According to $JPM (+0,35%) the neuen Zölle
$GM (+0,56%) could cost up to 14 billion US dollars, which would eat up almost the entire forecast global EBIT of 12.5-14.5 billion US dollars for 2025. For $F (+0,11%) is expected to have an impact of around USD 6 billion, which corresponds to approximately 75% of the estimated global EBIT of USD 7.75 billion for 2025.

$GM (+0,56%) imports around USD 56 billion worth of vehicles annually from Mexico and Canada, resulting in estimated tariffs of around USD 10 billion on finished vehicles and an additional USD 4 billion on parts, totaling USD 14 billion.

The tariffs could increase vehicle prices by $3k to $12k, potentially reducing US sales by 500k units.

$JPM (+0,35%) has lowered the price target for $GM (+0,56%) from 64 US dollars to 53 US dollars and for $F (+0,11%) from 13 US dollars to 11 US dollars

$BARC (+0,67%) warns that the tariffs could make car manufacturers "structurally unprofitable" if they remain unchanged.

Walt Disney surprises positively thanks to streaming business + Siemens Healthineers increases profit + Trump's tariffs could cost US industry billions

Walt Disney $DIS (+0,35%)surprises positively thanks to 'Moana 2' and streaming business

• Thanks to a strong streaming business and the success of the animated film "Moana 2", the US media company Walt Disney has exceeded market expectations at the start of its new financial year.
• Sales and profits were higher than expected, according to the figures presented by Disney in Burbank on Wednesday.
• In other business areas, however, including the TV business and the operation of the theme parks, things were less rosy.
• The stock market also criticized the fact that the forecast was not raised.
• The share price fell in pre-market US trading. In the first quarter to the end of December, Disney's turnover rose by 5 percent to 24.7 billion US dollars (23.9 billion euros) compared to the same period in the previous year.
• Adjusted operating profit rose by almost a third to 5.1 billion dollars.
• The profit attributable to shareholders climbed even more strongly to just under 2.6 billion dollars.
• The quarter was a strong start to the financial year, said Disney CEO Bob Iger according to the press release.
• He remains confident about the growth strategy.

Siemens Healthineers $SHL (+2,68%)American demand and restructuring

• The medical technology group Siemens Healthineers has made a surprisingly good start to the new fiscal year.
• In the three months to the end of December, total sales climbed by almost six percent to just under 5.5 billion euros, as the Siemens subsidiary announced in Erlangen on Thursday.
• Excluding currency and portfolio effects, the increase amounted to 5.7 percent.
• Business in the Americas and in the Asia, Pacific, Japan region grew in particular.
• In China, however, revenue fell by a mid-single-digit percentage due to the ongoing delays in the awarding of orders.
• Adjusted for special effects, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased by eleven percent to 822 million euros, mainly due to cost savings in connection with restructuring in the Diagnostics division.
• Sales and operating profit thus exceeded analysts' expectations.
• The bottom line for Siemens Healthineers shareholders was a profit of 474 million euros after 431 million in the previous year.
• Group CEO Bernd Montag maintained the targets for the fiscal year.

Trump's tariffs could cost the US industry billions

• Ford$F (+0,11%) -Ford CEO Jim Farley has warned the White House that long-term punitive tariffs of 25 percent on deliveries from Mexico and Canada would hit the US car industry hard.
• This would cost American manufacturers billions of dollars in profits and have serious consequences for jobs in the USA, Farley said after presenting quarterly figures.
• US car giants such as Ford and General Motors $GM (+0,56%)had expanded production in neighboring countries in recent years.
• US President Donald Trump recently imposed additional tariffs of 25 percent on goods from Mexico and Canada - but then quickly postponed them for 30 days.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Ascencio SCA EUR 4.30

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 12:30 Honeywell quarterly figures
• 13:00 Philip Morris | Conocophillips Quarterly figures
• 22:00 Expedia Group quarterly figures
• 22:05 Amazon | Verisign quarterly figures
• No time specified: Yum! Brands | Hershey | Air Products and Chemicals | Eli Lilly | Bristol Myers Squibb | Intercontinental Exchange | KKR & Co | Sonos | Warner Music quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 06:30 Societe Generale annual results
• 07:00 Aurubis | Siemens Healthineers | Rational | Arcelormittal | ING Groep | Volvo Car Annual results
• 07:30 Hannover Re Renewals 2025 | Siemens Healthineers PK
• 08:00 Astrazeneca | A.P. Moeller-Maersk Annual Results
• 08:30 Siemens Healthineers Analyst Conference
• 09:00 Hannover Re PK
• 10:00 Qiagen annual results press conference
• 12:00 Linde quarterly figures
• 15:00 Kion Pre-Close-Call | Linde PK
• 16:00 Qiagen Analyst Conference
• 17:45 Vinci annual results
• 18:00 LOreal annual results

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: New orders December seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +2.0% yoy previous: -5.4% yoy
• 11:00 EU: December Eurozone Retail Sales PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy
• 13:00 UK: BoE, outcome and minutes of the Monetary Policy Council meeting and Monetary Policy Report Bank Rate FORECAST: 4.50% previously: 4.75%
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 214,000 previously: 207,000
• 14:30 US: Productivity ex Agriculture (1st release) 4Q annualized PROGNOSE: +1.4% yoy Q3: +2.2% yoy Unit labor costs PROGNOSE: +3.3% yoy Q3: +0.8% yoy
• 20:30 US: Fed Governor Waller, speech at the Atlantic Council at 'Navigating the Future of Payments' event

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

__________

In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (+0,28%) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (-0,63%) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-0,54%) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA (+0,1%) are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (-1,12%) D.R. Horton $DHI (-0,37%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-0,28%) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (-0,82%) Boeing $BA (+0,86%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (+1,46%) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%) , Ford $F (+0,11%) and General Motors $GM (+0,56%) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (+1,02%) , U.S. Steel $X (+2,25%) and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (-1,06%) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (+1,2%) Moderna $MRNA (+0,63%) and Eli Lilly $LLY (+2,83%) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (+0,12%) , Chevron$CVX (-0,13%) and Expand Energy $CHK (+0,28%) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (-0,92%) and Texas Instruments$TXN (+1,12%) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (+0,28%) NVIDIA $NVDA (+4,72%) , AMD $AMD (+2,72%) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%) , Ford $F (+0,11%) , General Motors $GM (+0,56%) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (+0,86%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-0,28%) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-0,63%) , Target $TGT (+1,34%) and Nike $NKE (-0,18%) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (+0,17%) Duke Energy $DUK (+0,4%) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (-1,3%) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-0,01%) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (-0,92%) , Eli Lilly $LLY (+2,83%) , Nucor $NUE (+1,02%) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

__________

Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

The next electric pickup from General Motors
$GM (+0,56%) could be a Hyundai
$HYUD
$005380 or vice versa ?!?

GM and Hyundai are working together on the introduction of an electric pickup.

GM and Hyundai signed a letter of intent in September to collaborate on the development and production of new vehicles.

According to GM CEO Mary Barra, the partnership is intended to "leverage the scale and creativity of both companies".

GM and Hyundai want to "improve their competitiveness in key markets and vehicle segments". They will use their competitive advantages to reduce costs and introduce advanced new technologies.

According to a new report by Korean media outlet Pulse, Barra met with Hyundai Chairman Euisun Chung earlier this month to discuss the partnership. According to the report, Hyundai and GM plan to collaborate on the development of a new electric pickup truck.

Interestingly, the two leading OEMs are considering "badge engineering," in which Hyundai would sell GM-produced vehicles with its branding, or vice versa.

The partnership is significant given the scale of the two auto giants. GM's Chevy Silverado was the second best-selling vehicle brand in the U.S. last year behind Ford's F-Series. The Ram pickup came in third place.

Hyundai and GM want a bigger piece of the pie, as pickups are the best-selling brands. By joining forces and complementing each other's strengths, they could reduce their costs and undercut the competition. This could also include using each other's distribution networks.

Earnings next week 🗓️

$SAP (+2,08%)

$NUE (+1,02%)

$VZ (-1,97%)

$GM (+0,56%)

$MMM (-0,72%)

$RTX (+2,82%)

$GE (+0,58%)

$ENPH (+2,87%)

$TXN (+1,12%)

$VRT (+4,02%)

$BA (+0,86%)

$T (-2,44%)

$KO (-0,72%)

$NEE (+0,17%)

$GEV (+2,67%)

$TMO (-0,07%)

$TSLA (+10,24%)

$LRCX (+1,05%)

$IBM (+1,55%)

$NOW (+1,12%)

$TMUS (-5,99%)

$AAL (+2,14%)

$UPS (-0,57%)

$LUV (+0,26%)

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/VguA1e0JIig?si=OBfgag88jXTJk-XL

Monday:

45 projects in China 🇨🇳 that sold CO2 certificates are suspected of fraud. All projects are to be reversed.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/klimawandel-umweltbundesamt-will-45-projekte-in-china-stoppen/100069857.h

$INTC (-0,92%) Intel stops the construction of the factory in Magdeburg for the time being. This not only shows how wrong a subsidy policy is in which the state simply gives away tax money to individual companies. It also shows that the framework conditions for investments are generally poor. Intel is not even building a plant, even though they would receive 10 billion euros for it.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/intel-verschiebt-bau-von-chipfabrik-in-magdeburg-a-5cf8a645-6b57-47a7-a8fe-c315a175d521

Tuesday:

The ZEW economic expectations have deteriorated more than expected. "The ZEW survey speaks for a crash, crisis and powerlessness. Above all, the miserable assessment of the situation points to another lost quarter on the growth side," said Alexander Krüger, Chief Economist at Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/der_boersen_tag/ZEW-Befragung-spricht-fuer-Absturz-Krise-und-Ohnmacht-article25232850.html

Wednesday:

We read a lot about China 🇨🇳 and how widespread electric cars are there. North America 🇺🇸🇨🇦 is less in the spotlight. There is hardly any demand for electric cars there and, above all, demand is already stagnating. The plans of $F (+0,11%) Ford and $GM (+0,56%) äGM to go all-electric have long since been canceled. Even in China, consumers are not always free to make the decision to switch to an electric car. In certain cities, for example, it is simply not possible to register a new combustion engine. Manufacturers such as Mercedes have also long since realized that although electric cars are desired by the state, consumer demand is not so great. Once again, the planned economy is not working. This makes other instruments such as a global CO2 price all the more important.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/elektroautos-absatz-zahlen-enttaeuschen-us-hersteller-sagen-neue-modelle-ab/100062173.html

Germans distrust the financial sector. Out of 28 industries surveyed, the sector came in 24th place, which is no great surprise to us. There are few sectors where conflicts of interest can have such a blatantly negative impact on future life. Many Germans have had bad experiences with financial service providers. That is why it is so important to strengthen consumer education and, above all, financial knowledge. That way, if in doubt, you can do it yourself and distinguish between bad and good advice.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/vertrauensranking-platz-24-von-28-die-deutschen-misstrauen-der-finanzbranche/100067929.html

The Fed cuts the key interest rate by 50 basis points!

This means that the key interest rate in the USA 🇺🇸 is now in the range between 4.75 % and 5.0 %.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/federal-reserve-us-notenbank-senkt-zinsen-ueberraschend-stark-um-einen-halben-prozentpunkt/100070709.html

Thursday:

In August, 18.3% fewer cars were registered in Europe than in the previous year. The main reason for this is a slump in sales of electric cars. Demand for electric cars fell by 44%. This slump was particularly severe in Germany, where sales fell by 70%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/mobilitaet-autoabsatz-in-europa-bricht-um-fast-ein-fuenftel-ein/100070917.html

The BoE is taking a break from cutting interest rates for the time being and is leaving the prime rate at 5.0%. Inflation has not yet fallen sustainably enough.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-bank-of-england-belaesst-leitzinsen-bei-fuenf-prozent/100069355.html

After $BMW (+1,77%) BMW, Mercedes also cuts $MERC (+0,5%) Mercedes is also cutting its profit targets. Instead of 11 %, the return is to be 7.5 - 8.5 %. This means that Mercedes is also clearly missing its own strategy. A luxury provider with a single-digit margin is rather rare. The main reason for this is probably the development in China 🇨🇳, as well as lower sales of the S-Class.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autobauer-mercedes-kappt-gewinnziele-china-und-nebuloese-bewertungseffekte-belasten/100071118.html

Friday:

Big insider buy by Daniel Grieder at $BOSS (-0,07%) HUGO BOSS. The CEO buys shares for just under 400,000 euros. The company recently attracted attention with its cooperation with VFB Stuttgart.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18513651-eqs-dd-hugo-boss-ag-daniel-heinrich-grieder-kauf/2

While the other central banks are cutting interest rates, the Bank of Japan 🇯🇵 is raising its key interest rates. Today, however, it is pausing the increases for the time being, but is holding out the prospect of further interest rate hikes.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-gegen-den-trend-bank-von-japan-setzt-weiter-auf-zinserhoehungen/100070196.html

$QCOM (+1,46%) Qualcomm probably wants to $INTC (-0,92%) take over Intel. If the takeover goes ahead, it would be the largest ever in the technology sector. Intel is still valued at 90 billion euros.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/chiphersteller-qualcomm-spricht-offenbar-mit-intel-ueber-uebernahme/100071470.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 10:00 ifo Business Climate Index (DE)

Thursday: 15:20 Fed-Powell speech (USA)

Friday: 11:00 EU economic data (EU)

What other important dates can you think of?

Hyundai $HYUD
and General Motors $GM (+0,56%)
plan alliance

Hyundai and General Motors have signed a letter of intent to explore a cooperation.

Together, the Korean and US car manufacturers intend to explore cooperation in key strategic areas in order to reduce costs and accelerate the development of new vehicles. The cooperation is to extend to "the joint development and production of passenger and commercial vehicles, combustion engines and clean energy, electric and hydrogen technologies". The joint procurement of raw materials is also to be part of the partnership. The framework agreement was signed by Euisun Chung, Chairman of the Board of the Hyundai Motor Group, and GM CEO Mary Barra

$GM (+0,56%) lays off more than 1,000 employees in the software and services divisions