Messaggi
11I'm glad I got out of $WAF (+4,55%) last week. Although I was down, my expectations were not fulfilled at all and I pulled the ripcord at -13%.
Obviously the right decision. I was not only looking for a turnaround, but also for attractive dividends. And these were just thrown into the oven ...
I've already started to shift my portfolio more towards dividends with a stock like $FRO (+5,49%) more in the direction of dividends. I'm in my mid-50s, so you have to think about the future ("Die Rende sin' sischa").
Two new stocks have been added to the portfolio today: $BATS (+0%) and $FSK (+4,1%) . Out went $WAF (+4,55%) (-13 percent) and $AAPL (+3,28%) (+13 percent or so).
I am raising my personal price target for dividends in 2025 to EUR 15,000 gross; I want to be much more aggressive than before.
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- GOLDMAN raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 56 to EUR 60. Buy. $ENR (+0,84%)
- BARCLAYS raises the target price for MERCEDES-BENZ from EUR 48.50 to EUR 50. Underweight. $MBG (+4,4%)
- JEFFERIES upgrades SMA SOLAR from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 14 to EUR 20. $S92 (+3,77%)
- GOLDMAN raises the price target for DEUTSCHE BÖRSE from EUR 226 to EUR 231. Neutral. $DB1 (+0,48%)
- BOFA upgrades BBVA from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 11 to EUR 13. $BBVA (+2,18%)
- WARBURG RESEARCH upgrades FUCHS SE from Hold to Buy. Target price EUR 50. $FPE
- GOLDMAN raises the price target for FLATEXDEGIRO from EUR 17 to EUR 18. Buy. $FTK (+1,54%)
- BERENBERG raises the target price for IBERDROLA from EUR 12.30 to EUR 14. Hold. $IBE (-2,96%)
- JEFFERIES upgrades PVA TEPLA from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 12 to EUR 19. $TPE (+6,75%)
- JEFFERIES raises the price target for FRIEDRICH VORWERK from EUR 23 to EUR 30. Hold. $VH2 (-8,1%)
- JEFFERIES raises the price target for ZEAL NETWORK from EUR 45 to EUR 58. Buy. $TIMA (-0,8%)
- JEFFERIES raises the price target for ADESSO from EUR 75 to EUR 85. Hold. $ADN1 (+2,63%)
- JEFFERIES upgrades NEL from Underperform to Hold. Target price NOK 3. $NEL (+4,55%)
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- BERENBERG lowers the price target for RWE from EUR 46.50 to EUR 42. Buy. $RWE (-1,33%)
- GOLDMAN lowers target price for EON from EUR 17.50 to EUR 17. Buy. $EOAN (-2,78%)
- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB downgrades AIXTRON from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 26.40 to EUR 13.80. $AIXA (+3,14%)
- METZLER lowers the price target for DWS from EUR 41 to EUR 40.50. Hold. $DWS (+2,4%)
- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for ASTRAZENECA from GBP 159.55 to GBP 155.58. Buy. $AZN (+1,82%)
- TD COWEN downgrades STMICRO to Hold. Target price EUR 24.50. $STM (+4,9%)
- JPMORGAN downgrades CONSTELLATION BRANDS to Neutral. Target price USD 203. $STZ (+1,11%)
- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for DOCMORRIS from CHF 65 to CHF 39. Buy. $DOCM (+2,12%)
- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for ATOSS SOFTWARE from EUR 112 to EUR 108. Hold. $AOF (+1,49%)
- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for JENOPTIK from EUR 34 to EUR 29. Buy. $JEN (+3,4%)
- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for KONTRON from EUR 29 to EUR 27. Buy. $KTN (+1,24%)
- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for SILTRONIC from EUR 95 to EUR 90. Buy. $WAF (+4,55%)
- JEFFERIES downgrades VERBIO from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 22 to EUR 11. $VBK (+1,03%)
- JEFFERIES downgrades SGL CARBON from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 9.50 to EUR 4.40. $SGL (+5,94%)
@DonkeyInvestor said it: nest eggs are for the poor.
That's why I went back to my Christmas shopping today and - order is a must - $FRO (+5,49%) and $WAF (+4,55%) bought a round number. I ploughed the rest into my MSCI World.
I wish everyone involved a Merry Christmas and a healthy, happy and successful New Year 2025!
Your Cha-Cha-Cha-Cha Charmin
Analyst updates, 17.12.
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Welcome to the depot, $WAF (+4,55%)!
Siltronic is a wafer manufacturer from Germany. My PF is very $NVDA (+4,76%) very US-heavy, so I was looking for another turn-around candidate from this, our country.
The stock has taken quite a beating in recent years and I am hopeful that the worst is over, partly because of the increased focus on international production facilities. The valuation with a P/E ratio of around 16 seems favorable to me.
And because I'm no longer the youngest, I'm also looking at dividend stocks. If everything goes well, I benefit from the yield and a rebound. If things go badly, I hope there will at least be a nice dividend.
Investment horizon: 3-5 years.
From sand to chip: how is a modern semiconductor made?
Reading time: approx. 10min
1) INTRODUCTION
Since 2023 at the latest and the rapid rise of Nvidia $NVDA (+4,76%) semiconductors and "AI chips" in particular have been the talk of the town. Since then, investors have been chasing after almost every company that has something to do with the manufacture of chips, driving share prices to unimagined heights. However, hardly any investors really know how complex the value chain is within the production of modern chips.
In this article, I will give you an overview of the entire manufacturing process and the companies involved. Even if many of you have a vague idea that the production of modern chips is complex, you will certainly be surprised by how complex it really is in reality.
2) BASIC
The starting point for every chip are so-called wafers [1] - i.e. thin wafers, which usually consist of so-called high-purity monocrystalline silicon. In the field of power semiconductors, which primarily comprises chips for applications with higher currents and voltages, silicon carbide (SiC) or galium nitride (GaN) has recently also been used as the base material for the wafers.
In the so-called front end the actual core components of the chips - the so-called dies - are created and applied to the wafers. The dies are rectangular structures that contain the actual functionality of the later chip. The finished dies are then tested for their functionality and electrical properties. Each die that is found to be good is then integrated into the so-called backend where the individual dies are separated on the wafer. This is followed by the so-called packaging. The individual dies from the front end are then electrically contacted and integrated into a protective housing. In the end, this housing with the contacted die is what is usually called a chip chip.
Now that we have a rough overview of the overall process, let's take a closer look at the individual processes involved in producing the dies on the wafer. This is the area in which most highly complex machines are used and which is usually the most sensitive.
3) FROM SAND TO WAFER
Before wafers made of high-purity silicon can even be produced and the actual process for manufacturing dies can begin, the actual wafer must first be manufactured in almost perfect quality. To do this, quartz sand, which consists largely of silicon dioxide, is reduced with carbon at high temperatures. This produces so-called raw siliconwhich, with a purity of around 96%, is not yet anywhere near the quality required for the production of wafers.
In several chemical processes, which are carried out by Wacker Chemie
$WCH (+2,96%) or Siltronic
$WAF (+4,55%) are used to turn the "impure" silicon into so-called polycrystalline silicon with a purity of 99.9999999%. For every billion silicon atoms, there is then only one foreign atom in the silicon. However, this pure polycrystalline silicon is still not suitable for the production of wafers, as the crystal structure in the silicon is not uniform enough. In order to create the right crystal structure, the polycrystalline silicon is then melted again and a so-called ingotwhich is made from monocrystalline silicon is produced. A comparison between raw silicon and the ingot can be found in the following image [3]:
This ingot is then sawn into thin slices, which are then the final wafers for semiconductor production. The best-known wafer producers are Shin Etsu
$4063, (+1,15%)
Siltronic or GlobalWafers
$6488.
4) FROM THE WAFER TO THE DIE
The wafers described in the previous section can now be used to produce dies. The overall process for producing dies basically consists of applying a large number of layers using various chemical, mechanical and physical processes. The overall process (depending on the product) takes approx. 80 different layers on the wafer, requiring almost 1000 different process steps and 3 months
non-stop production are required [4].
A macroscopic analogy is useful here, which I have also taken from [4]. You can compare the overall process for producing dies with baking a large multi-layer cake. This cake has 80 layers and the recipe for baking consists of 1000 steps. It takes 3 months to make the cake and if even one layer of the cake deviates from the recipe by more than 1%, the whole cake collapses and has to be thrown away.
In the first process steps, the wafer is covered with billions tiny little transistors are created on the wafer, which are then all individually electrically contacted in the following steps. The final steps consist of electrically connecting the transistors to each other, resulting in a complete electrical circuit [4]:
Each individual layer of the approximately 80 layers in the die requires highly specialized processes, which can be roughly summarized as:
Apply masks
Ultimately, a mask can be thought of as an enlarged copy of the structure of a special layer in the die. These so-called photomasks are then scanned using so-called scanners or steppers "copied" in reduced size onto the wafer. The best-known manufacturer of such lithography systems is ASML
$ASML (+4,09%). It is currently the only producer of lithography systems that make it possible to produce structures smaller than 10 nanometers on the wafer. In today's powerful and modern chips, such as those found in smartphones, AI chips and processors, the smallest structures are around 3 nanometers in size. Other manufacturers of lithography systems for larger structures (10nm and larger) are Canon Electronics
$7739 or Nikon $7731 (+1,52%) .
The photomasks - i.e. the enlarged "copies" of the structures - are produced by companies such as Toppan $7911 (+1,65%) , Dai Nippon Printing
$7912 (+1,24%) or Hoya $7741 (+3,34%) manufactured. Systems for cleaning the photomasks or for applying the photoresist are produced, for example, by Suss Microtec
$SMHN (+6,6%) for example.
Apply/remove/modify/clean material
As can be seen in the overview above, there are a variety of methods and processes for modifying the material of a particular layer. As a result, there is a lot of different equipment that can handle a process very well with incredible specialization. The best-known and most successful equipment manufacturers include Applied Materials $AMAT (+6,22%), LAM Research
$LRCX (+10,41%), Tokyo Electron (TEL)
$8035, (+0,88%)
Suss Mictrotec, Entegris
$ENTG (+5,45%) and Axcelis $ACLS (+2,94%).
The material - for example, highly specialized chemicals - is of course also required for production. Companies such as Linde
$LIN (-0,2%), Air Liquide
$AI (+0,53%), Air Products
$APD (+0,71%) and Nippon Sanso
$4091 (+0,77%) are major manufacturers of process gases such as nitrogen, hydrogen and argon.
Inspect
As mentioned, every single layer in the manufacturing process of a die must be perfect in order to obtain a functional die at the end. Any small deviation or foreign particles can impair the functionality of the die. As the function of the die can only be checked precisely on the finished die, it is advantageous to inspect the individual layers for defects and deviations during production. Special machines are required for this, which must be able to do different things depending on the layer. Manufacturers of such machines include KLA
$KLAC (+5,13%) or Onto Innovation
$ONTO (+5,74%).
The following applies to almost all of the companies mentioned in this section: the companies are highly specialized and have quasi-monopolies on the machines for certain process steps. quasi-monopolies. Suitable equipment therefore usually costs several million dollars. In addition, some of the systems are so complex that they can only be serviced by the manufacturer's own service staff, which results in recurring service revenues for every machine sold. As a rule, each machine requires several highly specialized engineers to ensure long-term stable operation.
5) FROM THE DIE TO THE FINISHED CHIP
Once the wafer has been processed, the dies on the wafer are checked for functionality. There is highly specialized equipment for this, so-called probers. These probers test each individual chip several times, if necessary, to check the functionality implemented in the design. Manufacturers of such probers include Teradyne $TER (+3,57%), Keysight Technologies
$KEYS (+2,58%), Onto Innovation or Tokyo Electron. These probers have to control each individual die, some of which are only a few square millimetres in size, and contact the corresponding much smaller test structures with tiny needles. The testing process is sometimes outsourced to entire companies that offer die testing as a complete package. One example of such providers is Amkor Technology
$AMKR (+3,58%).
The processed and tested wafer is now sawn to obtain individual dies. The dies that are found to be good are then integrated into a protective housing in the backend. The dies that have not passed the functionality test are either sorted out or (depending on the error pattern) processed as a variant with reduced functionality similar to those with full functionality. After a final functional test in the package, the chip is ready for use.
6) FOUNDRIES, FABLESS & SOFTWARE
Now that we have an overview of the complex process of manufacturing a chip, let's zoom out a little further to understand which companies perform which tasks in the semiconductor industry.
It's funny that not once in the manufacturing process has the name Nvidia $NVDA (+4,76%) or Apple $AAPL (+3,28%) has been mentioned? Yet they have the most advanced chips, don't they?
The pure production of the chips is done by other companies - so-called foundries. Companies like Nvidia and even AMD $AMD (+6,04%) are in fact fablessThis means that they do not have their own production facilities but only supply the chip design and let the foundries manufacture the actual chip according to their design.
The design of a chip is like the blueprint for production - the foundries then take over the recipe creation and the actual production. There is special software for designing chips. Companies known for this software include Cadance Design
$CDNS (+4,91%) and Synopsys $SNPS (+2,97%). But also the industrial giant Siemens
$SIE (+2,38%) now also supplies software for designing integrated circuits. Synopsys also offers other software for data analysis within foundry production.
Speaking of foundries; the best known foundry is probably TSMC
$TSM, (+4,98%) which is the global market leader in foundries. TSMC designs itself no chips itself and specializes exclusively in the production of the most advanced generations of chips. Another major player that also masters the most advanced structure sizes is Samsung $005930. In contrast to TSMC manufactures Samsung also produces its own designs. Other large foundries are Global Foundries
$GFS, (+4,43%) which was originally a spin-off from AMD and the Taiwanese company United Micro Electronics
$UMC. (+4,22%)
The best-known fabless companies - i.e. companies without their own chip production - are Nvidia, Apple, AMD, ARM Holdings
$ARM, (+6,53%)
Broadcom $AVGO (+5,57%), MediaTek $2454 and Qualcomm $QCOM. (+2,76%) In the meantime Alphabet $GOOGL, (+3,79%)
Microsoft $MSFT, (+3,73%)
Amazon $AMZN (+5,58%) and Meta $META (+5,44%) have designed their own chips for certain functionalities and then have them manufactured in foundries.
In addition to foundries and fabless companies, there are of course also hybrid models, i.e. companies that take on both production and design. The best-known examples of this are, of course, companies such as Intel
$INTC (+6,37%) and Samsung. There is also a whole range of so-called Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM)which for the most part only manufacture their own designed chips and do not accept customer orders for production. Well-known companies such as Texas Instruments
$TXN, (+10,39%)
SK Hynix
$000660,
STMicroelectronics
$STMPA, (+5,13%)
NXP Semiconductors
$NXPI, (+7,19%)
Infineon $IFX (+4,51%) and Renesas $6723 (+2,58%) are among the IDMs.
FINAL WORD
The aim of this article was to provide an overview of the complexity of the semiconductor industry. I do not, of course no claim to be complete, as there are of course many other companies that are part of this value chain. As Getquin thrives on active exchange, I'll give you some food for thought to discuss in the comments below the article:
In general, I can recommend the 20-minute YouTube video at [4] to any interested reader. It provides an excellent animated overview of the manufacturing process of modern chips.
Stay tuned,
Yours Nico Uhlig (aka RealMichaelScott)
SOURCES:
[1] Wikipedia: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wafer
[2] https://www.halbleiter.org/waferherstellung/einkristall/
[3] https://solarmuseum.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/solarmuseum_org-07917.jpg
[4] Branch Education on YouTube: "How are Microchips Made?" https://youtu.be/dX9CGRZwD-w?si=xeV0TYgJ2iwNOKyO
Earnings summary this morning 👇🏼
$ULVR (-1,65%) | Unilever Q3 2024 Earnings
Rev €15.25B (est €15.398B)
DIV/SHR €O.4396
Underlying Volume 3.6% (est 3.1%)
Underlying Sales 4.5%, (est 4.25%)
Still Sees FY Underlying Sales To 5% (est 4.2%)
Still Sees FY Underlying Oper. Margin At Least 18%
2024 FY Outlook Unchanged
$BARC (+4,42%) | Barclays Q3 2024 Earnings
Pretax Profit £2.23B (est £1.96B)
Net Interest Income £3.31B (est £3.11B)
Investment Banking £594M (est £552.3M)
FICC Rev. £1.18B (est £1.13B)
Sees FY Cost To Income Ratio About
Sees FY UK Net Interest Income About £6.5B
$AAL (+3,86%) | Anglo American Q3 2024 Earnings
Diamond Prod 5.6M Carats (est 5.6M)
Copper Output 181,000 tons (est 181,334)
American Sees Fy Diamond Prod 23M to 26M Carats
De Beers To Continue To Assess Options To Lower Output
PGMS Demerger Is On Track To Complete By Mid 2025
$RMS (+2,19%) | Hermes International Q3 2024 Earnings
Rev €3.70B (est €3.68B)
Sales At Constant FX 11.3% (est 10.5%)
Leather Goods Sales At Constant FX 14% (est 12.8%)
CFO: Sees No Change In Global Trends Early Q4
CFO: China Higher Basket Spend Made Up For Lower Traffic
$005380 | Hyundai reports a 6.5% drop in profits in the third quarter despite an increase in sales, leading to a fall in the Seoul share price of almost 5%. Operating profit falls to 3.6 trillion won, while the operating margin drops to 8.3%.
$BN (+0,19%) | Danone increases its turnover in the third quarter by 4.2% to 6.9 billion euros, exceeding analysts' expectations. Demand is particularly high in North America and Asia.
$RNO (+1,01%) | Renault increases sales by 1.8% to 10.7 billion euros in the third quarter, but falls short of analysts' expectations. Exchange rate effects have a dampening effect on the result, without which a 5% increase in sales would have been possible.
$SY1 (+0%) | Symrise raises its forecast for organic growth in 2024 to around 7 % after strong sales growth in the first nine months. Sales rose by 6 % to 3.8 billion euros, driven by petcare and fragrance products.
$WAF (+4,55%) | Siltronic raises 2024 EBITDA margin guidance to 24-26% as acceptance of new Singapore factory is delayed. Third-quarter sales rise 2.3% to EUR 357m, exceeding expectations, while profit falls to EUR 19m.
$BEI (+0,71%) | Beiersdorf records organic sales growth of 6.5% to 7.5 billion euros, but falls short of analysts' expectations. Sales of the luxury brand La Prairie fall by over 7% in China, while the annual targets for 2024 are confirmed.
Quarterly figures from 28.10.2022...
...and then off into the weekend!⤵️
The last interesting numbers for this week have been reported. Next week will come mainly the European companies. This morning I have already pointed out what will come so:
https://app.getquin.com/activity/cXypzTmLZM?lang=de&utm_source=sharing
Let's take a look at it in summary:
$JKS (+4,54%)
JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd:
Beat analyst estimates of $0.71 in the third quarter with earnings per share of $0.90. Revenue of $2.74 billion exceeded expectations of $2.6 billion.
$ABBV (+2,83%)
AbbVie Inc:
Third-quarter earnings per share of $3.66 beat analyst estimates of $3.58. Revenue of $14.81 billion below expectations of $14.93 billion.
$NEE (+1,85%)
Nextera Energy Inc:
Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.85 beat analyst estimates of $0.79. Revenue of $6.72 billion exceeded expectations of $5.96 billion.
$CL (-0,59%)
Colgate-Palmolive Co:
Hits analyst estimates with third-quarter earnings per share of $0.74. Sales of $4.46 billion below expectations of $4.48 billion.
$CHD (-0,81%)
Church & Dwight Co. Inc:
Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.76 beat analyst estimates of $0.65. Revenue of $1.32 billion exceeded expectations of $1.3 billion.
$XOM (+0,07%)
Exxon Mobil Corp:
Third-quarter earnings per share of $4.45 beat analyst estimates of $3.67. Revenue of $112.07 billion beat expectations of $107.24 billion. High gas and oil prices boosted.
$P911 (+4,74%)
Volkswagen subsidiary Porsche:
Posts Q1-3 sales of €26.7 billion (PY: €23.1 billion), operating profit of €5.05 billion (PY: €3.56 billion), outlook for 2022 and beyond confirmed.
$8TRA (+3,25%)
Volkswagen subsidiary TRATON:
Achieves Q1-3 sales of €27.96 billion (PY: €21.31 billion), unit sales of 218,000 vehicles (PY: 196,000 vehicles) and an operating profit of €954 million (PY: €476 million).
$VOW (+2,45%)
Volkswagen (VW):
Reports Q3 sales of €70.7 billion (PY: €56.9 billion, analyst forecast: €69.9 billion), adjusted EBIT of €4.27 billion (PY: €2.80 billion, forecast: €4.64 billion), an EBIT margin of 6.0% (PY: 4.9%, forecast: 6.6%) and profit after tax of €2.13 billion (PY: €2.90 billion). In the outlook for 2022, Volkswagen (VW) expects deliveries to remain at the prior-year level (previously: +5 to 10%). Sales and Ebit margin forecast for 2022 confirmed.
$WAF (+4,55%)
Siltronic:
Achieves Q3 sales of €474 million (PY: €371.6 million, analyst forecast: €456 million), Ebitda of €170.5 million (PY: €122.9 million, forecast: €135.3 million) and net income of €109.9 million (PY: €73.6 million). In its outlook for 2022, Siltronic raises its sales growth forecast to 26% to 30% (previous: 21% to 27%) and an Ebitda margin of 36% to 38% (previous: 34% to 37%).
$AIRC (-0,14%)
Airbus:
Reports Q3 revenues of €13.309 billion (PY: €10.518 billion, analyst forecast: €12.848 billion), Ebit (adjusted) of €836 million (PY: €666 million, forecast: €887 million) and net profit of €667 million (PY: €404 million, forecast: €585 million). In the outlook for 2022, Airbus continues to expect approximately 700 commercial aircraft deliveries (forecast: 697 aircraft), Ebit (adjusted) of €5.5 billion (forecast: €5.487 billion) and free cash flow of €4.5 billion (previous: €3.5 billion).
#airbus
#quartalszahlen
#finanzen
#community
#communityfeedback
"SILTRONIC with double tailwind. The low for SILTRONIC should have been sounded. The operational tailwind continues. First, after more than a year of negotiations, the U.S. Congress has decided to support the chip industry, including R&D, with more than $250 billion over the next ten years. SILTRONIC benefits indirectly as an international wafer supplier. Second: Independently of this, WACKER CHEMIE's subsidiary has raised its forecast. In 2022, it aims to increase revenues by 21 to 27%, compared with a previous forecast of 15 to 22% growth. Of this, 34 to 37% should remain as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda). P/E ratios of 7 to 8 are simply too favorable, even if the business is traditionally cyclical. So far, however, there are no signs of a slowdown in demand for the wafer manufacturer. Demand is above production capacity. [...]"
This is a small text insight into the Bernecker stock exchange letter "Bernecker Daily" in its issue of 01.08.2022. For more info of this kind gladly become a follower here at Getquin.
