Which ones are you invested in?

+107% Intel $INTC (+2,73%)

+92% Credo Techn. $CRDO

+91% Astera Labs $ALAB (+0,44%)

+73% MediaTek $2454

+72% AMD $AMD (+2,31%)

+72% Seagate $STX (+3,48%)

+71% SanDisk $SNDK (+0,91%)

+67% KIOXIA $285A (+3,87%)

+66% ON Semiconductor $ON (-0,19%)

+61% STMicroelectronics $STM (+0,51%)

+55% Marvell $MRVL (+3,42%)

+51% NXP $NXPI (-0,3%)

+49% Siltronic $WAF (-4,12%)

+47% GLOBALFOUNDRIES $GFS (+2,12%)

+47% SK Hynix $000660

+47% Micron $MU (+3,65%)

+46% Infineon $IFX (-2,73%)

+45% Western Digital $WDC (+4,07%)

+43% Texas Instruments $TXN (+2,44%)

+42% Arm Holdings $ARM (+0,91%)

+41% QUALCOMM $QCOM (+2,25%)

+41% Monolithic Power $MPWR (-0,49%)

+40% Aixtron $AIXA (-2,2%)

+40% Microchip Techn. $MCHP (-0,5%)

+34% Broadcom $AVGO (-0,06%)

+30% Skyworks $SWKS (+1,33%)

+25% Samsung Electronics $005930

+24% Analog Devices $ADI (+1,42%)

+18% TSMC $TSM (+1,57%)

+16% Lam Research $LRCX (+0,98%)

+14% KLA $KLAC (-0,43%)

+13% NVIDIA $NVDA (-0,41%)

+10% Applied Materials $AMAT (+0,68%)

+9% ASML $ASML (+0,71%)

I have AMD. Which one do you have?

$IFX (-2,73%) has made a good start to the new year 2026 with +10%.

The € 40 mark was exceeded for the first time since the end of 2021, breaking the years-long sideways trend. The share price was recently supported by its US competitor $MCHP (-0,5%) which recorded high incoming orders in December and also raised its sales forecasts.

While at $IFX (-2,73%) sales in the automotive and industrial sectors are stagnating/declining and margins are also under pressure, finanzen.net sees 2026 as a landmark year for the market position of $IFX (-2,73%) market position. The AI sector with semiconductors for powering AI data centers is seen as the main growth driver.

In this area, the company expects $IFX (-2,73%) expects sales of € 1.5 billion in the new financial year instead of the previously forecast € 1.0 billion. Most recently, turnover amounted to €0.6 billion. CEO Jochen Hanebeck sees the addressable market for Infineon in this area at € 8-12 billion by the end of 2029. The current market share of 30-40% is $IFX (-2,73%) at least maintain it. The envisaged leaps in sales in this area are essential to at least compensate for the problems in the traditional areas (above all automobiles).

To achieve this growth $IFX (-2,73%) is currently building a new plant in Dresden for € 5 billion in record time. This is also the largest single investment in the company's history. The factory should be able to go into operation in summer 2026 - earlier than planned.

I am and will remain invested, how do you see $IFX (-2,73%) in 2026 and, above all, in perspective until the end of the decade? Do you see $IFX (-2,73%) well positioned to generate the planned growth in this area and at the same time positively counter the pressure on margins in the other areas?

$IFX (-2,73%) has left the dividend for Feb 2026 unchanged from 2025 at 0.35.

Chip-Hersteller Infineon: Wie sich Engpässe vermeiden ließen

Infineon-Aktie 2026: Kann der Chiphersteller vom KI-Hardware-Boom profitieren? | 01.01.26 | finanzen.ch

Da ist das Ding: Infineon-Aktie startet mit Kaufsignal ins neue Jahr - DER AKTIONÄR

The United States is facing a heavy budgetary burden. A deficit of 2 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 7% of GDP, is the result of spending of 7 trillion dollars compared to revenues of only 5 trillion dollars. This situation carries the risk of triggering a recession that could spread to the entire economy. Initial data already points to an increase in Arbeitslosenanträge im District of Columbia which is seen as an early indicator of an economic slowdown.

There are currently 3 scenarios for reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP:

• Nominal economic growth of 10% per year: However, this would involve a highly inflationary development and would hardly be politically viable, as the population is already suffering from current price increases.
• Increase in government revenue by 1 trillion dollars: As tax cuts have been the focus in the past (especially under Trump), tariffs, for example, which currently stand at 2-3%, would have to be raised to around 30%, but this could further increase inflationary pressure and exacerbate trade conflicts.
• Spending cuts of 1 trillion dollars: Given that $4 trillion for social benefits (pensions & healthcare) is considered politically untouchable and the $1 trillion interest burden could only be reduced by falling yields, which seems unrealistic if the FED pauses interest rates, the only option left would be to cut the defense budget, by $1 trillion, as well as budgets in areas such as energy, education &transportation.

These austerity measures have contributed to the rise of more populist movements (DOGE & Elon Musk) calling for a reduction in the size of government. Signaling the end of the era of excessive US fiscal commitment. At the same time, market signals, such as the outperformance defensiver Sektoren (consumer goods up 8% last month) and the 30% decline in US homebuilder equities since October, point to growing concerns about economic growth.

2. the Riyadh agreement as a potential turning point

The international geopolitical landscape is increasingly dominated by energy realism. The Trump-Administration faces a dilemma. Lower oil prices would be necessary to combat inflation, but an increase of US-Ölproduktion by 3 million barrels per day - to a total of 16 million - is unrealistic, as shale oil production has only increased by around 1 million barrels in the last three years.

A possible solution could be an agreement in Riyadh with OPEC+:

• OPEC+, in Vienna, could reverse the currently implemented production cuts of 5-6 million barrels per day in return for the lifting of sanctions against Russia and military security guarantees for the Gulf states.
• Such an agreement would accelerate the return to the classic Petrodollar System in which the proceeds from oil exports are reinvested in bonds.

The implementation of this scenario would have far-reaching consequences: Cheaper energy prices could dampen inflation, stabilize global bond markets and strengthen international equities, especially in Europe and EM. At the same time, Europe could be forced to overcome its dependencies on China (in the export sector), the US (in the security sector) and Russia (in energy supply).

3 Europe, China and the cyclical economic recovery

While the US is struggling with structural weaknesses, other regions offer attractive investment opportunities:

• Europe: After the German elections, populist parties, currently representing 29.57% of the vote, may not achieve the necessary one-third majority to create a fiscal stimulus measure, which is also quite speculative. Such a stimulus would strengthen the DAX and the Euro Stoxx50, especially in combination with possibly falling oil prices and extensive reconstruction plans in Ukraine.
• China: "Rising" real estate prices (in January, 24 out of 70 cities recorded price increases or stability in prices) and a possible consumption upswing (with retail sales rising more than 6% year-on-year) could attract international investors. For 2025, the Chinese government is planning targeted measures to promote consumption, including trade subsidies, increased social benefits and incentives for newborns. An acceleration in global purchasing managers' indices (PMI) would also boost demand for Chinese industrial products.
• Japan and South Korea: Both countries are benefiting cyclically from a recovery in the global manufacturing industry, particularly in the semiconductor sector. This includes blue-collar chips such as $ADI (+1,42%) , $MCHP (-0,5%) & $TXN (+2,44%) .

4. technology sector and limited liquidity reserves

The position of the Magnificent 7 is increasingly losing strength, partly due to the rise of Chinese AI providers such as DeepSeek. In addition, the weakness of US homebuilder stocks signals declining consumer power, with Hypothekenanträgen and have recovered again.

Another warning signal is the low liquidity reserve: the share of Barmitteln in Fondsportfolios is only 3.5%, the lowest level since 2010, which makes the markets more susceptible to corrections. Since the "sell signal" in December, the Magnificent 7 has lost 5%, while the MSCI ACWI has gained 2% - a clear indication of a Rotation in internationale Märkte.

5. investment recommendations

• A stronger weighting of long-term bonds, such as 30-year US government bonds, seems sensible, as a flattening of the yield curve & international demand (due to petrodollar recycling) could lead to falling yields.
• Buy the dip offers opportunities to enter export-oriented companies and cyclical sectors, especially in the US & China
• A focus on defensive sectors such as consumer and healthcare as well as blue-collar semiconductors is recommended, as these could benefit from a recovery in the purchasing managers' indices.
• Gold can be recommended as a hedge against geopolitical risks, while a cautious positioning in oil is advisable, as the upcoming OPEC+ negotiations could lead to increased volatility.

Why I am currently bearish on the market, a report.

1. macroeconomic environment

US exceptionalism: dominance and risks

• US market at all-time highs:
• S&P 500 and other indices are at a 75 year high compared to the rest of the world. This is based on strong macroeconomic fundamentals, the attractiveness of the US market and a high risk appetite among investors.
• Problematic strengthSuch a level could indicate overvaluation. Any weakness in the US growth data could trigger an abrupt correction.

• Record high US dollar:
• The US dollar is at a 55 year high in the real effective exchange rate (REER). (The REER measures the competitiveness of a currency against the currencies of its major trading partners, taking into account inflation and trade volume) This increases the pressure on emerging markets and burdens the competitiveness of US exporters.
• John Connally's paradox ("The dollar is our currency, but your problem"): While a strong dollar is a sign of global confidence in the short term, it creates tensions, especially for countries with high dollar debts. (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, India, etc.)

Interest rates and inflation

• Rising interest rates and risks in the credit market:
• Should yields on 3Y US government bonds rise to 5 % (and the 2-year to 4.5 %), financing conditions could deteriorate sharply. This would particularly affect credit-dependent sectors such as small capsemerging markets and corporate bonds.
• Financials (KBE)Banks may initially benefit from higher interest rates, but could collapse if financing conditions deteriorate. financing conditions become excessively restrictive. KBE stands for Credit-Bank ExposuresThis refers to the loans and financing that banks grant to companies or other institutions.

• US financial conditions are tightening:
• With expectations of interest rate cuts by the FED canceled and long-term yields rising (even without political measures), the first "cracks" in liquidity are appearing:
• Gold: Outflows of -1.6 bn $.
• EM Equities: Strong sell-off.
• Risk parity strategies: Vulnerable to volatility

Trump 2.0 and his radical policies

• The return of a "Trump-like" approach could move markets sharply:
• Positive in the short term: Tax cuts, infrastructure programs and protectionist measures could boost growth and investment in the US in the short term.
• Negative in the long termTrade wars, higher tariffs and global decoupling could weigh on growth worldwide.
• You can find out more on my account

2. market movements and financing conditions

US equity markets

• Massive capital inflowsUS equities are seeing the largest inflows since March 2024 (+$55.8bn), with records in large caps (+$44.1bn) and a focus on small caps (+$6.7bn).

• Sector-specific trends:
• Materials (+$5.6bn)Investors expect infrastructure programs and investments in the real economy.
• Financials (+$2.6 billion)Banks benefit from higher interest rates, but could suffer from rising defaults or recession risks.

Gold and commodities

• GoldOutflows of -1.6 bn $ show a clear move away from "safe havens". This is typical for a phase of risk appetite.

• Commodities and semiconductors:
• Commodity producers benefit from short-term demand due to inventory build-up.
• Semiconductors (SOX back to 200-day line): In particular "blue collar" semiconductors ($STM (+0,51%) , $ON (-0,19%) , $MCHP (-0,5%) ) in particular are suffering from weak global PMIs, which shows their dependence on EM production.

3. global trends and emerging markets

Capital outflows and global disparities

• EM markets: Largest outflows since 2015 (-$7.5bn in one week).
• China under pressure:
• Record outflows (-$21.1bn over 5 weeks) point to a confidence deficit.
• Macroeconomic challengesWeak growth, real estate crisis, capital controls.
• Geopolitical tensionsTrade barriers and US sanctions act as an additional burden.

Risk of a global recession

• EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) (-8 %) and India (-10 %) under pressure:
• Weaker economic data and capital outflows signal growing global fears of recession.

• Emerging markets in crisis:
• Weaker currencies and rising dollar costs are making it difficult for countries such as Brazil, Argentina and Turkey to refinance their debt.

4. capital flows and investment strategies

Fund Flow Highlights:

• Cryptoinflows of $6 billion reflect the willingness to invest in alternative assets.
• Bank Loansinflows of $2.1bn show an increase in riskier credit strategies.
• EM: Outflows from equities (-$7.5bn) and bonds show a clear reduction in risk.

Hennington Research Approach:

• US positioning:
• Favored large caps and materials short term as long as the US economy is supported.
• Reconsider exposure to small caps as they are vulnerable to interest rate changes.
• Avoid emerging markets:
• Capital outflows and dollar weakness continue to weigh on these markets.
• Monitor yield risks:
• A breach of 5% in 30-year Treasuries could mark a turning point. Watch bond markets at all times.

Microchip Technology$MCHP (-0,5%) has announced that CEO Ganesh Moorthy will retire at the end of November. His successor will be Steve Sanghithe current Chairman of the Board and former CEO of the company. Moorthy has worked at Microchip for more than two decades and has been CEO since March 2021. Sanghi, who already has a long history of leadership at Microchip, will return to the role to ensure the continuity and strategic direction of the company.

This leadership change comes at a time when Microchip is expanding its market position in semiconductor technologies and addressing the growing demand for smart and connected solutions.

Source:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4304328-microchip-says-ceo-moorthy-will-retire-will-be-replaced-by-sanghi

The news is based on what I personally consider to be reputable sources. However, I do not guarantee their accuracy. No advice.

I came up with a crazy idea and I wanted to share my work with you. I decided to organize my watchlist according to different criteria. The best stock gets 10 points and the worst gets 1 point. It is important to mention that this is a snapshot and can change at any time.

The criteria were:

- Market value (the higher the better as with the s&p)

- 52W low difference

- 52W high difference (at least 15 percent 52 w of high)

- Wallstreet rating ( strong buy )

- Price Target Difference

- Z score

- Sales forecast for the next 5 years

- EPS forecast for the next 5 years

- Forward PE ( the lower the better )

- ROIC ( the higher the better)

- Gross profit margin ( the higher the better)

- Net margin ( the higher the better)

-FCF margin ( the higher the better)

- Profit per employee ( the higher the better)

- PEG Ratio ( the lower the better)

- Beta (the lower the better)

- FCF Yield (the higher the better)

- Earning Yield ( the higher the better)

- Current ratio ( the higher the better)

-Short ratio ( the lower the better)

- Quick ratio ( the higher the better)

- Debit / EBITDA (the lower the better)

Place 1- $LRCX

2nd place $SNPS (+2,12%)

3rd place 3- $NOVO B (-0,34%)

Place 4- $MCHP (-0,5%)

5th place $REGN (-1,63%)

Place 6- $MCK (-1,71%)

ATTENTION: many industries cannot be compared directly, which is why, for example, gastronomy providers perform relatively poorly in such a test or the transportation sector such as ODFL. Here you can only compare shares from the same sector.

I would be very interested to know what you think of my approach? What can be done better here to achieve even more accurate results? Which criteria would you use and which not?

I am very curious about your feedback.

Thank you very much in advance 😘

Semiconductor shares since their 52-week highs

-61% Intel $INTC (+2,73%)

-54% Aixtron $AIXA (-2,2%)

-45% STMicroelectronics $STMPA (-0,09%)

-44% Micron Technology $MU (+3,65%)

-37% Globalfoundries $GFS (+2,12%)

-36% BE Semiconductor $OXVE

-33% Lam Research $LRCX

-29% AMD $AMD (+2,31%)

-29% Qualcomm $QCOM (+2,25%)

-28% ON Semiconductor $ON (-0,19%)

-27% ASML $ASML (+0,71%)

-26% Applied Materials $AMAT (+0,68%)

-26% Elmos Semiconductor $ELG (-1,39%)

-24% Microchip Techn. $MCHP (-0,5%)

-23% ARM $ARM (+0,91%)

-23% Synopsys $SNPS (+2,12%)

-23% Infineon $IFX (-2,73%)

-22% NXP Semiconductors $NXPI (-0,3%)

-20% Cadence Design $CDNS (+3,52%)

-17% Nvidia $NVDA (-0,41%)

-17% VanEck Semicon. ETF $IE00BMC38736 (+0,97%)

-17% Nordic Semi $NRS

-17% KLA Corporation $KLAC (-0,43%)

-13% Marvell Technology $MRVL (+3,42%)

-12% TSMC $2330

-11% Broadcom $AVGO (-0,06%)

-7% Texas Instruments $TXN (+2,44%)

-6% Monolithic Power Syst. $MPWR (-0,49%)

>> Which stocks are you invested in and how are they performing? Which of these stocks do you have on your watchlist? #semiconductor
#halbleiter