The military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran is causing strong market movements worldwide. Investors are shifting out of cyclical sectors and into security, energy and defense.

_________________________

Bitcoin $BTC (-0,64%) shows surprising stability

• 📈 In the meantime +8,1 %
• 💰 Just over 70,000 dollars
• Stabilization at around 69,000 dollars

Despite geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is apparently being used as a liquidity parking lot in the short term. At the same time, volatility remains high - further escalations could trigger new spikes.

_________________________

🛢 Oil prices up significantly

• Brent: + just under 6 %
• WTI: + a good 5 %
• In the meantime even +13 %

According to the report, the USA is currently no release from the strategic oil reserve. The market is still considered to be supplied, but the situation remains tense.

_________________________

🏦 Banks under pressure

The European banking index loses around 3,5 % - sharpest decline since April 2025.

Particularly affected:

• HSBC - $HSBA (-6,88%)
• Barclays - $BARC (-6,1%)
• Standard Chartered - $STAN (-5,6%)
• Deutsche Bank - $DBK (-7,29%)
• BNP Paribas - $BNP (-4,08%)
• BBVA - $BBVA (-5,35%)
• Commerzbank - $CBK (-4,73%)

In the USA also weaker until the US opening:

• Bank of America - $BAC (-2,3%)
• Citigroup - $C (-3,2%)

Reason: Strong Middle East business of many institutions and general risk aversion of investors.

_________________________

✈️ Travel industry collapses

High oil prices and uncertainty weigh heavily on tourism stocks:

• TUI - $TUI1 (-7,12%) (-11 %)
• Lufthansa - $LHA (-4,02%) (-11 %)

Flights to the region are canceled, travel offers suspended. Investors fear rising costs and falling booking figures.

_________________________

💎 Luxury stocks clearly in the red

The European luxury index loses almost 4 %.

Strongly affected:

• Richemont - $CFR (-1,23%)
• Swatch - $UHR (-0,55%)
• LVMH - $MC (-1,67%)
• Hermès - $RMS (-1,2%)
• Kering - $KER (-2,73%)
• Brunello Cucinelli - $BC (-1,84%)
• Moncler - $MONC (-2,77%)
• Ferragamo - $SFER (+5,71%)

Background:

Luxury is heavily dependent on global travel. Capital flows out of cyclical stocks.

_________________________

🛡 Defense stocks as clear winners

Geopolitical tensions drive up defense stocks:

• BAE Systems - $BA. (+3,18%)
• Lockheed Martin - $LMT (+1,69%)
• RTX - $RTX (-0,68%)
• Kratos - $KTOS (-2,13%)
• Hensoldt - $HAG (+4,62%)
• Leonardo - $LDO (+3,36%)
• Renk - $R3NK (+1,92%)
• Rheinmetall - $RHM (+0,87%)

Partial price increases of 3-6 %.

The focus is particularly on missile defense systems and possible increases in defense budgets.

_________________________

🚢 Shipping companies benefit

Transport values increase due to detour (avoidance of Hormuz, Suez Canal & Bab al-Mandab):

• Maersk - $MAERSK A (-1,04%)
• Hapag-Lloyd - $HLAG (-2,31%)
• Torm - $TRMD A (-7,46%)
• Frontline - $FRO (-5,5%)
• Hoegh Autoliners $HAUTO (+0,82%)

Reason: Shortage of transport capacity and speculation on rising freight rates.

_________________________

🥇 Gold in demand

• Gold price: +2,5 %

Profiteers in mining stocks:

• Evolution Mining - $EVN (-0,23%)
• Northern Star - $NST (+0,24%)

The sector has been showing relative strength for several days.

$4GLD (-0,45%)
$GOLD
$GOLD (-3,08%)

_________________________

📊 Market logic clearly recognizable

Winner:

🛡 Armaments

🚢 Shipping companies

🥇 Gold

₿ Bitcoin (short-term)

Losers:

🏦 Banks

✈️ Travel

💎 Luxury

_________________________

🔎 Conclusion

The market reaction follows the classic pattern of geopolitical crises:

• Risk is reduced
• Capital seeks security
• Energy prices rise
• Defense stocks benefit

The decisive factor remains whether the situation eases diplomatically - or escalates further.

_________________________

Source:

Reuters: Anleger greifen bei Bitcoin als "Fluchtvehikel" zu (Via TradingView)

I was too anxious and everything was already too expensive for me to buy more. But it was actually clear that the US/Iran conflict would escalate.

It was clear that shipping stocks - especially tanker stocks - would rise due to the longer route around Africa and the associated higher revenues.

It was clear that oil producers outside the Gulf region would rise, as oil transports through the Persian Gulf would be blocked for the time being and the oil price would rise as a result.

My shipping companies $TRMD A (-7,46%) , $WAWI (-0,45%) and $MPCC (-0,51%) are well up today. Petroleo Brasileiro $PETR4 (+1,29%) is well up.

Why hadn't I bought more shares in all of them and why are these four companies among the smaller positions in my portfolio?

Because I was too anxious and too hesitant. Crap!

I've wanted to add a container shipping company to the portfolio for a while now. $ZIM (-1,2%) I would have liked to, but they are now out of the running following the takeover. I have therefore opted for $MPCC (-0,51%) even though they have become quite expensive again in the meantime.

With $WAWI (-0,45%) (Wallenius Wilhelmsen) and $TRMD A (-7,46%) (Torm) I have now mapped the ferry, tanker and container areas. Maybe I'll add bulk goods at some point.

I am aware that the whole sector is a cyclical business, which is also sensitive to customs duties, crises and political developments. Nevertheless, I believe that globalization cannot be stopped in the long term and that the need to transport bulk goods is more likely to increase than decrease.

(Image generated with Lovart.ai, modified in Photoshop)

It feels like almost all the prices of shipping companies in my watchlist (see screenshot) and in the portfolio ( $TRMD A (-7,46%) , $WAWI (-0,45%) ).

I was wondering why this is the case and perhaps the explanation could be as follows:

The current surge in shipping stocks in February 2026 can be attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, a recovery in global trade and sector-specific special effects.

• Geopolitical risk premiums: Renewed tensions between Iran and the USA and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are forcing ships to take longer detours (e.g. around the Cape of Good Hope instead of through the Suez Canal). This reduces the effective availability of ships and drives up freight rates.
• Strength in the tanker sector: Tanker stocks in particular are leading the rally. The sanctions against Russia and other players remain in place, permanently lengthening trade routes ("tonne-mile effect"). In addition, increased stockpiling by countries such as China for a high demand for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers).
• Recovery in global trade: Lower interest rates and a more stable global economy are boosting trade volumes. Chinese exports in particular are surprisingly positive, which has driven up forecasts for the coming years.
• Sector rotation & dividends: Following a period of uncertainty, investors are increasingly looking for tangible assets and stocks with strong cash flows. Many shipping companies have strengthened their balance sheets in recent years and are now attracting investors with attractive valuations and dividend promises.

A little later, but not too late, I'll also have my say at the end of the year, together with an insight into the goings-on of the Opi before @Tenbagger2024 , @SAUgut777 and some others get impatient, as you know, old people are a bit slower. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank and appreciate all those who contribute here on GQ with great analyses and strong contributions, critical comments and a wonderful exchange. I'm deliberately not naming any individuals now, otherwise I won't be able to finish. All of you together are great, whether you're a veteran or a newcomer. The community is alive and I am happy to be a part of it. Thanks also to @christian and the Getquin team, who make this possible by maintaining the platform, even if things sometimes don't run smoothly. The Bavarian says: Basst scho

The year 2025 was exciting and, from my point of view, successful in terms of my expectations. If you don't feel like evaluating a boring dividend strategy, don't want to read about overnight and fixed-term deposits, aren't interested in certificates and don't like the Sparkasse, you are welcome to leave here after Rewind 2025. Many thanks to everyone else for reading and, if necessary, commenting.

At least as far as the majority of shares are concerned, I am known to be invested in dividend stocks in order to generate the highest possible cash flow. I am now almost 62 years old and do not value excessive performance but would like to make a living from the income from my assets and decided to stop working at the beginning of the year when the company where I was employed was dissolved. I see myself as a buy and hold a while. Nothing lasts forever, especially with high-dividend shares. There are regular reallocations without getting into an operational frenzy. In 2025, for example $TRMD A (-7,46%) and a large position $HAUTO (+0,82%) had to leave the portfolio, the high dividend expectations were significantly reduced. The $QYLE (-0,32%) has not recovered from April, $EQNR (+2,48%) and $VICI (+1,34%) led to the brink of capital loss despite respectable dividends and had to give way, as did $MUX (-2,81%) with its inconsistencies. New additions were $NN (-0,37%) , $PFE (-0,76%) , $DTE (-0,06%) and a first position at the end of the year $ARCC (-0,91%) You can see the composition in my profile. I generally try to limit myself to +/- 20 positions and weight them according to purchase. A maximum of 20k per position is invested. This results in the calculation of my dividends and expected income. In its current composition, the portfolio shown here has a value of just over € 340,000 as at 31.12.2025 and has generated gross dividends of just under € 23,000 this year. This corresponds to a dividend yield of 6.73%

The time-weighted yield was 18.63% and therefore well above average, at least better than 67% of the getquin community. I wasn't able to beat the DAX, but at least I outperformed the S&P500 and beat the relevant MSCI World index by some distance. Even on a 5-year view I am on a par. Tobacco stocks did very well $BATS (+1,77%) , $IMB (-0,1%) and $MO (+1,53%) , $HSBA (-6,88%) , and $RIO (-0,53%) and of course $965515 (-0,52%) that I physically hold and the $EWG2 (-0,36%) .

That's all there is to the part of my investments shown here in GQ. What follows is a piece of my life story and the first part inside Dividendenopi.

As I said, I now live off my assets. This amounts to just under € 1.2 million in all the forms of investment I hold. Is that enough for a carefree life? For me in any case. Because on top of that, I have a debt-free, owner-occupied property (a single-family home with a large garden in a quiet rural location near a city of 600,000 inhabitants) and a rented two-family home, appropriately enough, as a neighboring property. Partly financed, rent surplus after installment to the bank a good € 700 per month, flows completely into the maintenance reserve. Claims from BAV, life insurance, building society savings contracts will be added on top in the next few years, but are not taken into account here. There's even a savings account with €18,000..... half of which belongs to my wife and she doesn't want to close it.

My wife (still) works and has a decent income despite working part-time and has other liquid assets in the lower six-figure range. She does it herself, the stock market is the devil's work. Her story is not included here either.

So I / we are doing pretty well after all. It wasn't always like that, anyone who is or was self-employed knows that. But consistent financial planning is important, no matter what the situation, as is sticking to your savings rate. I started investing in real estate at the beginning of the 1990s and have been liquidating it over the last few years. In conjunction with my own wealth accumulation and an inheritance, I am now in a comfortable situation for me.

What do I do with the rest of the money outside the getquin portfolio? A good € 500,000 is (still) in call money and fixed-term deposit accounts. Interest rate hopping on call money and fixed-term deposits from 2 years ago yields around 3% on call money and over 4% on fixed-term deposits. The remaining capital is invested in certificates. Mainly in fixed-coupon express certificates with quarterly payout and partly in bonus certificates with CAP and barrier.

My investments currently generate a net monthly cash flow of € 4000, which is enough for me to live on. Plus € 800 ALG on top until the beginning of 2027.... But before the company closed, I only worked 16.5 hours a week. With my wife's income, that's a good €6500, which is bearable. You can certainly do more with your assets, depending on your needs. We live rather modestly, don't have any children and aren't the consumer type.

How am I invested outside of dividends, why certificates and which broker, where and how overnight and fixed-term deposits? I thought that would go beyond the scope of this article, so I'll come back to it in a second part. Thanks for your participation so far and see you soon

$WAWI (-0,45%)

Today I put 700 shares $WAWI (-0,45%) into my portfolio today. Originally I wanted to buy a larger position in the $BOAT (-0%) - ETF, but unfortunately it is probably difficult to buy this security in a regular German custody account as the ETF has not issued a fact sheet for the European market.

I am now building up a small portfolio of shipping stocks myself and will see how it develops or whether my fleet goes under.

So far I have bought:

325 x Torm ($TRMD A (-7,46%) ), tanker

750 x Wallenius Wilhelmsen ($WAWI (-0,45%)), car ferries and logistics

I would like to add the following in perspective:

Hafnia ($HAFNI (-5,66%) ), Tanker

ZIM Integrated Shipping ($ZIM (-1,2%) ), Shipping and Logistics

MPC Container Ships ($MPCC (-0,51%) ), container ships

Graphic created with lovart.ai, modified in Photoshop

@2025Invest drew my attention to a really interesting report yesterday.

$TRMD A (-7,46%)
$HAFNI (-5,66%)

HAFNIA LIMITED: Hafnia enters into a preliminary agreement to acquire 14.45% of TORM's shares from Oaktree

Hafnia pays $22 per share.

I find this very exciting. This is a product tanker fleet buying into a competitor.

$TRMD A (-7,46%) - The share price has been rising more steadily for half a month now. Is there any news/rumors, or have people bought the share because of the upcoming dividend payment?

$TRMD A (-7,46%)

🚢 TORM Q2 2025 - Solid despite weaker freight rates

• Revenue (TCE): $208.2 M (-36% YoY)
• EBITDA (adj.): $129 M (-49 %)
• Net result: $58.7 M (-70 %)
• TCE rate: $26,672/day (previous year: $42,057)
• EPS: $0.60
• Dividend: $0.40/share → 67 % payout
• Guidance raised: TCE $800-950 M, EBITDA $475-625 M
• 56 % of Q3 fixed at $30,617/day

💡 Market normalizes after record year 2024 - dividend remains strong

$TRMD A (-7,46%) , $PETR4 (+1,29%) and $HAUTO (+0,82%)

Good morning!

@Dividendenopi What is your (your) plan for the three with regard to the upcoming quarterly figures? I read that some want to get out beforehand, despite upcoming dividends? Have I missed something?