$CSG (+1,21%) must revise downward its profit forecast for the current year. One reason is falling prices for standard ammunition, which is now in less demand than ammunition for longer ranges, the Amsterdam-listed company explained on Wednesday. In addition, the tank business—which has lower margins—now accounts for a larger share of the company’s operations. As a result, the return on sales in 2026 will be only around 21 percent, instead of the previously expected 24 to 25 percent. The revenue forecast of 7.4 to 7.6 billion euros remains unchanged. CSG shares plummeted by 17.7 percent.

In the first nine months of the year, revenue rose by 6 percent to 4.76 billion euros. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), however, grew only slightly, by 0.4 percent to 1.1 billion euros. This resulted in a return of 23.1 percent. At the end of September, CSG reached a record order backlog of 18 billion euros, representing a three-billion-euro increase since the beginning of the year.

In Germany, CSG acquired a 9.9 percent stake in the Bavarian specialty chemicals company Alzchem, which also produces nitroguanidine for explosives. CSG also has the option to acquire up to 25 percent of the shares. The Czech group had also been rumored to be interested in acquiring a stake in its German competitor KNDS.

Personally, I consider the stock price attractive starting at €8. At that level, there would be a dividend yield of at least approximately 3.5%. Anything else would not be a good deal for me here.

https://de.marketscreener.com/boerse-nachrichten/tschechischer-ruestungskonzern-csg-nimmt-gewinnprognose-zurueck-ce785edbda8df32c

$CSG (+1,21%)

First off: I’m invested in this stock myself and see great long-term potential in it despite the volatility. This isn’t investment advice; I’d just like to hear your thoughts.

Quick fact check:

CSG (Czechoslovak Group) hasn’t had it easy in recent months (see chart). After a strong IPO in early 2026 at over €33 per share, we’ve now reached a level of around €14 (close to an all-time low).

The Q1 '26 figures were actually good from an operational standpoint:

• Revenue: €1.544 billion (+13.8% year-over-year)
• Operating EBIT margin: a solid 24.1%
• Order backlog: just under €17 billion -> enormous potential for the coming years
• Debt: Net debt-to-operating EBITDA ratio at a healthy 1.3x

So why the drop in the stock price?

Clear answer: short sellers

--> They have questioned the business model; the company’s lack of transparency in particular has been criticized, leading to serious allegations (e.g., Hunterbrook): Hunterbrook argues that a significant portion of the business and revenue does not come from in-house manufacturing, but rather from the purchase, processing, and resale of old ammunition stocks.

Currently, CSG is being presented at the Eurosatory trade show in Paris as a systems provider for air defense, ammunition, and vehicle technology, but the market is likely waiting for new, clear signals, which will only come with the half-year results in August.

My assessment:

I consider the current valuation to be significantly below the company’s operational value—but only if the allegations can be refuted. Should CSG prove with its half-year results in August that its production capacities are genuine, the current share price could represent a unique opportunity. If the operational uncertainty persists, I believe it will turn into a "value trap."

What do you think? Do you see the price drop as an entry opportunity, or are you avoiding the stock due to the lack of transparency? Where do you see the stock by summer '27? A recovery toward €30 or a total collapse?

@BigMo I recall that you’re also invested. Do you stand by your opinion?

I look forward to constructive responses.

Best regards

$CSG (+1,21%)

what do you think

is she still coming?

$PANW (+0,65%) Palo Alto Networks (100x @ 136,32€ new purchase)

My conviction pick of the month.

PANW is -31% from the high, near the 52-week low and the CEO bought $10m of his own shares on 3/27. First open-market purchase since 2019, which is no coincidence.

My thesis: In a world with an active US-Iran cyber war, escalating nation-state attacks and exploding AI agent attack surface, cybersecurity is critical infrastructure.

PANW is the leading platform with $11.3B revenue guidance (+22%), 38-39% FCF margin and $18.7B Remaining Performance Obligations. The CyberArk integration ($25B) is squeezing margins in the short term, which is exactly what creates the entry point.

$MSFT (+0,54%) Microsoft (20x @ 317,60€ buy)

MSFT trades at ~23x forward P/E, the cheapest level since early 2023.

Azure is growing 39% at $75B+ run-rate, $625B Commercial RPO (+110% YoY), and 53 of 53 analysts rate Buy. The selloff after the January earnings (-31% from ATH) was an overreaction to the capex jump. Today's AI infrastructure spending is tomorrow's revenue and that is already contracted.

MSFT remains my A-tier big tech pick and the enterprise cloud backbone of a world where data sovereignty matters.

$NTR (+0,54%) (100x @ €65.88 re-buy)

Nutrien is the world's largest potash producer from Canada, my A-tier country. Potash has no substitute, it's as essential as oil.

FY2025: $2.3B net profit (+200%), record potash sales of 14.25Mt, EBITDA +13%. And the share price is close to a multi-year low with ~4.5% dividend yield. The Hormuz closure threatens fertilizer supply chains from the Middle East. Nutrien operates completely isolated from it. Zeihan calls food security one of the three pillars of national resilience.

$CSG (+1,21%) CSG N.V. (500x @ €23.29 buy)

Conviction buy into my core European defense position.

With the current order pipeline and European defense budgets serious for the first time since the Cold War, CSG remains one of the most undervalued European defense plays for me.

JPM takes a similar view.

Rating: Overweight, target price €40 (Dec. 2027).

What did you treat your portfolio to in March? 😬👍

What are your top 3 best performers in February?

My top ETF in February

$TDIV (+0,61%) +6.2%

$JEGP (+0,17%) +4.8%

$IDVY (+0,93%) +3.2%

My top individual stocks February

$DTE (+0,28%) +24.7%

$ENGI (+0,84%) +8.6%

$WKL (+0,95%) +6.4%

Laggards February

$HTGC (+0,76%) -10%

$MAIN (+0,47%) -7.7%

$CSG (+1,21%) -10.5%

After my $ADBE (+1,48%) last week, I bought again this week.

📈 The $CSG (+1,21%) -position was increased to 600 shares.

I see the structural increase in NATO defense spending and the extensive order backlog as key drivers for further diversifying my defense sleeve in a targeted manner.

✨ New in the portfolio is $VST (-1,88%) .

Vistra Corp is one of the most attractive AI energy stocks and, with a forward P/E ratio of around 14 and a PEG of 0.61, is valued comparatively favorably in relation to expected growth.

After the share price decline of around 21% below the all-time high, the fundamental situation is strong, supported by a 20-year nuclear contract with Meta, the USD 4.7bn acquisition of Cogentrix and expected earnings growth of 120% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

With nuclear and gas capabilities, the company is positioning itself as a key energy partner for AI data centers, and in my opinion, the valuation does not yet fully reflect the structural tailwinds.

🗺️ In the current macro environment, I continue to see my portfolio as robustly positioned.

My overweight in the oil and gas sector of around 10 % has delivered noticeable outperformance in the past month.

Precious metals, especially silver, are consolidating, but I do not see a sustained change in trend in the medium term and remain invested in both ETCs and mining stocks.

AI-related sectors, especially in the energy segment (e.g. $VST), remain structural winners for me, which is why I want to consistently use setbacks to expand positions.

$BTC (-0,14%) (20% weighting) remains the problem child of my portfolio and is currently trading at the level of 2 years ago.

Although I had clearly identified the trend break and the start of a new bear market here, I did not act accordingly. 🫣

What was your last purchase and why?