$HAG (+0.37%) but $RHM (-0.43%) and $R3NK (-1.54%) have not risen that much. I haven't found any news either except that Blackrock seems to have bought shares.

The EU wants to support its member states with arms loans. Poland's nationalist President Karol Nawrocki sees this as a threat to Poland's sovereignty.

The law in question had previously been passed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centre-left coalition and was intended to allow Poland to take out loans of 44 billion euros from the EU to modernize and arm its military.

As part of the so-called Safe Program (Security Action for Europe), the EU is offering low-cost loans totalling 150 billion euros to its member states to help them finance increased arms spending in order to arm themselves against a more aggressive Russia.

The SAFE program in Poland becomes a symbol of the conflict between the government camp and the president.

What does this mean for the arms industry?

$RHM (-0.43%)

$HAG (+0.37%)

$DE000TKMS001 (-0.62%)

$HO (+0.9%)

$LDO (-0.83%)

How do you see the veto?

So long

The military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran is causing strong market movements worldwide. Investors are shifting out of cyclical sectors and into security, energy and defense.

_________________________

Bitcoin $BTC (-2.27%) shows surprising stability

• 📈 In the meantime +8,1 %
• 💰 Just over 70,000 dollars
• Stabilization at around 69,000 dollars

Despite geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is apparently being used as a liquidity parking lot in the short term. At the same time, volatility remains high - further escalations could trigger new spikes.

_________________________

🛢 Oil prices up significantly

• Brent: + just under 6 %
• WTI: + a good 5 %
• In the meantime even +13 %

According to the report, the USA is currently no release from the strategic oil reserve. The market is still considered to be supplied, but the situation remains tense.

_________________________

🏦 Banks under pressure

The European banking index loses around 3,5 % - sharpest decline since April 2025.

Particularly affected:

• HSBC - $HSBA (-2.02%)
• Barclays - $BARC (-1.06%)
• Standard Chartered - $STAN (-2.13%)
• Deutsche Bank - $DBK (-2.79%)
• BNP Paribas - $BNP (-2.4%)
• BBVA - $BBVA (-1.81%)
• Commerzbank - $CBK (-2.35%)

In the USA also weaker until the US opening:

• Bank of America - $BAC (-0.54%)
• Citigroup - $C (-1.24%)

Reason: Strong Middle East business of many institutions and general risk aversion of investors.

_________________________

✈️ Travel industry collapses

High oil prices and uncertainty weigh heavily on tourism stocks:

• TUI - $TUI1 (-2.87%) (-11 %)
• Lufthansa - $LHA (-3.24%) (-11 %)

Flights to the region are canceled, travel offers suspended. Investors fear rising costs and falling booking figures.

_________________________

💎 Luxury stocks clearly in the red

The European luxury index loses almost 4 %.

Strongly affected:

• Richemont - $CFR (-0.4%)
• Swatch - $UHR (-0.86%)
• LVMH - $MC (-0.39%)
• Hermès - $RMS (-2.19%)
• Kering - $KER (-0.54%)
• Brunello Cucinelli - $BC (-1.67%)
• Moncler - $MONC (-0.95%)
• Ferragamo - $SFER (-0.43%)

Background:

Luxury is heavily dependent on global travel. Capital flows out of cyclical stocks.

_________________________

🛡 Defense stocks as clear winners

Geopolitical tensions drive up defense stocks:

• BAE Systems - $BA. (-1.05%)
• Lockheed Martin - $LMT (+1.12%)
• RTX - $RTX (+0.3%)
• Kratos - $KTOS (-1.74%)
• Hensoldt - $HAG (+0.37%)
• Leonardo - $LDO (-0.83%)
• Renk - $R3NK (-1.54%)
• Rheinmetall - $RHM (-0.43%)

Partial price increases of 3-6 %.

The focus is particularly on missile defense systems and possible increases in defense budgets.

_________________________

🚢 Shipping companies benefit

Transport values increase due to detour (avoidance of Hormuz, Suez Canal & Bab al-Mandab):

• Maersk - $MAERSK A (-1.39%)
• Hapag-Lloyd - $HLAG (-2.53%)
• Torm - $TRMD A (-0.52%)
• Frontline - $FRO (-0.05%)
• Hoegh Autoliners $HAUTO (-1.84%)

Reason: Shortage of transport capacity and speculation on rising freight rates.

_________________________

🥇 Gold in demand

• Gold price: +2,5 %

Profiteers in mining stocks:

• Evolution Mining - $EVN (-3.57%)
• Northern Star - $NST (-1.71%)

The sector has been showing relative strength for several days.

$4GLD (-2.11%)
$GOLD
$GOLD (-3.15%)

_________________________

📊 Market logic clearly recognizable

Winner:

🛡 Armaments

🚢 Shipping companies

🥇 Gold

₿ Bitcoin (short-term)

Losers:

🏦 Banks

✈️ Travel

💎 Luxury

_________________________

🔎 Conclusion

The market reaction follows the classic pattern of geopolitical crises:

• Risk is reduced
• Capital seeks security
• Energy prices rise
• Defense stocks benefit

The decisive factor remains whether the situation eases diplomatically - or escalates further.

_________________________

Source:

Reuters: Anleger greifen bei Bitcoin als "Fluchtvehikel" zu (Via TradingView)

$HAG (+0.37%) actually published great figures yesterday. Sales growth +10% to € 2.46 billion (only slightly below analysts' estimate of € 2.5 billion).

Incoming orders are at a record level of € 4.71 billion, i.e. twice the annual turnover. A plus of 62%. And this is where the stock market is probably taking a closer look, because despite planning certainty, bottlenecks in personnel and electronic components are causing worries when it comes to processing.

For me, this is still a great stock to hold and watch. Margin also strong at +0.3% to 18.4%.

Dividend increases by 10%. I continue to hold and am not worried by the short-term sell-off (6% today). I may also buy more when cash becomes available.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/20548020-rheinmetall-hensoldt-meldet-starke-zahlen-detail-laesst-aktie-abstuerzen

$DPZ (-0.25%)
$HIMS (-1.52%)
$KTOS (-1.74%)
$DOCN (-2.57%)
$FME (-0.84%)
$KDP (+0.16%)
$AMT (-1.18%)
$HD (-0.11%)
$WDAY (-0.31%)
$FSLR (-0.54%)
$TEM (-2.72%)
$O (+0.15%)
$MELI (-0.99%)
$HPQ (-0.03%)
$LCID (-0.6%)
$DRO (-2.39%)
$HSBA (-2.02%)
$FRE (-1.19%)
$AG1 (-3.77%)
$CRCL (-1.28%)
$UTHR (+0.89%)
$LDO (-0.83%)
$IDR (+0.65%)
$NTNX (-0.37%)
$PARA (-0.31%)
$NVDA (-1.73%)
$TTD (-0.5%)
$AI (-1.75%)
$CRM (-0.09%)
$SNPS (-0.92%)
$SNOW (-0.02%)
$PSTG (-1.73%)
$ZIP (-0.25%)
$ZM (-1.03%)
$NU (-1.22%)
$RR. (-2.15%)
$MUV2 (+0.11%)
$BIDU (-0.47%)
$CELH
$DTE (-5.53%)
$STLAM (+1.56%)
$WBD (+0.22%)
$HAG (+0.37%)
$QBTS (-3.23%)
$LKNCY (-0.71%)
$BABA (-1.78%)
$G24 (-0.69%)
$HTZ (-3.17%)
$PUM (-0.35%)
$AIXA (-1.17%)
$RUN (-1.83%)
$INTU (-0.03%)
$WULF (-2.81%)
$MNST (-0.43%)
$SQ (-0.56%)
$ADSK (-0.32%)
$MP (-1.91%)
$RKLB (-3.52%)
$SOUN
$SMR
$CRWV (-3.4%)
$CPNG (-1.52%)
$DUOL

$HAG (+0.37%) Hensoldt has received orders from KNDS to equip combat and infantry fighting vehicles with digital optronics. The MDAX company put the total volume at more than 400 million euros. The focus is on an order worth around 290 million euros to equip the Schakal wheeled infantry fighting vehicle. In addition, Hensoldt is to equip the Leopard 2 A8 main battle tank with digital vision systems. According to further information, this order has a volume of more than 110 million euros.

After looking today to see which European share could achieve the highest return in 2026, my choice fell on Hensoldt due to the good news in order to part with my small tranche in return for Bloom Energy with - 4.79%, which has already been offset💪

What happens if you invest too little for years? There is a need to catch up.

And that is exactly what happened to many countries within NATO. When Russia's war of aggression made it clear that even the theoretical investment target for armaments of 2% was far too low, the countries were completely overwhelmed.

As a result, all companies only remotely involved in armaments went up: $RHM (-0.43%)
$ONDS (-2.58%)
$MILDEF (-2.62%)
$AIR (-1.94%)
$BA. (-1.05%)
$HAG (+0.37%)

But even before the Russian war, there was already a problem with security spending within the EU: "capital formation" spending, which primarily includes long-lived military expenditure, was around 20% within Europe for a long time. In the USA, which is regarded as a model pupil for security spending, this figure is 40%.

And this is where Mildef comes into play. A Scandinavian company that, in my eyes, still flies somewhat under the radar. Mildef produces IT hardware for the military and defense (which is part of the 20%). As the company itself describes its business model very well, here is the graphic from the investor presentation:

What is not shown is the fluctuation in demand, which is caused by being relatively at the beginning of the value chain:

This bullwhip effect can also be seen in many other sectors, especially in industry, where many value creation steps build on each other. We are currently at a peak in demand from the consumer side. This has already been priced into the stock market for many companies, but not yet to the same extent for Mildef. In addition, spending is set to rise from 1% of GDP to 5% in many countries. Of course, these tasks will also flow into the countries' infrastructure, but I think it will quickly become clear that there is a need to catch up AND that there is long-term sustainable demand.

Mildef: Small but mighty

Mildef occupies a small niche within the defense industry with its products. It is not worthwhile for many large corporations to enter niches, as the investments are greater than the revenue opportunities. In addition, Mildef has little competition from smaller companies. Why?

The industry is strictly controlled. Although anyone can take part in a military tender, there are special regulations that are difficult to fulfill without special expertise. There is no cheap competition from Asia, as suppliers from Europe are preferred for security products. This is the reason for EBIT margins of more than 10%.

Regional distribution of sales

Sales are generated primarily in the Nordic countries. However, a new acquisition will soon change this. More on this in a moment.

Growth targets

The management has ambitious growth targets. In recent years, these have been achieved or significantly exceeded. Average sales growth over the last three years has been over 40% per year. I also expect sales growth of more than 40 % YoY for the current financial year. This is due to the Roda acquisition. More on this in a moment.

The EBIT margin of over 15% has not yet been achieved. Mildef likes to calculate with highly adjusted figures. However, the deviations from reality are so great that I would rather regard the 15% as a long-term target. EBIT is not particularly stable overall, but this is justifiable in view of the growth ambitions. However, this makes it more difficult for the valuation.

Roda takeover

Roda will bring further significant growth in FY 2025. The business model is similar to that of Mildef. Since a large part of the sales for 2025 is already known, I have tried to estimate the total growth and arrive at around 57% growth with the current 9M figures, Q4 from 2025 and a quarter of Roda's annual sales. The calculation is highly simplified. Sales could grow much faster in the last quarter.

Financial impact of the Roda takeover

Although debt has doubled, at around 1× EBITDA it is completely 1× EBITDA, however, it is completely within reasonable limits. This is due to the fact that the takeover was partly financed with new shares. Shareholders were diluted by 18%. As an investor, you don't like to see that at first, but the takeover was strategically very important: Mildef was previously mainly active in Scandinavia. The Roda takeover gives the company better access to the rest of Europe.

Valuation

Valuing Mildef is not easy. This is not because future sales are difficult to estimate. Backlog and conservative assumptions make it easy to do.

The problem, however, is choosing a sensible multiple. Typically, you are looking for

• a constant, predictable key figure (such as EV/sales, P/E ratio, etc.)
• Companies from the same market
• Companies with similar growth

Due to the Roda acquisition and the generally strong growth the EBIT margin fluctuates strongly. I do not wish to use the adjusted management figures as they are adjusted accordingly.

There are also hardly any comparable companies. Mildef is active in a niche market. Although there are similar companies, they either lack growth or have lower margins. Both factors directly influence the multiple paid on the stock exchange.

In the end, I opted for a P/E valuation. However, this method has weaknesses, mainly because turnover is a very simple key figure.

In my model, I arrived at an expected return of 18.7 %. What is important here is that the growth assumptions for the future are significantly lower than those of the management.

I used EBIT as a second valuation approach. This resulted in a return of only 4.4 % per year. However, as already mentioned, EBIT is not stable and therefore probably not a suitable estimation parameter.

So which valuation makes sense?

I do not know. However, it is clear that the return will be very low or very high depending on the assumptions. Hence my question to the community: Which valuation method makes sense here? Perhaps you know an approach that fits better?

Thank you very much for reading. I wish you a Merry Christmas and a relaxing break from the stock market🎄

As always, I look forward to your feedback. Criticism is also welcome, after all, we all want to improve :)

p.s: I always find the overview of long posts here not so good, so I try to keep the introductions short. There is of course a lot more to say about Mildef. How do you see it? Do you prefer detailed posts or do you like it a bit clearer?

$HAG (+0.37%) has to cope with a small slump after an analyst from JPM lowered his thumb. The CEO sees it differently and buys for 220k.

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/hensoldt-aktie-vertane-chancen-840496

For me it's a clear case. Wait and see and add if necessary. Let's see where the bottom is today. I would find €80 very attractive. What do you think?

$HAG (+0.37%)

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/20136695-analyse-flash-dz-bank-belaesst-hensoldt-kaufen-fairer-wert-116-euro