After divesting on my BDC positions last week, aiming a bit of rebalancing on my portfolio (both on currency and sectors as I was too exposed to finance and US), I'm buying $TUB (-1.28%) .
Although the company’s 2024 results were lower than 2023 (with net profit of €22.9M, down 37% YoY due to investments and delays), its stock price has continued to rise, and here's why:
· Solid Future Outlook: Tubacex has strong growth potential with a record-high order book of €1.5B, ensuring revenues well into 2026. This visibility is key to investor confidence, even during short-term profit setbacks.
· Dividend Boost: The company raised its dividend by 70% to €0.20 per share, signaling strong cash flow and a commitment to rewarding shareholders. That's also an important point for me, as BDCs pay a high dividend and I wanted to keep having some high dividend oriented stocks.
· Recovery in 2025: The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant rebound with a 23.9% YoY increase in EBITDA and a 130% increase in pre-tax profit. These results demonstrate Tubacex’s resilience and promising future.
· Strategic Investments: The completion of the Abu Dhabi plant and contracts with major players like Petrobras will fuel future growth, especially in high-value offshore tubes.
· Margin Improvement: Focus on premium products resulted in a record EBITDA margin of 17% in Q1 2025, contributing to an impressive 2024 dividend payout of €25M.
Looking ahead, Tubacex’s expansion into energy transition projects (e.g., hydrogen, CO₂ capture) positions it well for long-term growth. The company forecasts progressive improvement in 2025, with stronger second-half results driven by contracts with ADNOC and Petrobras.
In conclusion, Tubacex combines strong growth potential with near-term catalysts, high dividend and good momentum making it an attractive investment for me.