Have a wonderful Sunday everyone!

🔔 BREAKING: The biggest de-escalation in the US-China trade conflict in years is imminent.

Under the new agreement between Donald Trump-USA and China, the following measures apply:

🇨🇳 China's measures:

1.Suspension of new export controls on rare earths

2. issuance of general export licenses for rare earths

3. "Significant measures" to curb fentanyl trade to the USA

4. suspension of all retaliatory tariffs imposed since March 4

5. suspension of all non-tariff countermeasures since March 4

6. purchase of at least 12 million tons of US soybeans

🇺🇸 Measures taken by the USA:

1.Reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods by 10 percentage points

2. extension of certain exemptions under Section 301 until November 2026

In addition:

-China will suspend all retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4 and repeal or suspend all non-tariff countermeasures imposed since then.

-China has also committed to easing export restrictions on certain automotive chips - a clear signal of a possible "thaw" in technology trade relations.

-Analysts are talking about the biggest de-escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China for years - a move that has received far too little attention so far.

Are we in for a Moonvember let us know in the comments!

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https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/

President Trump announced an economic and trade agreement between the USA and China:

- China suspends all retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff measures imposed since March 4

- China issues new general licenses for the export of rare earths and suspends new export controls.

- China pledges to stop the flow of fentanyl to the US

- China will buy at least 12 million tons of US soybeans

- The USA reduces tariffs on Chinese goods by 10 percentage points

The biggest de-escalation in relations between the US and China since the start of the trade war.

China 🇨🇳 will suspend all retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff measures in place since March 4, lift export controls on rare earths, issue global licenses for rare earths and critical minerals such as gallium and graphite, and commit to buying 12 million tons of US soybeans this year and 25 million tons annually through 2028. China will also take "significant measures" to stop fentanyl shipments to the US.

In return, the U.S. 🇺🇸 will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports imposed to curb fentanyl trade by 10 percentage points of the cumulative tariff rate, effective November 10, 2025, extend Section 301 tariff exemptions through November 2026, and suspend new export control measures for one year.

📈 The $SPY (+0,28 %) or auc $CSPX (+0,34 %) has risen for 6 months in a row. What happens statistically after that?

Historical data since 1957 show:

➡️ +9.6 % on average one year later

➡️ 81 % of cases positive

➡️ Only rare correction phases

The markets are running - but for how much longer?

We analyze exactly such cycles live every day at Grey Capital - with data, timing & setups before they become mainstream.

Join Grey Capital and learn how to read market cycles before they tip🤓

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President Trump shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

"He is a VERY tough negotiator. That's not good!" 🤣

"Nice to see you again!"

"We're going to have a very successful meeting!"

"We have ALWAYS had a great relationship."

Chinese President Xi Jinping says he is happy to finally meet President Trump.

"It's very nice to see you again! It's been many years. Since your re-election, we have spoken on the phone three times, exchanged several letters and stayed in close contact."

"Given our different national circumstances, we don't always see eye to eye. It's normal for there to be friction between the world's two leading economies."

"In the face of winds, waves and challenges, you and I, who are at the helm of Sino-US relations, should stay the right course and ensure the steady progress of these relations."

Chinese President Xi Jinping declares President Trump the PEACE PRESIDENT of the whole world!

"Mr. President, you care deeply about world peace! You are deeply committed to resolving regional conflicts. I greatly appreciate your significant contribution to the ceasefire in Gaza."

"During your visit to Malaysia, you witnessed the signing of the joint peace declaration along the Cambodian-Thai border, to which you also contributed."

Rare earths, medicines and chips ... just to name 3 key areas. But most people in the forums are of the opinion that China is at least as dependent on us as we are on them... The example of Nexperia shows once again how far off the mark this is.

👉🏻 What happened?

The Dutch government has granted the Chinese owner Wingtech from controlling Nexperia last week

- officially due to security concerns and at the urging of the USA. The deposed Chinese CEO Zhang Xuezheng instructed employees in China to ignore orders from Europe while the Chinese government imposed export restrictions on Nexperia chips produced in China.

👉🏻 The potential consequences...dramatic

An acute chip shortage of so-called "chicken feed chips" in Germany and Europe. The chips produced by Nexperia are not highly complex and mass-produced, but Nexperia dominates this market virtually alone with a market share of just under 50%.

This is a huge problem for the automotive industry. Depending on the model, hundreds of these chips are installed in each car. But you can even find them in coffee machines etc. In other words, virtually everywhere that can be "controlled" in some way. So the problem is not just limited to the automotive industry, even if this is where it first appears.

Volkswagen has already announced short-time working for next week. The profitable models are now being prioritized, so the VW plants will be shut down first, but if a solution is not found soon, potentially Audi and Porsche as well. Mercedes, BMW and Bosch are also already warning of massive disruptions and once the supply chain is interrupted, it can take weeks or months to get it running smoothly again. The rat tail is simply enormous.

The production shock could be even greater than in corona times if no solution is found. This in turn could put thousands of jobs at risk. But it's interesting to see once again how little is being reported about this in the media (compared to the size of the problem - where is the chancellor?).

👉🏻 The solution - difficult...

Europe has no real leverage in my opinion and is caught between geopolitical tensions between the US and China. Do you piss off the US and release the company or do you stay the course and risk massive dislocation? Let's see...

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Hello everyone, the last few days have once again been about the old topic.

It was about an investment horizon of 20 years and more.

And as I can often see here again and again. A lot of young people here also start with a rather conservative dividend strategy.

Every time I ask myself the question "Does that make sense? ".

To symbolize the strategies in history a little, I have compared three ETFs over an investment horizon of 10 years.

Performance 10 years

$TDIV (+0,23 %) 58.50 % (dividend strategy)

$CSPX (+0,34 %) 139.26 % ( Conservative)

$XAIX (+2,05 %) 201.61 % (Growth Strategy)

Chart from love @TomTurboInvest since 2019 (@TechNav ) (@Dividendenopi )

$TDIV (+0,23 %) 122,01 %

$CSPX (+0,34 %) 160,03 %

$XAIX (+2,05 %) 228,53 %

With a big thank you to @TomTurboInvest 😘

I was amazed at how quickly the Growth ETF recovered after the bear market in 2020. And also from the 🍊 mini crash in April. But of course, this volatility is not for everyone.

Here is an interesting article from

from Gerd Kommer and Alexander Weis

I have only included the conclusion here.

( @All-in-or-nothing It is also mentioned here that the dividend payout is almost always at the expense of performance. And is therefore not really a gift. It also mentions that a dividend strategy has not been more successful over 20 years or more).

Conclusion

Historically, dividend investing has tended to produce poorer returns than comparable investing without a dividend focus. Dividend stocks also offer a significant advantage in terms of risk.

Science and logic see more disadvantages than advantages in dividend-oriented investing.

However, the lack of systematic benefits of dividend investing will not prevent the financial industry, the financial media and an army of financiers from continuing to encourage private investors in the false belief that dividend investing has real, objective, lasting benefits in order to sell expensive products or increase circulation and click-through rates.

If you want to understand the facts in detail in the scientific literature, we recommend the study by Hartzmark/Solomon (2019).

Full article ⬇️

https://gerd-kommer.de/blog/dividendenstrategien-fakten-und-fantasien/

My dears let's go into dialog, I'm looking forward to it.

@Epi
@Iwamoto
@Max095
@Dividendenopi and everyone else.

My dear friend @TomTurboInvest can you perhaps make us another chart over a longer horizon?

You are the professional with the best tools

How often have I heard in the past that gold is only an investment for "prophets of doom" and generally rather "stupid" as it pays no dividends. And in fact, if you look at the average investor, hardly anyone is invested in gold. Neither indirectly via mining shares nor directly. An exception might be a couple of gold coins sitting in a safe deposit box somewhere, but understandably not traded.

👉🏻 But does the performance of the last quarter of a century justify this reputation?

A very clear no! ... A look at the absolute gold price performance since 2000:

Gold: approx. +980%

S&P 500: approx. +262%

If you now take dividends into account (see also screenshot), the difference is no longer quite as significant, but is still clear:

Gold: approx. +980%

S&P 500: approx. +600%

Wnyone who was not invested (in whatever form) has missed out! 📈

👉🏻 So the question is what happens next?

I dare to take a look into my cloudy crystal ball 🔮... I remain optimistic about gold for 3 reasons:

1️⃣ increasingly loose monetary policy worldwide - constant and accelerating devaluation of fiat currencies (euro / USD / yen)

2️⃣ National banks as drivers of demand in the past and present (especially China, Russia & India, but also the ECB)

3️⃣ Demand from private households is increasing. The sharp rise in the price of gold in recent months has brought gold to the attention of the public.

📈 In the short and medium term, a small correction or consolidation at the high level would not really be surprising, but in the long term I see the price of gold at 5,000 dollars rather than 3,000 dollars an ounce. What do you think?

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