This is hardly surprising after a breathtaking rally last fall/winter.

It's an interesting development. And for investors/traders, with an intermediate time horizon of months or quarters (as is also the case for me, as I am mainly interested in Earnings, Macro Movements, Political Events etc. &amp; in this area quarters are a natural rhythm) will consider if there is a way to generate alpha here by investing countercyclically.

I once compiled the YTD performance of various baskets using python.

As expected, gold had a 0 correlation with the market and bonds had a slightly negative correlation with the market. This is relieving for now, as it still looks for a "normal" investing environment.

I find it interesting that the steel thesis of Arcelor Mittal $MT and Cleveland-Cliffs $CLF correlates so strongly with the overall market. My subjective impression so far has been that steel is responding more strongly to Jpow's "inflation is transitory". Semiconductor manufacturers are reacting more strongly to inflation.

The small caps correlated strongly negatively with the S&amp;P500 in 2021. However, I have added $ARKK and $ARKG to the basket at ⛵️. This brings the whole basket closer to the volatile growth stocks of the traders, but also makes the negative correlation look more extreme, since they have run negative YTD.

I conclude that the steel gang (or value/dividend investors) can hedge their portfolio well with chip makers or small cap growth stocks in the current market environment. Steel benefits from inflation, chips &amp; small caps benefit from passing.

Now might be a good time to rebalance into more small caps to frontrun a reversion-to-the-mean over the next 6 months. Or maybe not - stocks go up, down, sideways or in fucking loops. No one can see into the future.

Have a nice Saturday you 🤠