Yesterday I talked about Brookfield and why its exposure to private credit is widely misunderstood. Today it’s about the second company I bought during this selloff, and honestly, this one makes even less sense to me: BlackRock.
BlackRock also dropped roughly 20% from its highs along with the rest of the asset management space. But unlike many others, this isn’t even a case of “misunderstood exposure”. It’s more like no real exposure at all.
BlackRock is not a lender. It’s an allocator.
That distinction is crucial. The whole private credit panic is about potentially risky loans sitting on balance sheets, especially tied to software companies that might struggle to repay. BlackRock doesn’t operate like that. They manage capital on behalf of clients. Through ETFs, index funds and active strategies, they allocate money across markets, but they don’t carry the same direct credit risk.
So when the market sells BlackRock off because of a “private credit crisis”, it feels like a category error.
What you’re actually buying with BlackRock is the central infrastructure of global capital markets. With around $14 trillion in assets under management, they sit at the heart of money flows. Whether capital moves into equities, bonds or alternatives, BlackRock is usually involved in one way or another.
And the fundamentals reflect that strength. Revenue is projected to grow in the mid-teens annually through 2028. Free cash flow, which saw a dip in 2025, is expected to more than quadruple by 2028. At the same time, margins remain very healthy, with FCF margins around 31% projected for 2026.
Now look at the valuation. The stock trades at roughly 18x forward earnings and around 14x based on FY28 estimates. Historically, BlackRock has commanded multiples in the mid-20s. For a business of this quality, scale and consistency, that gap stands out.
So just like with Brookfield, I think the market painted everything with the same brush. Private credit fears hit the entire sector, regardless of whether the underlying business model actually justified it.
In BlackRock’s case, I don’t think it does at all.
That’s exactly the kind of setup I’m looking for. A high-quality business, strong long-term growth, and a selloff driven more by sentiment than by fundamentals.
