Detailed stock analysis of Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-2,25%)
& the competition
1. sales shares and margins by product (Q3 2024)
1.1 GLP-1-based diabetes treatments: Ozempic and Rybelsus
-Revenue share: DKK 34.94 billion (~49% of total revenue).
-Growth: +15 % YoY at constant exchange rates.
-Product characteristics:
- These drugs belong to the group of GLP-1 receptor agonists. They regulate blood glucose levels, promote insulin release and contribute to weight management.
- Ozempic in particular is a world-leading drug for type 2 diabetes and is increasingly prescribed off-label for weight loss.
- Rybelsus offers the advantage of being available as an oral GLP-1 therapy, which improves compliance.
-Margin: Profitability is exceptionally high due to high prices and increasing demand in emerging and developed markets.
1.2 Obesity therapies: Wegovy
-Revenue share: DKK 18.8 billion (~26% of total revenue).
-Growth: +55% YoY at constant exchange rates; fastest growing segment.
-Product characteristics:
- Wegovy is based on semaglutide and, according to studies, has the potential to reduce weight by up to 20 %. This significantly reduces the risk of secondary diseases such as cardiovascular disease.
- The market for obesity is growing rapidly as obesity is increasingly recognized as a disease.
-Margin: Very high as Wegovy is an innovative therapy and has limited competition.
1.3 Insulins: Tresiba, Levemir and NovoRapid
-Sales share: DKK 12.51 billion (~18% of total sales).
-Growth: +10 % YoY.
-Product characteristics:
- Tresiba (long-acting), Levemir and NovoRapid (short-acting) cover all needs of type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients.
- Despite growing competition from biosimilars, Novo Nordisk remains the market leader.
-Margin: Stable, but lower than for GLP-1 therapies.
1.4 Rare diseases (e.g. haemophilia, sickle cell disease)
-Revenue share: DKK 4.57 billion (~6 % of total sales).
-Growth: +17 % YoY.
-Product characteristics:
-Mim8 addresses hemophilia A and is safe and well tolerated.
-Etavopivatcurrently in phase 3, has the potential to significantly improve the quality of life of sickle cell patients.
-Margin: Very high, as therapies for rare diseases can often command premium prices.
2. target groups and diseases in focus
2.1 Diabetes mellitus (type 1 and type 2)
-Epidemiology:
- Worldwide: 537 million people (2023).
- Forecast: 783 million by 2045 (International Diabetes Federation).
-Products:
- GLP-1 receptor agonists are the drug of choice for type 2 diabetes, especially Ozempic.
- Insulins remain essential for type 1 diabetes.
-Target groups:
- Type 2 diabetics (90 % of cases). Especially patients in industrialized nations such as the USA, where the prevalence of obesity and diabetes is increasing.
2.2 Obesity
-Epidemiology:
- Over 800 million people worldwide; forecast: 1 billion by 2030 (WHO).
-Products:
- Wegovy is the market leader and shows weight reductions of 15-20% in clinical studies.
-Target groups:
- Patients with obesity or overweight, particularly in affluent countries with a high average BMI.
2.3 Rare diseases
-Epidemiology:
- Haemophilia A: 400,000 people affected worldwide.
- Sickle cell disease: Over 6 million people affected, mainly in Africa.
-Products:
- Therapies such as Mim8 and Etavopivat cover important therapeutic gaps.
3 Competitor analysis
3.1 Eli Lilly $LLY (-3,56%)
-Mounjaro (tirzepatide):
- Dual agonist (GLP-1/GIP) that is very effective for both diabetes and obesity.
- Studies show weight losses of 20-25%, which positions Mounjaro as a direct competitor to Wegovy and Ozempic.
-Long-term strengths:
- Eli Lilly has a strong pipeline and plans to launch several new products over the next few years.
3.2 Pfizer and Amgen $PFE (-2,63%)
$AMGN (-0,11%)
-Pfizer: Oral GLP-1 therapies could compete with Rybelsus.
-Amgen: Research focus on innovative obesity drugs such as AMG 133.
3.3 Sanofi (insulin market) $SAN (+0,84%)
-Strengths: Strong position in the global insulin market.
-Weaknesses: Declining sales due to the market shift towards GLP-1 therapies.
4. financial strength and margins
Sales (Q3 2024)71.31 bn.
-Gross margin: 84,6 % (Q3 2024).
-Operating profit: DKK 33.8 billion (+21% compared to the previous year)
-Future potential: Sales in the obesity segment are expected to continue to dominate growth, particularly due to increasing acceptance and introduction of new drugs such as CagriSema.
Novo Nordisk will remain the long-term leader, although the competition (especially Eli Lilly) is becoming increasingly innovative. The combination of market leadership, product innovation and financial strength secures Novo Nordisk a key role in the global healthcare market.
