$PETR4 (-2,06 %)

Ticker: PETR4

Stock exchange: B3 (Brazil)

Sector: Oil & Gas (focus on offshore & pre-salt)

Current share price (last): approx. € 6.50

Petrobras is one of the largest integrated energy companies in the world and the dominant oil company in Brazil. Those who are only guided by headlines quickly overlook what is actually happening operationally.

Business model & strategic position

Petrobras covers large parts of the value chain:

• Exploration & production
• Refinery
• Transportation & Export

The focus is clearly on the Brazilian pre-salt fields - one of the most productive offshore areas in the world.

Advantages:

• High production volume per well
• Comparatively low production costs
• Technological leadership in the deepwater sector

The business remains profitable even at moderate oil prices.

Fundamental key figures (rounded, latest published annual figures)

• Sales: ~100-110 billion USD
• EBITDA: ~45-50 billion USD
• Net profit: ~20-25 billion USD
• Free cash flow: double-digit billions
• P/E ratio: often in the 3-5 range
• Debt: massively reduced since 2016

A company with this level of cash flow strength is currently trading at a valuation that is otherwise more likely to be seen in structural problem cases.

Dividends - the often underestimated factor

A central point is the dividend policy.

Petrobras has regularly paid high dividends in recent years - at times with double-digit yields.

Important here:

• The dividends are strongly linked to cash flow and the oil price.
• In strong years, considerable amounts were returned to shareholders.
• Even with a more moderate payout, the company remains a clear cash flow generator.

Of course, dividends are not guaranteed and are politically influenced. But historically, Petrobras has been highly attractive to income investors.

Political risk - a reality, but priced in

As a state-dominated company, political influence remains a factor:

• Investment priorities
• pricing policy
• Dividend strategy

However, it is precisely this risk that explains the extremely low valuation.

Anyone buying a P/E ratio of 3-5 is also buying the risk discount.

Scenarios up to 2030

It remains crucial:

• Oil price
• Production development
• capital allocation
• political framework conditions

Conservative scenario:

• Oil price ~70 USD
• Stable production
• Moderate dividends
• → Valuation level in the range of € 8-12 per share appears fundamentally justifiable.

More optimistic scenario:

• stable demand
• disciplined investments
• pragmatic policy
• → € 12-18 not unrealistic in the long term until 2030.

This is not a promise, but a range that can be derived from cash flow and valuation multiples.

Classification

Petrobras is:

• not a growth tech stock
• not an ESG favorite
• not a momentum trade

But it is:

• a highly profitable commodity producer
• with globally relevant reserves
• strong cash flows
• attractive dividend history
• and a very low valuation

Whether you invest depends on your own risk tolerance.

But to call a company with billions in cash flow, falling debt and globally competitive production costs "dead" across the board does not seem very number-based, to say the least.

Nevertheless, my personal opinion is that no investment advice should encourage anyone to buy or sell!

$PETR4 (-2,06 %)
$PETR3 (-1,29 %)
$PBR (-1,35 %)
$E (-1,48 %)
$SHEL (-1,72 %)

#dividends
#dividente
#kgv
#energy
#öl
#gas

On February 5, 2026, the company published $SHEL (-1,72 %) published its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2025. The figures show a challenging final quarter, while the return of capital to shareholders is being further expanded.

Key financial figures Q4 2025 Compared to the third quarter of 2025, Shell recorded declines in its key earnings figures in the last three months of the year:

• Adjusted Earnings: Profit fell to USD 3.26 billion. This corresponds to a decline of around 40% compared to the previous quarter (USD 5.43 billion).
• Net income: Profit attributable to shareholders amounted to USD 4.13 billion (Q3: USD 5.32 billion).
• Operating cash flow: Cash flow from operating activities fell to USD 9.44 billion.
• Debt: Net debt rose to USD 45.7 billion at the end of the year.

Reasons for the development Management cited several factors that had a negative impact on earnings in the fourth quarter:

• Tax effects: Unfavorable tax movements, including deferred taxes, weighed on earnings.
• Margin pressure: Earnings were impacted by significantly lower margins in the refining and marketing business.
• Price level: Lower realized prices for oil and gas had a negative impact.
• Bright spot: By contrast, higher trading volumes in the LNG (liquefied natural gas) segment had a positive effect, cushioning a sharper decline.

Full year 2025 Looking at the full financial year, the following picture emerges:

• Total profit amounted to USD 17.84 billion (+11% compared to 2024).
• Adjusted annual profit, on the other hand, fell by 22% to USD 18.53 billion.

Shareholder return (dividend & buybacks) Despite the weaker quarterly result, Shell is continuing its policy of capital reduction:

• Dividend: The quarterly dividend will be increased by 4% to USD 0.372 per share (previously USD 0.358).
• Share buybacks: Shell announced a new USD 3.5 billion share buyback program. This is to be completed by the publication of the Q1 figures 2026.

Summary Shell closes 2025 with an operationally weaker fourth quarter, mainly impacted by margin pressure and tax effects. However, the full-year results and the announced dividend increase and new share buybacks continue to signal a focus on shareholder value.

If there is a military escalation or a direct attack by the US in Iran (or in the Middle East in general), three sectors tend to react most strongly: armaments (defense), energy (oil/gas) and safe havens (gold/precious metals).

1. defense industry (defense & aerospace)

This sector benefits directly from the expectation of government orders for ammunition, missile systems, drones and logistics. The focus here is on US companies, but European stocks also often move up.

$LMT (-1,08 %)

$RTX (-2,54 %)

$NOC (-1,42 %)

$GD (+0,6 %)

$RHM (-3,58 %)

ETF option (broad diversification):

iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (focus on US defense):

VanEck Defense UCITS ETF.

VanEck Defense ETF: WKN: A3D9M1 / ISIN: IE000YYE6WK5

2. energy sector (oil & gas)

Iraq is a major oil producer. A conflict in this region immediately fuels fears of supply shortages or blockades (e.g. Strait of Hormuz). The oil price (Brent/WTI) usually rises sharply, which increases the margins of the major oil companies (Big Oil).

$CVX (+0,28 %)

$TTE (-3,37 %)

$OXY (-0,39 %)

$SHEL (-1,72 %)

$XOM (-0,9 %)

Certificates on the oil price:

If you want to bet directly on the commodity price (Brent Crude Oil), you often use ETCs (Exchange Traded Commodities).

WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil: WKN: A1N49P/M/N / ISIN: JE00B78CGV99

3. safe havens (gold & dollar)

In times of military uncertainty, capital flees from risky investments (such as tech stocks) into so-called "safe havens".

Gold: Considered the number 1 crisis currency.

US dollar: Often appreciates as it is considered the most stable currency, which in turn burdens export-oriented US companies, but can benefit dollar holders.

$4GLD (-3,68 %)

$ABX (-7,35 %)

Important risk warnings

"Sell the news": Markets often price in conflicts before the first shot is fired. As soon as the attack actually takes place, it can paradoxically happen that prices (e.g. oil, gold, silver)

prices (e.g. oil, gold, silver) fall because the uncertainty has disappeared ("sell on good news, buy on bad news" - or vice versa).

Overall market reaction: While armaments and oil rise, broad indices such as the DAX or the S&P 500 often fall initially, as transportation costs rise (bad for airlines such as Lufthansa) and consumer sentiment falls.

Political intervention: If the oil price is too high, the USA often intervenes in strategic oil reserves, which can quickly reduce the price pressure on energy stocks.

About a handful of countries have no withholding tax at all or levy one so low that it is almost unnoticeable.

"These countries in which private investors in Germany are not subject to withholding tax include Ireland, Liechtenstein, Hong Kong and Singapore," says Stefanie Dyballa, Portfolio Manager at KSW Vermögensverwaltung in Nuremberg.

However, the Irish withholding tax is only low if the company is based in the country. Other countries with investor-friendly regulations are Bermuda, Brazil, Canada and Thailand.

However, the most important economy that leaves German shareholders untouched is the United Kingdom. "The UK has many attractive dividend payers to offer, especially in the energy and financial sectors," says the asset manager, naming the likes of $SHEL (-1,72 %) Shell, $BP. (-0,2 %) BP and $HSBA (-3,27 %) HSBC.

Hermann Ecker, authorized signatory and portfolio manager at Bayerische Vermögen in Bad Reichenhall, also immediately thinks of reliable dividend payers from the island, including $DGE (-2,29 %) Diageo, $RKT (-4,06 %) Reckitt Benckiser, $RIO (-4 %) Rio Tinto, $IMB (-1,32 %) Imperial Brands, $SGE (+1,35 %) Sage Group and $ULVR (-2,57 %) Unilever. The selection shows just how diverse the withholding tax-friendly UK capital market is.

However, it is worthwhile for investors to consider other companies in addition to the well-known names: Sometimes they offer even higher dividend yields. WELT has compiled a list of 19 shares that are listed in countries with zero or low taxes and have also shown a stable performance over the past twelve months.

The last criterion is intended to protect investors from falling into a value trap, i.e. investing in a company with an eroding business model. The British drinks group Diageo, for example, is regarded as a solid dividend payer, but its share price has fallen by a third over the past year. The Diageo dividend yield of just under five percent is little consolation.

By contrast, the British insurance giant $AV. (-1,93 %) Aviva. The London-based company has roots dating back to 1696 and is one of the leading providers of pensions and insurance in its core markets of the UK, Ireland and Canada. Thanks to a focus on cash generation, Aviva is considered a solid basic investment that currently offers its shareholders a dividend yield of around 5.5%, which is only reduced by the German capital gains tax plus solidarity surcharge.

The financial services provider Legal & General, founded in 1836, can also look back on a long tradition. $LGEN (-2,41 %) Legal & General can also look back on a long tradition. As a heavyweight in the areas of asset management and pension insurance, the London-based group has a comparatively cyclically resistant business model that benefits from long-term demographic trends. Shareholders receive a current yield of 8.5 percent, making Legal & General one of the highest-yielding stocks in the UK index. The same can be said of the $PHNX (-5,53 %) Phoenix Group, whose yield is an impressive 7.8 percent.

The mining group $RIO (-4 %) Rio Tinto. However, the company is benefiting from the global appetite for raw materials. Rio Tinto is one of the world's largest producers of iron ore, aluminum and copper. Investors are betting on the indispensable role of metals in the global energy transition. The dividend payout is four percent.

The yield is more than twice as high for the Brazilian competitor $VALE3 (-6,61 %) Vale. Founded in 1942, the Rio de Janeiro-based mining group is the largest nickel and iron ore producer in the world. Experience shows that the size of the dividend depends on the ups and downs of commodity prices. As these are currently pointing upwards, shareholders have a good chance of achieving a dividend yield of almost ten percent on their capital investment this year. There is no withholding tax.

More speculative are investments in Greek financial institutions such as $TELL (-3,49 %) National Bank of Greece. The bank was on the brink of collapse during the euro debt crisis and had to be rescued with state aid. However, business is now flourishing again. Thanks to this economic comeback and the adjusted balance sheet, shareholders of National Bank of Greece should be hoping for a dividend yield in the region of four to five percent.

Financial institutions are also among the most interesting investments in Asia. The city state of Singapore, which does not levy withholding tax and is considered one of the most stable financial centers in the world, is home to the $D05 (+0,11 %) DBS Group. Founded in 1968, the institution is considered one of the best banks in the world and has already been described as the "Fort Knox" of the Asian banking world. Investors appreciate the quarterly distribution, which amounts to four percent per year, and the conservative balance sheet management of the DBS Group.

The Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, founded in 1932, also offers a return of around four percent. $OVCHY Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, founded in 1932. It is the longest established bank in Singapore and offers a mix of banking, asset management and insurance, which speaks for diversified earnings. However, the Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation is not quite as dynamic as the DBS Group.

The conglomerate $J36 (+0,45 %) Jardine Matheson has its roots in Hong Kong, but the shares are now listed in Bermuda. Founded in 1832, the company is a legend in Asian economic history with a broadly diversified portfolio ranging from real estate to retail. Little known: The financial services provider $IVZ (-2,42 %) Invesco, which stands for the most popular Nasdaq ETF QQQ. The investment company's shares have risen by almost half over the past twelve months and also offer a dividend yield of three percent.

If you want to invest specifically in Hong Kong, you can stick with the infrastructure group $1038 (+2,07 %) CK Infrastructure. Founded in 1996, the company belongs to the empire of tycoon Li Ka-shing. It invests globally in energy suppliers, waterworks and transportation infrastructure, which ensures stability. Investors receive a return of around four percent.

As far as the former British crown colony is concerned, Dyballa has other ideas: "Financial and telecommunications stocks listed in Hong Kong, such as the $3988 (+1,11 %) Bank of China and $941 China Mobile often offer stable and attractive dividends." And she also has a tip for Singapore: "Real estate stocks or REITs that are less well-known in this country also offer stable cash flows and high dividend yields," says the portfolio manager.

Source: Text (excerpt) WELT, 24.01.26

Hello everyone

I thought it was time for an introduction to me and my current portfolio.

Briefly about me, I'm Chris, 27 years old, work in IT and moved to Switzerland a good 7 months ago. I'm definitely very happy with my decision, even though it wasn't easy.

Apart from that, I love good food and am absolutely fascinated by cars and motor racing. I'm neglecting traveling a bit at the moment, but I also really enjoy it.

My dad laid the foundation stone of my depot when I was born. I saw it for the first time after my 18th birthday and was pretty excited. Unfortunately, I wasn't excited enough to continue with it. I then became more interested at the end of 2024, beginning of 2025 and so it was that I made my first transaction in April and $NVDA (-0,71 %) bought shares.

My approach is to build a highly focused portfolio of high-quality individual stocks. Around 10% of my portfolio is currently in $BTC (-1,05 %) , $ETH (-2,75 %) & $Sol are currently invested.

There are basically two reasons why I decided against a core-satellite structure.

A fee of CHF 50 + stamp duty has to be paid for each transaction and therefore a savings plan does not make sense in my opinion. My basic idea was to save in 3 different ETFs each month.

Furthermore, I find $BRK.B (+0,74 %) as a core position more attractive than an ETF, as they benefit from their capital strength especially in times of crisis and can make strategic acquisitions.

My next sales are as follows:

• Sale $BV0Z6G (-2,92 %)
• 
  25% partial sale of my $SHEL (-1,72 %) position

Once the sales are completed, my cash position will be around 20%. I currently have the following shares on my list that are eligible for purchase:

• $V (+0,88 %)
• 
  $DB1 (+3,37 %)
• 
  $MSFT (+1,87 %)
• 
  $PRCT
• 
  $OR (-3,48 %)

$RKLB (-1,65 %) I actually wanted to buy this stock in December, but couldn't because it is not traded at my bank.

It is quite possible that the portfolio performance is not quite right because I have linked the positions manually, as getquin does not offer a link to my bank.

Thanks also to those who post so many interesting articles on strategies and reviews of stocks here, such as @Tenbagger2024, @Multibagger, @Epi, @BamBamInvest & many many others! Thank you, thank you, thank you!

To anticipate the obvious question of why I don't transfer my custody account to another provider due to high fees and limited share availability:

• I work for a bank and therefore have compliance regulations that restrict me somewhat in that regard.

Please let me know what you think of my custody account. 😃

Have a nice Sunday evening!

Best regards

Chris

Novo Nordisk 3.0% $NOVO B (-1,95 %) NVO

LVMH 2.0% $LVMH

Pernod Ricard 6.35% $RI (-2,35 %)

Imperial Brands 5.5% $IMB (-1,32 %)

BAT 6.2% $BATS (-2,64 %)

Sunrise Communications 8.00%

Nestle 4.05% $NESN (-0,99 %)

Roche 2.85% $ROG (+0,03 %)

Novartis 3.07% $NOVN (-1,42 %)

Shell 4.07% $SHEL (-1,72 %)

German Post 3.86% $DHL (-2,43 %)

Swisscom 3.75% $SCMN (+1,34 %)

German Telekom 3.52% $DTE (-0,62 %)

Strabag 2.72% $STR (-2,03 %)

Vonovia 4.82% $VNA (-3,15 %)

BASF 5.01% $BAS (-2,95 %)

Puma 2.8% $PUMA

Hannover Re 3.62% $HNR1 (-1,85 %)

Munich Re 3.8% $MUV2 (-3,42 %)

Allianz 4.00% $ALV (-2,77 %)

BP 5.76% $BP. (-0,2 %)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1zt05UZlehInr81iaZMdY5?si=e676f0a812014943

YouTube

https://youtu.be/BpCIIJYfxHA

Appple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/125-20-europ%C3%A4ische-dividenden-aktien/id1695869891?i=1000744769342

A brief look back:

I started investing 5 years ago (still 23 years young at the time).

At the time, I was still in the final stages of my dual studies when Corona suddenly hit.

My original plan to buy my own car was quickly changed to a loan-financed purchase.

The 17k that became available went public in April 2020. Looking back, there was probably no better time.

First learning:

The father of my current fiancée advised me to invest in 50% Msci World $IWDA (-0,95 %) and 50% Dax $DBXD (-2,47 %) to invest. This in the form of two ETFs.

Without any knowledge of the stock market, I went to my bank (Sparkasse) and told the advisor that I would like to invest in the two ETFs mentioned and open a custody account for them.

I was presented with two funds. Deka Champions and DWS Dax or something like that.

When I asked her that these were not ETFs but funds, she simply said that the benchmark was the same and that the nice saleswoman would also invest in the products mentioned.

So 10k was invested. The 3% and 4% issue and sales charges were thus paid.

Later, after I got to grips with the stock market, these were liquidated and I switched to Smart Broker for individual shares and Trade Republic for ETFs.

2nd learning what goes up can also go down:

One of my first stocks was $KO (-0,35 %) and $ALV (-2,77 %) the good $ETSY (+1,34 %) . EK was 53€ and about 1.5k was invested.

Etsy went up to 110€ and I made my first 50% partial sale ever. Etsy rose to 240€ and nothing was done on my part. Etsy sinks to 90€ and I got back in with the partial sale. Etsy was finally sold completely at 70€.

My first learning on individual stocks was followed by the second. FOMO:

Cannabis = Bevcanna Enterprise 1.5k invested 99% loss

Independent mining corp. = 1k invested sold with 60% loss.

Today I am very thankful that I only paid 2k in tuition fees. I seriously believe that it saved me from bigger losses in the following years.

3rd learning:

An investment in a pure ETF $VWRL (-2,36 %) from the beginning would have given me almost 15k more return by 2024.

I spent 2022 to 2024 reducing a difference of almost 20k, from mistakes made in 2020 and 2021, to my what if portfolio (ETF only). In 2025, however, I settled the amount for the first time to now plus minus zero through my portfolio outperformance.

4th learning:

In all this time, I have been studying the stock market in depth. I don't think I would have gone long with a pure ETF. All the non-fiction books, conferences, streams and videos have also given me a more comprehensive understanding of world events beyond the stock market. I have also made a noticeable change on the subject of money. And no, I don't turn over every penny. My savings ratio is 50% consumption / vacation and 50% retirement provision.

My latest learning:

Being debt free at 29 and having 100k gives you peace of mind. You shouldn't live your 20s in complete consumption, but you shouldn't oversleep either. My trips around the world to Asia, Central America, Europe and Africa, some with friends, some with family, have brought me more than just money.

But everyone is different. I am happy to have taken the middle path.

I have now increased my initial savings rate of €400 per month to €840. However, the €800 for vacations and consumption are just as important to me.

Thoughts on my current portfolio:

Trade Republic:

About the ETFs $IWDA (-0,95 %)
$EIMI (-4,11 %) and $XSX6 (-2,5 %) I don't have to say anything. This is my core investment.

$SGBS (-4,23 %) and $GDXJ (-8,36 %) are my way of diversifying with gold. When I added gold to my savings plan on December 31, 2024, both positions almost automatically reached the 5% weighting.

What is new $VNA (-3,15 %) . I selected these at the end of 2025 together with $O (-0,56 %) for my 10% weighting in the real estate sector. For me, Vonovia is wrongly valued too much as an interest rate bet. Fundamentally, there is a lot right with the exception of the debt. I hope for a nice turnaround and even if not just under 6% dividends are very attractive.

As my individual stocks have performed very strongly, my allocation has become unbalanced. The goal is 50% ETFs, gold, real estate, cash and 50% individual stocks.

I won't say anything about my individual shares so as not to prolong the article too much.

Except:

$ALV (-2,77 %)
$BATS (-2,64 %)
$SHEL (-1,72 %)
$GOOGL (-0,68 %) are long-term stocks

$AAPL (+0,14 %)
$BABA (-3,64 %)
$1211 (-2,98 %)
$EUZ (-2,12 %)
$AXON (+1,96 %) medium-term

$OXY (-0,39 %)
$ARM (-1,88 %)
$UNH (-1,16 %) short term bets

and unfortunately I can't get the tracking 100% correct. Getquin crashed in March, which is why only Trade Republic is displayed as the previous value and Smart Broker as the capital invested in March / April.

In addition, due to the change of custody account Sparkasse -> Smart Broker -> Smart Broker plus -> Trade Republic (Etfs sorted out) I had no power to enter everything since 2020

1 The situation: Why Venezuela is so important for Chevron

• Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, especially heavy oil for the refineries in the Gulf of Mexico, which is important for the USA
• Chevron is the only US company that already has an active infrastructure and joint ventures on site thanks to a special license (General License 41)
• a political upheaval leading to a more US-friendly government would turn Chevron from a "tolerated guest" into a key player in the reconstruction process

2. possible positive effects

• Massive production boost: Chevron could double production at its joint ventures (such as Petropiar and Petroboscan) from the current level of around 100,000-150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the short term and increase it well beyond that in the long term
• Debt repayment: In the past, Chevron has used oil exports to pay off billions in outstanding debt owed to Venezuela's state-owned oil and gas company (PDVSA), a more stable environment would accelerate this cash flow return
• Strategic advantage: While competitors (e.g. $XOM (-0,9 %) , $SHEL (-1,72 %) ) would first have to negotiate new contracts, Chevron can immediately ramp up existing infrastructure

3. risks and red flags

• 🚩 Capex explosion: Venezuelan infrastructure (pipelines, refineries) is in a desolate state after years of neglect
• If Chevron announces that it will massively increase its capital expenditure (CapEx) beyond the planned USD 18-21 bn to clean up Venezuela, this could reduce share buybacks
• 🚩 Political instability & "resource nationalism": A new government could also try to increase profit shares for the state once production is up and running
• Reports of new taxes, higher royalties or disputes over operational control in joint ventures would be a warning signal
• 🚩 Oil price pressure due to oversupply: If Venezuela quickly dumps millions of barrels onto the global market again, the oil price (Brent) could come under pressure.
• A falling oil price coupled with rising investment costs in Venezuela would undermine Chevron's margins (unit margins)

3. progress with the "Hess synergies" and Guyana

• The integration of Hess is essential for Chevron to underpin the portfolio with extremely low-cost oil (breakeven <$30) - synergy target has already been raised to USD 1.5 billion by the end of 2026
• 🚩 Delays or legal setbacks in accessing the Hess shares in Guyana, e.g. due to arbitration proceedings with ExxonMobil
• Guyana is the "safety net" for Chevron. If the Venezuela coup becomes geopolitically unstable or the oil price collapses due to oversupply, Chevron needs the highly profitable barrels from Guyana to support the dividend and the share price.

As long as Chevron maintains share buybacks and capex discipline, the stock remains a strong investment in my view, despite geopolitical volatility. However, if management starts "throwing good money after bad money" to support political objectives in Venezuela, one should be wary. My position remains in the portfolio, I will not be buying more at the moment.

Any other opinions and points of view? 🤓

$CVX (+0,28 %)