Glencore

$GLEN (-0.09%) After the trailing SL at €5 recently struck again, the position will be built up again from today.

The first 500 shares went into the portfolio at €4.521. Let's see if the price stays in the range again 🫣

If things go as planned, the position will be built up at this level. The trading SL will be set again at over €5.

Let's see what happens 😅

Edit 15.11.24: Position increased to 1,000 shares

Positive signals at $GLEN (-0.09%) Glencore 🚀💡💪

What is your opinion of Glencore $GLEN (-0.09%) ?

Personally, I have increased my position somewhat, given what I think is a favorable price at the moment. 🚀💪

What does Glencore actually do?

We produce, recycle, source, market and distribute transition metals and minerals that are critical to the transition to a low-carbon economy and to meeting the needs of everyday life.

⛏️ Titans of the deep: Rio, Glencore, BHP, Vale - who will dig up the biggest profits? 💎

Company presentation

Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale are among the three largest iron ore producers in the world, while Glencore plays a key role in global commodity trading as a leading commodity trader and producer.

- Rio Tinto: An Anglo-Australian mining group with dual headquarters in London and Melbourne.

- BHP: Australia's largest industrial group, headquartered in Melbourne.

- Glencore: A Swiss commodities trading and mining company headquartered in Baar.

- Vale: A Brazilian mining group specializing in iron ore.

Historical development

Rio Tinto was founded in 1873 and developed into a global mining giant through the development of deposits in Africa, Australia and Canada. The current structure as a dual company was created in 1995.

BHP goes back to Charles Rasp's silver discovery in Broken Hill in 1883. With the diversification into iron ore, coal and oil and the merger with Billiton in 2001, BHP created one of the world's largest commodity groups.

Glencore, founded in 1974 as Marc Rich + Co AG, grew to become one of the most important commodity traders in the world and went public in 2011.

Vale was founded in 1942 as a state-owned company and privatized in 1997. The company's focus has always been on iron ore production in Brazil.

Business model and core competencies

Rio Tinto focuses on the extraction of iron ore, copper, aluminum and other metals. Efficient production and the operation of large-scale mines are among the company's core competencies.

BHP is active in the iron ore, copper, coal and oil sectors and has a diversified product range and an extensive global presence.

Glencore combines commodity production and trading and controls the entire value chain, from extraction to distribution. This vertical integration is one of the company's greatest strengths.

Vale specializes in iron ore exports, complemented by activities in nickel and copper.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

- Rio Tinto is increasingly investing in copper, lithium and aluminum, which play a key role in electromobility and renewable energies.

- BHP is focusing on "future-proof" raw materials such as copper and nickel, which are needed for batteries and green technologies.

- Glencore is positioning itself as an important supplier to the battery industry and is investing in cobalt and nickel.

- Vale is increasing its involvement in the nickel business in order to benefit from the growing demand in the electric automotive sector.

Market position and competition

- Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale together control around 70% of the world's seaborne iron ore trade.

- Glencore is a leader in global commodity trading and is one of the largest producers of copper and cobalt.

Competition in this industry is focused on cost efficiency, the development of new resources and positioning in the growing market for metals that are essential for the energy transition.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The total addressable market (TAM) of the global mining industry is estimated at over USD 1.5 trillion. This figure is expected to rise further in the coming years, particularly due to the increasing demand for critical raw materials such as battery metals, which are essential for the expansion of green technologies.

Share performance

Mining company share prices are strongly linked to commodity prices, leading to high volatility. Glencore's TR over 5 years is 120%, Rio Tinto's TR is 92%, BHP's TR is 101% and Vale's TR is 116%.

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog: https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/titanen-der-tiefe-rio-glencore-bhp-vale-wer-gr-bt-den-gr-ten-gewinn-aus

Conclusion

Vale, BHP and Rio Tinto are not significantly different. Although BHP has clearly outperformed in some cycles, it has always subsequently adjusted to the average. Vale could be unfavorable from a regulatory perspective, but the industry is facing challenges anyway, and it's not as if the others are any better, as the mines are not exactly in the cleanest regions.

Looking at the individual stock data, BHP does seem like the best candidate, but I would never bet on just one when it comes to mining companies. Therefore, I would consider a combination of BHP and Rio Tinto, and if you want, you can also include Vale.

Glencore is large and well positioned, but the figures are not really convincing. Even after countless announcements about certain strategies, I don't like the results. The growth is impressive, but when the results deteriorate like this - especially in terms of sales - it doesn't help much. For me, Glencore is more of a trading candidate, as every year you experience a brief decline, then recover and then fall again.

So if you want to position yourself in mining and thus include the anti-cyclicals in your portfolio, it is best to look at BHP and Rio Tinto. In view of China's most important customer, however, you should also be aware that 50% of sales here also come from one country, which no longer seems so abnormal these days.

For myself, I am going with Vale, Rio Tinto and a possible entry into BHP as far as the situation allows. Entry prices for me are 24 euros for BHP, 10 euros for Vale and 60 euros for Rio Tinto and then down in 10-15% jumps.

$RIO (+1.15%)
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$GLEN (-0.09%)

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$GLEN (-0.09%) phew, then another 400 into the depot today 😀

Solid companies go on such days immer⛏️

$GLEN (-0.09%) maybe something will happen with the limit order this week. I wouldn't have imagined that it would return to the buy range within 2 months 😅

I'm not allowed to take so much vacation🤣

position $GLEN (-0.09%) has now reached my personal target value in relation to the EK value.

The original consideration took place about 3-4 months ago after listening to a podcast regarding commodities

https://getqu.in/DHXaUi/

Knowing that this is a cyclical investment that sometimes shows prices below €4, I have enough imagination for a buy hold check position as shown in previous posts.

buy hold check position.

Now into the observer hammock as with $UKW (-0.33%)
$UNH (+0.11%)
$BLK
$D05 (+0.79%) and $VICI (+1.61%) .

(Blackrock and United Health continue to run small savings plans in the amount of the dividend).

And further on the way to making my position "full".

"Full" = in my case approx. 7000€ equity per position

Once I've done that, the individual share portfolio will look really nice and I'll add new positions.

But until then I still have a lot of work to do.

To $GLEN (-0.09%)

OPINION by

TIISETSO MOTSOENENG: The new boss of the copper industry? Glencore's big moment after the BHP-Anglo drama

With the Australian giant sidelined by UK takeover rules, Glencore is in a position to make a move.

The recent $49 billion takeover saga of BHP and Anglo American was a spectacle of strategic orchestration. But as the dust settles on BHP's retreat, a new opportunity is emerging for Glencore, a company that has quietly but handsomely profited at the center of the global energy transition.

With BHP now sidelined by UK takeover rules and unable to make another bid to Anglo for six months, Glencore is in an enviable position to make its move. The $70 billion-plus mining giant had been considering making a rival bid for Anglo, according to a Reuters report citing unnamed sources.

Glencore's interest, if true, is not just to expand its portfolio; it is a calculated move in the chess game of global energy transition. Adding Anglo's coveted copper operations would boost Glencore's copper production to nearly 2 million tons and appease skittish shareholders such as BlackRock, who have put pressure on the company to demonstrate its commitment to reducing carbon emissions and playing a bigger role in the global energy transition.

Copper is a crucial metal for the transition. It is used in everything from electric vehicles and power grids to construction, and demand is expected to increase as the world transitions to cleaner energy and the wider use of artificial intelligence. A stronger presence of this metal would set Glencore apart from its peers, some of which trade at a premium to Glencore.

But let's not kid ourselves: A deal between Glencore and Anglo won't be a walk in the park. Glencore will have to negotiate a deal that is attractive enough to convince Anglo's shareholders, but sharp enough to get regulatory approval. It's a delicate balance.

Still, Glencore has a lot going for it should it take on Anglo. For one thing, the company has established links in South Africa and its potential interest in the country's iron ore deposits, which BHP did not want, could make it a more suitable partner for Anglo.

Secondly, the failed BHP-Anglo deal has exposed the strategies and ambitions of both companies. Now it is up to Gary Nagle, Glencore's chief executive, to come up with a proposal that avoids the complexities and implementation risks that undermined BHP's takeover. That proposal must be compelling enough to convince shareholders to buy into the promises of Anglo's vision to run with the wind, chase the setting sun and discover what lies beyond the edge.

And given its poor track record on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), it's not far-fetched to assume Rio Tinto would skip this one. Analysts estimate that the company has had to write off a whopping 54 billion dollars from its balance sheet since 2007 due to missteps in its deals.

So what's the bottom line? With BHP out of the running for at least six months and Jakob Stausholm, Rio Tinto's chief executive, not about to face a poor M&A record or the wrath of shareholders, Glencore has a golden opportunity to make a name for itself. The next six months will be crucial and all eyes will be on Glencore. Will the company take the plunge and close the deal? Only time will tell, but one thing is beyond doubt: the story did not end last week.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/columnists/2024-06-04-tiisetso-motsoeneng-coppers-new-kingpin-glencores-moment-to-shine-after-bhp-anglo-drama/