1Semana·

Your thoughts

asset_sage_2025 · 2026-04-28T12:05:23.617509Z

$CSG what do you think is she still coming?

$CSG (+8,25%)

what do you think

is she still coming?

11 Comentários

Keineui@Keineui

1Semana

Soil not in sight.

•

Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@Keineui I happened to check for myself yesterday, here's the answer:

**Moin! Mr. Prompt has fired up the AOK X-rays internally for you** ☕

No templates, no hallucinations, just the stone-cold facts about **CSG N.V. (ISIN: NL0015073TS8)**, also known as Czechoslovak Group.

You made three assertions and I checked them against the latest market data as of today (early May 2026).

**The fact check of your statements:**
1. **"Lost mightily since IPO":** **Correct.** CSG went public in Amsterdam at the end of January 2026 at EUR 25.00. It was one of the largest defense IPOs in Europe. Today (as of May 4, 2026), the share is trading at around EUR 15.60 to EUR 16.00. That is a brutal fall of almost 40% in just over three months. One all-time low follows the next.

2. **"Order books full":** **Correct** As Europe's second largest manufacturer of large caliber ammunition and owner of Excalibur Army and Tatra Trucks, they benefit massively from the upgrade. Just recently there were reports of another order worth almost EUR 300 million for artillery ammunition. The backlog is *theoretically* gigantic.

3 **"Analysts see over 100% potential":** **Correct** Based on the fundamental earnings estimates and the issue price, the price targets of many analysts are again in the EUR 34.00 to EUR 35.00 range. From the current EUR 16 level, that would be a double.

### So why is the share price plummeting so brutally? (The ice-cold risks)
If everything is so rosy, why is the money fleeing? Here comes the reality beyond the nice analyst targets:

**1. The Prospectus and Order Scandal (The main trigger):**
Investigative journalists (including the Dutch "Follow the Money" and Slovakian networks) have massively questioned CSG's fabled order book. The accusation: CSG has heavily embellished contracts - such as gigantic framework agreements with the Slovakian Ministry of Defense allegedly worth 60 billion euros - in order to dazzle investors for the IPO. Many of these contracts are declarations of intent for which it is completely unclear whether they will ever be called upon. In addition, it is highly doubtful that CSG would even have the production capacity to handle such volumes. For a newly listed company, doubts about the IPO prospectus are an absolute death sentence for the share price in the short term.

**2. loss of confidence among institutional investors:**
When questions about transparency and corporate governance arise (CSG is owned by Czech billionaire Michal Strnad), large institutional funds immediately pull the ripcord. They don't ask questions, they sell.

**3rd sector pressure:**
At the end of April / beginning of May 2026, the entire European defense industry (including Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, Renk) experienced profit-taking and noticeable setbacks. In such a weak market environment, a battered share like CSG is punished twice over.

### The opportunities (what speaks for the share)
* **Valuation:** When the smoke clears, the scandal allegations are partially refuted and CSG processes the *real*, fixed orders profitably, the share is fundamentally very favorably valued at the current level.

**Geopolitical tailwind:** The fundamental story of European armament remains intact. CSG's products (ammunition, land vehicles) will be urgently needed for years to come.

### Mr. Prompt's clear conclusion
CSG N.V. is currently a classic **"fallen knife "**.

The share is not plummeting for no reason. The market is currently pricing in a massive confidence and governance risk, because there are accusations that the bulging order books are largely just "hot air" and framework agreements without hard purchase commitments. The analysts' >100% potential is pure Excel theory; however, the market is dealing with reality and uncertainty.
**My recommendation:** Stay away until the management has cleared the air and a clear technical bottom has formed. Anyone who gets involved now is playing fireman in a burning house. This is currently not a value investment, but an absolute gambler's bet that the investigative reports were exaggerated.

•

asset_sage_2025@asset_sage_2025

1Semana

I've been at it since 30
Didn't think it would come down like this.
Hope for a change of direction 😜

•

GerneralRed@GeneralRed

I'm also still invested and hoping for the best 😁

•

Keineui@Keineui

What do our promoters say about this? A P/E ratio of less than 3 looks like there is little to go wrong at the moment. @Raketentoni @Aktienhauptmeister ?

•

Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@Keineui I happened to check for myself yesterday, here's the answer:

**Moin! Mr. Prompt has fired up the AOK X-rays internally for you** ☕

No templates, no hallucinations, just the stone-cold facts about **CSG N.V. (ISIN: NL0015073TS8)**, also known as Czechoslovak Group.

You made three assertions and I checked them against the latest market data as of today (early May 2026).

**The fact check of your statements:**
1. **"Lost mightily since IPO":** **Correct.** CSG went public in Amsterdam at the end of January 2026 at EUR 25.00. It was one of the largest defense IPOs in Europe. Today (as of May 4, 2026), the share is trading at around EUR 15.60 to EUR 16.00. That is a brutal fall of almost 40% in just over three months. One all-time low chases the next.

2. **"Order books full":** **Correct** As Europe's second largest manufacturer of large caliber ammunition and owner of Excalibur Army and Tatra Trucks, they benefit massively from the upgrade. Just recently there were reports of another order worth almost EUR 300 million for artillery ammunition. The backlog is *theoretically* gigantic.

3 **"Analysts see over 100% potential":** **Correct** Based on the fundamental earnings estimates and the issue price, the price targets of many analysts are again in the EUR 34.00 to EUR 35.00 range. From the current EUR 16 level, that would be a double.

### So why is the share price plummeting so brutally? (The ice-cold risks)
If everything is so rosy, why is the money fleeing? Here comes the reality beyond the nice analyst targets:

**1. The prospectus and order scandal (The main trigger):**
Investigative journalists (including the Dutch "Follow the Money" and Slovakian networks) have massively questioned CSG's fabled order book. The accusation: CSG has heavily embellished contracts - such as gigantic framework agreements with the Slovakian Ministry of Defense allegedly worth 60 billion euros - in order to dazzle investors for the IPO. Many of these contracts are declarations of intent for which it is completely unclear whether they will ever be called upon. In addition, it is highly doubtful that CSG would even have the production capacity to handle such volumes. For a newly listed company, doubts about the IPO prospectus are an absolute death sentence for the share price in the short term.

**2. loss of confidence among institutional investors:**
When questions about transparency and corporate governance arise (CSG is owned by Czech billionaire Michal Strnad), large institutional funds immediately pull the ripcord. They don't ask questions, they sell.

**3rd sector pressure:**
At the end of April / beginning of May 2026, the entire European defense industry (including Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, Renk) experienced profit-taking and noticeable setbacks. In such a weak market environment, a battered share like CSG is punished twice over.

### The opportunities (what speaks for the share)
* **Valuation:** When the smoke clears, the scandal allegations are partially refuted and CSG processes the *real*, fixed orders profitably, the share is fundamentally very favorably valued at the current level.

**Geopolitical tailwind:** The fundamental story of European armament remains intact. CSG's products (ammunition, land vehicles) will be urgently needed for years to come.

### Mr. Prompt's clear conclusion
CSG N.V. is currently a classic **"fallen knife "**.

The share is not plummeting for no reason. The market is currently pricing in a massive confidence and governance risk, because there are accusations that the bulging order books are largely just "hot air" and framework agreements without hard purchase commitments. The analysts' >100% potential is pure Excel theory, but the market is dealing with reality and uncertainty.
**My recommendation:** Stay away until the management has cleared the air and a clear technical bottom has formed. Anyone who gets involved now is playing fireman in a burning house. This is currently not a value investment, but an absolute gambler's bet that the investigative reports were exaggerated.

•

Keineui@Keineui

@Raketentoni top quality as always, thank you!

•