The share of $GRAB (-0,02%) published on Investing pro
The Southeast Asian Uber counterpart has recently delivered strong figures again. However, despite the strong growth, the share price performance since Q4/25 has been characterized by significant consolidation, with price losses of around 40%. In addition to the cautious outlook, the political poker surrounding the takeover of ailing competitor GoTo and planned regulatory measures by the Indonesian government were the main reasons for the share price decline. However, the growth prospects are intact and the company has recently been in the black.
Today's Grab Holdings Ltd (ISIN: KYG4124C1096) was founded in Singapore in 2012 under the name MyTeksi and acquired the Southeast Asian Uber business in 2018. Grab's core segments include delivery services and mobility services, with revenue shares of around 53% and 36% respectively. In the meantime, another high-growth business segment has been added in the form of financial services, which currently accounts for around 10% of sales. Grab's business is focused on the Southeast Asian region, with Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore having the greatest influence with sales shares of 20 to 30% each.
This was followed by the IPO on the US technology exchange Nasdaq in 2021 and an explosive expansion, with growth rates of 112% and 65% in 2022 and 2023. By the end of the 2025 financial year, revenue had quintupled to USD 3.37 billion compared to the 2021 financial year (USD 675 billion). The latest figures for Q4/25 were solid. Revenue grew by 19% (YoY) to USD 906 million and the gross merchandise volume (total value of goods and services transacted) was at a record level of USD 6.1 billion (+21%). User numbers on the app also increased by 24 %. Grab therefore closed the first financial year in the company's history with a positive net profit of USD 268 million.
The visibility of the business model is currently still limited. The proportion of easily predictable recurring income in the form of subscription fees and interest from lending is currently between 12% and 15% of revenue. However, this is likely to increase significantly in the coming years as a result of the expansion of the finance division.
Growth opportunities overshadowed by increased competition
With estimated economic growth of around 4%, South East Asia is currently one of the fastest growing regions in the world. Inflation is much more stable than in many western industrialized nations and some central banks are already starting to cut interest rates cautiously. The overall economic situation is therefore not the problem for Grab at the moment, it is rather the increased competition that is forcing Grab to take measures to maintain its strong position.
Grab's integrated super app model is currently under attack from various competitors. In the core market of Indonesia, a grueling price war is raging with GoTo (Gojek Tokopedia), forcing both parties to invest huge sums in driver incentives in order to maintain market share in mobility. At the same time, the delivery business is losing ground to competitor Sea Limited (Shopee Food), which is using its dominant e-commerce platform to aggressively bundle food deliveries and
Grab's price-conscious customers.
The situation is also challenging in the fintech sector, where Grab has high user numbers but is struggling with profitability. Both established regional banks and specialized providers such as Sea Money, which achieve more efficient margins, are attacking here, while Grab is currently still facing high customer acquisition costs and rising loan loss provisions in the new segment.
GoTo takeover in planning
Negotiations are currently underway between Grab and GoTo regarding a planned takeover of the heavily indebted competitor. However, the efforts are also attracting the attention of politicians. Although the deal would most likely fail under normal circumstances due to antitrust hurdles, as there would probably be an extreme concentration of market power, the Indonesian government has a considerable interest in preventing GoTo from going bankrupt.
After all, almost 3 million drivers work for the company and recently there has already been considerable unrest in Indonesia due to the inadequate framework conditions for drivers. Under President Prabowo Subianto, the government has also set itself the goal of opening up the country to foreign investors. A campaign against the region's most valuable tech company (Grab) could send the wrong signal to international markets.
Grab therefore has a good negotiating position here, as its strong cash reserves and low level of debt mean that it would most likely emerge victorious from the competition in the end anyway, but the Indonesian government has recently called for massive cuts. The aim is to reduce commission rates for drivers in order to improve their earnings and to pay social benefits for drivers. Both would have a significant impact on company margins.
A final decision by the authorities on the approval of the takeover and the framework conditions is not expected until the end of 2026 at the earliest. We believe that approval is quite likely, but we assume that Grab will not be able to avoid making concessions.
Ultimately, however, the deal could unleash considerable synergies, as GoTo has a similarly extensive logistics network to Grab. This would stabilize prices and at least partially offset the effects of the regulatory measures.
Growth prospects
Grab also has plenty of potential in other areas to offset the effects of the regulatory measures and not only keep margins stable, but to increase them. These include the introduction of new platform fees and the increase in fares, as well as the reduction of driver incentives and marketing discounts for customers. Through the acquisition of the US investment platform Stash (AI-based wealth management) in Q3/26, which has a subscription model with 1.3 million monthly paying users and USD 5 billion in assets under management, and the expansion of digital banks in Southeast Asia, Grab aims to generate high-margin, subscription-based revenues.
Grab invests around 7 to 9 % of its annual revenue in research and development (approx. USD 200-250 million per year), thus laying the foundation for further growth. For example, the company intends to focus more on automation and AI-supported logistics in the future, such as with the acquisition of the AI robotics start-up Infermove, in order to reduce operating costs in delivery. Another potential lever for margins is the expansion of the advertising network (GrabAds) on the platform. This segment offers significantly higher profit margins than the core business.
Even though Grab was unable to beat analysts' high expectations recently despite strong figures for the past quarter Q4/25 and a conservative outlook for 2026, it is clear that the business model still offers enormous growth potential, as analysts ultimately agree. Total revenue is expected to reach USD 8.1 billion by the end of 2030, which corresponds to an annual growth rate of 19% (CAGR). The net margin, which stood at 7% for the 2025 financial year, is expected to be well into double digits by then.
The mood is turning
Grab recently received a positive boost on February 25 when the rating agency S&P Global upgraded its rating from "BB-" to "BB". S&P cited improving earnings quality and the expectation that Grab should be able to maintain its dominant market position in Southeast Asia (mobility and delivery services). According to the latest 13F data, institutional investors have also significantly increased their holdings in Grab recently. The net increase in shares held amounted to around 20% in Q4/25.
Analysts currently recommend the share almost unanimously as a buy (24 buy, 1 hold), with price targets of between USD 4.80 and USD 8. Grab is expected to announce its figures for the first quarter of 2026 on April 29. The share price is also likely to be supported by a further USD 500 million buyback program, which was recently approved. However, the shares are not expected to be withdrawn, as they are to be used as a means of payment for acquisitions such as that of Stash.
Valuation based on turnover
Valuation based on turnover
Measured in terms of turnover, Grab's share price has remained within a very constant range over the last three years. At the annual low, the P/S ratio (price/sales ratio) regularly averaged 4.5 times sales per share; at the annual high, it was 7.5 times. In relation to the expected revenue per share for 2026 of USD 1.03, however, this range was broken downwards in the current year.
This clearly shows that the high valuation level is already being gradually reduced. This usually takes place over several years. However, we see a technical bottom at USD 3.80 at the latest, which would correspond to a KUV of 3.7. Assuming that the multiple will also shift downwards on the upside, we see our price target for 2026 based on the average annual fluctuation range of the last three years of 66% at USD 6.32, which corresponds to a KUV of 6.1.
Another indication of a low valuation is the forward P/E ratio based on the expected net earnings per share for 2030 of USD 0.48 per share, which is currently 9 times higher. If the earnings estimates come true, this would be an extremely favorable valuation for a high-margin business.
Chart technology
The flat upward trend that has been in place since 2022 is currently running at around USD 3.80 and could be tested again shortly. If the trend breaks, a test of the support level at USD 3.40 would be conceivable over a period of several weeks. Below this, there is another very prominent support zone in the USD 3 range. The relative strength on a 14-week basis currently stands at just under 38 points. Since 2022, the price has regularly turned upwards again in the RSI range between 35 and 40. However, a clear reversal trend is not yet discernible.
However, an analysis of the trading volume shows that the value for the so-called turnover days (outstanding shares / average trading volume of the last 90 trading days) indicates the first signs of an approaching trend reversal. The value shows how long it takes on average for the number of outstanding shares to be fully turned over once. Between 2022 and the end of 2024, the value usually traded in a range between 130 and 250 days. From the beginning of 2025, the value fell again significantly, and since October 2025 it has been quoted at a value below 100 days, which indicates an increasing accumulation of the share.
From a technical perspective, a buy signal would be given if the last interim high of USD 4.50 was exceeded.
Grab weekly prices
Conclusion
Grab continues to grow solidly and is creating the potential for further growth through regular investments and acquisitions. The company has only just become profitable and there is no doubt in our view that Grab will continue to expand its profits in the coming years. However, the market will judge Grab on its ability to further expand margins. This uncertainty factor could lead to a further decline in valuation multiples. We therefore do not expect extreme price rises, but assume that the share price will continue its moderate upward trend in the coming years or remain in a stable sideways movement.
However, we see the recent upgrade by S&P Global, the increased interest from institutional investors and the positive sentiment for the share among analysts as positive arguments for a buy. As we consider the share to be strongly undervalued based on the sales forecast of USD 1.03 per share for 2026, we are building up an initial partial position. We see a profit opportunity of 54% up to our price target of USD 6.32.
Investment idea(s) on Grab Holdings
For investors willing to take risks, a turbo call on Grab is a good alternative to the share in order to profit disproportionately from rising share prices. The selected leveraged security with ISIN DE000FC2W325 has a moderate leverage of 3.6 and the knock-out threshold is USD 3.34 (-18.5%). If it is reached, there will be a total loss. Investors should place a stop loss. The spread (bid/ask spread) is 1.03%
