@InvestmentPapa once again invites you to a challenge.

Despite a bumpy first quarter, the large positions remain in the green.

Today will be a nice quiet week of vacation.

Portfolio update: Equities: last week increase $COLO B (-0,22%) + savings plan on $CAKE (-2,21%) . Timeless: bought another share with a discount code. Pokemon: I was able to put together 10 packs from the cards I won and these have found their place in a children's facility.

Happy holidays to all and thank you @InvestmentPapa for this challenge. At the same time I nominate for this challenge @DonkeyInvestor
@DividendenWaschbaer and @TheRealRapha ❤️

The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (+0,09%) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (+0,32%) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (+0,89%) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (+1,28%) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (+3,1%) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (+1,82%) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (+0,45%) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (+10,57%) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (+1,87%) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (-0,22%) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (+1,05%) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (+4,56%) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (+1,86%) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (+1,77%) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (+0,1%) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (+0,65%) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (+0,8%) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (+1,45%) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (+0,82%) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (-0,19%) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (+2,11%) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (+1,41%) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (+1,59%) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (+0,22%) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (-0,07%) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (+3,65%) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (+2,19%) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/

$NU (+1,25%) 10.1€ circa

$VER (+0,83%) 68,95€ circa

$COLO B (-0,22%) 106..... and thus the 4 Danish value.

Coloplast Q3 2024 $COLO B (-0,22%)

Financial Performance

Coloplast achieved a revenue increase of 10% to DKK 27,030 million in the financial year 2023/24, driven by organic growth of 8% and an additional increase of 4% from the acquisition of Kerecis. EBIT before exceptional items increased by 6% to DKK 7,286 million, with a slight decrease in the EBIT margin from 28% to 27% due to dilution effects from the Kerecis acquisition and exchange rate fluctuations.

Balance sheet summary

Total assets remained stable at DKK 48.073 million as at September 30, 2024. Equity increased by 4% to DKK 17,942 million, while net interest-bearing liabilities increased to DKK 21,841 million, mainly due to financing activities in connection with acquisitions.

Details of the income statement

Gross profit increased to DKK 18,269 million, with an improved gross margin of 68% compared to 67% in the previous year, supported by favorable input costs and the contribution from Kerecis. Operating costs increased by 16% to DKK 10,983 million, impacted by the Kerecis acquisition and one-off costs.

Cash flow overview

Free cash flow amounted to DKK 1,430 million, a significant improvement compared to the outflow of DKK 4,731 million in the previous year, despite a one-off tax payment in connection with the transfer of Atos Medical's intellectual property. Cash flows from operating activities amounted to DKK 2,766 million, a decrease compared to DKK 4,226 million due to higher tax payments.

Key figures and profitability ratios

ROIC after tax before exceptional items amounted to 15%, a decrease compared to 17% in the previous year, influenced by the acquisition of Kerecis. The debt ratio was 2.5x EBITDA.

Segment information

The Chronic Care division, including ostomy and incontinence care, recorded strong growth, with incontinence care increasing by 10%. Speech and respiratory care grew by 12 %, advanced wound care by 10 % and interventional urology by 7 %.

Competitive position

Coloplast continuously strengthens its market position through strategic acquisitions such as Kerecis, which are designed to promote long-term growth and profitability. The company uses its scalable infrastructure to further expand the growth potential of Kerecis.

Forecasts and management comments

For the financial year 2024/25, Coloplast expects organic growth of 8-9% and an EBIT margin before special items of around 28%. Management sees further growth potential in the Chronic Care division and continued contributions from Kerecis.

Risks and opportunities

Exchange rate fluctuations and integration costs due to acquisitions represent risks, while opportunities lie in the expansion of market share and the launch of new products such as the Luja™ catheter.

Summary of the results

Coloplast delivered a solid financial performance in financial year 2023/24 with strong sales growth, with strategic acquisitions further strengthening its competitive position. Despite challenges from exchange rate fluctuations and acquisition-related costs, the outlook for the coming financial year remains positive, with a focus on organic growth and efficiency improvements.

Positive aspects:

• Sales growthColoplast recorded strong revenue growth of 10% in the financial year 2023/24, totaling DKK 27,030 million. This growth was mainly driven by organic growth of 8% and an additional contribution of 4% from the acquisition of Kerecis.
• Improvement in gross marginGross profit increased to DKK 18,269 million, which increased the gross margin to 68% (compared to 67% in the previous year). This improvement is due to favorable cost developments in raw materials and the integration of Kerecis.
• Free cash flowColoplast achieved a remarkable turnaround in free cash flow, generating an inflow of DKK 1,430 million compared to an outflow of DKK 4,731 million in the previous year, despite an exceptional tax payment.
• Segment performanceThe various segments recorded strong growth. Significant growth was achieved in Chronic Care, particularly in ostomy and incontinence care, with incontinence care increasing by 10%. In addition, Speech and Respiratory Care grew by 12% and Advanced Wound Care also recorded growth of 10%.
• Strategic acquisitionsThe acquisition of Kerecis is expected to promote the long-term growth and profitability of Coloplast and further strengthen the company's market position.

Negative aspects:

• Rising operating costsOperating costs increased by 16% to DKK 10.983 million, influenced by the acquisition of Kerecis and additional costs related to the establishment of a new distribution center in the US.
• Exchange rate effectsEBIT margin was negatively impacted by exchange rate fluctuations, in particular the depreciation of the US dollar and a number of emerging market currencies against the DKK.
• Decrease in ROICROIC after tax before exceptional items fell to 15%, compared with 17% in the previous year, due to the acquisition of Kerecis.
• Increase in interest-bearing net debtNet interest-bearing debt increased to DKK 21,841 million, mainly due to financing activities in connection with acquisitions, which increased the debt ratio to 2.5 times EBITDA.
• Cash flow from operating activitiesCash flow from operating activities decreased to DKK 2,766 million compared to DKK 4,226 million in the previous year due to higher tax payments.

Companies that I find interesting but do not yet have in my portfolio and that have a 10-year average ROIC of over 10% and a 5-year average ROCE and ROIC of over 10%, $ANET, $MA (+0,14%) , $VRTX (-1,61%) , $RMS (+0,65%) , $PGHN (+1,54%) , $COLO B (-0,22%) , $ACN (+0,27%) , $MNST (-1,16%)
$FICO (+0,04%) , $MCO (+1,6%) , $KNIN (+1,44%) , $S&P Global, $ISRG (+3,65%)
$III (+0,81%) , $BKNG (+0,88%)
$HLAG (+1,07%) , $QCOM (+4,39%) , $CFR (+0,8%) and $IFX (+5,98%) . Already blatant companies

On the subject of founder-managed companies and a performance comparison, I have only found the following certificate.

It includes family-run companies, but only from Europe.

The three largest positions are: $COLO B (-0,22%) , $EZJ (+1,81%) and $BC8 (+0,58%)

The performance clearly lags behind that of the Eurostoxx50! But I don't think that is representative enough.

But whether it is really an advantage that a company is run by its founder depends, I think, above all on the founder's vision and his openness to change.

@Tenbagger2024

+++ Signs of life +++

(from the series: Investment Diary & Thoughts)

Knee surgery survived last week. 🩼

Whether good, is the other question... 😣 In the meantime got postoperative fever, knee still swollen, probably needs to be punctured again... and otherwise so?

I lie around the whole day, meow at my wife from time to time (which I feel sorry for again seconds later, because she certainly can't help it...) and then I think to myself:

Look again in your depot. But no, I don't feel like it. Health and all that. That comes first.

Now I fell so when planking on the sofa suddenly my own trains of thought to the topic invest. And the decision is made after 2 days:

I will make my investing even simpler and less complex.

What follows:

Nearly all BigBlueChips are sorted out and shifted into the MSCI World & MSCI EM. After all, they are represented there anyway, so why bother with them?

What remains for the pension is the MSCI World ($IWDA (+0,98%) ) , MSCI EM ($EIMI (+1,08%))and EUWAX GOLD II ($EWG2 (+1,08%) ).

In addition, I focus on 5 (max. 7) individual stocks. According to the current status these include $ST5 (-1,67%) (Steico SE), $NIBE B (+3,27%) (NIBE "is love"); $YSN (+0,72%) (Secunet); $UKW (+1,54%) (Greencoat for ever - or what better comes); $COLO B (-0,22%) (Coloplast) and $MRK (-0,62%) (Merck KGaA).

Over the years, I have become less and less interested in more.

Investing remains important. But please make it as boring as possible.

The last weeks alone (preparation for surgery and now the aftercare) have shown me that I am not ready for this and especially not able to keep track of 15-20 values. Thus, the focus on investing as simple as possible and still preserve individual value opportunities for me has become more attractive again.

Maybe this will actually create opportunities for the activated trading of 1-2 values from the basic framework... if not, also not so wild. And yet I will be able to focus even better on these values.

Concentrating on a few individual values and a really large core (I'm also talking about more than 150k€ in the core here) is the true core-satellite strategy for me. That I had neglected this over the years somewhat, or expanded - normal. So now "back to the roots", or "back to simplicity".

Time is not money, but valuable in terms of family, free time and your own health.

And otherwise so?

Soon the physiotherapy will start. I have no idea how to cope at the moment, but that will come.

I still have the post on hold for the "Green Investment" and the resolution (win pronounced in the poll) of the winner of the getquin-Cap. Both of which I have not forgotten. As soon as I can sit reasonably, without problems, I will get back to writing.

To getquin I will certainly become more active again, I have time now. At least 8 weeks (with good progress) is a long time.

So, keep your head up, dad is doing it too....

Your KneePapa. 🦵

+++ Numbers, numbers, numbers... +++

(from the series: My Investments)

Yesterday was number(s) day!

Three companies from my portfolio reported their figures in the morning. Here we go...

$YSN (+0,72%)
Secunet Security Networks AG Q1/2023:

Revenue: EURO 55.2 million (previous year: EURO 65.4 million) 🔻

EBIT: -6.2 million EURO (previous year: 8.5 million EURO) 🔻

Orders on hand as of reporting date: 230.6 million EURO (previous year: 184.3 million EURO) ✅

Expected annual sales 2023: unchanged at 375 million EURO (previous year's result: 347.2 million EURO)

expected EBIT 2023: 50 million EURO (previous year: 47.0 million EURO)

Conclusion: Hesitant start into the fiscal year, due to restrained demand from the public sector (authorities and co.). However, a traditionally strong 2nd half is expected. In the books of #secunet have recorded an increase in orders of over 25%, thus laying the foundation for management to achieve its targets. However, personnel costs will also rise in the course of the year, which is why EBIT, among other things, will increase only slightly.

Source:
https://www.secunet.com/ueber-uns/presse/artikel/secunet-startet-verhalten-in-das-jahr-2023-verzeichnet-jedoch-einen-rekordauftragsbestand-und-bestaetigt-die-prognose-fuer-2023

$COLO B (-0,22%)
Coloplast A/S half-year report 2022/2023:

Sales: DKK 12.166 million (EURO 1.63 million; previous year: DKK 10.671 million) ✅

EBIT: DKK 3.445 million (EURO 0.46 million; previous year: DKK 2.920 million) ✅

EBIT margin: 28% (prior year: 31%) 🔻

Half-year dividend: DKK 5 🟰

Conclusion: Growing sales and increased EBIT result. However, with decreased margin, decreased cash flow. This is due to the acquisition of ATOS, the increase in net assets and higher income tax payments. The way is the goal and here we are #coloplast on target.

Source: https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/09d9c68d-b364-44b0-8954-789e0143db34

$MRK (-0,62%)
Merck KGaA Q1/2023:

Sales: EURO 5.293 billion (previous year: EURO 5.198) ✅

EBIT: EURO 1.035 billion (previous year: EURO 1.1173 billion) 🔻

EBITDA: EURO 1.491 billion (prior year: EURO 1.603 billion) 🔻 EBITDA.

Earnings per share: EURO 1.83 (prior year: EURO 2.02) 🔻 Earnings per share.

Cash flow: 853 million EURO (prior year: 840 million EURO) ✅

Conclusion: Mixed results. Weak start in the first quarter of the fiscal year due to the slump in pandemic-related sales and the liquid crystal business (the smallest part of the division of #merck ). Nevertheless, analysts' estimates for EBITDA in particular were slightly exceeded. They had expected the result to be weaker. On the whole, the management considers the issued annual targets to be realistic, at least there is talk of a stable achievement of the key figures compared to the previous year. Importantly, the most recent additions to the market in Merck's pharmaceuticals division, namely the cancer drug Bavencio and Mavenclad for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, were among the sales drivers in the Group.

Source: https://s3.amazonaws.com/nadq2gcsccs-pro-www/202305/2023-Q1-Report-DE.pdf

Bottom Line Over All:

All three companies reported here are struggling with one or the other problem in the current inflation, wage cost, but also (geo)political situation. Satisfactorily, however, it can be stated that the order situation in particular does not tend to be a problem. Although there are a few problem children, as at Merck, the respective core businesses are on target. What applies to the general market naturally also applies to these companies. Wage costs, increased raw material and procurement prices, as well as possible signs of a recession will also make themselves felt here. Nonetheless, the companies are in a fairly stable position and have their sights set on at least maintaining last year's results this year. Such phases are part of the history of the economy and should therefore be taken into account, but not overestimated.

I remain invested in all three companies and will increase in due course.

+++Subsequent purchase: Coloplast +++

(from the series: My Investments)

Again u130€. I won't say "No!" to that. Even if it marks a 6-month high. Long-term investing.

The currently smallest active position in my portfolio so increased before the latest figures for the quarter 01/23 come on May 11.

Topics in the upcoming release should be, in addition to the usual mash of numbers, the product updates and first sales figures on LUJATM, HEYLOTM and the first laser device from #coloplast the Thulium Fiber Laser will be. In addition, the integration of ATOS, which was completed last year, will also be an important point.

At this point, the IR department of Coloplast should be praised for putting every IR interested person on the ATOS newsletter for IR right away. Very good! 👍

Analysts estimate Coloplast's earnings per share averaged $0.089 last quarter, up from $0.085 in the year-ago quarter. Furthermore, sales of approximately USD 886.5 million are expected, which would correspond to an increase of 13.8%. For the year, earnings of 0.32 USD per share are expected. Sales should also increase significantly, to USD 3.61 billion.

It remains exciting. Not, however, my decision to continue to remain loyal to this company and to further expand the position in the future.

If you want to read again why Coloplast is my choice for SRI companies in the portfolio, you will find it in this article:

https://getqu.in/7Nbms8/AHy5OO/

$COLO B (-0,22%)
#sri
#sriinvestments

+++ Cherry Blossom 🌸 +++

(from the series: Investment Diary & Thoughts)

It's that time again:

Every year, the cherry blossom also announces the AGM and dividend season in my portfolio.

Naturally, my German stocks in particular are in the portfolio with $EOAN (+0,51%)
$ALV (-0,2%) and $MRK (-0,62%) the main drivers for the big dividend payment in May, but also other stocks like $COLO B (-0,22%)
$NIBE B (+3,27%) and $UKW (+1,54%) are then in the middle instead of just being there.

So while in the rest of the year in my stock garden rather the motto: "Stupid run, smart wait, wise go to the garden."
prevails, May is a true sign of life in the portfolio. 🌱

Something is happening here, something is growing here (namely, at times, the dividend and its yield).... and if I notice that, how will it only be with our dividend hunters on getquin be? 🤑

This small and sympathetic exception in my portfolio (the strong dividend payment for the remainder of the year) make me then nevertheless also again and again happy. Because, as with the cherry blossom, this is a time that I always look forward to anew.🥳

As is typical for German and European shares, the Annual General Meeting also falls at this time. (because without bees no cherries... er, without AGM no dividend) and here remains only a quote from the garden of long-term growth: "Green is not everything, but without green everything is nothing." 📈

Happy cherry blossom season to you....

(attached a current picture from my garden)

#dividenden
#kirschblüte