Hello getquin community, welcome to the year 2026! 🚀

To kick off the year, I'm giving you an insight into what I consider to be the optimal growth portfolio: the "Global Quality Compounder 15" (as of 01.01.2026).

The strategy behind this portfolio should be simple, but also effective: I focus exclusively on the absolute market leaders with insurmountable economic moats ("moats"). These are companies that are benefiting from the advancing digitalization and the deep integration of AI into the economy. No experiments, no unprofitable hopes - just pure pure operational excellence right now,
pricing power and massive free cash flow.

Here is the current line-up and my analysis.

👇👇👇

The portfolio "Global Quality Compounder 15" (as at January 2026) is a top-class selection of companies that impress with their enormous pricing power, high margins and deep-rooted competitive advantages ("moats"). The focus is clearly on scalability and technological advantage. I currently have some of these stocks in my real portfolio. I will add the missing ones in periods of weakness.

Here is an analysis of the investment theses for each of the 15 stocks:

1. the cloud & advertising giants

Amazon $AMZN (-0,22%)

The thesis is based on the operational leverage. While the trading business provides the foundation, AWS drives profitability. In 2026, we see a re-acceleration of AWS through AI workloads. However, the real "hidden champion" is the advertising business: Amazon uses its first-party data so efficiently that advertising margins are expanding massively and diversifying cash flow. Mass introduction of robots in the AMZN warehouses should raise cash flows to new levels. My favorite now!

Microsoft $MSFT (-0,35%)

Microsoft remains the safest haven in the software sector. With Azure as the operating system of the cloud and Office 365 as an indispensable work tool, the company has the most stable subscription market in the world. 2026 will be dominated by the monetization of Copilot and AI integrations, which will further increase user loyalty. The upcoming IPO of OpenAI will massively increase the MS stake (profits) on a one-off basis. MS holds 27% of OpenAI (!)

Meta Platforms $META (-0,36%)

Despite the investments in the metaverse, the core business (Instagram/WhatsApp/Facebook) remains a money-printing machine. The investment thesis is based on the PEG ratio (Price/Earnings-to-Growth): Meta often offers the strongest growth per dollar of profit paid compared to other tech giants, supported by AI-powered advertising algorithms that maximize ROI for advertisers.

Alphabet $GOOG (-0,14%)

Alphabet is the ultimate cash machine. Despite regulatory pressure and AI competition (such as Perplexity or ChatGPT), search remains the gateway to the internet. With a moderate P/E ratio of around 30 (as of 2026), Alphabet offers downside protection, while YouTube and Google Cloud are driving up growth. Gemini 3 Pro is an Open AI scare. Have you ever tried the Deep Search mode in Gemini?

It's incredibly good. The upcoming IPO of SpaceX will massively increase the $GOOG (-0,14%) (profits) will increase massively on a one-off basis.

2. the financial market toll stations

Mastercard $MA (+0,32%)
& Visa $V (+0,14%)

Both companies form a global duopoly. They participate in every percentage point of inflation and the structural trend away from cash. Mastercard is favored here because it invests more aggressively in new tech layers (cybersecurity, data analysis), while Visa has the most massive basic infrastructure.

Moody's $MCO (-0,2%)
& S&P Global $SPGI (-0,1%)

These two firms act as regulatory tollbooths. No large company can raise debt on the capital market without a rating. As global debt levels tend to rise and the complexity of the markets increases, they benefit from stable, high-margin fees.

MSCI $MSCI (-0,02%)

MSCI is the "shovel salesman" for the asset management industry. As more and more capital flows into ETFs and index-based products, almost every fund manager has to pay fees to use the MSCI indices. The model is extremely crisis-proof, as the data subscriptions run even in bear markets.

3. the technological basis (semiconductors & software)

Broadcom $AVGO (-0,49%)

Broadcom is the perfect mix of hardware cyclicality and software stability. By integrating VMware, Hock Tan (CEO) has transformed the company into a cash flow giant. They provide the essential chips for AI networks while benefiting from highly profitable software subscriptions.

Netflix $NFLX (+0,06%)

Netflix has won the "streaming war". While the competition is still struggling with profitability, Netflix is scaling its margins through advertising subscriptions and price increases. The thesis: unchallenged economies of scale in content spend per subscriber.

ASML $ASML (-0,26%)

There is no progress in chips without ASML. As a monopolist for EUV lithography (extreme ultraviolet) lithography, ASML is the bottleneck of the entire semiconductor industry. Anyone who wants to produce chips below 2nm in 2026 will not be able to avoid the high-NA machines from Veldhoven.

TSMC $TSM (-0,8%)

TSMC is the operational backbone. Almost all companies in this portfolio (Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom) have their components $TSM (-0,8%) manufacture. The 3% weighting is due to geopolitical risks (Taiwan), but fundamentally TSMC remains unrivaled in terms of manufacturing efficiency.

ServiceNow $NOW (+0,05%)

ServiceNow has become the standard for enterprise workflows workflows. It combines legacy IT systems with modern interfaces. In a world where companies need to digitize their processes to become AI-enabled, ServiceNow is the platform of choice.

Nvidia $NVDA (+0,09%)

Nvidia is the "engine". Although they are leading the AI revolution, the weighting of 2% compared to the 8% figures is more of a strategic satellite position due to the high valuation or the expected normalization of the hardware cycle by 2026.

Conclusion on the portfolio structure

This portfolio is extremely defensive in terms of market position ("quality"), but offensive in terms of technological growth. It is betting that the world will be even more dependent on digital payments, cloud infrastructure and semiconductors in 2026 than it is today.

⚖️ Opportunities & risks Analysis of the overall strategy

This portfolio is a bet on the stability of the global digital infrastructure. It is "high quality", but not without risks.

The opportunities (Why this portfolio should outperform over the long term):

• Unchallenged pricing power: Whether inflation is high or low, companies like Visa, Microsoft or Moody's can raise their prices without losing customers. Their services are "must-haves", not "nice-to-haves".
• The AI supercycle (monetization): In 2026, we are beyond the hype. These companies (Broadcom, ServiceNow, the cloud giants) are the ones actually turning AI into profitable applications and providing the necessary infrastructure.
• Cash flow machines: The combined free cash flow yield of this portfolio is enormous. This enables massive share buyback programs and rising dividends, which supports the share price even in volatile market phases.
• Economies of scale: The digital business models ($META (-0,36%) , $NFLX (+0,06%), $GOOG (-0,14%)) scale almost without marginal costs. Every additional dollar of revenue is almost pure profit.

The risks

• Valuation risk (multiple compression): Quality has its price. These shares will not be "cheap" in 2026 either (high P/E ratio). If growth disappoints even slightly, share prices can fall disproportionately, even if the companies are still operationally healthy.
• Regulatory headwinds: The dominance of these "oligopolies" is a thorn in the side of governments worldwide. Antitrust proceedings against Google, Amazon or the Visa/Mastercard duopoly remain a constant threat.
• The geopolitical cluster risk (Taiwan): With $ASML (-0,26%), $AVGO (-0,49%), $NVDA (+0,09%) and $TSM (-0,8%) over 20% of the portfolio is directly or indirectly dependent on the stability of the semiconductor supply chain in Taiwan. A conflict there would be devastating for this portfolio.
• Concentration risk: With only 15 stocks, diversification is low. An accounting scandal or an operational disaster at one of the top stocks (which are weighted at 8%) would severely drag down the overall performance.

Nevertheless, I believe in this portfolio, even with the knowledge that some stocks are currently highly valued. Just collect them like postcards during weak phases and hold them. Don't trade ;-)

What do you think? I'm really interested in your opinion - and criticism too.

The start has been made.

After two years of investing, the first milestones have been reached. This year, my portfolio can break the €10,000 mark and I was able to take home my first €100 in dividends.

The plan is clear: continue in the same way and stay invested for the long term.

As I'm still at the beginning, I'm also taking one or two tips with me.

I recently ran my portfolio through the AI and was pleasantly surprised by the current value distribution. However $ASML (-0,26%) is currently through the roof and with my small investment I am currently up 45%. Should I sell some of it and switch to other stocks? As a rebalancing?

I find the more devensive stocks a little less stressful, so I'm flirting with :

$PG (-0,27%)

$KO (+0,04%)

$MCD (+0,04%)

$ALV (-0,01%)

I would like to add one of these stocks to my portfolio this year.

I would be very happy to receive feedback.

Extremely interesting insights into the currently most important technology.

$ASML (-0,26%) included in my portfolio (~1%).

Are you also invested?

https://youtu.be/MiUHjLxm3V0?si=OVIuA-Vt0KguFwiZ

The ASML share rose today by $ASML (-0,26%) increased.

Aletheia Capital analyst Warren Law has upgraded ASML to "buy" and doubled the price target from 750 to 1,500 US dollars. 👩🏻‍🚀

https://www.stock-world.de/asml-aktie-ergebnissteigerung-erreicht/

I would like to briefly introduce you to a company that I believe will benefit massively from the development of chip technology in China. The company in question is $1347 (+3,97%) . Just as the USA is trying to become independent of China, China is doing everything in its power to end its dependence on Western technologies. And they have recently achieved a major breakthrough in the chip sector, which could also break the dominance of $ASML (-0,26%) could be broken.

China is currently planning the mass production of high-quality AI chips using its own ASML technology in 2028. The main beneficiary will of course be first $981 be first. But they have already done very well. $1347 (+3,97%) In my opinion, ASML has potential again after the 25% setback. Especially as 20% of the market cap is covered by cash reserves. Of course, with a P/E ratio of 80 and a KUV of 6, this is no widow and orphan stock! But you don't expect that from me either. I would definitely see 50% potential here over the next 6-12 months.

2025 was a special year. Since the birth of our son in February, family came first, which led to a lower savings rate. Denkoch I am satisfied with the year.

The highlights:

Performance: With an IRR of 13.15 %, my target of 8 % was clearly exceeded, although I currently hold 25 % in bonds.

Top performer: After the "Rosegarten crash", opportunistic entries/repurchases paid off. Particularly strong performance:

$TSM (-0,8%) : +104,6 %

$INTC (-0,13%) : +59,4 %

$ASML (-0,26%) : +40,4 %

$BA: (+0,07%) +35,9 %

$NET (-0,76%) once again contributed the largest absolute gain as the largest item.

Sector focus: The Healthcare segment was strengthened, including with $EXEL (-0,66%) and the perennial favorite $ISRG (-0,01%) (+25,4 %).

Outlook 2026:

The focus is on second-tier AI winners and the healthcare sector. In the event of setbacks in the semiconductor sector, I plan to further expand positions.

Reading time: approx. 5-6 minutes

After quarterly figures, I regularly read the same astonishment here: the figures were good - why is the share price falling?

This question assumes that share prices react to figures. They don't. The market evaluates expectations in relation to price, not sales or profits in isolation. The decisive factor is the deviation between what is delivered and what the share price had previously assumed.

Expectations are not created in the earnings call. They are in the share price, or more precisely in the multiple. A company that trades at 30 or 40 times forward earnings implicitly carries very specific assumptions: high, preferably consistent growth, stable or rising margins, little operational friction and ideally additional upside potential. The higher this valuation level, the narrower the expectation corridor becomes. This is not a question of sentiment, but of valuation mechanics. If this corset no longer fits even slightly, a multiple adjustment is enough - and the share price reacts, even if the figures are objectively strong.

This is precisely why "good figures" are often not enough for highly valued companies. A quarter can be operationally convincing and still trigger a sell-off because it only confirms what was already priced in. In such situations, nothing has to change fundamentally. It is enough that growth rates normalize minimally, margins do not increase further or the guidance is formulated more cautiously. The market is then not renegotiating the business model, but the price it is prepared to pay for it.

A very clear example of this is NVIDIA. Operationally, the company has been delivering exceptional results for quarters: explosive demand in the data center, high gross margins, massive cash flows. Nevertheless, there have always been significant setbacks after figures. Not because the figures were bad, but because they were no longer clearly better than what the market had already assumed. With such valuations, "strong" is simply not enough - the bar is set at "even stronger". The business model remains intact, but the price is being readjusted.

I therefore approach earnings differently today than I used to. I am less interested in whether the consensus will be beaten, but rather whether what is delivered is sufficient to support the existing valuation. I try to understand which narrative the market is currently playing and which key figure is in focus. If growth is the narrative, efficiency alone is of little help. If cash flow is in demand, pure sales beats fall flat. I become particularly cautious when a share has a very clear narrative, is very widely loved and has a very high valuation. Then there is often less room for positive surprises than many people think.

This logic is currently particularly evident in several hot topics.

In the AI and semiconductor environment, the valuations of many companies are so high that even very strong figures hardly have any potential for surprises. Growth is assumed; sustainability, investment cycles and margin stability are crucial. Accordingly, the market reacts nervously to any hint of normalization. Typical examples from this environment are

$NVDA (+0,09%) (Nvidia), $AMD (-0,34%) (Advanced Micro Devices), $AVGO (-0,49%) (Broadcom), $ASML (-0,26%) (ASML Holding) and $INOD (+0,76%) (Innodata).

In the software and SaaS sector, the focus is shifting noticeably away from pure sales growth towards free cash flow, efficiency and return on capital. Companies can beat sales and still fall if margins or cash flow do not keep pace. The valuation grid has changed - and many reactions to figures can be explained in precisely this way. Examples of this are

$MSFT (-0,35%) (Microsoft), $CRM (+0,08%) (Salesforce), $NOW (+0,05%) (ServiceNow), $SNOW (-0,19%) (Snowflake) and $ADBE (+0,02%) (Adobe).

Electromobility and structural growth are particularly good examples of how a narrative can tilt. In the past, the focus was on unit sales and growth, whereas today the market is more focused on margins, price pressure and capital intensity. Figures that would have been celebrated a few years ago are losing their impact because they no longer address what is currently valued. Typical representatives of this area of tension are

$TSLA (+0,16%) (Tesla), $RIVN (+0,06%) (Rivian), $LCID (+0,25%) (Lucid Group), $BYDDY (-2,77%) (BYD Company) and $9866 (+1,16%) (NIO).

While high valuations and ambitious cash flow expectations in the software and SaaS environment mean that even decent quarters can quickly disappoint, the opposite is often the case with industrial and infrastructure stocks: lower expectations, more defensive positioning and therefore significantly more room for positive surprises after the figures. Here, stability or a slight improvement is often enough to trigger a revaluation. Examples of this are

$CAT (-0,19%) (Caterpillar), $DE (+0,08%) (Deere & Company), $HON (+0,03%) (Honeywell) and $VRT (-0,36%) (Vertiv).

For me, all this boils down to a sober but crucial realization: the market does not ask whether a company is good after the figures. It asks whether what was delivered was better, worse or exactly what the price implied. The higher the valuation, the tougher the test. Good key figures are necessary, but not a sure-fire success. They only work in conjunction with expectations and price.

Outlook:

The next part will deal with the flip side of this logic: why shares can rise after poor figures - and what role fear, positioning and asymmetric expectations play in this.