Hello everyone,

I'm currently thinking a lot about my long-term strategy and would like to hear your opinion on whether I'm making a mistake or whether the plan is sound.

1. my current situation

I am currently invested very "classically" to tech-heavy.

- ETFs:

- Scalable MSCI AC World $SCWX (+0,34%) 6.300 € (currently 200 € savings rate)

- Xtrackers MSCI World IT $XDWT (+0,81%) 8.000 € (currently 400 € savings rate)

- Individual shares:

- Allianz $ALV (-0,82%) : 2.900 €

- Nvidia $NVDA (-0,04%) : 3.900 €

- TSMC $2330 : 1.700 €

I realize that the IT ETF plus Nvidia/TSMC gives me an extreme tech lump risk.

2. my consideration / the "why"

I am considering changing my strategy from "accumulation/growth" to "distribution/dividend growth".

My main thought concerns the later withdrawal phase (in about 25 years):

If I save purely accumulating, I will have to sell units when I get older to get money. If there is then a bear market, I will eat up my assets much more quickly (sequence of return risk).

With a dividend strategy - according to my theory - I don't touch the substance, but live off the cash flow. I also think it is psychologically easier to stay invested in crises if dividends are still regularly paid into the account....and of course dividends are reinvested during the savings phase.

3. the new strategy: "wide moat" / monopolies

I want to invest specifically in companies that have a de facto monopoly or oligopoly. The idea is that where there is (and can be) no competition, pricing power is high and dividends are (more) secure.

I am thinking of sectors that are "inescapable":

- Railroads: Canadian National Railway ($CNR (+1,01%)). No one is building new railroad tracks across North America. It is physically and legally almost impossible to build a competing railroad across Canada and the United States.

- Waste: Waste Management ($WM (+0,07%) ) - Getting landfills approved is nearly impossible.

- Infrastructure/Gases: Air Liquide - not only US? Air Liquide often build gas plants (oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen) directly on the premises of their customers (steelworks, chemical parks). A change of supplier is extremely expensive for the customer and logistically a nightmare ($AI (-0,77%) ) or American Tower ($AMT (-0,11%) ) They own the physical framework of the communication towers. When 5G or 6G is rolled out, AT&T or Verizon will need space on these towers. The leases are long-term and inflation-linked.

- Financial infrastructure: Visa/Mastercard ($V (+0,04%) / $MA) (+0,17%). Very low dividend but a monopoly/duopoly?

4. the plan

My savings rate should initially be 600 € later also 700€, ...800€).

I am considering stopping the old savings plans (AC World & IT) and dividing the new money as follows:

- Core: A quality dividend ETF (e.g. Fidelity Global Quality Income ($FGEQ (+0,34%) ) for the base.

- Satellite: 2-3 of the above "monopoly stocks" direct savings.

My questions to you:

1. Errors in thinking when taking the sample?

Is the assumption that I will be better off with a dividend portfolio in a crash than by selling ETF shares valid? Or is it "left pocket, right pocket"?

2. Dealing with legacy assets:

What do I do with the big tech block (IT ETF + Nvidia)? Leave it as a "growth booster" or reallocate to immediately reduce the cluster risk (pay attention to taxes)?

3. Stock selection:

Do stocks like Canadian National Railway or Waste Management fit my logic? Are there other "monopolists" that I am overlooking?

4. Is the savings rate sufficient?

Does it make sense to divide €600 into ETF + individual shares, or will I get bogged down by the fees/units?

Are there any general suggestions for improvement?

PS: The tax-free amount is €2000 as I am married.

I look forward to your input and critical opinions!

Thank you.

In recent weeks, I have been able to lower my entry prices for individual stocks here and there ( $HNR1 (+0,08%)
$CNR (+1,01%)
$NOVO B (+0,82%)
$DTE (+1,34%)
$VICI (-0,93%)
$ADP (-0,13%) ), but I still think the market as a whole is currently somewhat overvalued. I will therefore be using less of the variable portion of my savings rate to buy individual shares over the next few quarters.

The central banks are a little more reluctant to cut interest rates, so hopefully there will be good opportunities to buy bonds for a few more months, which I would like to finance with the cuts in the savings rate for individual shares.

This month I have already added to my French bonds and will continue to do so, as they are currently trading at historically low levels. Although interest rates are falling, the risk premium for French government bonds is rising due to the budget deficits, which naturally causes the price to fall. However, as I do not believe that the solvency of the state is seriously at risk, I am taking advantage of the low quotation to achieve a price return in addition to the coupon. During the negative interest rate phase, the bond quoted at over 230% at times.

Yesterday I decided to part with my position at a slight loss. $CNR (+1,01%) position with some loss... 🚋

As one of my first major investments and also intended as a long-term position, I decided to do so at the time after only a brief look at the superficial key figures. I wasn't really involved here yet and was in the "just try it out" phase. Of course, I also paid far too much for the paper... 😥

Due to the fact that I am taking my journey in the stock/investing universe more and more seriously and I am constantly trying to sift through more information and evaluate it better in order to make informed decisions. Yesterday I decided to draw the line here, mainly due to the management:

When Tracey took over Q1/22 it looked something like this:

EPS C$1.32 // long term debt C$13.383M // net debt to EBITDA 1.92 // shares out 700M

Arrived today in Q3/25:

EPS C$1.87 // long term debt C$21.120M // net debt to EBITDA 2.54 // shares out 620M

Only 6% growth was reported for earnings, and CAPEX of C$2.8B was announced again. The outlook remains at the lower end of the range with mid to high single digit EPS growth...

In addition, there is also the increased pressure from direct competition from CPKC.

During this time, around $8B in new debt was raised (at fairly high interest rates) to buy back shares at the highest valuation. At the same time, the growth prospects are not really exciting and there is a lot of turnover in the management team.

For me, the new M-team does not seem to be really experienced and the handling of the capital allocation is more than questionable.

That's why I'm calling it a day for now ❌

In any case, I've learned something again with this stock and hopefully I can and will project this into the future. I'm now taking much more time with the evaluation and can hold back instead of immediately dumping my money into the market (individual stocks).

I haven't quite thought about where to allocate the money I've freed up yet, but I'm already interested in taking a position in $CP (+1,68%) or possibly $UNP (-0,07%) build up.

I know it's looooong 😂But the valuation of $CP (+1,68%) is currently coming down even further, the growth story seems interesting and the management also looks good.

I may also use the money freed up to increase other positions in the portfolio, we'll see.

Do you have any tips or experience in this regard? Do you check the figures first or whether the management can/will deal with them?

Good evening everyone,

as I am learning more and more and also going into more depth, questioning my decisions again and trying to become better.

A topic that I have more or less put on the back burner until recently, or have not given the attention it deserves?

Specifically, it's about the management of your/my/everyone's investments...

*If you are not interested in the $CNR (+1,01%) you can scroll straight to the end and the question*

I am currently invested in $CNR (+1,01%) and have thought about simply adding to it again, as I have cash and the price seems cheap. This is about a stock that I bought at the very beginning and still hold. It's probably super boring for most people, but I don't think it's such a bad stock for my purposes. Solid dividend with quite good growth, Moat, etc....

Of course, one wonders why the share price has suffered so badly recently, a pleasure to buy? A self-runner? Don't panic and just invest money, as everything is still fine?

Calming down helps, as they say sometimes the best way to invest is to do nothing at all? In any case, I've put off buying more for the time being and have questioned my "no-brainer" from the single stock Invest Start again.

Apart from the fact that most people are probably questioning the investment anyway, especially with regard to the current market situation, here are some brief thoughts on why I did not buy more and even question the investment question the investment.

Since Tracey Robinson was brought on board as the new CEO of $CNR (+1,01%) was brought on board, there has been a new focus on and what stands out:

• High spending on audits
• High expenditure and new debt for share buybacks at ATH
• 4 new management members in a very short time

This raises the question of what to make of this.

The last figures were not that bad, but in the background are the management decisions that are/have been made.

Of course $CNR (+1,01%) factors such as customs duties, lower volumes, etc., which can/will have an absolute impact on the share price.

At the moment, however, in my opinion, I see more displeasure or uncertainty towards the management from the investors' point of view.

It seems that Tracy is currently raising a lot of capital and shaking up the management in order to get on a certain track. (pun totally intended)

Short term decline for long term growth?

I remain suspicious for the time being and will probably not add to the stock, even if I think that the price is currently quite good and it is probably not a mistake in the long term.

I don't really agree with the management's decisions at the moment and will keep an eye on this for the time being as it does have something of a red flag for me.

Perhaps someone here is also invested and can/would like to share their thoughts on $CNR (+1,01%) express their thoughts? I may also be completely wrong...

TL,DR:

How much weighting do you give to management in your investments? How do you obtain information and what exactly are you looking for? Are there deal breakers that make an investment uninteresting for you? Do you not care as long as the share price stays on track?

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this 🚋

Have a nice rest of Sunday, it's still going ;)

$CNR (+1,01%) announces for Q3 that the full-year guidance for mid to high single-digit growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share is maintained. Q3 revenue increased by 1% while net income increased by 5%, driven by a 1.7% lower expense ratio.

Free cash flow for the first nine months of 2025 amounted to CAD 2,341 million, an increase of CAD 281 million or 14% compared to the same period in 2024.

the same period in 2024.

The company repurchased almost 8 million shares for around CAD 1 billion in the third quarter.

In view of the ongoing tariff dispute with the USA, I personally consider the figures to be very satisfactory.

PSA:

First of all, I have to say that I didn't really expect to join such a pleasant and profitable community - I actually just wanted to track my portfolio. Well, be that as it may, I'm really grateful to have landed here and a big thank you to everyone who actively shares knowledge, tips and simply their thoughts! Until now I've only ever been a silent reader, let's see if that changes now :)

For example, I always like to read where the different characters come from and how the introduction went, or generally just how the big picture was put together.

I'm probably from the absolutely financially uninterested side, and I've enjoyed rolling in consumption.

Banks - insurance companies - investments - GDP - ECB - I just want to withdraw money, maybe it's still a little way to the overdraft facility (what exactly does it do?) Anyway, you don't have to know everything.

Sometime in the mid-twenties - Another call from the local farmer's bank...

*ugh another annual consultation 😖 *

Well, I can come by on Thursday shortly before 1800, I already have a building society saver, financially it doesn't look bad now, you can earn a bit on the overdraft. But how about a fund, that gives a return and you can build up capital, better than our very below-average call money account.

No sooner said than done, we take the fund on offer and pay 150 euros a month into it, it'll be fine.

In fact, I let the whole thing run for a few years and when I finished the transfer I saw, oops, there are green numbers with + and my capital is growing.

I then stumbled across the Y-channels and soaked up information about ETFs, Bitcoin, neobrokers, what the TER is, dividends, etc.

Wait a minute, how much does my fund cost at Bauernbank? I can invest in an MSCI World for much less at Bank Y? That sounds much better!

So I open an account, move the money over and please invest in this MSCI World + EM... Savings plan set up and logged out.

Corona must be happening somewhere in between, everything is suddenly red? I'm at home due to long-term illness and have some time to do some research...

Early thirties - It's now the year 2024, the Corona thing is over, I've changed jobs, etc.

Everything is great and over the years the interest in finance, the stock market and everything that goes with it has grown enormously.

The fund and building society savings plan were liquidated (I could/should even have kept the building society savings plan with closure and possibly a later special payment, but that probably wouldn't have been a bad thing) EGAL I was clearly duped, get rid of it 😂

At the beginning of the year I was tempted by individual stocks, I don't know my way around, but a little entry into ETFs can't hurt, can it?

Of course, the classic way of choosing what to buy without premonition and preparation (due to the job and the current situation = emotions)

We buy Nukular shares, clearly there is a security here for approx. 44 euros $CCO (+0,77%) and it also looks good $UEC (-0,49%) doesn't look bad either, both fulfill my pattern (uranium). Absolutely bullish or what is that called again?

Puhhh would have, would be, if, the knowledge of today and so on 🤐

A custody account was opened at Bauernbank especially for this, my God there were still fees involved, but we're not reading that yet. The entry is done, let's see how the journey continues. I think the value was around 500 euros.

The next mission was coming up and I wanted to close my custody account at Bank Y with the ETFs and transfer everything to my first neobroker. More transactions, more capital flow and more individual securities are planned. Moreover, fewer costs are better, we are saving now.

This is where the first uncertainty came into play - but the transfer will take longer than expected? Is my money gone now? At that time, I think there was about 8k in the ETFs, which was a lot of money for me. But a few days later it was done, my securities were transferred, but the return of a few thousand % was nice to look at but not real.

Again uncertainty, discussions with the support of both banks, no real results and days and weeks passing by.

Absolutely irrational behavior, because it was really only cosmetic... Anyway, my monk then decided - I'll just sell my ETFs and then we'll start learning by doing. If you look at the transaction history in my portfolio, I think you know what I mean.

I have "informed" myself or looked at what I know, what I think I should or could buy and I have changed my mind very often, why not with the low order costs.

But I also have to say that I took this step rationally and I wanted to get in quickly and learn directly on the object, not with some demo depot or something else. Real losses = real learning curve, your trading will probably be punished or rewarded.

There's already a lot of text here, actually I've already told you how I ended up here. I have already made a few "mistakes" or "too quick" decisions, which probably everyone has experienced when I look back on them today and as is certainly evident from my purchases/sales. Up to this point there is nothing to recognize, no real analysis, who knows who is in management and do I really understand the whole thing?

The Novo $NOVO B (+0,82%) I rode the Novo FOMO train, I really wanted to have Chipotle $CMG (+0,27%) in my portfolio at the highest levels, I've turned over my savings plans umpteen times.... Somewhere I'm a Canada fan, so something like $CNR (+1,01%) of course not missing....

But I don't feel bad at all, my view of the current portfolio is actually pretty good. One or two of the right decisions were definitely made, and my interest in the subject is also steadily increasing. My impulse control is getting better and better and I think analyzing the market and the individual companies is becoming more valuable.

As I've already written a lot, I probably won't say much more about my portfolio, which I will share for now.

I've become a big fan of company presentations/reports and think it's great when people tell you why/why they invested in a particular company.

That's why I've actually planned to present my portfolio in more detail soon with the thoughts behind it.

If you look at the transactions, you will see that there are certain patterns and that everything looks a bit wild and without a plan (which is what it was at the beginning).

Briefly about the portfolio and the story behind it, I started at the beginning of 2024 with around 10k financial resources and wanted to create a "solid" portfolio as quickly as possible that would break the 50k mark. I never thought it could happen so quickly... Of course, a lot of it is self-generated and paid in, I hope that the portfolio can then also take over a large part.

Constructive criticism and discussion is welcome but not necessary, the VWRL should actually be expanded more with the TDIV, but I think individual stocks are great too.

I am definitely pursuing a long-term horizon and would like to hold on to good companies for a long time, preferably value + growth, reinvesting dividends now + a decent savings rate. However, I also see myself investing in more companies with growth in the future, as I have laid my "foundation stone".

So much for now, have a nice evening and best wishes to the community!

*Sorry for any mistakes, if any. I can't or don't want to work through everything again now, so😁* must suffice.

In recent months, the Canadian National Railway has lost prominence in the market, while tech stocks have captured all the attention and capital. The price has fallen, but is this an opportunity?

After all, CNR still has it:

Unique rail network between Canada and the US

Stable revenue and regular dividends

Business with strong barriers to entry

And you, do you think $CNR (+1,01%) is just "out of fashion" because it belongs to a sector that currently gets little attention?