I think the hours of war are numbered in Iran.

Even if Trump presents himself as the biggest winner, I would argue that he has been put in his place in the eyes of the world! The incentive for Iran to have a nuclear weapon is greater than ever before and the global pressure for cheap energy is too high for a president, even if he is the Greatest President Of All Time!

If things finally calm down again, we will soon see $BRNT (+0,91%)
$CRUD (+1,08%)
$3BRL (+3,79%) soon well below 100$ again ... $CSPX (+0,16%)
$VUSA (+0,17%)
$VUAG (+0,19%)
$CSNDX (+0,2%)
$IWDA (+0,13%)
$BTC (-0,27%)
$IGLN (+1,69%)

TLDR: Long, but with even more metrics. 😊

February may be the shortest month of the year, but there are no short breaks when it comes to building wealth. While Father Frost came knocking again outside before early spring, I used the time to push ahead with my plans. After the imperfect start in January, this month was all about one thing: sticking with it! Whether it was braving the cold on an evening run, lifting weights, shooting new videos or creating new Carousel posts (even in wooden class on the train), or looking at my depot. Time and time again, it turns out that consistency is one of the keys to success. When discipline is developed, automation runs like clockwork and frees my mind for new ideas and projects related to financial freedom.

While I was enjoying my frugal vacation in MV, it rained not only water but also dividends from the sky as the thaw set in. Do you want to know what's been happening in the engine room of my portfolio and are you interested in a whole new set of metrics for my passive income?

Then it's time for a nice look back, because the bad weather is really getting on my nerves.

DISCLAIMER/RISK WARNING

Please remember that this article is for entertainment purposes only. At no point is it a buy or sell recommendation or professional legal, tax or investment advice. Don't just copy anything I do. I am merely describing what is happening in my portfolios, but in no way guarantee that it is up-to-date, correct or complete.

Investing in the capital market is always associated with risks such as loss of invested capital, price fluctuations, liquidation risks or market risks. In accordance with the current guidelines of ESMA and BaFin, I expressly point out that this review serves exclusively to document my personal investment strategy and does not constitute investment advice within the meaning of the WpIG. The securities presented by me are expressly not to be understood as investment advicebut are merely components of my personal portfolio at the time of reporting. Please also bear in mind that there is a conflict of interest, as I naturally hold the securities myself.

If necessary, seek professional advice and do your own research.

Overall performance

I would like to repeat a fact from my last review. Automation is king. When everything runs by itself, you have room in your head for the finer things in life. Or to do the right thing. More on that at the end.

My key performance indicators for my overall portfolio at a glance:

• TTWROR (month under review): +3.47 % (previous month: +1.64 %)
• TTWROR (since inception): +88,49 %
• IZF (month under review): +55.90 % (previous month: +21.13 %)
• IZF (since inception): +12,50 %
• Delta: +3,172.19 €
• Absolute change: € +4,396.52

Data shown as "since start" is valid since 31.05.2020

Performance & volume

My class leader $AVGO (+0,19%) loses some weight in the portfolio, but remains in first place in terms of volume and performance. The stock has been running very hot recently. Perhaps the semiconductor market is currently undergoing a rotation to $NVDA (+1,86%) taking place? The tech sector is also falling $GOOGL (+0,38%) somewhat, as they have announced high investments. On the other hand $WMT (-0,17%) continues to grow nicely.

In terms of volume, the $BAC (+0,41%) is now out of my top 5. $FAST (+0,38%) The screw manufacturer was already in my top 5 once before and doesn't need to be asked twice.

Also $FDX (-0,26%) also climbs back into my top 5. The logistics giant had a strong performance in February. Maybe it has to do with the tariff-refund issue or a sector rotation from tech to industrials? They are also spinning off their freight division, further fueling cost-cutting fantasies. That means more cash flow for the "purple ones".

If I take a look at my weakest performers, I notice that the minus at $TGT (+0,25%) continues to improve. I'm particularly pleased about this, as I always put a little more money in the savings plans for this stock in times of hunger. On the other hand $NOVO B (-1,42%) continues to fall. At -43 %, they set a new negative record in my portfolio. This shows how intense the competition with $LLY (+0,16%) has become in the meantime.

Largest individual share positions by volume in the overall portfolio:

Share ( %) of the total portfolio (and associated securities account):

$AVGO (+0,19%) 2.59 % (main share portfolio)

$WMT (-0,17%) 1.87 % (main share portfolio)

$FAST (+0,38%) 1.45 % (main share portfolio)

$GOOGL (+0,38%) 1.40 % (main share portfolio)

$FDX (-0,26%) 1.31 % (main share portfolio)

Smallest individual share positions by volume in the overall portfolio:

Share ( %) of the total portfolio (and associated securities account):

$NOVO B (-1,42%) : 0.35 % (main share portfolio)

$GIS (+0,22%) 0.51 % (main share portfolio)

$HTGC (-0,41%) 5.53 % (main share portfolio)

$BATS (+0,25%) 0.55 % (crypto follow-on deposit)

$CPB (+0,11%) 0.56 % (main share portfolio)

Top-performing individual stocks

Shares with performance since initial purchase ( %) (and the respective portfolio):

$AVGO (+0,19%) : +277 % (main share portfolio)

$WMT (-0,17%) : +112 % (main share portfolio)

$GOOGL (+0,38%) +106 % (main share portfolio)

$NFLX (-0,14%) +95 % (main share portfolio)

$OHI (+0,21%) +88 % (main share portfolio)

Flop performer individual stocks

Shares with performance since initial purchase ( %) (and the respective portfolio):

$TGT (+0,25%) : -20 % (main stock portfolio)

$CPB (+0,11%) : -30 % (main share portfolio)

$NKE (+0,24%) -34 % (main share portfolio)

$GIS (+0,22%) -35 % (main share portfolio)

$NOVO B (-1,42%) -43 % (main share portfolio)

Sector allocation of my individual stocks [NEW!]

My top 6 sectors are:

Consumer goods: 18.19%

Miscellaneous: 16.78 %

Technology: 11.92 % [without information technology]

Financials: 11.24

Transportation: 9.61

Trade: 7.13 %

Asset allocation

Equities and ETFs currently determine my asset allocation.

ETFs: 42.0 %

Equities: 58.0

Investments and subsequent purchases

I have invested the following amounts in savings plans:

Planned savings plan amount from the fixed net salary: € 1,040

Savings ratio of savings plans to fixed net salary: 48.80

Planned savings plan amount from the fixed net salary, incl. reinvested dividends according to plan size: € 1,060

In addition, there were the following additional investments from returns, refunds, cashback, etc. as one-off savings plans/repurchases:

Subsequent purchases/one-off savings plans as cashback annuities from refunds: € 55.00

Subsequent purchases/one-off savings plans as a cashback annuity from bonuses: € 39.97

Subsequent purchases from other surpluses: € 0.00

Repurchases from dissolved tax reserve: € 107.98

Automatically reinvested dividends by the broker: € 2.51 (function is only activated for an old custody account, as I otherwise prefer to control the reinvestment myself)

In the month under review, only the fixed savings plans were executed.

Number of unscheduled additional purchases: 4

Passive income from dividends and ETF distributions

Passive income in the month under review

I received € 101.65 in distributions in the month under review (€ 97.31 in the same month of the previous year). This corresponds to a change of +4.46 % compared to the same month of the previous year. Two distributions will fall in the following month, which is reflected in the low to moderate distribution growth YoY.

Number of dividend payments and ETF distributions: 21

Number of payment days: 10 days

Average dividend per payment: € 4.84

average dividend per payday: € 10.17

Passive income YTD [NEW!]

YTD I have received distributions in the amount of € 274.37. If you put this in relation to my annual dividend target of € 2,100, the target achievement of the distribution is 13.07% (target 16.67%). This means that I am just below the target, but this will be turned around by the coming March, which has a higher payout.

The three calculation methods result in the following distribution yields:

YTD distribution yields: 0.31 %

Distribution yields since inception: 4.71 %

Distribution yields YoY: 2.25 %

This means that my overall portfolio has already paid me back around 5% of my initial investment, less than half a percent this year and over 2% within a year. This reflects the comparatively young age of the investment.

The distribution yield grew by 0.89 % YoY. Not a big jump, but a sign of calm, steady dividend growth. The money is working more efficiently than a year ago.

My top payers

The top 5 payers in the month under review were:

$OHI (+0,21%)

$ZPRG (+0,36%)

$JEPQ (-0,08%)

$BATS (+0,25%)

$ABBV (-0,16%)

FIRE number [NEW!]

I calculate my FIRE figure from the rolling 12-month expenses (TTM) multiplied by a factor of 25. Even if I don't want to sell any shares later, I use this reciprocal value of the classic 4% withdrawal rate as a conservative guide.

With my current 12-month expenditure of €12,226.88, this results in a FIRE figure of €305,672.00. This is the minimum volume that my portfolio would have to reach in order to theoretically cover my expenses with a 4% withdrawal.

Of course, this figure fluctuates with my lifestyle. But it is not the only metric to determine how long my assets would last in an emergency.

Spending range (runway) [NEW!]

Another method for determining how long I can manage to cover my expenses from my assets is the rolling spending rangealso known as runway also known as the runway. On an annual basis, this is currently 7.49 years or the equivalent of around 89.9 months. Compared to the previous month, it has increased by 0.33 years years. So I am effectively about four months longer "free".

Compared to the same month last year, the increase is even 1.92 years. Although this figure could be even higher, the setbacks caused by the economic policy uncertainties in the TTM period are dampening the trend somewhat. I am still 17.51 years away from my runway target (25 years), which corresponds to the FIRE multiplier. 17.51 years away. This makes it clear that, despite the great progress I have made, I am still at the beginning of my path to complete financial freedom.

The runway stability of -0.22 indicates that my range is currently fluctuating slightly and is not yet stable in an absolutely steady upward trend. A negative value here indicates that the volatility of capital or short-term spending spikes in the rolling period are still slowing down the continuity of growth somewhat.

Performance comparison: portfolio vs. benchmarks

To see where I really stand, I regularly compare my portfolio with the major market ETFs. This allows me to see immediately how well my performance (TTWROR) has done in the current month and since the start compared to the overall market.

My portfolio: +3.47 % (since I started: +88.49 %)

$VWRL (+0,15%) +1.79 % (since my start: 68.46 %)

$VUSA (+0,17%) -0.32 % (since my start: 56.83 %)

$IMEU (+0,59%) +3.92 % (since I started: 84.27 %)

As in the previous month, things are continuing to go up for me, while the USA is faltering. 🤗

Data marked with "since my start" is valid since 31.05.2020.

Key risk figures

Here are my key risk figures for the reporting month:

Maximum drawdown:

since inception: 17.17

Month under review: 0.87

Maximum drawdown duration:

since inception: 702 days

Month under review: 14 days

Volatility:

since inception: 28.36

Month under review: 2.02

Sharpe Ratio:

since inception: 0.41

in the month under review: 27.72

Semi-volatility:

since inception: 21.07

month under review: 1.48

The maximum drawdown of 702 days since the beginning still reminds me of the intensive phase between 2022 and 2023 before the big recovery began. In February, the drawdown was absolutely negligible at just 0.87 %. This clearly shows how stable my portfolio currently was in the icy wind.

My Sharpe ratio is particularly striking this month, having shot up to 27.72. Even if this is of course an upward statistical outlier, it reflects the extremely positive performance combined with very low volatility. Since the beginning, the Sharpe ratio has been a solid 0.41. This means that for every unit of risk, I continuously collect returns above the risk-free interest rate.

Volatility in February was extremely low at 2.02% compared to the 28.36% since the beginning. Even the semi-volatility was only 1.48 %. For me, this is a clear signal: although my portfolio fluctuates minimally, the actual risk of loss remains at a very low level.

What is the conclusion for this month? The confirmation of my strategy: think long-term, let the automation run like clockwork and use the time for new projects. February was a month of stability and growth. This is exactly how it should continue!

Outlook

After setting the course in February, March will be a month of implementation. The provisions for the advance lump sum have already been successfully transferred to the markets. I will transfer a small refund still to be expected to the markets in March, and perhaps I will also be able to look forward to another bonus, which will also be invested. If you want to know which individual stocks are particularly in focus this month, then stay tuned! 😊

When it comes to AI, I will of course keep my finger on the pulse. NotebookLM in conjunction with Gemini has become an absolute game changer for me. It's easy to create a clickable dashboard from prepaid sources that come together in a table, turn your own monthly statement into an audio DeepDive, or get to know completely new metrics that are wonderfully explained. There's still so much to discover when it comes to AI and this forward momentum drives me to make the most of the new technical possibilities and further automate my workflows.

As in the previous month, I'll end this review with a political topic that doesn't really belong here. Nevertheless, I would like to use my small reach to draw attention to an important event. In February, there was an impressive mass demonstration by Iranians in Munich. It was absolutely peaceful. The participants collected their garbage and played our anthem out of gratitude and humility. They thanked the police, not only with words but also with roses. There were no riots and no damage to property. That is absolutely impressive and I think you appreciate that as much as I do.

The word free appears in my branding. Even if it's in a different context there, this little word is my personal concern this month. We can be glad that the exiled Iranians live with us. They and the suffering of their compatriots remind us time and again how infinitely valuable our Western values of freedom, self-determination and democracy are.

In Iran, we are experiencing people who want so much to simply live in freedom like us. Free from religious oppression, free from violence and free from the indoctrination of hatred and terror. They want this so much that they even ask for intervention from the Americans and Israelis and advocate attacks on the regime's positions in their homeland. We have to understand that for them, the rocket fire and bombing is a much lesser evil than having to live in this Islamist hell for even one more day. We must understand that our Western values cannot be taken for granted and that we must take a stand now. An attitude towards our values and an attitude towards those who long for the end of this dictatorship. That is my most important learning for the past month.

I wish the people of Iran, who are still risking everything, that they will finally be freed from this criminal regime. They should finally get to know what is so commonplace for us: democracy, human rights (especially women's rights) and, quite simply, freedom. They deserve it after 47 years of oppression, violence and terror. I sincerely wish them all the best and all the happiness in the world on their path to peace and self-determination. 🍀

Thank you for reading. And now let's start the spring march! ☀️

👉 My related Carousel posts for the review will be published as follows.

08.03.2026: Portfolio review (Key performance indicators, share performance, allocation, sectors, additional purchases and performance comparisons)

09.03.2026: Budget review (income, expenditure, cash flow, ratios, budget compliance and citizen's income check)

10.03.2026: Cash flow review [NEW!] (general, YTD and actual vs. target comparison for passive income, my top spenders, FIRE figure and capital reach)

📲 There are also currently three posts a week: @frugalfreisein. Instagram reels and YouTube shorts currently appear irregularly under channels of the same name, the same applies to videos.

Please pay close attention to the spelling of my alias. Unfortunately, there are too many fake and phishing accounts on social media. I have already been "copied" several times.

👉 How do you personally feel the stock market year has started? (No investment advice!)

The new year got off to a slow start for me. The turn of the year somehow passed me by this time. It wasn't until mid-January that I felt I had arrived in the new year.

But then things got moving: During the first of two hikes through wintry Saxon Switzerland, it occurred to me that there was still something on my to-do list. I just wanted to start making videos again. Whether reels, shorts or entire YouTube videos. That was on my list. And as I climbed the Lilienstein at 8 a.m. on a cold January Saturday, I simply picked up my cell phone and shared my thoughts. But one thing was not enough. During my tours over snow and icy paths and ascents from the Schrammsteine to the Bastei, there were more shots. I finally left my comfort zone again and started the next project on my list. I simply started imperfectly instead of continuing to put off perfection.

Everything continued to run automatically in the background, thanks to automation and savings plans. This time with a small strategic adjustment. Additional funds were not invested, but held back for the taxation of the advance lump sum. The tax-free amounts were just enough, so there will be plenty of additional investments next month.

And now enough preamble, time for a look back.

DISCLAIMER/RISK WARNING

Please remember that this article is for entertainment purposes only. At no point is it a buy or sell recommendation or professional legal, tax or investment advice. Don't just copy anything I do. I am merely describing what is happening in my portfolios, but in no way guarantee that it is up-to-date, correct or complete.

Investing in the capital market is always associated with risks such as loss of invested capital, price fluctuations, liquidation risks or market risks. In accordance with the current guidelines of ESMA and BaFin, I expressly point out that this review serves exclusively to document my personal investment strategy and does not constitute investment advice within the meaning of Section 2 (8) WpIG. The securities presented by me are expressly not to be understood as investment advicebut are merely components of my personal portfolio at the time of reporting.

Overall performance

We all know and appreciate the magic of automation in our portfolios. Except for one thing, the entire news cycle passed me by in January. I'll come back to that at the end.

My key performance indicators for my overall portfolio at a glance:

• TTWROR (month under review): +1.64% (previous month: -0.46%)
• TTWROR (since inception): +84,34%
• IZF (month under review): +21.13% (previous month: -5.23%)
• IZF (since inception): +11,50%
• Delta: +1,461.07€
• Absolute change: +€2,572.29

Performance & Volume

My class leader $AVGO (+0,19%) continues to decline as a proportion of the portfolio volume and, as in the previous month $NFLX (-0,14%) with it. The latter even drops out of my top 5 largest individual positions. However, the tide is turning for the giant $GOOGL (+0,38%) . But this is not a recommendation to you! It's just what happened to me. The other positions in my top 5 ($WMT (-0,17%) , $BAC (+0,41%) and $FAST (+0,38%) are also not to be begged and continue to improve, also in terms of performance.

The five red lanterns naturally go to the same weakening candidates (in terms of performance). However, the minus points are finally getting smaller, particularly noticeable in the case of $NOVO B (-1,42%) . And also with $TGT (+0,25%) .

Largest individual share positions by volume in the overall portfolio:

Share (%) of the total portfolio (and associated securities account):

$AVGO (+0,19%) 2.56% (main share portfolio)

$WMT (-0,17%) 1.93% (main share portfolio)

$GOOGL (+0,38%) 1.55% (main share portfolio)

$FAST (+0,38%) 1.52% (main share portfolio)

$BAC (+0,41%) 1.45% (main share portfolio)

Smallest individual share positions by volume in the overall portfolio:

Share (%) of the total portfolio (and associated securities account):

$NOVO B (-1,42%) 0.45% (main share portfolio)

$BATS (+0,25%) 0.56% (main share portfolio)

$GIS (+0,22%) 0.56% (crypto follow-on deposit)

$MDLZ (-0,47%) 0.60% (main share portfolio)

$CPB (+0,11%) 0.61% (main share portfolio)

Top-performing individual stocks

Shares with performance since initial purchase (%) (and the respective portfolio):

$AVGO (+0,19%) : +294% (main share portfolio)

$GOOGL (+0,38%) +129% (main share portfolio)

$WMT (-0,17%) : +104% (main share portfolio)

$NFLX (-0,14%) : +77% (main share portfolio)

$BAC (+0,41%) +75% (main share portfolio)

Flop performer individual stocks

Shares with performance since initial purchase (%) (and the respective portfolio):

$GIS (+0,22%) : -35% (main stock portfolio)

$NKE (+0,24%) -34% (main share portfolio)

$CPB (+0,11%) : -30% (main share portfolio)

$TGT (+0,25%) -26% (main share portfolio)

$NOVO B (-1,42%) : -13% (main share portfolio)

Asset allocation

Equities and ETFs currently determine my asset allocation.

ETFs: 41.9%

Equities: 58.1%

Investments and additional purchases

I have invested the following sums in savings plans:

Planned savings plan amount from the fixed net salary: €1,040

Planned savings plan amount from the fixed net salary, incl. reinvested dividends according to plan size: € 1,060

Savings ratio of the savings plans to the fixed net salary: 50.07%

In addition, there were the following additional investments from returns, refunds, cashback, etc. as one-off savings plans/repurchases:

Subsequent purchases/one-off savings plans as cashback annuities from refunds: € 0.00

Subsequent purchases/one-off savings plans as cashback annuities from bonuses: € 0.00

Subsequent purchases from other surpluses: € 0.00

Automatically reinvested dividends by the broker: €3.54 (function is only activated for an old custody account, as I otherwise prefer to control the reinvestment myself)

In the month under review, only the fixed savings plans were executed.

Number of unscheduled additional purchases: 0

Passive income from dividends

I received € 172.72 in dividends (€ 98.60 in the same month last year). This corresponds to a change of +75.15% compared to the same month last year. The reason for the strong increase, in addition to normal dividend growth, is that the distributions from my three large Vanguard ETFs slipped over the turn of the year, which makes January look unusually strong. Adjusted for this effect, growth is in line with expectations.

Number of dividend payments: 24

Number of payment days: 12 days

Average dividend per payment: €7.20

average dividend per payday: € 14.39

The top three payers in the month under review were:

$VWRL (+0,15%)

$VHYL (+0,08%)

$ISPA (+0,53%)

My passive income from dividends (and some interest) mathematically covered 17.32% of my expenses in the month under review. For a rather weak month with medium-high expenses by my standards (due to the first annual bills), this is acceptable.

Performance comparison: portfolio vs. benchmarks

A comparison of my portfolio with two important ETFs shows the TTWROR in the current month (and since the beginning):

My portfolio: +1.64% (since I started: +84.34%)

$VWRL (+0,15%) +1.52% (since my start: 66.12%)

$VUSA (+0,17%) -0.26% (since my start: 63.76%)

After underperforming the ETFs last month, the tide has turned for the first month of the new year. 🤗

Key risk figures

Here are my key risk figures for the month under review:

Maximum drawdown:

since inception: 17.17%

Month under review: 2.06%

Maximum drawdown duration:

since inception:702 days

Month under review: 16+ days

Volatility:

since inception: 28.29%

Month under review: 2.28%

Sharpe Ratio:

since inception: 0.42

in the month under review: 9.26

Semi-volatility:

since inception: 21.01

Month under review: 1.36

The maximum drawdown of 702 days since the beginning is still reminiscent of the tough phase of 2022-2023 before the recovery began. In January itself, the decline was minimal at 2.06%, so a quiet start to the year, showing that no major dislocations were imminent.

My Sharpe ratio shot up to 9.26 in the month under review. This is an upward outlier that reflects the positive performance with low volatility. Since the beginning, it has been a solid 0.42. This means that for every unit of risk, I am achieving just under half a unit of return above the risk-free interest rate. Volatility was extremely low in January at 2.28%, compared with 28.29% since the beginning. Semi-volatility was even as low as 1.36%. This means that although the portfolio fluctuates, the actual risk of loss remains low.

What remains? The confirmation of my strategy: think long-term, keep calm, invest automatically. So January got off to a solid and uneventful start. Just the way I like it!

Outlook

As already explained, I will make provisions for the taxation of the advance lump sum in the markets in the second half of February. This will be accompanied by any expected refunds. If you want to know what, be sure to check back next time. 😊

I'll also bring AI as an off-topic topic.

Gemini 3 is simply amazing. I've already used it to create in-depth research on any topic and use it to create podcasts and information material. NotebookLM is now also on the list of tools I'm going to explore. That's the forward momentum in me, to keep my finger on the pulse and get the most out of the new possibilities.

This time I won't end my review with a personal point, but with an event that has not passed me by.

I actually keep politics and world events out of my social media and internet presence, unless they affect our finances, economy or portfolios. What is happening in Iran is absolutely shocking for me. It is inconceivable that the people there, who are fighting for the same rights that we take for granted, are being cut down en masse like cattle by an inhuman regime and its criminal henchmen

Of course you could say: What's it to us? But if we take a look at our country, we realize that such circumstances can also threaten us if we do not stand up for our free, democratic and liberal values and show the clear edge to everything that stands against them. Our women in particular have fought for rights that must be defended. We men also have a duty to defend these achievements. We must understand that all of us who were born and grew up here in the Western world, from Europe to North America to Australia, New Zealand and Japan, have won the ovarian lottery. Not only in terms of poverty and wealth, but also in terms of human rights and freedoms. And that is precisely why there have been and continue to be posts on my Instagram channel that address and share the situation in Iran. Because they are cut off from the outside world and continue to be brutally oppressed, tortured and executed, it is important to give people their own voice and make them visible.

The courageous people who risk everything in the fight for freedom, who have been injured and the countless people who have been murdered, are the greatest heroes this world has seen in recent times.

I wish the people of Iran, who are now risking everything, that they will finally drive out this criminal Islamic regime and its disgusting henchmen and find their way to peace, freedom and self-determination. I wish them all the best and all the happiness in the world. 🍀

Thank you for reading. And now off to an icy February! ❄️

👉 You can also see my portfolio review for January on Instagram from 08.02.2026 (and budget review from 09.02.2026).

📲 In addition to the portfolio and budget review, there are currently three posts a week: @frugalfreisein. Instagram reels and YouTube shorts currently appear irregularly under channels of the same name; the same applies to videos.

!!! Please pay close attention to the spelling of my alias. Unfortunately, there are too many fake and phishing accounts on social media. I have already been "copied" several times. !!!

👉 How do you personally feel the stock market year has started? (No investment advice!)

$MU (+0,81%)
$VUSA (+0,17%)
$CSNDX (+0,2%)

If doing nothing sounds easier than it is in reality, it can sometimes be the best idea to do what you find hardest...

In my view, the following is very valuable help from our Mr. Krieg, especially for those who are still quite new to the stock market

The discrepancy between the index level and the actual state of the market has never seemed as great as it does today. Is something brewing?

The silent crash

At the moment Börse is currently experiencing a veritable massacre, even if a glance at the indices would not suggest it.

But beneath the surface, countless Aktienare being sold off with an intensity rarely seen before.

Almost half of all stocks listed in the USA are trading below the SMA200. For the S&P 500 this would correspond to a price of 5,090 points, i.e. almost 2,000 points or 27 % lower - and then the S&P 500 would only just have reached the SMA 200.

The mood among many investors is correspondingly gloomy.

For a long time, it looked as if the market was divided between AI winners and AI losers. One category was blindly bought, the other mercilessly punished.

But this picture is now crumbling more and more.

Is this the real dividing line?

The market can be divided into two completely different blocks: Stocks that have already performed poorly in recent months are being sold off further.

Those that have already done well are still being bought.

It looks as if the algo traders have completely taken over the market. Ongoing trends are being blindly continued and there has been a complete disconnect from the fundamentals.

A look at the top and flop lists of the S&P 500 underpins this thesis. The five weakest stocks over the past year are, for example, Trade Desk, Fiserv, Gartner, Lululemon and GoDaddy.

The shares were already weak last year and have been sold off further since the turn of the year - the drop is between 13% and 36%.

The same applies vice versa. The top performers over the past year are Western DigitalSeagate, Micron, Lam Research and Comfort Systems. These stocks were already strong last year and have continued to rise significantly since the turn of the year.

Personally, I am involved in both camps, as I own one of the five flop stocks and three of the top performers.

What conclusions can be drawn?

The question now is how to deal with this. What conclusions can we draw and how should we position ourselves?

The market is not behaving irrationally at the moment, but is following a clear, albeit extreme, regime that is strongly characterized by liquidity and trend-reinforcing strategies.

In such an environment, traditional valuation benchmarks and fundamentals lose considerable importance at times because capital is not allocated according to quality or fair value, but instead mechanically follows existing trends.

At the same time, mean reversion hardly works any more: shares that have fallen are not picked up due to favorable valuations, but are often sold on, while rising stocks continue to attract capital regardless of their valuation level.

The decisive factor here is that momentum does not end due to overvaluation, but only ends when the trend itself breaks.

Cash and classification of the current market phase

This market phase feels sick, because it is. But it may stay that way for quite some time.

In my view, those who are currently holding cash are not missing out on any opportunities. Liquidity creates freedom of action, reduces psychological pressure and allows you to react to real trend changes or market distortions instead of having to react permanently.

Especially in strongly trend-driven markets, it often makes more sense to deliberately do nothing than to hope for a quick normalization in unfavourable market segments.

The current market phase feels so unpleasant because it is structurally unhealthy. However, those who recognize which regime the market is in and make their decisions adaptively rather than ideologically will gain a decisive advantage.

It's less about hitting the turning point precisely and more about being mentally and structurally positioned in such a way that you remain capable of acting when the environment actually changes - and it will.

The regime is crucial

We have seen several clearly recognizable regime changes in recent years.

From the "everything hype" in 2021, when hardly any price could be too high, especially for growth stocks.

This was followed by a tech depression in 2022/2023, in which shares were sold off further, even if the business figures were good.

The years 2024 and 2025 were characterized by a gradual improvement in general conditions - falling inflation risks, falling interest rates and the absence of a recession.

These factors boosted the indices despite the general pessimism.

Last year, the US market became increasingly fragmented and this has intensified considerably this year.

It is impossible to predict how long this trend-driven regime will last. However, such phases usually end with a bang.

The imbalances that have built up on the stock market in recent months are considerable.

Finally, I would like to talk about one of the stocks I have already mentioned. You could have told a nice story about each of them - there are reasons for a continuation of the trend in each case, but also very good arguments against it.

However, if you look at Micron's situation, for example, it seems quite unlikely that the rally will not continue

Micron Technology share: Chart from 04.02.2026, price: USD 420 - symbol: MU | Source: TWS

The price gains are well underpinned by fundamentals. Having already multiplied profits in the last financial year, they are set to rise by a further 295% to USD 32.70 per share this year.

This would give Micron a forward P/E of 12.8.

As profits are also expected to rise in the coming financial year, which begins in September, the rally could continue for some time to come

Source

https://www.lynxbroker.de/boerse/boerse-kurse/aktien/micron-technology-aktie/micron-technology-analyse/?a=3355991664&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter-boersenblick&newsletter=true&mc-rss-cache-bypass=2026020507&goal=0_d93daae099-0c8a167c83-410756260#einige-gedanken-zum-aktuellen-zustand-der-boerse-sp-500-und-micron

$VUSA (+0,17%) removed from my portfolio. This had a 12% weighting in my portfolio. This was my first position since I started investing in 2021. I did not buy it for two years and now decided to sell it. Made a nice return on this and now converted this into:

• 62x $TDIV (+0,04%) (€3.121)
• 21x $VWRL (+0,15%) (€3.057)

I did this simply to make it easier. $TDIV (+0,04%) and $VWRL (+0,15%) I want to have as the basis of my portfolio with a weighting of 80% (now 75%).

My portfolio is now worth €56,000. The goal is to have €100,000 in ETFs as a base and then explore single stocks. Of course, in addition I will continue to expand my ETF positions.

Let me know what you think about this.

WOW, a very good morning I would say 🌅

that's what I call a start to February. Makes me immediately happy when I see it 😇

all the price alerts have exploded and robbed me of my sleep

Let's see what the week has in store...

$BTC (-0,27%)
$PHAG (+2,65%)
$4GLD (+1,66%)
$CSNDX (+0,2%)
$ETH (+0,25%)
$VUSA (+0,17%)

While the world outside was drifting into the Christmas hustle and bustle and I was consciously spending more time with my parents, little dramas were unfolding at the markets. My class leader $AVGO (+0,19%) lost value, as did the main share portfolio. But honestly? I only really noticed this at the end of the year. The second half of December had long since cast its spell over me, especially Christmas and the time between the years when everything slows down a little. Instead of rushing around, I reflected and did some soul-searching. Meanwhile, the automated systems continued to do their job. Savings plans were running and dividends were flowing.

At the end of the year $LTC (+0,28%) Properties was the last buy of the year. Alongside $O (+0,19%) and $MAIN (+0,12%) this monthly payer should continue to grow. The business model has a future and I am building something here step by step.

And now enough of the quiet, time for a review.

Overall performance

It was business as usual as I enjoyed the end of the year. Negative effects passed me by, that's just part of it.

My key performance indicators for my overall portfolio at a glance:

• TTWROR (month under review): -0.46% (previous month: +1.40%)
• TTWROR (since inception): +79,52%
• IZF (month under review): -5.23% (previous month: +18.54%)
• IZF (since inception): +10,81%
• Delta: -401.91€
• Absolute change: +616.54€

Performance & volume

$AVGO (+0,19%) gives up 15% and also pulls ahead of other tech stocks such as $NFLX (-0,14%) and $GOOGL (+0,38%) my main stock portfolio down. The other portfolios rise, but cannot compensate for this. That's part of investing. When I look at the top 5, I notice that defensive stocks such as $BAC (+0,41%) and $WMT (-0,17%) are rising slightly again. I like that, it's a stinking boring business model, which isn't sexy at all, but provides me with steady share price growth and a nice cash flow.

The five red lanterns naturally go to the same weakening candidates (by performance). Well, if something is going well, something must be going badly.

Size of individual stock positions by volume in the overall portfolio:

Share of equities (%) in the total portfolio (and associated securities account):

$AVGO (+0,19%) 3.06% (main share portfolio)

$WMT (-0,17%) 1.76% (main share portfolio)

$GOOGL (+0,38%) 1.51% (main share portfolio)

$BAC (+0,41%) 1.50% (main share portfolio)

$NFLX (-0,14%) 1.38% (main share portfolio)

Smallest individual share positions by volume in the overall portfolio:

Share (%) of the total portfolio (and associated securities account):

$NOVO B (-1,42%) 0.48% (main share portfolio)

$BATS (+0,25%) 0.54% (main share portfolio)

$GIS (+0,22%) 0.55% (crypto follow-on deposit)

$MDLZ (-0,47%) 0.56% (main share portfolio)

$CPB (+0,11%) 0.58% (main share portfolio)

Top-performing individual stocks

Shares with performance since initial purchase (%) (and the respective portfolio):

$AVGO (+0,19%) : +328% (main stock portfolio)

$NFLX (-0,14%) +101% (main share portfolio)

$GOOGL (+0,38%) +115% (main share portfolio)

$WMT (-0,17%) +91% (main share portfolio)

$BAC (+0,41%) + 81% (main share portfolio)

Flop performer individual stocks

Shares with performance since initial purchase (%) (and the respective portfolio):

$NKE (+0,24%) : -35% (main stock portfolio)

$GIS (+0,22%) -34% (main share portfolio)

$TGT (+0,25%) : -33% (main share portfolio)

$CPB (+0,11%) : -30% (main share portfolio)

$NOVO B (-1,42%) -24% (main share portfolio)

Asset allocation

Equities and ETFs currently determine my asset allocation.

ETFs: 41.7%

Equities: 58.2%

Crypto: 0.0%

P2P: less than 0.01%

Investments and subsequent purchases

In December, I slightly increased the savings plans from my net salary and reinvestment. I invested the following amounts in savings plans:

Planned savings plan amount from the fixed net salary: €1,040 [previously: €1,030]

Planned savings plan amount from the fixed net salary, incl. reinvested dividends according to plan size: €1,060 [previously: € 1,040]

Savings ratio of the savings plans to the fixed net salary: 50.24% [49,75%]

In addition, there were the following additional investments from returns, refunds, cashback, etc. as one-off savings plans/repurchases:

Subsequent purchases/one-off savings plans as cashback annuities from refunds: €40.00

Subsequent purchases/one-off savings plans as a cashback annuity from bonuses: € 0.00

Subsequent purchases from other surpluses: € 108.23

Automatically reinvested dividends by the broker: €7.03 (function is only activated for an old custody account, as I otherwise prefer to control the reinvestment myself)

Unscheduled purchases were made on various securities accounts outside the regular savings plans:

Number of unscheduled purchases: 9

40.00€ for $FGEQ (+0,51%)

56.94€ for $ULVR (+1,64%)

88.72€ for $LTC (+0,28%)

After the Magnum spinoff at Unilever, I sold the booked position a few days too late in order to shift it into Unilever with some cash. It was sold:

37,43€ from $MICC (+0,08%)

Magnum Ice Cream is neither in my freezer nor in my portfolio.

Passive income from dividends

I received € 132.75 in dividends (€ 152.20 in the same month last year). This corresponds to a change of -12.78% compared to the same month last year. The reason for the decline is that distributions from my three large Vanguard ETFs no longer arrived on time. Further key figures:

Number of dividend payments: 32

Number of payment days: 16 days

Average dividend per payment: €4.15

average dividend per payday: €8.30

The top three payers in the month under review were:

$ARCC (+0,32%)

$UPS (+0,28%)

$ULVR (+1,64%)

My passive income from dividends (and some interest) mathematically covered 7.94% of my expenses for the month under review. Acceptable for a weak month with medium-high expenses (by my standards).

Crypto performance

I am currently completely on the sidelines here. It will be a while before I get back in.

Performance comparison: portfolio vs. benchmarks

A comparison of my portfolio with two important ETFs shows the TTWROR in the current month (and since the beginning):

My portfolio: -0.46% (since I started: +79.52%)

$VWRL (+0,15%) +0.06% (since my start: 66.12%)

$VUSA (+0,17%) +1.00% (since my start: 63.76%)

After outperforming the ETFs last month, I am underperforming this time. 2026 will catch up. 🤗

Key risk figures

Here are my risk figures for the month under review:

Maximum drawdown: YTD: 17.17% (month under review: 1.56%)

Maximum drawdown duration: 702 days [since inception] (reporting month: 26 days)

Volatility: YTD: 12.00% (in the month under review: 1.33%)

Sharpe Ratio: YTD: 0.48 (in the month under review: -3.92)

Semi-volatility: YTD: 9.35% (in the month under review: 0.98%)

The maximum drawdown of 702 days since the beginning is still reminiscent of the tough phase 2022-2023, before the year-end rally started at the end of 2023. In December itself, the decline of 1.56% was marginal and a sign that the major turbulence of the year was over.

My Sharpe Ratio has improved to 0.48 YTD, showing that for every unit of risk, I get almost half a unit of return above the risk-free rate. Volatility has fallen from a wild 28% over the course of the year to a reassuring 12% YTD, while semi-volatility is down to just 9.35%. That shows: My portfolio does fluctuate, but the risk of loss is lower than the overall volatility would suggest. December was particularly quiet with a semivolatility of 0.98%.

What remains? Confirmation of my strategy: think long-term, keep calm and buy when things get cheap. 2025 ends solidly despite weakness.

Outlook

Back in the November review, I announced my investment of the Christmas bonus. Of course, I wasn't talking about money from my employer, but simply what I received for Christmas plus a few pennies I had lying around at home. I posted the reinvestment on the same day in the week between the years.

I also donated a few dividends, the fourth and final donation was made in December. You can read more about this in the Instagram Story. I think donations are important, because those who have should also give something.

I'll end this review with another personal point, which I already covered in the August and November reviews.

Loyal readers of my reviews will know that in the summer I was diagnosed with an aneurysm of the ascending aorta near my heart as a result of a bicuspid and insufficient aortic valve. It was an accidental finding that took some of the danger out of this ticking time bomb thanks to close monitoring, but it is still ticking. When I look back on the year 2025, I realize how this thing has permanently changed my thinking and my approach. Of course, it's an ongoing process, but I'm less likely to fall back into old patterns. Even though the cardiology appointment in December found that the thing hasn't grown any further, which will give me a little more time before surgery, I know the day will come. It's unclear when, but like a meteoroid hurtling towards the earth, there is something on the horizon. You just don't know when it's going to hit. The fact that the 43-44mm has remained stable (and no more) is a gain of time for me that I want to use. I have a lot of plans to develop new sources of income, significantly expand my social media presence, implement new habits, continue to work on my fitness and focus on life and the positive. Despite the diagnosis, 2025 will be a great year for me. And I'm going to go one better in 2026.

Thank you for reading. I wish you all the best for 2026!

👉 You can also read my portfolio review for December on Instagram from January 8, 2026 (and budget review from 9.1.26).

📲 In addition to the portfolio and budget review, there are currently three posts a week: @frugalfreisein

!!! Please pay close attention to the spelling of my alias. Unfortunately, there are too many fake and phishing accounts on social media. I have already been "copied" several times. !!!

👉 How was your month in the portfolio? Do you have any tops & flops to report? Leave your thoughts in the comments!