First off: I’m invested in this stock myself and see great long-term potential in it despite the volatility. This isn’t investment advice; I’d just like to hear your thoughts.
Quick fact check:
CSG (Czechoslovak Group) hasn’t had it easy in recent months (see chart). After a strong IPO in early 2026 at over €33 per share, we’ve now reached a level of around €14 (close to an all-time low).
The Q1 '26 figures were actually good from an operational standpoint:
- Revenue: €1.544 billion (+13.8% year-over-year)
- Operating EBIT margin: a solid 24.1%
- Order backlog: just under €17 billion -> enormous potential for the coming years
- Debt: Net debt-to-operating EBITDA ratio at a healthy 1.3x
So why the drop in the stock price?
Clear answer: short sellers
--> They have questioned the business model; the company’s lack of transparency in particular has been criticized, leading to serious allegations (e.g., Hunterbrook): Hunterbrook argues that a significant portion of the business and revenue does not come from in-house manufacturing, but rather from the purchase, processing, and resale of old ammunition stocks.
Currently, CSG is being presented at the Eurosatory trade show in Paris as a systems provider for air defense, ammunition, and vehicle technology, but the market is likely waiting for new, clear signals, which will only come with the half-year results in August.
My assessment:
I consider the current valuation to be significantly below the company’s operational value—but only if the allegations can be refuted. Should CSG prove with its half-year results in August that its production capacities are genuine, the current share price could represent a unique opportunity. If the operational uncertainty persists, I believe it will turn into a "value trap."
What do you think? Do you see the price drop as an entry opportunity, or are you avoiding the stock due to the lack of transparency? Where do you see the stock by summer '27? A recovery toward €30 or a total collapse?
@BigMo I recall that you’re also invested. Do you stand by your opinion?
I look forward to constructive responses.
Best regards
