Unfortunately, refueling at the pumps is not 🥲

I hope that the juicy additional income in the oil and LNG sector will now lead to an increase in dividends.

Hey everyone,

I've just caught myself changing my own plans and views as soon as the market environment changes.

BP has been bobbing around in the red in my portfolio for months and not so long ago I said to myself: as soon as it's up, I'll dump it... It will happen at some point. Now the time has come. And I'm not so sure anymore :-) Now I think: I'm taking a long-term view. They pay dividends regularly. And without withholding tax. And especially if such a situation arises again at some point, it doesn't hurt to have a share that stabilizes the portfolio.

What are you doing at the moment? Hold or sell? $SHEL (+2,59 %) $BP $VAR

Hello everyone.

I am currently working on the following topic $SHEL (+2,59 %) . I'm not so sure whether I shouldn't make a temporary partial sale. I bought 250 shares for €11.40 back in 2020/2021. A partial sale of 100 pcs was made at almost 150% price gain at that time.

So I still have 150 shares.

Due to two portfolio moves, I am "only" shown a profit of approx. 80%, which in fact should be something in the 200% - 250% range.

I receive 8, ... % dividend p.a. which is not wrong, which is why I am considering whether it makes sense to trigger the tax event at all. The share price of €39 will not be maintained, let's be realistic, which is why I'm wondering whether to sell.

I also still have $OXY (+4,49 %) 138 shares for 1 year, 2/3 of which I will liquidate, as it was more of a medium-term bet. That would also be a factor that speaks against a partial sale of shell.

I think the world $VWRL (-1,1 %) will recover and whether oil is at its peak I don't know.

The two oil stocks make up approx. 11% of my total portfolio.

I am actually well diversified (etf/stocks/real estate/gold/bonds,call money)

$SHEL (+2,59 %)

see to it that gasoline becomes cheaper again

Hello everyone

How are you all doing? I hope you are well! 😃

I'd be interested to know which stocks are currently on your watchlist?

I currently have the following stocks on my watchlist:

Financials:

$SOFI (-2,29 %) (I think they would be a good addition to Visa in my portfolio. Thanks for your analysis @Klein-Anleger)

Industrials:

$SIE (-3,12 %), $SU (-3,8 %) & $SIKA (-2,23 %) (I am still looking for 1-2 stocks in the industrial sector. Siemens looks quite interesting at the moment).

Consumer:

$MC (-1,17 %), $OR (-0,9 %), $CDI (-1,46 %) & $RMS (-2,89 %) (A consumer share is actually still missing in my portfolio. But I don't think it's a good idea to buy something now under duress).

Other interesting companies/ ETFs:

I would also like to have a commodity ETF (silver, uranium & rare earths) and an EM ETF in my portfolio. $NFLX (-0,32 %) is also very interesting.

Most recently I have $BV0Z6G (-1,53 %) and 250 $SHEL (+2,59 %) shares. $NOVO B (-1,15 %) I bought more at a bad time, but will remain invested and buy more if necessary. At $IREN (-4,28 %) I bought 100 more shares today.

I wish you all a successful day!

Best regards

Chris

$PETR4 (+4,13 %)

Ticker: PETR4

Stock exchange: B3 (Brazil)

Sector: Oil & Gas (focus on offshore & pre-salt)

Current share price (last): approx. € 6.50

Petrobras is one of the largest integrated energy companies in the world and the dominant oil company in Brazil. Those who are only guided by headlines quickly overlook what is actually happening operationally.

Business model & strategic position

Petrobras covers large parts of the value chain:

• Exploration & production
• Refinery
• Transportation & Export

The focus is clearly on the Brazilian pre-salt fields - one of the most productive offshore areas in the world.

Advantages:

• High production volume per well
• Comparatively low production costs
• Technological leadership in the deepwater sector

The business remains profitable even at moderate oil prices.

Fundamental key figures (rounded, latest published annual figures)

• Sales: ~100-110 billion USD
• EBITDA: ~45-50 billion USD
• Net profit: ~20-25 billion USD
• Free cash flow: double-digit billions
• P/E ratio: often in the 3-5 range
• Debt: massively reduced since 2016

A company with this level of cash flow strength is currently trading at a valuation that is otherwise more likely to be seen in structural problem cases.

Dividends - the often underestimated factor

A central point is the dividend policy.

Petrobras has regularly paid high dividends in recent years - at times with double-digit yields.

Important here:

• The dividends are strongly linked to cash flow and the oil price.
• In strong years, considerable amounts were returned to shareholders.
• Even with a more moderate payout, the company remains a clear cash flow generator.

Of course, dividends are not guaranteed and are politically influenced. But historically, Petrobras has been highly attractive to income investors.

Political risk - a reality, but priced in

As a state-dominated company, political influence remains a factor:

• Investment priorities
• pricing policy
• Dividend strategy

However, it is precisely this risk that explains the extremely low valuation.

Anyone buying a P/E ratio of 3-5 is also buying the risk discount.

Scenarios up to 2030

It remains crucial:

• Oil price
• Production development
• capital allocation
• political framework conditions

Conservative scenario:

• Oil price ~70 USD
• Stable production
• Moderate dividends
• → Valuation level in the range of € 8-12 per share appears fundamentally justifiable.

More optimistic scenario:

• stable demand
• disciplined investments
• pragmatic policy
• → € 12-18 not unrealistic in the long term until 2030.

This is not a promise, but a range that can be derived from cash flow and valuation multiples.

Classification

Petrobras is:

• not a growth tech stock
• not an ESG favorite
• not a momentum trade

But it is:

• a highly profitable commodity producer
• with globally relevant reserves
• strong cash flows
• attractive dividend history
• and a very low valuation

Whether you invest depends on your own risk tolerance.

But to call a company with billions in cash flow, falling debt and globally competitive production costs "dead" across the board does not seem very number-based, to say the least.

Nevertheless, my personal opinion is that no investment advice should encourage anyone to buy or sell!

$PETR4 (+4,13 %)
$PETR3 (+6,45 %)
$PBR (+4,19 %)
$E (+4,24 %)
$SHEL (+2,59 %)

#dividends
#dividente
#kgv
#energy
#öl
#gas

On February 5, 2026, the company published $SHEL (+2,59 %) published its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2025. The figures show a challenging final quarter, while the return of capital to shareholders is being further expanded.

Key financial figures Q4 2025 Compared to the third quarter of 2025, Shell recorded declines in its key earnings figures in the last three months of the year:

• Adjusted Earnings: Profit fell to USD 3.26 billion. This corresponds to a decline of around 40% compared to the previous quarter (USD 5.43 billion).
• Net income: Profit attributable to shareholders amounted to USD 4.13 billion (Q3: USD 5.32 billion).
• Operating cash flow: Cash flow from operating activities fell to USD 9.44 billion.
• Debt: Net debt rose to USD 45.7 billion at the end of the year.

Reasons for the development Management cited several factors that had a negative impact on earnings in the fourth quarter:

• Tax effects: Unfavorable tax movements, including deferred taxes, weighed on earnings.
• Margin pressure: Earnings were impacted by significantly lower margins in the refining and marketing business.
• Price level: Lower realized prices for oil and gas had a negative impact.
• Bright spot: By contrast, higher trading volumes in the LNG (liquefied natural gas) segment had a positive effect, cushioning a sharper decline.

Full year 2025 Looking at the full financial year, the following picture emerges:

• Total profit amounted to USD 17.84 billion (+11% compared to 2024).
• Adjusted annual profit, on the other hand, fell by 22% to USD 18.53 billion.

Shareholder return (dividend & buybacks) Despite the weaker quarterly result, Shell is continuing its policy of capital reduction:

• Dividend: The quarterly dividend will be increased by 4% to USD 0.372 per share (previously USD 0.358).
• Share buybacks: Shell announced a new USD 3.5 billion share buyback program. This is to be completed by the publication of the Q1 figures 2026.

Summary Shell closes 2025 with an operationally weaker fourth quarter, mainly impacted by margin pressure and tax effects. However, the full-year results and the announced dividend increase and new share buybacks continue to signal a focus on shareholder value.

If there is a military escalation or a direct attack by the US in Iran (or in the Middle East in general), three sectors tend to react most strongly: armaments (defense), energy (oil/gas) and safe havens (gold/precious metals).

1. defense industry (defense & aerospace)

This sector benefits directly from the expectation of government orders for ammunition, missile systems, drones and logistics. The focus here is on US companies, but European stocks also often move up.

$LMT (+0,9 %)

$RTX (-0,12 %)

$NOC (+0,91 %)

$GD (+1,14 %)

$RHM (-0,73 %)

ETF option (broad diversification):

iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (focus on US defense):

VanEck Defense UCITS ETF.

VanEck Defense ETF: WKN: A3D9M1 / ISIN: IE000YYE6WK5

2. energy sector (oil & gas)

Iraq is a major oil producer. A conflict in this region immediately fuels fears of supply shortages or blockades (e.g. Strait of Hormuz). The oil price (Brent/WTI) usually rises sharply, which increases the margins of the major oil companies (Big Oil).

$CVX (+3,76 %)

$TTE (+2,9 %)

$OXY (+4,49 %)

$SHEL (+2,59 %)

$XOM (+4,43 %)

Certificates on the oil price:

If you want to bet directly on the commodity price (Brent Crude Oil), you often use ETCs (Exchange Traded Commodities).

WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil: WKN: A1N49P/M/N / ISIN: JE00B78CGV99

3. safe havens (gold & dollar)

In times of military uncertainty, capital flees from risky investments (such as tech stocks) into so-called "safe havens".

Gold: Considered the number 1 crisis currency.

US dollar: Often appreciates as it is considered the most stable currency, which in turn burdens export-oriented US companies, but can benefit dollar holders.

$4GLD (-2,21 %)

$ABX (-4,1 %)

Important risk warnings

"Sell the news": Markets often price in conflicts before the first shot is fired. As soon as the attack actually takes place, it can paradoxically happen that prices (e.g. oil, gold, silver)

prices (e.g. oil, gold, silver) fall because the uncertainty has disappeared ("sell on good news, buy on bad news" - or vice versa).

Overall market reaction: While armaments and oil rise, broad indices such as the DAX or the S&P 500 often fall initially, as transportation costs rise (bad for airlines such as Lufthansa) and consumer sentiment falls.

Political intervention: If the oil price is too high, the USA often intervenes in strategic oil reserves, which can quickly reduce the price pressure on energy stocks.