$1COV (+0,11%) Yesterday, the takeover bid for Covestro fluttered into my mailbox. 62 per share.
What do you think? How do you deal with it?
Covestro
Azione
Azione
ISIN: DE0006062144
Ticker: 1COV
DE0006062144
1COV
Price
Discussione su 1COV
Messaggi
35
3Mes·
Small trade idea in the morning.
$1COV (+0,11%) The share is at a support level and at the same time I am speculating on a final takeover bid by Adnoc.
Price range should be between 57 and 62€.
Would be €1.37 in the bill
I would buy if the price reaches the zone again and sell if it falls below it.
https://de.tradingview.com/news/dpa_afx:d24d681437d1e:0/?mobileapp_new=true
66
4Mes·
+++Summary of earnings this morning, 30.07.+++
$BP. (+0,03%) achieves an EBIT (adjusted) of $5.41 billion (analyst forecast: $5.52 billion) and a net profit of $2.76 billion (forecast: $2.69 billion) in Q2. The dividend for the 2nd quarter is expected to be 8 cents per share (forecast: 7.8 cents). BP plans to buy back shares with a volume of $3.5 bn in the second half of the year.
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Redcare Pharma $RDC (+0,15%) achieved sales of €560.67 million in the 2nd quarter (previous year: €419.9 million) and EBITDA (adjusted) of €15.04 million (previous year: €13.25 million). A net profit of €12.57 million (previous year: -€14.4 million) was reported in the first half of the year. Outlook confirmed.
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Fuchs $FPE (+0,16%) achieved sales of €1.76 billion (previous year: €1.82 billion, analyst forecast: €1.76 billion), EBIT of €218 million (previous year: €200 million, forecast: €217.6 million) and net profit of €155 million (previous year: €141 million) in the first half of the year. Outlook confirmed.
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Covestro $1COV (+0,11%) achieved sales of €3.69 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €3.72 billion, analyst forecast: €3.69 billion), EBITDA of €320 million (previous year: €385 million, forecast: €311 million) and a net result of -€72 million (previous year: €46 million, forecast: €14 million). In the outlook for 2024, Covestro is adjusting its forecast and now sees free operating cash flow of -€100 to +€100 million (previously: €0 to €300 million, analyst forecast: €173 million) and EBITDA of €1.0 to €1.4 billion (previously: €1.0 to €1.6 billion, forecast: €1.25 billion).
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Heidelberg Materials $HEI (+0,08%) achieved sales of €5.51 billion in Q2 (previous year: €5.58 billion, analyst forecast: €5.55 billion) and EBIT (adjusted) of €971 million (previous year: €931 million, forecast: €981 million). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.
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Fresenius Medical Care $FME (+0,16%) achieves sales (adjusted) of €4.74 billion (previous year: €4.74 billion), operating income (adjusted) of €433 million (previous year: €400 million, forecast: €433 million) and net income (adjusted) of €207 million (previous year: €176 million, forecast: €201 million) in the second quarter. Forecast confirmed.
66
6Mes·
A tale from our youth 👨🏻🔧🏭
Since I had some time today and took the opportunity to stow away my relics of days gone by, I found the mementos of when I started my career. Both the badge and the IGBCE membership card.
For those who are not familiar with it: The Industriegewerkschaft - Bergbau, Chemie, Energie is the second largest industrial union in Germany after IG Metall. It represents the interests of the 580,000 members in the mining, chemical and energy sectors in Germany.
Some readers may be interested to know what impact the current wage negotiations in the chemical industry may have on German shares in this sector.
The chemical industry currently employs around 585,000 people. Of these, around 464,000 are considered "employees".
The largest employer in the industry in Germany is BASF $BAS (+0,1%) with just under 51,000 employees. It is followed by Merck $MRK (+0,11%) (approx. 28,000) and Bayer $BAYN (+0,1%) (approx. 22,000), but also Henkel $HEN (+0,1%) Lanxess $LXS (+0,26%) and Covestro $1COV (+0,11%) are also major listed employers in the industry in Germany.
What can be recognized?
Across the industry, all companies have been deeply affected by past price shocks and the resulting economic weakness. This can be clearly seen in the share prices due to the price jumps in electricity and gas. Although the prices for electricity and gas have fallen back to an acceptable level, the order situation is rather miserable. The 3rd quarter of 2024 promises an improvement.
But could an economic upturn also boost profits again?
In the industry, long-term supply contracts are concluded. Supply contracts with reliable partners are rarely terminated. Instead, higher prices are passed on to the end customer. In many places, however, customers are no longer prepared to dig deeper into their pockets, which is why it is expensive to retain customers or acquire new ones. And if they do? Then new customers are lured in by low-cost offers, even though producers have to pay extra for years. The important thing here is that the production plant costs remain lower than the loss due to new contracts. Depending on the size of an idle production plant, the costs per hour can be in the four to five-digit euro range. So: the main thing is to produce, regardless of whether you have to pay hundreds of euros for months for a supply contract. The losses can be offset in the balance sheet with more profitable business or, under certain conditions, written off and thus save taxes. (Please note that this depends on the individual company and its business strategy. This cannot be generalized under any circumstances).
Back to the topic. What is the union demanding for the employees?
It is explicitly about
- a wage increase of 7%
- Better conditions for union members compared to non-members
- Revision of the federal collective wage agreement (this is explicitly about the integration of certain activities into the wage groups of the collective agreement)
In view of the fact that the union argues that employees' real wages have fallen back to the level of the 2010s due to inflation and that neither side is willing to compromise on this, the risk of strike action in the sector appears to be realistic for the first time since the 1970s.
But why?
- Sales in the chemical-pharmaceutical industry are weakening. There was no significant increase in turnover from 2022 to 2023.
- The profits of some companies have almost completely collapsed.
- They would not have survived these years without state aid. The reports of some German stocks show record sales due to the government price brakes on electricity and gas. The management also communicated this to investors, causing share prices to collapse accordingly.
- The sales markets are weakening. High inflation in the euro and dollar zones has left its mark. Real wages only climbed back to the 2021 level towards the end of 2023. People had to pay the difference in 2022 out of their own pockets, even though the state also subsidized the inflation compensation premium. Of course, many small and medium-sized companies in particular were not in a position to bear these employee costs.
What could happen next? (3 scenarios)
- Employers and trade unions negotiate a wage increase that is acceptable to both sides. Collective bargaining peace is maintained. Companies can calculate the economic upswing without further cost pressure. (This would also be a bullish signal for share prices in the chemical industry).
- Employers are uncompromising in their response to the union's demands. Cost pressure is increasing, which is likely to further dampen the chemical industry's business index, but the risk of strikes can be eradicated. (This would lead to further capital outflows from company stocks. However, investors can speculate on sales/integrations. The scenario is conceivable, as Covestro shows).
- The employers and trade union cannot reach an agreement. Strikes take place in the chemical industry in Germany for the first time since the 1970s. This could strengthen the employees and their influence. At the same time, however, it could give employers another reason to focus on their investments abroad. (This would be fatal for German manufacturers, their share prices and at the same time a downward impulse for a key industry in the German economy.
All in all, the German industrial landscape remains exciting and at the same time offers opportunities for investors. However, if you are invested in this sector, it is highly recommended that you follow the wage negotiations. On June 30, the current collective wage agreement for the chemical industry ends and with it the obligation to maintain peace. It remains exciting.
What do you think? Is it really conceivable that there will be strikes in a key German industry? Would politicians actively intervene and disrupt the autonomy of collective bargaining?
3333
13 Commenti
I used to be a member of the IGBCE - but I left a while ago... no longer think much of trade unions😅
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22
•11Mes·
The speculation is working! Turnaround fully intact. 🚀
Deutsche Bank $DBK (+0,09%) is to find a buyer for the polyurethane division of Lanxess $LXS (+0,26%) to find a buyer.
This follows the German plastics competitor Covestro $1COV (+0,11%) in the departure of the plastics industry from Germany.
The exit will help Lanxess to further reduce its debt and continue to focus on specialty chemicals and further expand and consolidate its market position there. This division in the chemical industry is indispensable for good margins and future-oriented profits.
1Anno·
Spin the speculation carousel. 💸
It looks very gloomy above the clouds of the energy-intensive industry in Germany, but with exactly one value within the sector, the decline really annoys me the most. Therefore, I think that these could soon be taken over due to their now low stock market value.
I would like to present a few plausible reasons why I think this and why I may also speak of a significant undervaluation in general.
The stocks in question are Lanxess $LXS (+0,26%) .
Lanxess was the spin-off of the plastics division of the Bayer Group. It has been independently active on the stock market since 2005.
It has developed from a sad subsidiary into a successful and highly competitive company with still enormous group potential.
Here are some reasons why the share is clearly undervalued.
1. the market segment
Lanxess is primarily based in the chemical industry, but there are equally high-margin segments in this industry that Lanxess fills.
One supplies the important segments of:
- High-Performance Materials, including synthetic rubber and intermediates (Advanced Intermediates)
- Specialty Additives
- Consumer Products
The fact is that you come into contact with products from the Lanxess brand portfolio every day.
Here are a few examples:
- Kalaguard - preservatives for hygiene products and cosmetics.
- Lewatit - exchange resins for water treatment in small and large applications (such resins are normally found in every household appliance that runs on water, such as the dishwasher)
- Mesamoll - a plasticizer for plastics. Found mainly in stable application areas, such as waterbeds, and therefore high-margin or "expensive" for the consumer.
- Saltidin - the active ingredient par excellence for "mosquito or tick sprays
- Oxone - the chlorine-free pool cleaner for your home swimming pool.
Net margins of ~15% are not rare here, but rather average.
2. competition
Lanxess is the market leader in most areas of its chemical products and clearly competes with the top dog BASF in its areas. $BAS (+0,1%) and is challenging the Ludwigshafen-based company right down to its very substance.
3. production sites
Lanxess is also globally diversified in its choice of locations and thus linked to different markets in terms of cost balance. A decline of the German production sites would be devastating, roughly speaking, but not the end of the company.
It must be admitted, however, that most of the sites in Germany have definitely already been paid off and therefore represent the Group's cash cow. In the current situation, too much is coming together.
- The loss of consumption among the population
- High costs and, in some cases, insolvencies of downstream manufacturers
- Competitive pressure
- Flooding of the European market with Asian products
4. management
The management of Lanxess under Matthias Zachert is definitely a role model for the German industrial landscape. They recognize sensible market opportunities at an early stage and steer the Group specifically into high-margin niches, while at the same time maintaining the limit for expenditures within the framework.
It is not without reason that Buffet also holds a 5% stake in the company.
5. takeover theory
The following is of course only my thoughts and therefore pure speculation.
Since the downfall of the stock exchanges in 2022, German industrial stocks have not caught on. The current economic environment is too bad. The political support impulses are completely missing. Various industry associations are increasingly criticizing the economic competence behavior of the federal government, whereas the state governments have already recognized the seriousness of the situation and are assuring the companies of binding support.
Even with the Covestro offer, one could assume that foreign investors were keeping a closer eye on German industry in order to take advantage of the favorable prices.
Another likely example due to its unique brand portfolio may be Lanxess.
The enterprise value is likely to be slightly below €5 billion in 2023, whereas the sales outlook continues to be upward. The market value, on the other hand, is only put at just under €2 billion. However, a takeover bid of around €5 billion is estimated to be acceptable. The second factor, on the other hand, will be the management, but with the right sum one may certainly not deny.
But who would be interested in this?
It would be reasonable to assume that other Oriental emirates and funds would launch a capital attack on Europe and especially Germany in order to expand their economic and political influence here and accelerate the move away from oil. With a sustainable portfolio, such as Lanxess has, this would be an ideal complement.
But also US corporations, such as Dow $DOW (+0,56%) or DuPont $DD (+0,35%) could give a boost to their dominance of the plastics markets and absorb the innovative power of the German chemical industry. Difficult, however, would be antitrust concerns by the competition. But here, too, detours could be found through shareholdings or concessions to the competition, similar to the Linde $LIN (-0,07%) -Praxair merger.
What do you think about this?
55
1Anno·
As every Sunday, the most important dates of the coming week and the news of the last week.
The most important dates in the video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/q6UzjDvEMvc?si=0N-11GnIvot8vU_7
Monday:
Switzerland 🇨🇭 is struggling with similar problems to Germany. In the 2nd quarter, the economy did not grow. Although consumption increased, industry shrank. The hospitality industry in particular grew significantly.
https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/bip-stagniert-die-schweizer-wirtschaft-waechst-nicht-mehr-ld.1754542
The Swiss group $NESN (+0,1%) Nestlé sells its peanut allergy business Palforzia. The biopharma company Stallergenes Greer is buying Nestlé's shares. However, Nestlé will continue to be involved in research successes.
Following a price target confirmation at 51 euros from Kepler Cheuvreaux, the share of $KGX (+0,24%) Kion share price has risen significantly. We have held the share in our value portfolio for some time.
German exports fell again, 0.9% compared with the previous month of June. Goods worth 130.4 billion euros were still exported. The most important customer country remains the USA 🇺🇸, exports to which rose by 5.2%.
Tuesday:
Things are still not going well in China 🇨🇳. China's service sector was slower in August than it has been in 8 months. The Caixin purchasing managers index fell from 54.1 to 51.8 points.
https://www.handelszeitung.ch/newsticker/chinas-dienstleistungssektor-verliert-an-schwung-634176
$SB1 (+0,22%) Smartbroker released its first-half results. Sales fell significantly, and the sales forecast for the full year has to be revised downwards. Instead of 51 to 56 million, sales of EUR 46 to 51 million are now expected.
Wednesday:
Manufacturing orders slumped 11.7% in July compared to the same month last year. Economists had expected a drop of only 4.0%.
The Ukrainian economy grew by 2.2% in the year to July. In 2022, the economy slumped massively due to Russia's war of aggression; now the economy is recovering a little.
Some changes in the German indices. United Internet moves up to the MDAX, while Krones moves to the SDAX. Also $NCH2 (+0,4%) Thyssenkrupp Nucera moves up to the SDAX, as does Ionos, Basler drops out.
Retail sales in the euro zone fell slightly, down 0.2% on the previous month. However, business with food, beverages and tobacco picked up.
Thursday:
$NESN (+0,1%) Nestlé buys chocolate manufacturer Copenhagen for about EUR 500 million. This improves Nestlé's position in the Brazilian market.
$SAP (+0,09%) SAP buys the software management company Leanix. The company offers a cloud platform for transparency of its own IT systems. Customers thus learn which IT systems they actually use, which helps with modernization. According to experts, the deal could have cost around 1.2 billion euros.
$AAPL (+0,49%) Apple is under pressure because of bans in China. Allegedly, Beijing is banning officials from using IPhones. The ban affects a few million people, so the stock is also giving way. Already when Felix was in China, the state promoted switching to the Chinese manufacturers ZTE or Huawei. With the ban, China is now presumably also reacting to the USA's ban policy.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. 🇺🇸 fell further to 216,000. This is the lowest level in 7 months and is increasingly fueling concerns that there could be another interest rate hike.
Friday:
Bad data from Japan 🇯🇵 makes for a bad start to the day. Japan's GDP is growing more slowly than expected. Japan grew 4.8% in the second quarter, but growth of 5.5% was expected.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/09/08/asia-stock-markets-today-live-updates.html
In China 🇨🇳 , auto sales are picking up again for the first time since May. Compared to the previous year, car sales increased by 2.2%. Tesla in particular benefited from this, with almost 65,000 Teslas sold in China in August alone thanks to discount campaigns.
$1COV (+0,11%) Covestro is finally ready for talks with Adnoc. The Abu Dhabi-based oil company wants to buy Covestro, but the Board of Management has so far rejected this. Talks were only held through advisors, but now official talks are being held. Adnoc would probably be willing to pay EUR 60 per share.
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Monday: 08:00 Inflation data (Norway)
Tuesday: 11:00 ZEW survey (DE)
Wednesday: 14:30 Inflation data (USA)
Thursday: 14:15 ECB interest rate decision
Friday: 04:00 Retail Sales (China)
www.youtube.comDie WICHTIGSTEN Termine der kommenden Woche
99
1Anno·
Stock analysis/Share presentation ⬇️✌🏽
Today we are talking about the company Covestro: $1COV (+0,11%)
What is and does Covestro anyway 🧐
Covestro is a German company that specializes in the production of high-performance materials. They develop and produce materials for various industries such as automotive, construction, and electronics. Covestro is known for its innovative solutions and has a strong focus on sustainability. They work to develop materials that are more environmentally friendly and conserve resources. The company has a strong global presence and strives to have a positive impact on society through its products. Covestro is a major player in the chemical industry and is committed to continuous innovation and progress.
How many employees does the company have: 🙋🏽♂️🙋🏻♀️
Covestro currently employs a total of around 16,500 people.
Market capitalization: 🏦
Covestro currently has a market capitalization of around €12.5 billion.
Dividend yield: 💰
The company does not currently pay a dividend to its shareholders. The last dividend paid by Covestro to its shareholders was in 2022.
Strengths of the share: 📈
Some of Covestro's strengths are:
- Innovative strength: Covestro invests heavily in research and development to develop innovative solutions and materials. They are known for their breakthrough developments in polycarbonates, polyurethanes and coatings.
- Broad product portfolio: Covestro offers a wide range of high-performance materials for various industries. These include materials for the automotive industry, construction, electronics, the furniture industry and much more.
- Sustainability: Covestro attaches great importance to sustainability and is actively working to develop more environmentally friendly products. They are committed to using renewable raw materials and working on solutions to reduce emissions and waste.
- Global presence: Covestro operates worldwide and has a strong presence in various countries. They have production sites, distribution centers and research facilities around the world to serve their customers globally.
- Customer focus: Covestro works closely with their customers to develop customized solutions. They place great emphasis on the needs and requirements of their customers and work to meet and exceed their expectations.
Weaknesses of the share: 📉
Some weaknesses of Covestro are:
- Dependence on the economy: Covestro is highly dependent on economic developments, especially in sectors such as the automotive and construction industries. Weaker economic phases can have a negative impact on demand for its products.
- Price volatility of raw materials: Covestro is heavily dependent on raw materials such as crude oil, the prices of which can fluctuate significantly. High raw material costs can affect its margins and impair its competitiveness.
- Competitive pressure: Covestro operates in a highly competitive market and competes directly with other chemical companies. Competitive pressure may affect its prices, market shares and profit margins.
- Environmental risks: As a company in the chemical industry, Covestro faces challenges related to environmental and sustainability issues. They must ensure that their production processes and products comply with strict environmental standards.
- Dependence on key customers: Covestro has a few major customers from whom they generate a significant portion of their sales. Dependence on a few key customers can pose a risk, as changes in demand or the business relationship with these customers could affect their financial performance.
A little more about the business model: 🙏🏾
Covestro's business model is based on the production and sale of high-performance materials. Covestro is a global leader in the chemical industry and focuses on the development of innovative plastics and polymer solutions. Covestro serves various industries including automotive, construction, electronics, furniture, sports and leisure, and packaging and textiles. They offer a wide range of products that can be used in many different applications. An important part of Covestro's business model is the continuous research and development of new materials and solutions. They invest significantly in the development of innovative plastics to meet the changing needs of customers. Through their research and development activities, they strive for sustainable solutions that reduce environmental impact and contribute to the circular economy. Another important aspect of Covestro's business model is close collaboration with customers. They work closely with their customers to understand their requirements and offer tailored solutions. This close collaboration enables them to continuously improve their products and develop innovative solutions that meet their customers' needs. Covestro also has a strong global presence with production sites and distribution networks around the world. This enables them to distribute their products internationally and serve customers worldwide. In addition, Covestro places great emphasis on sustainability and pursues the goal of developing sustainable solutions and continuously improving their own sustainability performance. They are committed to the responsible use of resources and are working to reduce their environmental footprint.
When and where was Covestro founded:
Covestro was spun off as an independent company in 2015 and is headquartered in Leverkusen, Germany. It was formed from the split-up of Bayer AG, which previously comprised the plastics business. Covestro has since grown into a global company with operations and production facilities around the world. The creation of Covestro enabled the company to focus on the development and manufacture of innovative plastics solutions and to consolidate its position as one of the leading suppliers in the industry.
Covestro's goal: 🏁
Covestro is a leading company in the plastics industry and pursues the goal of developing innovative solutions for sustainable products. The company strives to improve the quality of life while minimizing environmental impact. Covestro is committed to circular economy and works to recycle and reuse plastics. Through research and development, new materials and technologies are developed to meet customer needs. Covestro is also committed to social responsibility and sustainability by investing in education, environmental protection and social projects. The company strives to create a sustainable future in which plastics make a positive contribution
Your opinion 🧐🤔
Now I would like to hear your opinion on this stock in the comments.
What do you think of Covestro and did you already know this company?
Do you guys maybe already have this stock in your portfolio?
Feel free to let me know in the comments.
Of course, this is not investment advice but just my own opinion that I would like to share with you.
1111
9 Commenti
1Anno
Moin, Watchlist ✅. The Saudis / Adnoc Group is conducting takeover talks. Exciting what comes out at the end.
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11
•1Anno·
As every Sunday, the most important news of the last week and the dates of the coming week.
The dates of the coming week as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/9slv_6lrsUE?si=wyuXHFEHzMM6VORY
Monday:
Real estate crisis in Germany 🇩🇪 and in China 🇨🇳, Country Garden falters in China. The next project developer after China Evergrande. In Germany, Development Partner, the Project Group and Euroboden are three project developers sliding into insolvency. The effects in China, however, would be more drastic. A large part of the global assets are in the Chinese real estate market, which is considered to be highly overvalued.
$NWO Xing (New Work) earns less money. Sales stagnated, earnings were 24% below the previous year's level. The reasons are fewer paid memberships and higher personnel expenses.
$FOXT (+0,62%) Foxconn lowers forecast, Apple's contract manufacturer suffers from generally low demand for consumer electronics.
The inflation rate in #indien 🇮🇳 is rising significantly. The reason for this is rising food prices. Inflation rises to 7.44% in July. The forecast was only 6.6%.
https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/retail-inflation-rate-in-india-iip-cpi-data-17527381.htm/amp
New offer from bidder Adnoc from Abu Dhabi for $1COV (+0,11%) Covestro, the price is now EUR 60. Management has so far resisted the takeover.
https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/covestro-bietet-adnoc-bald-60-euro-je-aktie-20337641.html
Zhongzhi Enterprise also facing problems - The Chinese asset manager cannot service part of its payment obligations. The renminbi falls to new lows. One yuan now costs only USD 0.14.
Tuesday:
Chinese growth appears to be slowing right now. The central bank announces a surprise interest rate cut. Industrial production was only 3.7% above the previous year's level instead of the expected 4.4%. The interest rate cut further devalues the national currency, supports the economy and makes imports from China even more attractive.
Possible downgrade of the creditworthiness of the major US banks. This step is currently being considered by the rating agency Fitch and is causing uncertainty on the markets.
Wednesday:
Hangover on the stock market - after the record highs in the DAX, prices are currently falling again. Among other things, the bad Chinese economic data, as well as the possible downgrade in U.S. banks, cloud the mood. In addition, it became known that Michael Burry once again shorts the market.
Matching the new expert recommendation from the Ministry of Economic Affairs, it is known that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is again making record profits. The fund grew by 130 billion euros to 1.3 trillion euros.
Significant drop in inflation in the UK, inflation fell to 6.8%, which was expected. However, core inflation was 10 basis points higher than expected at 6.9%.
$700 (-1,4%) Tencent is growing again but missed market expectations. Although revenue rose by eleven percent and profit by 41 percent, analysts had expected more.
The FED minutes show above all that the central bankers are at odds. As already communicated, the next interest rate decisions will probably be data-driven. There is much to be said for a pause in interest rates, but there could also be a further increase.
Thursday:
$CSCO (+0,29%) Cisco expects lower revenue growth, but was able to increase profits significantly.
The Swiss sanitary technology group $GEBN (+0,11%) Geberit is selling less due to the construction slump. The Group therefore expects a decline in sales for the full year.
#china is trying to protect the renminbi from a further decline in value by selling dollars. With China struggling with a weaker currency due to the interest rate cut, dollar reserves are now being sold.
$ADYEN (+0,17%) is struggling with an unexpected operating profit slump. The payment service provider from the Netherlands has been known as the 'working' Wirecard competitor.
According to Europace, real estate prices continue to fall in July. Condominiums lost on average 0.79% in value compared to the previous month, new construction houses by 0.23% and existing houses by 0.45%.
Friday:
Space X sells crypto stocks, pushing the $BTC (-0,7%) Bitcoin into the minus.
In China, the real estate crisis continues to worsen. The Evergrande Group has filed for creditor protection under US law. In total, the group is in debt to the tune of around 300 billion euros.
The summary inflation data for the euro zone give a small reason for hope. Overall, the inflation rate is falling slightly compared with the previous month. In July, the rate was still 5.3%, while in the previous month it was 5.5%. Core inflation (adjusted for energy and food prices) remained at 5.5%.
Further slump in building permits in Germany. Permits are 25% below the prior-year figure. In the first half of the year, 135,200 units were approved. In the previous year, the figure was 50,600 units higher.
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Monday: 03:15 Interest rate decision (China)
Tuesday: 16:00 Real estate sales figures (USA)
Wednesday: 9:30 Purchasing Managers Index (DE)
Thursday: 14:30 New orders (USA)
Friday: 01:30 Inflation data (Japan)
www.youtube.comDie WICHTIGSTEN Termine der kommenden Woche
44
1Anno·
In recent days it became quite quiet about the rumors of the acquisition of $1COV (+0,11%) .
In the meantime I am skeptical whether $ADNOCDIST meanwhile is willing to make a higher offer. Personally, however, I think that rather not.
Why?
Out of personal interest, I got into $BRKM5 (+0,52%) in December. It opened up a solid product portfolio in important niches for industrial production. Worth noting the large market shares in polypropylene, also bio-based, and ethylene crackers in Mexico. My entry price was 3.60€.
A few weeks later $ADNOCDIST with $APO (+0,31%) a takeover offer with a premium of 157% at the then price of 27.60 BRL.
In the meantime, however, this takeover is in the stars, as the two investor groups disagree on the financing.
For this reason, I took profits of about 50% this week and will nevertheless continue to monitor the situation, as it will definitely provide impetus for the Covestro takeover.
I reinvested the liquidated position in First Majestic $FR (+1,53%) , the German SmallCap Pferdewetten.de $EMH (+0%) (You wouldn't believe how popular horse racing is.) , and the problematic chemical giant Lanxess $LXS (+0,26%) whose portfolio is now worth more than its market capitalization. This does not even include the tangible assets of the industrial plants and the supply contracts with very well-known customers.
Even if the chemical industry is hard hit at the moment, it remains one of the mainstays of a modern civil society, along with the metal and electrical industries. If the apocalypse does not occur, we will be able to benefit from good earnings and therefore also good dividends in the long term.
1Anno·
Global chemical sell-off?
It was basically predictable that Western chemical producers would now be attractive to heavy "cash holders" in the wake of falling stock markets.
Insiders are predicting a takeover of $1COV (+0,11%) by $ADNOCDIST assume.
The oil company of the emirate Abu Dhabi already crossed my way on the stock exchange only some time ago.
My speculation at the time was that the takeover of $BRKM5 (+0,52%) . Later, the interest in Braskem was also proven by ADNOC.
A takeover with an offer to Covestro would have real chances from about 60€/share. Therefore, have fun to the gamblers. 👍
However, it remains to be seen how politics will behave. Here, one has clearly maneuvered oneself into a dead end.
But what would the economic consequences be in Germany?
Personally, I actually think that there is a certain tactic behind the decision to buy plastics producers.
With the takeovers of the two groups, a very large part of German plastics production would be under control and, thanks to the domestic group's cheaper oil and gas contracts, it would be able to exert a certain pricing power, which could certainly pose a threat to its competitors. In addition, further capital outflows would be shifted abroad. This is the next potential nail in the coffin for the Leverkusen site. A collective bargaining agreement for current employees would probably cease to apply in a similar way. However, this can only be assessed once a takeover has been negotiated at all, and of course depends on Covestro's integration into the ADNOC Group.
How realistic do you think a takeover of the German chemical giant is? Will further offers to German energy-intensive companies follow?
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