In Part 1 I described my start as an investor from 2010 to 2016. Despite loss-making investments and bad decisions (buying AT&T instead of Amazon), I was able to achieve a portfolio value of €35,000. These experiences were to lay the first foundation stone for my future successful investment strategy (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV)

In part 2 I talk about further setbacks in 2017 and 2018 and how the purchase of MasterCard shares marked the turning point in my investment career. Despite initial losses and professional dissatisfaction, I realized that my original strategy wasn't working and discovered the "dividend growth" for me. With a new professional position and a solid salary, I was finally able to really hit the ground running in 2019 (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

In part 3 it will now be about the years 2019 to 2021 will be discussed. In these 3 years, my portfolio has increased fivefold. From €40,000, it went up to €199,000 in the meantime. But not everything was positive here either. During this time, I also made the two worst trades of my investment career. In addition to Wirecard, there were two other equity investments that resulted in losses of over 80%.

The year 2019 & the first share savings plans:

The year 2019 started with a portfolio balance of ~€40,000 and after my MasterCard purchase in December 2018, my major portfolio reorganization was to continue directly at the beginning of 2019. So in the first four months with Tencent $700 (+0,84%)
Intel $INTC (+0,38%)
Salesforce $CRM (+0,07%)
Alphabet $GOOG (+0,45%) and Meta $META (-0,3%) (then still Facebook), five more tech stocks were added to my portfolio. In return I have BHP Billiton $BHP (+0,84%)
Macy's $M (+0,02%)
and Hugo Boss $BOSS (-1,24%) sold.

Later in the year, the shares of Mercedes $MBG (-0,39%)
and AT&T $T (+0,28%) were also removed from the portfolio.

In addition to further acquisitions such as Pepsi $PEP (+0,66%)
Nextera Energy $NEE (-0,39%)
or Xylem $XYL (+0,25%) I also recognized the benefits of share savings plans in 2019 and started to set up a pure "savings plan custody account". At that time, this was still done via comdirect or Consorsbank and each savings plan execution cost a fee of 0.75%.

Another sale in 2019 was the Gamestop-share $GME (+0,38%) . Bought in 2016 to have something to do with gaming in the portfolio, but not taking into account that stationary sales are becoming less and less relevant. In the end, the share price fell by 85% - unfortunately, this was long before the memestock hype emerged.

My portfolio rose to ~€67,000 in 2019 and achieved a return of 23%. However, this was still well below the MSCI World and the S&P 500.

The year 2020 - Corona, Wirecard bankruptcy & 100k before 30 in the portfolio

2020 - a year that few of us will probably forget. While everything was still going reasonably smoothly in January and February 2020, chaos was set to break out from mid-February/March.

The first few weeks of 2020 had given rise to hopes of a very positive development in my portfolio. From the beginning of January to mid-February, my portfolio rose by almost €10,000 to €77,000.

Panic then slowly set in from mid-February. I still remember exactly how trading on the US stock markets was repeatedly suspended for short periods and daily losses of 10% were normal. At 0 o'clock sharp, I looked at the US futures and in seconds the futures went down by -5%. A cap for the futures, the futures loss must not be higher and you knew the next morning it would end badly for the DAX.

But when there is blood in the streets, you can make very good deals! So in March 2020 I bought the Allianz
$ALV (-0,66%) for €118. This gives me a personal dividend yield of almost 12% based on the current dividend of €13.80. Unfortunately, I only bought for €1,000 in total.

Also Starbucks
$SBUX (-0,13%) I was able to buy for less than €50.

The stock market crash continued until the Fed made short work of it and ended the crash single-handedly. The crash was ended with interest rate cuts and massive money printing and once again the saying "Never bet against the FED" proved to be true.

The stock markets then went through the roof and within a very short space of time were already back to a positive level compared to the end of 2019. Every share that somehow falls under the term "stay at home" was suddenly the hot tip on the stock market. Whether the Peloton $PTON (-0,98%)

or Teladoc $TDOC (+0,03%) everything went through the roof.

I let myself get carried away and did about 10 "Stay at Home" hype stocks into a growth savings plan portfolio. Of these, at the end of 2024 with Sea $SE (+0,28%) and MercadoLibre $MELI (+1,26%) only two shares remained. It goes without saying that most of them left the portfolio at a loss.

But 2020 was also the Wirecard year $WDI BaFin's ban on short selling, a year-long audit by EY, political backing and massive investments by German fund managers from DWS, UnionInvest and Deka vs. a journalist from the Financial Times.

Wirecard's claims that the journalist was in cahoots with short sellers and the backing from various institutions were unfortunately too credible for me.

When Wirecard faced the press and announced that EUR 2 billion could no longer be found, things went downhill and it became clear to everyone that the company was heading for insolvency. Before trading was suspended, I was able to sell my shares at a 50% loss and got off lightly.

Later in the year, I was able to conclude an extremely favorable leasing offer and sell my private car. The proceeds went straight into my securities account and I broke the €100,000 barrier in November 2020.

My portfolio then ended the year with a value of ~€120,000. At +5%, my performance was pretty much in line with the MSCI World.

The year 2021 - HYPE! Wall Street bets, crypto and almost 200k in the portfolio

The year 2021 was characterized above all by hypes. Cryptocurrencies, memestocks and memecoins were in the headlines everywhere. Gamestop, Dogecoin, SPACs and NFTs everyone had to have.

Traditional shares became almost boring.

One of the reasons was certainly the checks that the US government issued to its citizens. It was still Corona, many were locked down and suddenly people started gambling on the stock market.

The hype can be illustrated very well using the example of NFTs. In 2021, NFTs worth $17 billion were traded, in 2023 it was only 80 million - a decline of 97%. According to one study, ~95% of all NFTs are now completely worthless.

The madness in one example: Procter & Gamble launched a Charmin toilet paper NFT. This was sold for over $4,000. All proceeds were donated, but a symbol of the madness of 2021.

From a portfolio perspective, 2021 was great! In the end, there was a +32% return and a portfolio value of over €190,000, which at times in November 2021 was €199,000.

My top performers were NVIDIA
$NVDA (+0,63%) with over 100% price gains and Pfizer $PFE (+0,14%)
, which was driven by the vaccine hype and at €50 was twice as high as in 2024.

My worst performer was another 80% loss with TAL Education $TAL (-0,27%) . An education company from China. Unfortunately, this was the first time I was able to experience the political arbitrariness in countries like China. Overnight, it was decided that education/tutoring could only be run as a non-profit. Of course, this was almost a death sentence for the company and the share price plummeted by 80%.

Asset development & return:

After the years 2013 to 2018 were forgettable in terms of returns, the years 2019 to 2021 finally delivered:

Year
Deposit value
Yield

2019 67.000€ +19%

2020 121.000€ +5%

2021 193.000€ +34%

Vermögensentwicklung 2019-2021:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2021:

Outlook:

Looking back on the hype year 2021, it is almost obvious that 2022 had to be clearly negative.

After the party, however, came the hangover in the form of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sharply rising interest rates and global economic concerns did the rest.

In the next part, I would therefore like to look at the years 2022 & 2023. I will then combine 2024 with my review of the year in the last part.

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends

After being a mostly silent reader for over a year now, watching with interest what strategies and views others are pursuing:

Today I would like to share my first milestone with you - and most likely (never say never) my last.

After the last few weeks have been rather sideways, today I'm green again and have made a significant jump.

🎉A portfolio value of €1,000,000🎉

Briefly in advance:

My start in the world of finance began with a securities account that I inherited at the age of 20 due to sad circumstances. I never really got to grips with investments and 2-3 years later, I had completely different worries and suffering and would have gladly swapped the portfolio for a loved one again.

Now a little about my "strategy"

I inherited a lot of "blue chip" stocks and gradually sold some of them and opted for other stocks.

In my opinion, the "price increase" team is clearly superior to the "dividend" team at Getquin. I have always tried to find a healthy mix, and I have to admit that dividend stocks help me to get more involved with investing.

In the ~7 years I have been active so far, I have also had to learn the hard way and gain experience. Here are a few brief insights for those who are interested:

$TTE (-0,11%) and $AI (+0,28%) were my first self-made purchases, whereby I gradually $AI (+0,28%) I gradually increased my holdings and fortunately was able to take a stock split with me.

My first speculative share $NEL (+1,69%) had a price gain of 300% in the meantime, but was sold at a loss after disappointing figures.

During a professional training program during Corona, I bought shares $GME (+0,38%) I bought shares and took part in the rollercoaster ride in which I was able to realize a profit of €1,500 from a €6,000 investment and a lot of sweating and excitement.

I bought 0.05 $BTC (-1,91%) and was able to successfully hold it for 2 years and go from 0 to 0 before the BTC price went through the roof. You have to manage that first.

After the scandal of $WDI I thought, well the figures may be falsified but the company will have a conscience value and I burned another €1,500 at a share price of €1.22.

In addition, I couldn't quite believe the sanctions against Russia and shortly before the announcement of the sanctions $GAZP I bought shares worth €1,600.

At the end of the millions, the purchase of $PLTR (-2,74%) where I can currently record a 450% price gain.

( Thank you Jan Böhmermann, your video about this "evil" company was the best advertisement )

I am now happy with my portfolio. In the long term, I am still waiting $WCH (-1,36%) for a reasonably positive exit.

Of $SAP (-0,37%) as I also work with it at work and don't see any competition in the medium term as far as customized solutions are concerned.

I would also like to increase the position of $ENR (+2,3%) and generally increase my weighting with the Worlds funds.

I have currently set up savings plans of around €900 (€700 Worlds, €150 S&P 500, €50 EM)

In addition, I have a securities account not tracked here where I have been participating in a share program for employees for 10 years with my annual bonus payment from my employer. I also regularly watch videos of "Finanzbär" on Youtube where I am occasionally tempted to make individual purchases (e.g. $HIMS (+0,12%) and $SHOP (-0,95%) )

I can highly recommend it!

Fortunately, I can expect 3 salary increases in the next 12 months due to collective agreements and a change of position in the company.

I would like to use this to top up my savings plans and am considering investing €100 a month in $BTC (-1,91%) or $MSTR (-1,12%)

and we'll see.

My next goal?

Continue in the same way but don't forget that you are alive NOW and treat yourself to something. And if things go well, enjoy life in a southern country in my early 40s and no longer have to work 😁

With this in mind :

Cheers 🥂 thanks to all of you

The Super Micro Computer share has three things in common with Wirecard:

1) There were earlier signs of fraud.

2) Reports are missing and are repeatedly postponed.

3) The company's own auditor refuses to issue an audit certificate.

>> Since the all-time high in the AI hype in March, the share has fallen 76%. Is $SMCI AI wirecard?

#ai
#ki
#künstlicheinteligenz
$NVDA (+0,63%)
$INTC (+0,38%)
$AMD (-0,49%)
$DELL (+0,31%)
$WDI

26.09.2024

Tilray: In the fast lane with HDD9 drinks + SMA Solar is cutting back - job cuts likely + SAP is being targeted by the US Department of Justice + 50,000 Wirecard shareholders can hope for a little cash + Delivery Hero rally continues - 12-month high

The US investment bank Jefferies has raised its rating for Tilray $TLRY (-0,85%) to "Buy" with a price target of 2.50 dollars. Based on the current share price, this corresponds to a potential return of 48%. In his current study, analyst Kaumil Gajrawala highlighted the launch of a new range of beverages containing hemp-derived Delta-9-THC (HDD9). These products are expected to be available in key US markets from October 2024.

https://de.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tilray-mit-hdd9drinks-auf-die-uberholspur--jefferies-sieht-49-potenzial-2715190

The weakening inverter manufacturer SMA Solar $S92 (+0%) wants to make substantial savings due to the problems in the business with private and commercial solar systems and is also likely to cut jobs. The Managing Board intends to launch a restructuring and transformation program that is expected to result in cost savings of 150 to 200 million euros, as the SDax company announced late Wednesday evening in Niestetal, Hesse. The sales development in the Home Solutions and Commercial & Industrial Solutions segments continues to be significantly influenced by persistently high inventories at dealers and installers as well as a generally very challenging market environment, it said. The share price rose by two percent after the close of trading on the Tradegate trading platform compared to the Xetra close. "In order for SMA to remain an integral part of the global energy transition in the future, we must now position ourselves better and for the future," said CEO Jürgen Reinert according to the press release. He wants to use the cost-cutting program to stabilize the company financially in the short term and realign it on the market.

SAP $SAP (-0,37%) was under pressure to sell following a report that the company in the USA, as well as the US IT reseller Carahsoft, had been targeted by the US Department of Justice. Since at least 2022, lawyers have been investigating whether the German software group had entered into possible price agreements with Carahsoft in order to obtain excessive prices from the US Army and other US authorities. This is according to court documents filed, reported the news agency Bloomberg. An SAP spokesperson did not want to comment on this when asked by Dow Jones Newswires.

Following a new decision by the Munich Higher Regional Court, a good 50,000 Wirecard $WDI -shareholders can hope for compensation in the insolvency proceedings for the time being. The fifth senate of the Higher Regional Court has decided that Wirecard shareholders can file their claims in the insolvency proceedings. The lawsuit against the insolvency administrator Michael Jaffé was brought by the asset management company Union Investment, which had purchased Wirecard shares for 33 of its clients between 2015 and 2020. First reported by the "Süddeutsche Zeitung". The case is not yet closed. It is a so-called "interim judgment"; the judges in the case did not decide on the grounds or the amount of the claims for damages filed by Union Investment.

The mood of optimism among investors in Delivery Hero $DHER (+0,46%) continued on Wednesday. The shares continued their rapid recovery, which began at the beginning of August, with a 7.7 percent jump in price to EUR 34.53. This was the first time in more than a year that they had exceeded the EUR 34 mark. The old highs from November 2023 and April 2024 were recently close to this level, but the increase was recently put back into perspective to almost 5%. Recently, the prospect of an IPO of the rapidly growing Middle East and North Africa brand Talabat, among other things, has been arousing the imagination of investors, who have been used to a lot of grief since the record high from the coronavirus era. In January 2021, up to EUR 145 was paid when the pandemic lockdowns triggered hype around online services. In the spring of this year, the sell-off then ended at a level of just under EUR 15, from which there have only been temporary recovery rallies so far. In July and August, the shares came even closer to the low.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

British American Tobacco 0.59 GBP

Philip Morris International 1.35 US

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

17:00 Intuit Investor Day

22:00 Costco Wholesale quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 KWS Saat detailed annual results + annual report

08:00 Verbio annual results and annual report | Hennes & Mauritz 9-month results

10:00 KWS Saat BI-PK

11:30 BASF Capital Markets Day, Day 1

14:00 Verbio Earnings-Call

Untimed: Thyssenkrupp: Supervisory Board meeting at Thyssenkrupp Steel

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: GfK consumer climate indicator September FORECAST: -21.3 points previously: -22.0 points
• 09:30 CH: Swiss National Bank (SNB), outcome of the Monetary Policy Council meeting
• 10:00 EU: ECB, M3 money supply and lending August M3 money supply FORECAST: +2.6% yoy previously: +2.3% yoy
• 14:30 US: New orders for durable goods August PROGNOSE: -3.0% yoy previous: +9.8% yoy
• 14:30 US: GDP (3rd release) 2Q annualized PROGNOSE: +3.0% yoy 2nd release: +3.0% yoy 1st quarter: +1.4% yoy GDP deflator PROGNOSE: +2.5% yoy 2nd release: +2.5% yoy 1st quarter: +3.1% yoy
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 223,000 Previous: 219,000

In the course of a suspected espionage case Egisto O.a former employee of the Austrian Federal Austrian Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution and Counterterrorism (BVT), is accused of passing on information to Russia of having sold information to Russia. His former superior, Martin W., allegedly instigated him to do so, possibly on behalf of Wirecard's ($WDI ) COO Jan Marsalek. Marsalek is suspected of having had helpers in Germany to obtain the information about Egisto O..

Egisto O. was arrested and is now in custody. He is accused of having stolen cell phones from high-ranking officials of the Austrian Ministry of the Interior to the Russian secret service to the Russian secret service. Marsalek is said to have sent couriers with cash from Berlin to Vienna to pick up a laptop with secret contents and bring it to Russia. This laptop, a so-called "SINA laptop", is intended for the storage and transmission of data with the highest classification level "Top Secret" classification.

It is suspected that secret data was stored on the laptop, which was intended for the Russian secret service were of interest to the Russian secret service. Egisto O. denies the allegations and claims to be the victim of an intrigue within the Austrian security authorities.

$WDI In case anyone is wondering what Jan Marsalek is currently doing? He has now become a priest😂

The current trial before the District Court
Munich I against the former CEO Markus Braun ($WDI ), key witness Oliver Bellenhaus and the former chief accountant began in December 2022. Originally for 100 days scheduled, the process now extended by a further 86 days extended until December 2024. The complexity of the case and the "extensive taking of evidence" are the reasons for this extension.

$WDI Wirecard Jan Marsalek writes a letter and the share price jumps 40%.....?!?!?

Edit: Wirecard is now only traded on the Hamburg Stock Exchange. So on GQ is not to be seen there

Exciting story about $MPW (-1,09%)

Earlier this year, Viceroy Research LLC (founder Perring had at the time $WDI brought down) made serious accusations against $MPW (-1,09%) raised.

$MPW (-1,09%) subsequently filed suit on March 30 for defamation, among other things. In the publication of today's quarterly figures $MPW (-1,09%) comments on this as follows:

"On March 30, MPT sued short seller Viceroy Research LLC and its directors, including Fraser Perring, in federal court for defamation and related wrongs in connection with their campaign of malicious falsehoods designed to generate profits at the expense of MPT and its shareholders. The statement of claim is available here.

Although Perring has publicly acknowledged the lawsuit, he has not commented on the case. And rather than respond to MPT's allegations, Viceroy has filed motions to dismiss the lawsuits before they reach a jury, arguing that they cannot be sustained because Viceroy's attacks on the company, although contained in "reports," were not "facts," but merely "opinions" and "comments . . dominated by colorful, hyperbolic language," and also claims that the court lacks jurisdiction. But as MPT's lawsuit makes clear, the false, misleading, and defamatory statements repeatedly published by Viceroy, Perring, and others are not "opinions" or "beliefs," but alleged statements of fact, the fundamental nature of which cannot be altered by disclaimers. MPT looks forward to proving its claims and obtaining from Defendants and others the documents, communications, and other disclosures to which it is entitled under the law."

Curious to see how this progresses. Viceroy doesn't seem to be so sure about his claims anymore 😉 ...

APAS has now ruled in the case of EY/ $WDI decided:

Fine for EY and no new mandates from public interest entities for 2 years.

https://www.finance-magazin.de/banking-berater/big-four/nach-wirecard-diese-harten-strafen-drohen-ey-149488/

Personally, I think the penalty imposed by the supervisory authority is still relatively low.

Half a million is not that much when you consider that auditors were fined 300,000€ in some cases...

I'm also very curious about the lawsuit filed by Commerzbank and what will come out of it.

#ey
#commerzbank
#wirecard
#apas