Hope for US-Chinese rapprochement lives on + Secret revealed: Trump wants to cut drug prices + Evonik confirms annual target + Formycon starts the year with losses

Hope for US-Chinese rapprochement lives on

• Progress in the tariff conflict between the USA and China should ensure a positive mood on Europe's stock markets on Monday.
• The Dax is likely to continue its record-breaking run, which it resumed on Friday after a break of almost two months.
• Wall Street is also expected to be strong, while the start of the week in Asia was rather subdued.
• According to the White House, the USA has reached an agreement with China on the tariff dispute during talks in Geneva.
• No details were initially given. Both sides announced a statement for Monday.
• The Chinese delegation initially only spoke of a "series of important agreements".

Secret revealed: Trump wants to lower prices for medicines

• The big announcement made by US President Donald Trump is now out:
• He wants to lower the prices of prescription drugs and is taking aim at the pharmaceutical industry.
• He will sign one of the "most consequential decrees" in US history on Monday morning (local time), the Republican announced on his online mouthpiece Truth Social.
• He had previously written there that he would be making "one of the most important" announcements ever.
• Trump had already held out the prospect of an "earth-shattering" announcement last week.
• US media had already speculated that it could be about drug prices.
• Drug prices are an important issue in the USA.
• There is currently no central government price regulation that applies to all medicines.
• The pharmaceutical industry plays the most important role in the question of how much a drug costs - government influence is limited.
• This sometimes leads to enormously high prices - in an international comparison, many medicines in the USA are significantly more expensive.
• In Germany, on the other hand, various forms of state regulation take effect.
• Trump promises significant price reduction Trump sees the USA at a disadvantage because of the high prices.
• The world wonders why prescription drugs are so much more expensive in the USA than in other countries around the world, even though they are produced in the same laboratory by the same company, he wrote.
• "It was always hard to explain and very embarrassing because, in truth, there was no real or justifiable explanation." Trump promised that drug prices in the US would fall by 30 to 80 percent "almost immediately".
• "Worldwide, prices will rise to create balance and - for the first time in many years - bring justice to America!"
• Trump wants to ensure that no more is paid for certain prescription drugs in the USA than in other countries.
• It remains to be seen whether this only applies to drugs covered by the state health insurance program for senior citizens (Medicare) - or whether Trump wants to go one step further with price regulation.
• This could be particularly difficult legally - but pharmaceutical companies are likely to oppose the plan anyway.
• Trump's idea is not new Trump wants to tackle high prices with the "Most Favored Nation" system.
• He had already pushed this unsuccessfully during his first term in office.
• The idea is to link the reimbursement prices for medicines to the lowest price in wealthy comparator countries in order to reduce the high cost of medicines in the USA.
• This would force pharmaceutical companies to accept internationally comparable prices.
• The proposal was never implemented; there was legal and political resistance.
• In Trump's announcement, it now sounded as if it was not just about comparable prices in certain countries.
• Trump wrote that the USA would pay the same price as the country that pays the lowest price for a drug worldwide.
• Trump went on to emphasize: "Campaign contributions can work wonders - but not for me and not for the Republican Party."
• His government will now do the right thing - something the Democrats have been fighting for for years.
• The regulation of drugs was one of the central issues of Trump's predecessor in office, Joe Biden.
• Biden signed a major legislative package in 2022 that also authorized Medicare to negotiate certain drug prices.
• Biden's measure was considered a milestone.

Evonik $EVK (+0,17%)confirms annual target - operating profit recovers at the start of the year

• Better business with animal feed protein and continued cost-cutting efforts helped Evonik to increase profits in the first quarter.
• In addition, business with products for the paints and coatings industry and with active pharmaceutical ingredients improved.
• The annual profit target has been set. With sales almost unchanged at just under €3.8 billion, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) adjusted for special items rose by 7 percent year-on-year to €560 million, as the MDax-listed company announced on Monday.
• This is slightly less than analysts expected in terms of turnover, but more in terms of profit.
• The bottom line was 233 million euros, compared to 156 million a year ago.
• "Our efficiency efforts are taking effect.
• And this is also urgently needed in view of the renewed economic concerns," says CFO Maike Schuh.
• She and Evonik CEO Christian Kullmann are still targeting an operating profit (EBITDA) of between €2.0 billion and €2.3 billion for the current year, following a significant recovery to almost €2.07 billion in 2024.

Biotech company Formycon $FYB (+0,11%)starts the year with losses

• A decline in milestone payments and reimbursements for development services weighed on biosimilar manufacturer Formycon at the start of the year.
• However, neither is surprising, as projects are progressing.
• In addition, there is partial price pressure on sales in the USA.
• According to a statement on Monday, turnover in the first quarter fell by 70 percent year-on-year to EUR 5.3 million.
• Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) slipped from minus 5.5 to minus 13.2 million euros.
• The company confirmed its forecast for the current year.

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Singapore stock exchange holiday

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Villeroy & Boch AG ex dividend € 0.90
• Draegerwerk AG & Co KGaA ex dividend € 2.03
• Draegerwerk AG & Co KGaA € 1.97
• DMG Mori AG € 1.03

• Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia
• 07:00 Mazda quarterly figures
• 14:00 Fox Corp Quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Evonik Industries | Unicredit | Procredit | Formycon Quarterly figures
• 07:10 Hypoport quarterly figures
• 07:30 Salzgitter | Adesso | United Internet Quarterly figures
• 07:50 1&1 Quarterly figures
• 09:00 Ionos quarterly figures | Salzgitter analyst conference
• 10:00 Siltronic AGM
• 11:00 Evonik Analyst Conference
• 12:00 United Internet Analyst Conference
• 14:00 Hochtief quarterly figures
• 15:00 Formycon Conference Call

• Economic data

08:00 DE: Domestic Tourism March

15:00 EU: Eurogroup meeting

The German bank has now also used the coalition agreement and the associated special fund as the basis for a list of recommendations.

The result is a list of 10 potential profiteers.

The result:

$CBK (-1,65%) - Commerzbank

$ENR (-0,15%) - Siemens Energy

$VOS (-0,28%) - Vossloh

$HEI (-2,18%) - Heidelberg Materials

$EVK (+0,17%) - Evonik

$KGX (-2%) - Kion

$BC8 (-0,87%) - Bechtle

$COK (-3,31%) - Cancom

$VOW (-0,99%) - Volkswagen

$PAL (-0,82%) - Palfinger

Source: "Welt"

I was inspired by a Focus Money article and because many people here are asking.

I won't be investing myself, it's too short-term for me. But there are still some very interesting companies.

Feel free to write in the comments whether such "copied articles" are of any use to the community or are legally correct :)

The signs of a peace process in Ukraine are solidifying. This is triggering a run on the stock market for shares that could benefit from reconstruction

Regardless of the political interpretation, the stock market has been turning its back on the war for several days now and is betting on the coming peace. Stocks that are likely to benefit from the reconstruction in Ukraine have soared. The UBS Ukraine Reconstruction Index, which comprises 25 of these stocks, has been climbing for days and is at an all-time high. "The effects of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine are still being underestimated on the financial markets," says Bernd Meyer, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Multi Asset at Berenberg, who is convinced that the rally will continue. Reconstruction requires enormous resources. According to estimates by the World Bank, the costs for this amount to a total of 500 billion dollars - the equivalent of Austria's gross domestic product and more than three times Ukraine's annual economic output before the war. The money is likely to benefit construction companies, suppliers, infrastructure companies and banks in particular. European companies could be the main beneficiaries - especially from neighboring countries such as Poland and Hungary, but also the Czech Republic, Austria and Germany.

With Wärtsilä $WRT1V (+0,54%) a provider of technologies for the shipping and energy markets, and Konecranes $KCR (-0,61%) a manufacturer of industrial cranes and drive technology, Finnish companies are also on the list of potential peace beneficiaries - as are Italian companies such as the cement and building materials manufacturer Buzzi $BZU (-1,31%) The list is long. There is a great need for building materials, steel and cables to restore the destroyed infrastructure and energy supply. There is still no thematic fund or ETF on the beneficiaries of the reconstruction in Ukraine. Investors who want to benefit from this are therefore well advised to combine several securities into a portfolio themselves.

Banks: Erste Group Bank $EBS (+1,74%) Powszechna K. Osz $PKO (-1,25%) Santander Polska $SPL (+1,71%) Polska K. Opieki $PEO (+0%) Raiffeisen Bank Int.$RBI (-2,09%)

Construction: Wienerberger $WIE (+0,96%) Sniezka Construction $SKA Strabag $STR (-0,67%)

Insulation: Kingspan Group $KRX (-1,29%) Rockwool $ROCK B

Glass: Cie de Saint-Gobain $SGO (-0,59%)

Cranes: Konecranes $KCR (-0,61%)

Cement: CRH $CRH (+1,33%) Buzzi $BZU (-1,31%) Holcim $HOLN (+0,21%) Heidelberg Mat. $HEI (-2,18%)

Construction machinery: Caterpillar $CAT (+0,96%)

Mining: Ferrexpo $FXPO (-2,15%) Metso $METSO (-0,61%)

Chemicals: BASF $BAS (-2,28%)

Industrial gases: Air Liquide $AI (+0,41%)

Infrastructure: Schneider Electric $SU (-0,79%) Rexel $RXL (-1,46%) Wärtsilä $WRT1V (+0,54%) Weir Group $WEIR (-0,28%)

Infrastructure (E): Siemens Energy $ENR (-0,15%) Prysmian $PRY (-0,61%) NKT $NKT (+0,25%) Nexans $NEX (-0,68%)

Agriculture: Kernel $KER (-3,52%)

Logistics(warehouse): Kion $KGX (-2%)

Steel: Arcelor Mittal $MT (+0,05%) and for stainless steels Outukompu $OUT1V (-0,03%)

Sanitary technology: Geberit $GEBN (+0,51%)

Specialty chemicals: Evonik $EVK (+0,17%) Arkema $AKE (-1,64%) Wacker Chemie $WCH (-2,86%) Lanxess $LXS (-5,88%)

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for MOLLER-MAERSK from DKK 9650 to DKK 9700. Underperform. $AMKBY (+0%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

-JPM Securities downgrading $GOOGL (+1,27%)

-JPM Securities downgrading $UBER (+1,56%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for EVONIK from EUR 20 to EUR 18. Hold. $EVK (+0,17%)

- BERNSTEIN lowers the target price for DHL GROUP from EUR 42.50 to EUR 41. Outperform. $DHL (-0,99%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for LINDE from USD 550 to USD 522. Buy. $LIN (+0,84%)

- $SOFI (+2,03%) Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Downgrades to Underperform PT to $7 from $8

-UBS starting the year again with some negative data for $AAPL (-0,21%) naming China an issues

The existing position is reduced in price.

What do you think of $RWE (-0,46%) and $EVK (+0,17%) ?

Both shares have been beaten up properly, pay a good dividend and could also achieve a turnaround with the new German government (assuming the German economy makes it out of the hole).

I look forward to the comments and different opinions 😊

Analyst updates, 17.12.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

• - UBS raises the price target for AMAZON from USD 230 to USD 264. Buy. $AMZN (+0,1%)
• - CITIGROUP raises the target price for ALLIANZ SE from EUR 286 to EUR 314.40. Neutral. $ALV (+0,6%)
• - BARCLAYS raises the target price for DHL GROUP from EUR 37.50 to EUR 38. Equal-Weight. $DHL (-0,99%)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades AIRBUS from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 155 to EUR 185. $AIR (+0,21%)
• - BERENBERG raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 525 to EUR 552. Hold. $MUV2 (-0,44%)
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for ADESSO from EUR 80 to EUR 100. Hold. $ADN1 (+0,58%)
• - WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for FMC from EUR 31 to EUR 36. Sell. $FME (+1,26%)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for AUTO1 from EUR 12 to EUR 20. Buy. $AG1 (+1,89%)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for MTU from EUR 329 to EUR 337. Hold. $MTX (-0,25%)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for HENSOLDT from EUR 37 to EUR 41. Buy. $HAG (+1,65%)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for ROLLS-ROYCE from GBP 5.55 to GBP 6.30. Buy. $RR. (+0,51%)
• - BOFA raises the target price for INFINEON from EUR 36 to EUR 40. Buy. $IFX (-0,63%)
• - BOFA raises the price target for STMICRO from EUR 29 to EUR 30. Buy. $STMPA (-0,52%)
• - BOFA raises the target price for NOKIA from EUR 4.07 to EUR 4.58. Neutral. $NOKIA (-0,3%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

• - JPMORGAN downgrades TRANSMEDICS from Overweight to Neutral and lowers target price from 116 USD to 75 USD. $TMDX (-0,57%)
• - BOFA lowers the price target for SILTRONIC from EUR 59 to EUR 46. Underperform. $WAF (-2,54%)
• - HSBC lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 66 to EUR 54. Hold. $AFX (+1,39%)
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for HEIDELBERGER DRUCK from EUR 1.25 to EUR 1. Hold. $HBGRY
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for EVONIK from EUR 25 to EUR 21. Buy. $EVK (+0,17%)
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for NORDEX from EUR 17 to EUR 14. Buy. $NDX1 (+0,83%)

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/ITleQRkOkrI?si=0IpXUSz4Schi0To8

Sunday:

Iran attacks Israel for the first time ever. The stock exchanges in Israel can even close in positive territory (Sunday is a trading day in Israel). The stock markets had already fallen in part on Friday, while the price of oil had risen significantly.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article251019758/Israel-Libanesische-Hisbollah-Miliz-gratuliert-Iran-zu-Angriff-auf-Israel.html

Monday:

US retail sales came in higher than expected. Instead of the expected 0.3%, it was 0.7% growth in March. The labor market also saw 300,000 new jobs created in March alone.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-us-einzelhaendler-steigern-umsatz-unerwartet-stark/100032604.html

Tuesday:

China's 🇨🇳 economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year from January to March, stronger than expected. However, experts doubt the authenticity of the data. Among other things, home prices in China continued to fall and were 2.7% lower than in the previous year. Retail sales also increased by only 3.1% and industrial production by 4.5%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/konjunktur-chinas-wirtschaft-waechst-deutlich-staerker-als-erwartet/100032723.html

Exciting figures from $EVK (+0,17%) Evonik, the specialty chemicals group earned more than expected. The chemical industry is considered an early cyclical sector, so the good figures could be an indicator of a coming upswing.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/evonik-chemiekonzern-uebertrifft-die-erwartungen-im-ersten-quartal/100032822.html

Wednesday:

The inflation rate in the UK falls less sharply than expected, to 3.2%. However, a fall to 3.1% was expected. This also reduces the likelihood of a rapid interest rate cut in the UK. In the USA, initial analysts are even expecting interest rate hikes again. In the EU, on the other hand, even the trade unions have now complained that the ECB has not yet cut interest rates.

https://www.ft.com/content/f70f52d1-87ac-42f9-a0c3-be3e5e88d711

The $BVB (+2,97%) BVB share can rise significantly today after yesterday's semi-final. Instead of 25 - 35 million euros, the surplus is expected to rise to 33 - 43 million euros. BVB will receive at least 12.5 million euros for reaching the semi-finals.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/aktien/bvb-aktie-legt-zu-millionen-praemie-nach-einzug-ins-champions-league-halbfinale-01/100033105.html?_gl=1*1a4gktr*_up*MQ..&gclid=CjwKCAjw5v2wBhBrEiwAXDDoJeKeX0JnN1c_SzsBP1V0pbGQFqqcEI50UmYAZEJGvBqNZnmaKSZXMhoCa_oQAvD_BwE

Thursday:

Despite the numerous conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran (which supports proxies such as Hamas), Israel's 🇮🇱 economy is back on track for growth. The Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51 points, > 50 points signaling growth.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/nahost-israels-wirtschaft-wieder-zurueck-auf-wachstumskurs/29433048.html

Saturday:

The USA 🇺🇸 passes a 90 billion euro package including military aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan in the House of Representatives. In addition, China's participation (the company Bytedance) in TikTok is banned in the USA. The Senate still has to give its approval.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/usa-repraesentantenhaus-bringt-ukraine-hilfen-und-tiktok-verbot-auf-den-weg/100033612.html

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Monday: 10:00 ifo Business Climate (DE)

Thursday: 10:00 Purchasing Managers' Index (EU)

Friday: 5:00 Interest rate decision (Japan)

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/N2Ux73t4Z70?si=qkahQMBuwcfTOfpx

Monday:

Another increase in orders for German industry, orders rose by 0.2% in September. A decline of one percent was expected. However, the August figures had to be revised downwards significantly. In addition, different sectors are developing very differently. Mechanical engineering is doing much better than vehicle construction.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-deutsche-industrie-mit-erneutem-auftragsplus-im-september/29483256.html

Sentiment in companies has fallen to its lowest level since 2020. The Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 46.5 points. The worst it has been in 35 months. Less than 50 points signal an economic contraction.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/dpa/eurozone-unternehmensstimmung-sackt-auf-tief-seit-november-2020/29483490.html

$RYA (-0,85%) Ryanair achieves a record profit and introduces a regular dividend. In future, 25 % of profits will always be distributed. Previously there were only special dividends. The company is benefiting from high demand and expects a profit of between EUR 1.85 and 2.05 billion for the financial year.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/luftfahrt-ryanair-chef-michael-oleary-fliegt-zum-rekordgewinn/29483640.html

$BNTX (+0,73%) Biontech remains profitable despite a slump in demand for vaccines. A profit of EUR 161 million was achieved in Q3. The sales forecast for 2023 has been reduced from EUR 5 billion to EUR 4 billion.

https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/rheinland-pfalz/mainz/mainzer-impfstoffhersteller-biontech-legt-zahlen-fuer-drittes-quartal-2023-vor-100.html

Tuesday:

$EVK (+0,17%) Evonik makes sales of EUR 4.9 billion, 23% less than in the same quarter last year. The bottom line was a loss of EUR 96 million. The forecast is maintained.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-umsatz-von-evonik-bricht-ein-daimler-truck-steigert-gewinn/24098412.html

In contrast to the other western industrialized nations, Australia is raising its key interest rates to 4.35 %. Inflation remains stubbornly high and is not yet in the 2 - 3 % range.

https://www.ft.com/content/60aa314b-b8e2-4299-ac0e-d212f6d1ae0b

$O2D (+0,35%) Telefonica Deutschland is fully taken over by the parent company. The share price rises again as a result. The Spanish parent company offers the minority shareholders a price of EUR 2.35 per share in this squeeze-out. A premium of more than 37% on the previous share price.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/dax-aktuell-dax-bleibt-im-konsolidierungsmodus-uebernahmenofferte-beschert-telefonica-deutschland-kurssprung/100000566.html

Wednesday:

$BAYN (+0,05%) Bayer disappoints with its quarterly figures. Instead of an expected EBITDA of EUR 1.725 billion, it was only EUR 1.685 billion. Sales slumped by 8% due to the poor performance of the agricultural division. Bayer is nevertheless sticking to its forecast. We continue to hold on to Bayer in our public portfolio, things can hardly get any worse.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-continental-profitiert-von-preiserhoehungen-schwache-agrargeschaefte-belasten-bayer/24098412.html

The $DHL (-0,99%) DHL Group has been accused of conservative forecasts by analysts. However, they were probably not conservative enough. The Group had to cut its forecast. The maximum EBIT for 2023 is now only EUR 6.6 billion. Revenue fell by almost a fifth to EUR 19.4 billion in the third quarter.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/deutsche-post-dhl-kappt-erwartungen-fuer-2023/29487300.html

Retail sales in the eurozone continue to fall. In September, the figure was 0.3 % down on the expected 0.2 %. Nevertheless, the stock market was able to continue its successful trend reversal today.

https://stock3.com/news/eur-usd-eu-einzelhandelsumsaetze-gehen-zurueck-13542061

Thursday:

Inflation in China remains at a low level. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, core inflation is at 0.6% (excluding food and fuel). Imports also rose significantly, while exports shrank. Foreign direct investment was negative for the first time ever. The days of Chinese investors buying up a new company every week seem to be over for the time being.

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/der_boersen_tag/Anstieg-der-Inflation-in-China-article24519017.html

The announcement by $ADYEN (+1,42%) Adyen to become more profitable boosted the share price on Thursday.

https://www.t-online.de/finanzen/boerse/ticker/aktie-im-fokus-adyen-mit-kurssprung-mittelfristziele-staerken-vertrauen/0DAED20095330206/

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell explained in a speech at the IMF meeting that the monetary authorities are not convinced that interest rates are sufficiently restrictive. In other words, there may well be further interest rate hikes. This depressed sentiment on the stock market.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/us-notenbank-fed-chef-jerome-powell-haelt-sich-weitere-zinserhoehung-offen/29493472.html

Friday:

Allianz $ALV (+0,6%) Allianz makes significantly less profit. Operating profit slumped by 14.6% to EUR 3.5 billion in the past quarter. This was mainly due to storms in the Alps in the summer.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/versicherer/versicherungskonzern-unwetter-im-alpenraum-verderben-der-allianz-den-gewinn/29493768.html

$JUN3 (-2,45%) Jungheinrich only reports a slight increase in incoming orders. Analysts had expected more. EBIT fell by 1% to EUR 103 million.

https://www.investor-verlag.de/aktien-und-aktienhandel/deutschland/jungheinrich-aktie/jungheinrich-aktie-gewinn-rueckgang-belastet/

Poor consumer confidence data from the USA, the value was 60.4, 63.7 was expected, mainly due to higher consumer inflation expectations.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/us-verbrauchervertrauen-schwach-erwartungen-fuer-inflation-steigen-deutlich-290739/?amp

The most important dates for the coming week:

Monday: 11:00 Growth forecast (EU)

Tuesday: 11:00 Economic Sentiment (DE)

Wednesday: 03:00 Retail Sales (China)

Thursday: 14:30 Manufacturing Index (USA)

Friday: 14:30 Building Permits (USA)