According to $JPM (-7,37%) the neuen Zölle
$GM (-2,84%) could cost up to 14 billion US dollars, which would eat up almost the entire forecast global EBIT of 12.5-14.5 billion US dollars for 2025. For $F (+1,16%) is expected to have an impact of around USD 6 billion, which corresponds to approximately 75% of the estimated global EBIT of USD 7.75 billion for 2025.

$GM (-2,84%) imports around USD 56 billion worth of vehicles annually from Mexico and Canada, resulting in estimated tariffs of around USD 10 billion on finished vehicles and an additional USD 4 billion on parts, totaling USD 14 billion.

The tariffs could increase vehicle prices by $3k to $12k, potentially reducing US sales by 500k units.

$JPM (-7,37%) has lowered the price target for $GM (-2,84%) from 64 US dollars to 53 US dollars and for $F (+1,16%) from 13 US dollars to 11 US dollars

$BARC (-8,18%) warns that the tariffs could make car manufacturers "structurally unprofitable" if they remain unchanged.

Walt Disney surprises positively thanks to streaming business + Siemens Healthineers increases profit + Trump's tariffs could cost US industry billions

Walt Disney $DIS (-6,12%)surprises positively thanks to 'Moana 2' and streaming business

• Thanks to a strong streaming business and the success of the animated film "Moana 2", the US media company Walt Disney has exceeded market expectations at the start of its new financial year.
• Sales and profits were higher than expected, according to the figures presented by Disney in Burbank on Wednesday.
• In other business areas, however, including the TV business and the operation of the theme parks, things were less rosy.
• The stock market also criticized the fact that the forecast was not raised.
• The share price fell in pre-market US trading. In the first quarter to the end of December, Disney's turnover rose by 5 percent to 24.7 billion US dollars (23.9 billion euros) compared to the same period in the previous year.
• Adjusted operating profit rose by almost a third to 5.1 billion dollars.
• The profit attributable to shareholders climbed even more strongly to just under 2.6 billion dollars.
• The quarter was a strong start to the financial year, said Disney CEO Bob Iger according to the press release.
• He remains confident about the growth strategy.

Siemens Healthineers $SHL (-5,55%)American demand and restructuring

• The medical technology group Siemens Healthineers has made a surprisingly good start to the new fiscal year.
• In the three months to the end of December, total sales climbed by almost six percent to just under 5.5 billion euros, as the Siemens subsidiary announced in Erlangen on Thursday.
• Excluding currency and portfolio effects, the increase amounted to 5.7 percent.
• Business in the Americas and in the Asia, Pacific, Japan region grew in particular.
• In China, however, revenue fell by a mid-single-digit percentage due to the ongoing delays in the awarding of orders.
• Adjusted for special effects, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased by eleven percent to 822 million euros, mainly due to cost savings in connection with restructuring in the Diagnostics division.
• Sales and operating profit thus exceeded analysts' expectations.
• The bottom line for Siemens Healthineers shareholders was a profit of 474 million euros after 431 million in the previous year.
• Group CEO Bernd Montag maintained the targets for the fiscal year.

Trump's tariffs could cost the US industry billions

• Ford$F (+1,16%) -Ford CEO Jim Farley has warned the White House that long-term punitive tariffs of 25 percent on deliveries from Mexico and Canada would hit the US car industry hard.
• This would cost American manufacturers billions of dollars in profits and have serious consequences for jobs in the USA, Farley said after presenting quarterly figures.
• US car giants such as Ford and General Motors $GM (-2,84%)had expanded production in neighboring countries in recent years.
• US President Donald Trump recently imposed additional tariffs of 25 percent on goods from Mexico and Canada - but then quickly postponed them for 30 days.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Ascencio SCA EUR 4.30

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 12:30 Honeywell quarterly figures
• 13:00 Philip Morris | Conocophillips Quarterly figures
• 22:00 Expedia Group quarterly figures
• 22:05 Amazon | Verisign quarterly figures
• No time specified: Yum! Brands | Hershey | Air Products and Chemicals | Eli Lilly | Bristol Myers Squibb | Intercontinental Exchange | KKR & Co | Sonos | Warner Music quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 06:30 Societe Generale annual results
• 07:00 Aurubis | Siemens Healthineers | Rational | Arcelormittal | ING Groep | Volvo Car Annual results
• 07:30 Hannover Re Renewals 2025 | Siemens Healthineers PK
• 08:00 Astrazeneca | A.P. Moeller-Maersk Annual Results
• 08:30 Siemens Healthineers Analyst Conference
• 09:00 Hannover Re PK
• 10:00 Qiagen annual results press conference
• 12:00 Linde quarterly figures
• 15:00 Kion Pre-Close-Call | Linde PK
• 16:00 Qiagen Analyst Conference
• 17:45 Vinci annual results
• 18:00 LOreal annual results

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: New orders December seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +2.0% yoy previous: -5.4% yoy
• 11:00 EU: December Eurozone Retail Sales PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy
• 13:00 UK: BoE, outcome and minutes of the Monetary Policy Council meeting and Monetary Policy Report Bank Rate FORECAST: 4.50% previously: 4.75%
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 214,000 previously: 207,000
• 14:30 US: Productivity ex Agriculture (1st release) 4Q annualized PROGNOSE: +1.4% yoy Q3: +2.2% yoy Unit labor costs PROGNOSE: +3.3% yoy Q3: +0.8% yoy
• 20:30 US: Fed Governor Waller, speech at the Atlantic Council at 'Navigating the Future of Payments' event

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

__________

In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The next electric pickup from General Motors
$GM (-2,84%) could be a Hyundai
$HYUD
$005380 or vice versa ?!?

Earnings next week 🗓️

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/VguA1e0JIig?si=OBfgag88jXTJk-XL

Monday:

45 projects in China 🇨🇳 that sold CO2 certificates are suspected of fraud. All projects are to be reversed.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/klimawandel-umweltbundesamt-will-45-projekte-in-china-stoppen/100069857.h

$INTC (-10,9%) Intel stops the construction of the factory in Magdeburg for the time being. This not only shows how wrong a subsidy policy is in which the state simply gives away tax money to individual companies. It also shows that the framework conditions for investments are generally poor. Intel is not even building a plant, even though they would receive 10 billion euros for it.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/intel-verschiebt-bau-von-chipfabrik-in-magdeburg-a-5cf8a645-6b57-47a7-a8fe-c315a175d521

Tuesday:

The ZEW economic expectations have deteriorated more than expected. "The ZEW survey speaks for a crash, crisis and powerlessness. Above all, the miserable assessment of the situation points to another lost quarter on the growth side," said Alexander Krüger, Chief Economist at Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/der_boersen_tag/ZEW-Befragung-spricht-fuer-Absturz-Krise-und-Ohnmacht-article25232850.html

Wednesday:

We read a lot about China 🇨🇳 and how widespread electric cars are there. North America 🇺🇸🇨🇦 is less in the spotlight. There is hardly any demand for electric cars there and, above all, demand is already stagnating. The plans of $F (+1,16%) Ford and $GM (-2,84%) äGM to go all-electric have long since been canceled. Even in China, consumers are not always free to make the decision to switch to an electric car. In certain cities, for example, it is simply not possible to register a new combustion engine. Manufacturers such as Mercedes have also long since realized that although electric cars are desired by the state, consumer demand is not so great. Once again, the planned economy is not working. This makes other instruments such as a global CO2 price all the more important.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/elektroautos-absatz-zahlen-enttaeuschen-us-hersteller-sagen-neue-modelle-ab/100062173.html

Germans distrust the financial sector. Out of 28 industries surveyed, the sector came in 24th place, which is no great surprise to us. There are few sectors where conflicts of interest can have such a blatantly negative impact on future life. Many Germans have had bad experiences with financial service providers. That is why it is so important to strengthen consumer education and, above all, financial knowledge. That way, if in doubt, you can do it yourself and distinguish between bad and good advice.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/vertrauensranking-platz-24-von-28-die-deutschen-misstrauen-der-finanzbranche/100067929.html

The Fed cuts the key interest rate by 50 basis points!

This means that the key interest rate in the USA 🇺🇸 is now in the range between 4.75 % and 5.0 %.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/federal-reserve-us-notenbank-senkt-zinsen-ueberraschend-stark-um-einen-halben-prozentpunkt/100070709.html

Thursday:

In August, 18.3% fewer cars were registered in Europe than in the previous year. The main reason for this is a slump in sales of electric cars. Demand for electric cars fell by 44%. This slump was particularly severe in Germany, where sales fell by 70%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/mobilitaet-autoabsatz-in-europa-bricht-um-fast-ein-fuenftel-ein/100070917.html

The BoE is taking a break from cutting interest rates for the time being and is leaving the prime rate at 5.0%. Inflation has not yet fallen sustainably enough.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-bank-of-england-belaesst-leitzinsen-bei-fuenf-prozent/100069355.html

After $BMW (-5,51%) BMW, Mercedes also cuts $MERC (-3,56%) Mercedes is also cutting its profit targets. Instead of 11 %, the return is to be 7.5 - 8.5 %. This means that Mercedes is also clearly missing its own strategy. A luxury provider with a single-digit margin is rather rare. The main reason for this is probably the development in China 🇨🇳, as well as lower sales of the S-Class.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autobauer-mercedes-kappt-gewinnziele-china-und-nebuloese-bewertungseffekte-belasten/100071118.html

Friday:

Big insider buy by Daniel Grieder at $BOSS (-2,48%) HUGO BOSS. The CEO buys shares for just under 400,000 euros. The company recently attracted attention with its cooperation with VFB Stuttgart.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18513651-eqs-dd-hugo-boss-ag-daniel-heinrich-grieder-kauf/2

While the other central banks are cutting interest rates, the Bank of Japan 🇯🇵 is raising its key interest rates. Today, however, it is pausing the increases for the time being, but is holding out the prospect of further interest rate hikes.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-gegen-den-trend-bank-von-japan-setzt-weiter-auf-zinserhoehungen/100070196.html

$QCOM (-7,67%) Qualcomm probably wants to $INTC (-10,9%) take over Intel. If the takeover goes ahead, it would be the largest ever in the technology sector. Intel is still valued at 90 billion euros.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/chiphersteller-qualcomm-spricht-offenbar-mit-intel-ueber-uebernahme/100071470.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 10:00 ifo Business Climate Index (DE)

Thursday: 15:20 Fed-Powell speech (USA)

Friday: 11:00 EU economic data (EU)

What other important dates can you think of?

Hyundai $HYUD
and General Motors $GM (-2,84%)
plan alliance

$GM (-2,84%) lays off more than 1,000 employees in the software and services divisions