Unilever

A little more dividend building work.....

It flew in on Friday. Almost enough for a Magnum, so I had to make do with a Freeways Coke. Maybe next time it will be enough for the ice cream.

From 18-year-old wannabe investment banker to successful private asset manager: my (bumpy) path to €300,000 in a custody account

Part 1 of X (let's see how many there will be): The new Gordon Gekko? Between Chinese small-cap recommendations from stock market letters and "AT&T is better than Amazon" (2010 - 2016)

(Part 2: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

Previous story:

Inspired by @DonkeyInvestor I would now like to share my story and continue it if there is interest. Thanks for the cool idea!

My investment journey began about 2-3 years before my first securities purchase in 2013. While the financial crisis (2007-2009) only interested me marginally as a ~15-year-old, the emerging euro crisis from 2010 onwards aroused a much greater interest in the economy, sovereign debt and co. As part of some school work, I dealt with the debt crisis in Greece, among other things.

Through films like Wall Street or Margin Call - The Great Crash slowly sparked my interest in the stock market. With my first smartphone in 2012, I was able to secretly check share prices during lessons - which often led to the teacher confiscating it 😂 I primarily followed the prices of "cool" shares such as Daimler, Hugo Boss and Sony.

I grew a desire to become an investment banker myself and emigrate to Wall Street in New York (spoiler: neither happened 😉).

The first purchases:

My first purchases were made under contradictory circumstances. I was firmly convinced that a major crash was imminent (government debt, interest rate policy, ...) and was very convinced by well-known crash prophets such as Dirk Müller.

Nevertheless, I wanted to play along and bought my first shares.

In 2013, I started my dual business studies at a global bank. When I started my studies, I finally made my first securities purchases. On the one hand, my capital-forming benefits went into the DWS Top Dividende, and on the other, I set up an ETF savings plan on the DAX. In 2014, I added further shares such as AT&T $T (-0.14%) Verizon $VZ (-0.62%) Shell $SHEL (-0.74%) and Sony $6758 (+1.35%) were added. While Sony was a great investment, I unfortunately sold the stock far too early. My purchase price was around €12 and I sold at around €18. If I hadn't sold Sony, it would have been a tenbagger at times.

My main investment criteria at the time were

- Low P/E ratio

- High dividend yield

- And/or "cool" company

So in 2014 I had to choose between Amazon $AMZN (+0.26%) ("cool, but no dividend & much too high P/E ratio") and AT&T ("high dividend, low P/E ratio"). And, of course, the decision sucked with today's knowledge.

Another company was Macy's $M (+1.82%) . When I was in New York and visited the largest shopping center in the world, I was sure I had to have this stock.

The only two stocks I still have in my portfolio from my early years are Procter & Gamble $PG (-1.24%) (bought in 2015) and Unilever $ULVR (-1.44%) (bought in 2016).

In 2016, I had a total of 14 individual shares in my portfolio, 12 of which were sold in the following years and will probably never end up in my portfolio again.

The first lesson:

After I realized professionally that the path to investment banking and New York was probably not the right one after all (40 hours of work is really exhausting, I don't need 80 or more in investment banking), I slowly realized that I wasn't the next Gordon Gekko or Warren Buffett either.

It was too boring for me to just invest in shares - after all, I wanted to get rich quick and drive a Porsche! So from 2014, I also started investing in other things (no, unfortunately not crypto).

I tried my hand at various certificates, reverse convertibles and the like, all with little success. The biggest learning I had was with an absolutely hot tip from the internet. It was a classic pump and dump game from a stock market letter. Someone had stocked up on shares in a Chinese small cap (Tianbao Holdings) and then called on everyone to buy: "Share with the chance of a 10,000% return - forget Apple and co." It was advertised like this or something similar at the time.

I took my entire monthly salary (around €800) and thought to myself: get in! It didn't matter what the company was doing or why the opportunity should be so great! At first things went up and I was quickly up 20%. Then it went downhill - the initial investor had probably made his return and withdrawn the money. The stock exchanges quickly realized this and stopped trading. I tried to sell the shares on various stock exchanges and was able to get rid of them in Berlin, Bremen or somewhere else - with a loss of 50%. Two weeks of work for nothing. Although it was "only" a loss of €400, it really annoyed me. Not just the loss, but that I fell for something like that.

In hindsight, the €400 was extremely well invested and helped me a lot in my future investment career.

Asset development & return:

How did the first 3-4 years on the stock market go and how did my assets develop?

Year Deposit value Return

2013 2.000€ -12%

2014 8.600€ -1%

2015 17.000€ +4%

2016 35.000€ +14%

All in all, these were lost years for me in terms of returns. You can also see this from the green line, which was mostly in negative territory.

The stock markets did very well, and yet I mostly only saw losses or very low returns.

Conclusion & outlook:

So in 2016 it was clear to me: no investment banking, no New York, I'm not the new Warren Buffett and I'm not going to get rich overnight.

In the following 3 years from 2016 to 2019, I built on my initial experiences and slowly developed into a better investor. Nevertheless, more big mistakes followed (Bitcoin, Wirecard, ...).

#strategy
#personalstrategy
#etfs

$ULVR (-1.44%) Now wants to float the ice cream business as an independent company because sales have stalled.

https://www.ariva.de/news/unilever-aktie-erfolgswelle-im-anmarsch-11449902

Meal together!

I had to hand over this nice part of my portfolio with a teary eye.

I held Unilever for about 3-4 years. I'm a big fan of dividends, but you can guess what would have happened to the amount in Msci.

I decided to significantly rethink my strategy. I therefore shifted heavily into the Msci.

What does that bring me? Definitely peace of mind.

In future, I will reduce my portfolio by further positions. However, I won't give up grinning when the dividend arrives.

What do we learn from this? Sometimes the easiest way is also the most successful.

To beat the market, you usually need a fair amount of luck 🤓

Unilever Q3 2024 $ULVR (-1.44%)

Financial performance: Unilever reported Q3 2024 sales growth of 4.5% year-on-year, driven by volume growth of 3.6%. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of positive and improved volume growth, with all business units contributing to this growth. In particular, power brands such as Dove and Magnum achieved a strong sales increase of 5.4%.

Balance sheet analysis: Unilevers emphasizes its efforts to maintain a solid balance sheet through strategic divestments and acquisitions. The sale of the Russian subsidiary and the stake in the Qinyuan Group are examples of such strategic measures aimed at strengthening the financial position.

Income statement: Unilever's sales amounted to EUR 15.2 billion in the third quarter of 2024, remaining at the previous year's level. Although the underlying sales increase was positive, sales were impacted by a negative currency effect of 2.8% and a net effect from disposals of 1.5%. Unilever nevertheless confirmed its forecast for an underlying operating margin of at least 18% for the full year.

Cash flow analysis: Unilever demonstrates a proactive approach to cash flow and capital allocation through better strategic focus on acquisitions, divestments and an ongoing share buyback program.

Key drivers and profitability: Unilever expects an operating margin of at least 18% for the full year, with increasing investment in its key brands. In addition, the company plans to maintain the net debt to EBITDA ratio at around 2x to ensure a stable financial position.

Segment analysis:

• Beauty & Wellbeing: Recorded strong sales growth of 6.7%, driven by volume growth of 5.7%.
• Ice cream: Reported impressive sales growth of 9.8%, with 6.7% attributable to volume.
• Home Care: Reported moderate sales growth of 1.9%, with volume growth of 3.3%.
• Nutrition: Grew by 1.5%, with low volume growth of just 0.4%.

Competitive analysis: Unilever's strategic focus on its Power Brands and continuous innovation have helped the company maintain a competitive advantage. However, challenges in emerging markets, particularly in Indonesia and China, are areas where the company needs to further strengthen its competitive position.

Forecasts and management comments: Management is confident of achieving its targets for the year, with an expected sales increase of between 3% and 5% and an operating margin of at least 18%. The company is focusing on implementing its growth action plan and overcoming the challenges in key markets such as Indonesia.

Risks and opportunities:

• Risks: Currency fluctuations, geopolitical tensions and operational challenges in emerging markets pose significant risks.
• Opportunities: Unilever's continued focus on innovation, brand superiority and strategic divestitures provides good opportunities for growth.

Summary and strategic implications: Unilever's strategic focus on Power Brands and continuous operational improvements have resulted in positive volume growth across all businesses. However, challenges in emerging markets, particularly in Indonesia, require decisive action. The company's commitment to innovation and strategic divestments positions it well for future growth, although currency and geopolitical risks need to be carefully managed. The planned spin-off of the ice cream business and ongoing productivity programs are expected to improve operational efficiency and increase shareholder value in the long term. So it remains to be seen how it all pans out but Unilever is well on the way to improving.

Positive statements:

• Unilever reported its fourth consecutive quarter of positive and improved volume growth, with all divisions delivering higher volumes year-on-year. Underlying sales increased by 4.5%, driven by Power Brands, with particularly strong performances from Dove, Liquid I.V., Comfort and Magnum.
• Beauty & Wellbeing delivered a strong performance with sales growth of 6.7%, driven by volume growth of 5.7% and price growth of 0.9%.
• The ice cream segment grew by 9.8%, with 6.7% attributable to volume and 2.9% to price adjustments. This reflects continued operational improvements and successful innovation.
• In developed markets, underlying sales increased by 6.9%, almost entirely driven by volume growth of 6.8%, reflecting strong growth in Beauty & Wellbeing in North America and Home Care in Europe.
• Unilever's Power Brands recorded strong sales growth of 5.4%, supported by volume growth of 4.3%.

Negative statements:

• Indonesia saw a significant decline in sales of 18%, mainly due to long-term operational issues.
• The Nutrition division recorded sales growth of just 1.5%, with only a slight volume increase of 0.4% amid moderate prices and a general market slowdown.
• In emerging markets, underlying sales grew by just 2.9%, with volume contributing only 1.4%. This indicates slower growth compared to the developed markets.
• In China, sales declined slightly due to continued weak consumer sentiment and Unilever is currently reviewing its market access strategy.
• Home Care recorded moderate sales growth of 1.9%, with volume up 3.3%, partially offset by a price decline of 1.4% due to falling raw material costs.

Earnings summary this morning 👇🏼

$ULVR (-1.44%) | Unilever Q3 2024 Earnings

Rev €15.25B (est €15.398B)

DIV/SHR €O.4396

Underlying Volume 3.6% (est 3.1%)

Underlying Sales 4.5%, (est 4.25%)

Still Sees FY Underlying Sales To 5% (est 4.2%)

Still Sees FY Underlying Oper. Margin At Least 18%

2024 FY Outlook Unchanged

$BARC (+1.7%) | Barclays Q3 2024 Earnings

Pretax Profit £2.23B (est £1.96B)

Net Interest Income £3.31B (est £3.11B)

Investment Banking £594M (est £552.3M)

FICC Rev. £1.18B (est £1.13B)

Sees FY Cost To Income Ratio About

Sees FY UK Net Interest Income About £6.5B

$AAL (-1.43%) | Anglo American Q3 2024 Earnings

Diamond Prod 5.6M Carats (est 5.6M)

Copper Output 181,000 tons (est 181,334)

American Sees Fy Diamond Prod 23M to 26M Carats

De Beers To Continue To Assess Options To Lower Output

PGMS Demerger Is On Track To Complete By Mid 2025

$RMS (+0.75%) | Hermes International Q3 2024 Earnings

Rev €3.70B (est €3.68B)

Sales At Constant FX 11.3% (est 10.5%)

Leather Goods Sales At Constant FX 14% (est 12.8%)

CFO: Sees No Change In Global Trends Early Q4

CFO: China Higher Basket Spend Made Up For Lower Traffic

$005380 | Hyundai reports a 6.5% drop in profits in the third quarter despite an increase in sales, leading to a fall in the Seoul share price of almost 5%. Operating profit falls to 3.6 trillion won, while the operating margin drops to 8.3%.

$BN (-0.7%) | Danone increases its turnover in the third quarter by 4.2% to 6.9 billion euros, exceeding analysts' expectations. Demand is particularly high in North America and Asia.

$RNO (+0.81%) | Renault increases sales by 1.8% to 10.7 billion euros in the third quarter, but falls short of analysts' expectations. Exchange rate effects have a dampening effect on the result, without which a 5% increase in sales would have been possible.

$SY1 (-0.34%) | Symrise raises its forecast for organic growth in 2024 to around 7 % after strong sales growth in the first nine months. Sales rose by 6 % to 3.8 billion euros, driven by petcare and fragrance products.

$WAF (-3.21%) | Siltronic raises 2024 EBITDA margin guidance to 24-26% as acceptance of new Singapore factory is delayed. Third-quarter sales rise 2.3% to EUR 357m, exceeding expectations, while profit falls to EUR 19m.

$BEI (-0.06%) | Beiersdorf records organic sales growth of 6.5% to 7.5 billion euros, but falls short of analysts' expectations. Sales of the luxury brand La Prairie fall by over 7% in China, while the annual targets for 2024 are confirmed.

Hello dear getquin community,

I am currently looking for a few good dividend stocks to add to my portfolio.

So far I have $BATS (-0.24%) , $MMM (+1.06%) and $O (+1.22%) in my portfolio.

My watchlist currently includes $PEP (+0.05%) , $MCD (-0.31%) and $ULVR (-1.44%) as I am convinced by them and also like to consume the products in my everyday life.

I would be very grateful if you could give me a few more suggestions and would be happy to discuss them with you!

Unilever or Mondelez

$ULVR (-1.44%) 🥊 $MDLZ (-1.01%)