New Work

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/iHTX8_BcctA?si=KpuKic2vBBi9SY-R

Monday:

Burda Digital wants to acquire the majority $NWO in New Work SE. We are invested there with our value portfolio and will remain so for the time being. In our view, the offer is too low.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/new-work-burda-will-xing-betreiber-uebernehmen-und-von-der-boerse-nehmen/100042293.html

Consumer sentiment in the retail sector is improving significantly and has risen to a three-year high. According to the Bundesbank, there is also a chance that sentiment will recover faster than expected thanks to EM.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/ifo-umfrage-stimmung-im-einzelhandel-und-bei-verbrauchern-steigt-vor-fussball-em/100042226.html

Things are also improving in the mechanical engineering sector. Orders are up again for the first time in a year and a half. Compared to April 2023, orders increased by double digits. Orders from abroad were the main reason for the increase in orders. However, the report is not yet an all-clear, as things were particularly bad in April 2023, the year of comparison.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/industrie-maschinenbau-erzielt-erstes-auftragsplus-seit-anderthalb-jahren/100042267.html

Tuesday:

The number of unemployed people in Germany 🇩🇪sinkt fell only slightly to 5.8%. There is usually a seasonal decline in spring, but this year it was particularly low. In May, the unemployment rate fell by only 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Nevertheless, there are still many unfilled jobs in Germany. There were 702,000 vacancies in May.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/arbeitsmarkt-zahl-der-arbeitslosen-sinkt-nur-leicht-arbeitslosenquote-bei-58-prozent/100042529.html

Wednesday:

$BAYN (-0,7%) Bayer recovers significantly after a judge in the USA 🇺🇸 reduced a glyphosate fine from more than USD 2 billion to USD 400 million. Bayer still intends to appeal.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/glyphosat-prozess-bayer-zahlung-im-glyphosat-urteil-von-225-milliarden-auf-400-millionen-dollar-reduziert/100042812.html

The Bank of Canada 🇨🇦 announces the first interest rate cut in 4 years before the ECB. The key interest rate was lowered from 5% to 4.75%. This rate cut was expected by the market.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/bank-of-canada-verkuendet-erste-zinssenkung-312271/

Thursday:

The ECB also cuts its key interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25%. Deposit rates are now at 3.75% interest. For the ECB, this is the first cut in almost 5 years. This means that Switzerland, Sweden, Canada and the eurozone have already cut interest rates. The USA could follow suit in late summer.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/europaeische-zentralbank-ezb-senkt-zinsen-um-025-prozentpunkte/100042376.html

Friday:

In April, production in Germany surprisingly fell by 0.1%. The main reason for this is the poor situation in the construction industry. Compared to the same month last year, production fell by 3.9%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/industrie-deutsche-produktion-sinkt-im-april-ueberraschend-um-01-prozent/100043434.html

Key dates for the coming week:

Monday: 1:50 GDP figures (Japan)

Wednesday: 20:00 Interest rate decision (USA)

Friday: 05:00 Interest rate decision (Japan)

Restructuring New Work Se.

Fundamentally still a good company.

... and we are back again, true to the motto 'back and forth empties your pockets'.

No, we sold our position in New Work at the end of the year because the stock markets had generally risen and we wanted some cash.

Now we have seen the worst start to the year for 20 years and New Work has lost a lot of value, so we have picked up the company again as we are still convinced of its future prospects.

For us, the coming turnaround in interest rates speaks in favor of New Work, more investments are being made again and more people are being hired, which should benefit the company, which is operating profitably even now in the 'crisis'.

Yes, LinkedIn is tough competition, but New Work has repositioned Xing in good time and added another exciting platform to its portfolio in the form of Kununu.

Good divinde and undervalued at 47.1%.

First trade 2024

Good divinde and worth a purchase.

Quick number:

Due to the overall situation (high prices etc.), we say goodbye to our investment in New Work after just a few days and take a 10% profit.

The money will not be reinvested for the time being, we are simply increasing our cash position so that we have money for buying opportunities in the new year.

With the last transaction of this year, we would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a good start to the New Year.

We have established a position at New Work.

The company is majority-owned by Burda Media.

New Work is probably best known for XING, and kununu has also been acquired in recent years. As LinkedIn is now the benchmark for job networks, XING has been repositioned primarily as a job board. New Work is thus increasingly developing into a digital holding of various tools to solve the problem of the lack of skilled workers for companies.

In our view, this is a promising market for the future, although economic developments will of course also play a major role in the short to medium term. For this reason, the previous growth story has come to an end for the time being. In the long term, we believe that New Work should continue to grow profitably with this focus.

What is exciting for us is that New Work is already profitable, pays regular dividends and is very attractively valued in terms of both P/B and KCV.

As every Sunday, the most important news of the last week and the dates of the coming week.

The dates of the coming week as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/9slv_6lrsUE?si=wyuXHFEHzMM6VORY

Monday:

Real estate crisis in Germany 🇩🇪 and in China 🇨🇳, Country Garden falters in China. The next project developer after China Evergrande. In Germany, Development Partner, the Project Group and Euroboden are three project developers sliding into insolvency. The effects in China, however, would be more drastic. A large part of the global assets are in the Chinese real estate market, which is considered to be highly overvalued.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/immobilien/krise-am-bau-nach-drei-insolvenzen-in-einer-woche-angst-vor-pleitewelle-bei-projektentwicklern/29329886.html

$NWO Xing (New Work) earns less money. Sales stagnated, earnings were 24% below the previous year's level. The reasons are fewer paid memberships and higher personnel expenses.

$FOXT (+0%) Foxconn lowers forecast, Apple's contract manufacturer suffers from generally low demand for consumer electronics.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-deutlicher-ergebnisrueckgang-bei-xing-betreiber-new-work/24098412.html

The inflation rate in #indien 🇮🇳 is rising significantly. The reason for this is rising food prices. Inflation rises to 7.44% in July. The forecast was only 6.6%.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/retail-inflation-rate-in-india-iip-cpi-data-17527381.htm/amp

New offer from bidder Adnoc from Abu Dhabi for $1COV (+1,67%) Covestro, the price is now EUR 60. Management has so far resisted the takeover.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/covestro-bietet-adnoc-bald-60-euro-je-aktie-20337641.html

Zhongzhi Enterprise also facing problems - The Chinese asset manager cannot service part of its payment obligations. The renminbi falls to new lows. One yuan now costs only USD 0.14.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/versicherer/kapitalmaerkte-einer-der-groessten-privaten-vermoegensverwalter-chinas-geraet-in-probleme/29330636.html

Tuesday:

Chinese growth appears to be slowing right now. The central bank announces a surprise interest rate cut. Industrial production was only 3.7% above the previous year's level instead of the expected 4.4%. The interest rate cut further devalues the national currency, supports the economy and makes imports from China even more attractive.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-chinas-industrieproduktion-und-einzelhandelsumsaetze-wachsen-langsamer-als-erwartet/29331996.html

Possible downgrade of the creditworthiness of the major US banks. This step is currently being considered by the rating agency Fitch and is causing uncertainty on the markets.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/trends/ratingagentur-fitch-erwaegt-herabstufung-von-us-grossbanken/29333464.html?nlayer=Newsticker_1985586

Wednesday:

Hangover on the stock market - after the record highs in the DAX, prices are currently falling again. Among other things, the bad Chinese economic data, as well as the possible downgrade in U.S. banks, cloud the mood. In addition, it became known that Michael Burry once again shorts the market.

Matching the new expert recommendation from the Ministry of Economic Affairs, it is known that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is again making record profits. The fund grew by 130 billion euros to 1.3 trillion euros.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/fonds-etf/fonds-norwegischer-staatsfonds-schreibt-wieder-milliardengewinn/29334176.html

Significant drop in inflation in the UK, inflation fell to 6.8%, which was expected. However, core inflation was 10 basis points higher than expected at 6.9%.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/08/16/uk-headline-inflation-rate-drops-sharply-to-6point8percent-in-july-in-line-with-expectations.html

$700 (-1,51%) Tencent is growing again but missed market expectations. Although revenue rose by eleven percent and profit by 41 percent, analysts had expected more.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-videospieleanbieter-tencent-waechst-wieder-markterwartungen-verfehlt/24098412.html

The FED minutes show above all that the central bankers are at odds. As already communicated, the next interest rate decisions will probably be data-driven. There is much to be said for a pause in interest rates, but there could also be a further increase.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/fed-protokolle-us-notenbanker-uneins-ueber-weiteren-zinskurs/29335352.html

Thursday:

$CSCO (+0,36%) Cisco expects lower revenue growth, but was able to increase profits significantly.

The Swiss sanitary technology group $GEBN (-0,13%) Geberit is selling less due to the construction slump. The Group therefore expects a decline in sales for the full year.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-pc-flaute-macht-computerkonzern-lenovo-zu-schaffen/24098412.html

#china is trying to protect the renminbi from a further decline in value by selling dollars. With China struggling with a weaker currency due to the interest rate cut, dollar reserves are now being sold.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/chinas-major-state-banks-sell-dollars-yuan-london-ny-hours-sources-2023-08-17/

$ADYEN (-0,26%) is struggling with an unexpected operating profit slump. The payment service provider from the Netherlands has been known as the 'working' Wirecard competitor.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/zahlungsabwickler-gewinneinbruch-bei-adyen-kurssturz-vernichtet-zwoelf-milliarden-an-boersenwert/29337408.html

According to Europace, real estate prices continue to fall in July. Condominiums lost on average 0.79% in value compared to the previous month, new construction houses by 0.23% and existing houses by 0.45%.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/immobilien/hauspreisindex-immobilienpreise-sinken-im-juli-weiter/29337230.html

Friday:

Space X sells crypto stocks, pushing the $BTC (+0,67%) Bitcoin into the minus.

https://www.businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/finanzen/bitcoin-kurs-gefallen-weil-spacex-seine-bestaende-verkauft-hat/

In China, the real estate crisis continues to worsen. The Evergrande Group has filed for creditor protection under US law. In total, the group is in debt to the tune of around 300 billion euros.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/immobilien/immobilien-china-evergrande-stellt-antrag-auf-glaeubigerschutz-in-den-usa/29338668.html

The summary inflation data for the euro zone give a small reason for hope. Overall, the inflation rate is falling slightly compared with the previous month. In July, the rate was still 5.3%, while in the previous month it was 5.5%. Core inflation (adjusted for energy and food prices) remained at 5.5%.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/inflation-preisschub-im-euro-raum-ebbt-im-juli-nur-leicht-ab/29339664.html

Further slump in building permits in Germany. Permits are 25% below the prior-year figure. In the first half of the year, 135,200 units were approved. In the previous year, the figure was 50,600 units higher.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/immobilien/immobilien-baugenehmigungen-in-deutschland-brechen-im-ersten-halbjahr-ein-/29339098.html

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Monday: 03:15 Interest rate decision (China)

Tuesday: 16:00 Real estate sales figures (USA)

Wednesday: 9:30 Purchasing Managers Index (DE)

Thursday: 14:30 New orders (USA)

Friday: 01:30 Inflation data (Japan)

For next month just added pair of shares to the savings plan.

New are now:

$C (+0,5%)

$TA (+0,15%)

$DGE (-0,96%)

$BLK

$V (+0,86%)

$O (+0,41%)

$JNJ (+0,35%)

$GOOD (+0,06%)

$RTLL (-0,85%)

$NWO

$BAS (-0,35%)