Since 1927, the S&P 500 has fallen by -1.62% on average 58% of the time in September, the first year of the US presidential cycle.
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
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ISIN: IE00B3XXRP09
Ticker: VUSA
IE00B3XXRP09
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148
1Semana·
The choice between crypto and the expensive S&P500
Investors today face a striking dilemma. The S&P500, once the epitome of broad diversification, is now dominated by a small number of AI tech giants. Their share prices have risen so much that the index has almost become a mirror image of a handful of expensive companies. The risk of that is clear: if one of those giants stumbles, the whole market feels the blow. In contrast is the largest cryptocurrency.
Despite fluctuations, it offers momentum that is less dependent on a single cluster of companies.
Whereas the S&P500 floats on overconcentrated and pricey expectations, crypto actually seems to promise more room for new capital flows and growth. For those looking ahead, that's a compelling argument.
$VOO (+0,04%)
$VUSA (+0,91%)
$BTC (+0,51%)
$XRP (-0,4%)
$ETH (-0,17%)
$SOL (-0,41%)
$MSTR (-1%)
$BMNR (-4,97%)
$MARA (-4,12%)
$IBIT
$IB1T (-1,32%)
$ETHA
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5 ComentáriosShawn N.@fund_commander_spcln
1Semana
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Mostrar resposta
2Semana·
Aug 21 / Not Many More Left on the Watchlist
I genuinely hope something happens in the next few days, otherwise I’ll have to give my thoughts on the entire S&P 500. These daily posts were supposed to include a macro story, plus a buy/sell or addition to the watchlist – not just that exclusively. Yeah, didn’t really work out that way.
Though, I assume that after tomorrow’s speech by Jerome Powell, we’ll finally have a new topic.
FICO ( $FICO (-0,02%)
) – The King of Credit Scores
FICO might not be as well known as the stars of the market like Nvidia or Microsoft, but it’s just as important for keeping the system running. Roughly 90% of top U.S. lenders use the company’s credit scores when making lending decisions. That’s an incredible moat: banks, credit card issuers, and mortgage providers are effectively locked into FICO’s system.
What makes FICO so compelling is that it combines two strengths. First, its legacy scoring model, which is almost impossible to displace. Second, its growing analytics/software segment, which helps financial institutions with risk management and fraud detection. This second part of the business is often overlooked but has strong growth potential, especially as AI reshapes how banks evaluate customers and manage risk.
The company doesn’t grow like a high-flying tech stock, but it delivers steady, predictable earnings with pricing power – and that’s gold in today’s market.
The main concern, of course, is valuation. Even after the recent selloff, FICO trades at a forward P/E north of 50. And the drawdown didn’t happen in a vacuum. Management’s aggressive pricing strategies drew the attention of regulators – an unforced error. Still, when you consider the irreplaceable role FICO plays, the premium is at least somewhat justified.
For me, it’s not a buy right now. But if we ever move closer to $1000 a share, or a forward P/E of 30, I’d reconsider. For the moment, I’m quite content with my Equifax position, which operates in an adjacent space.
Meta ( $META (+1,65%)
) – Not Just Facebook Anymore
What started out of a Harvard dorm room has turned into one of the most dominant success stories in social media. Mark Zuckerberg – the nerd turned free speech warrior – made this rise possible. His vision, together with a strong team, led to several highly successful acquisitions that were integrated seamlessly.
The two crown jewels of the “Metaverse,” WhatsApp and Instagram, weren’t built by Zuckerberg himself. They were bought. And today, they stand among the most successful acquisitions in business history. Very few companies can point to such a track record. Facebook – the company that began the journey – is pretty much dead now. Even among seniors, it isn’t what it once was. But that doesn’t matter much anymore, because Meta has become so much more.
Of course, the company has faced plenty of criticism over the years: scandals, regulatory pressure, and the huge bet on the metaverse. That last one even caused the stock to collapse so far in 2022 that not even Tom Lee could have stayed bullish. But it rebounded. The strategy paid off. And Meta now reports one record quarter after the next. Hands down, this is one of the best-managed and widest-moat companies worldwide.
There is no world where WhatsApp or Instagram are replaced. New challengers like TikTok haven’t dented Meta’s dominance. If anything, the platforms are more entrenched than ever.
Recently, the company has made headlines by hiring away the competition. Meta offered packages worth $100 million to the crème de la crème of AI engineers, poaching talent from top firms – including OpenAI. Zuckerberg is building an All-Star team. Let’s see what they can deliver.
I’m extremely bullish on the company, though after such a strong run I’d expect a pullback. If that happens, I’ll be the first to start building up a position again.
$NVDA (+0,76%)
$MSFT (+1,01%)
$EFX (+1,47%)
$LYPS (+0,94%)
$CSPX (+0,91%)
$VUSA (+0,91%)
55
3 Comentários1Semana
Honestly idc, i like Meta a lot, the price is fair, I'm buying a little, I don't know if and when there will be the correction and I don't want to lose all the upside that the stock can deliver, which I believe is a lot
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2Semana·
Realty Income out - S&P 500 in 🇺🇸🌎
🔄 Depot update
Today I sold my Realty Income shares (102 shares at ~€5,102). 📉
Reason: At my young age, I want to focus more on growth - and Realty just hasn't been convincing lately.
💡 Instead, I put the entire proceeds directly into the Vanguard S&P 500 (VUSA) (48 shares at ~€5,025). 🚀
Currently the better choice for me: broadly diversified, solid companies, more growth potential.
I'm curious to see what effect the reallocation will have in the long term - compound interest continues to work diligently. 💪📈
👉 Question to the community: Would you prefer growth (e.g. S&P 500) in your younger years or would you continue to focus on dividend stocks like Realty?
2626
25 Comentários
2Semana
In my opinion, it is not far-sighted to call the stock a portfolio corpse. It is one of the few stocks that should be part of a proper portfolio as a core stock, alongside Stag Industrial, Hercules Capital and Brookfield renewables. In my opinion...
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77
•2Semana·
US customs revenues on the rise
Customs revenue in the USA is rising rapidly and reached a new monthly record of 28 billion US dollars in July - almost four times as much as in January.
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19 Comentários
US importers pay the customs duties at the customs office. And ultimately the consumers foot the bill, don't they?
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3Semana·
Cathie Woods ARK ETFs make large purchases at The Trade Desk and sell block position
Cathie Wood's ARK ETFs once again saw significant transactions on Tuesday, August 12, 2025, with a focus on technology and biotech stocks. The largest transaction of the day was the purchase of 738,367 shares of The Trade Desk Inc ( $TTD (-3,3%) ) with a total value of $39,266,357. This move underscores ARK's continued confidence in the digital advertising platform, where the fund had already significantly increased its positions in recent days.
Another notable transaction involved Block Inc ( $SQ (+0,33%) ), formerly known as Square. Here ARK sold 215,543 shares, representing a sizable value of $15,741,105. This sale represents one of the larger divestitures of the day and could indicate a strategic realignment of ARK's position towards the financial services and digital payments company.
ARK also made a significant purchase of 643,406 shares of Pinterest Inc ( $PINS ) worth $21,998,051. The social media company has repeatedly been in ARK's focus in the past, as evidenced by the continuous purchases over the past week. This trend points to a bullish assessment of Pinterest's growth prospects on the part of ARK.
In the biotech sector, ARK's ARK ETF purchased 128,896 shares of CRISPR Therapeutics AG ( $CRSP (-0,22%) ) for a total value of $714,567, continuing its investment in the gene-editing company. On the flip side, various ARK ETFs divested shares of DraftKings Inc ( $DKNG (-0,93%) ), Guardant Health Inc ( $GH (-4,93%) ), Robinhood Markets Inc ($HOOD (+2,2%) ), Palantir Technologies Inc ($PLTR (+0,74%) ), Roblox Corp ( $RBLX ) and Shopify Inc ($SHOP (+3,49%) ). The largest sell-off was DraftKings, with 221,203 shares worth $9,452,004 sold.
Other notable buys included Exact Sciences Corp ( $EXAS (+3,03%) ) and Personalis Inc ( $PSNL (+6,07%) ). ARK bought 93,753 and 134,035 shares worth $3,835,435 and $603,157 respectively. The continued purchases in these stocks could indicate a focused strategy targeting innovative healthcare companies.
Smaller transactions were also part of the day's activity. ARK bought shares in Compass Pathways PLC ( $CMPS (+9,11%) ) and 10X Genomics Inc ( $TXG (+1,84%) ). Despite the smaller dollar amounts, these purchases could be part of a long-term strategy that focuses on up-and-coming companies in the respective sectors.
Some of dear Cathie's transactions don't need to be understood but well, the young lady's returns speak for themselves.
$ARKK (+0,64%) and $ARKF (+0,56%) over 70% return since 365 days, I can only shine with +27% with my portfolio.
I will remain invested in $TTD (-3,3%) My current portfolio has a lot of risk, as I have generated some cash.
At the moment I'm considering whether I should possibly $HMWO (+0,85%) and $EQQQ (+1,09%) or just the $VUSA (+0,91%) into the portfolio.
Temporarily sold $AMD (-0,04%) +35%, $HIMS (+8,14%) +15%, $DOCN (+0,11%) +9%.
I would re-enter Hims and AMD at certain prices and possibly add other companies to the portfolio if they fit my selection.
My positions:
On the watchlist
3Semana·
S&P 500: 16th all-time high in 2025 - despite tariffs and macro-political tensions
The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high, the 16th this year. This follows 57 all-time highs in 2024, the fifth best result of all time.
Momentum is positive: strong earnings season and high probability of interest rate cuts at the next Fed meeting in September.
What do you think? Will there be more to come by the end of the year or is that it for now with new all-time highs?
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2 ComentáriosThe current "all-time highs" are only due to the weak dollar. If you convert the market capitalization of the S&P into other currencies (or e.g. gold), the S&P has still fallen YTD.
If the Fed decides to cut interest rates (which currently looks likely), the dollar would strengthen again and thus the S&P (in $) would fall.
Therefore, I do not currently expect further AZHs
If the Fed decides to cut interest rates (which currently looks likely), the dollar would strengthen again and thus the S&P (in $) would fall.
Therefore, I do not currently expect further AZHs
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3Semana·
I wanted to add
Wanted to add $WINC (+0,63%) .. any suggestions ?I have $VUSA (+0,91%) , but was intrigued by it's 10% dividend.
Maybe keep $VUSA as my Prime and WINC as a satellite?
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4 Comentários
3Semana
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1Mês·
S&P 500: It's time to buckle up in August. Or will it be different this time?
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9 Comentários
1Mês
I liquidated my $CL2 in the 2XSPYTIPS portfolio at the beginning of the week. It's against the rules, but market technology, sentiment, macro environment and seasonality are all at the upper limit and pointing south.
I'll be back at the end of October, beginning of November. Let's see if the timing pays off. In any case, I can then take a quieter vacation and enjoy the summer. 👍 🌞
I'll be back at the end of October, beginning of November. Let's see if the timing pays off. In any case, I can then take a quieter vacation and enjoy the summer. 👍 🌞
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