Carl Zeiss Meditec

I will never buy German shares again. There is simply no stock market culture here and therefore no understanding of action, reaction and consequences on the stock market. The Americans are simply 200 years ahead of us.

22.11.2024

Snowflake rises up to 25% + Bitcoin almost at $100,000 + Rotation in MDax + Carl Zeiss Meditec falls to low since 2018 + Berenberg rates CTS Eventim a 'Buy' - target 100 euros

The Snowflake $SNOW (+0.17%) shares rose 25% after the data analytics provider raised its full-year product revenue guidance and announced that it has partnered with AI company Anthropic to expand its cloud services.

The Bitcoin $BTC (+1.01%) reached just under $100,000 overnight and currently stands at $99,000.

What do you think, will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in November, or even today?

The US bank JPMorgan expects only a few changes for the next index review by Deutsche Börse at the beginning of December. While everything should remain the same in the leading Dax index, analyst Pankaj Gupta expects a swap in the mid-cap index below it, the MDax, where, according to him, industrial recycler Befesa will probably make way for drug researcher Evotec $EVT (-2.09%) will have to give way. Befesa $BFSA (-0.64%) would be relegated to the SDax, the index of smaller stocks. In the TecDax, Gupta expects that SMA Solar $S92 (-1.2%) will make way for the internet service provider Ionos $IOS (+0.11%) Deutsche Börse will review the indices of the Dax family (Dax, MDax, SDax and TecDax) on Wednesday, December 4, and announce any changes after the close of trading in the US. The changes will come into effect on Monday, December 23.

The downturn in the share price of Carl Zeiss Meditec $AFX (+1.37%) continued on Thursday with a new six-year low. The trend at the medical technology manufacturer has been pointing downwards since 2021, and this trend has intensified in the current year since March. At that time, the shares were still trading above 123 euros. On Thursday, the drop of over four percent pushed them down to 54.45 euros. This marks the lowest level since April 2018. With brief exceptions in August and late October and early September, the shares have been trading below the 200-day line, which is a popular long-term indicator for chart-oriented investors, for months. Jack Reynolds-Clark from RBC Research did not paint a good picture for the company at the beginning of November, downgrading it to "Sector Perform" due to uncertain demand in the various end markets. He emphasized that the consensus for 2025 depicts a rather optimistic scenario that is difficult to justify.

The private bank Berenberg has raised its rating for CTS Eventim $EVD (-1.22%) to "Buy" with a target price of 100 euros. The event organizer presented mixed quarterly figures, wrote analyst Gerhard Orgonas on Thursday evening. He cut his earnings estimates until 2026, taking into account integration costs and a slightly lower ticketing margin.

• CTS Eventim increased its consolidated revenue by 15.8 percent to EUR 2.027 billion in the first nine months of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA grows by 12.1 percent to EUR 322.7 million in the same period. The company's management is sticking to its forecast and expects a significantly higher Adjusted EBITDA for the full year compared to the previous year.
• CTS Eventim records a 22.9 percent increase in revenue to EUR 564.6 million in the Ticketing segment and a 13.6 percent increase to EUR 1.494 billion in the Live Entertainment segment. The company is also awarded the contract for the construction and operation of a new large arena by Wien Holding.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Schloss Wachenheim EUR 0.60

Cummins Inc. USD 1.82

CRH 0.35 GBP

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

No time specified: Vinci Investor Day | Unilever Capital Markets Day

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: GDP (2nd release) 3Q calendar and seasonally adjusted yoy FORECAST: +0.2% yoy 1st release: +0.2% yoy 2nd quarter: -0.3% yoy calendar-adjusted yoy FORECAST: -0.2% yoy 1st release: -0.2% yoy 2nd quarter: -0.3% yoy
• 09:15 FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (1st release) November FORECAST: 49.0 PREV: 49.2 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (1st release) FORECAST: 48.1 PREV: 48.1
• 09:15 FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing (1st release) November FORECAST: 44.0 PREVIOUS: 44.5
• 09:30 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (1st release) November PROGNOSE: 51.8 PREVIOUS: 51.6 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (1st release) PROGNOSE: 48.3 PREVIOUS: 48.6
• 09:30 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing (1st release) November FORECAST: 43.0 PREVIOUS: 43.0
• 10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing Eurozone (1st release) November FORECAST: 51.5 previously: 51.6
• 10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing Eurozone (1st release) November PROGNOSE: 46.0 PREVIOUS: 46.0 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (1st release) PROGNOSE: 49.8 PREVIOUS: 50.0
• 10:30 UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (1st release) November FORECAST: 52.0 PREVIOUS: 52.0
• 10:30 UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (1st release) November FORECAST: 50.0 PREVIOUS: 49.9
• 15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Services (1st release) November FORECAST: 55.0 PREVIOUS: 55.0
• 15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (1st release) November FORECAST: 48.8 PREVIOUS: 48.5
• 16:00 US: Consumer Sentiment Index Uni Michigan (2nd survey) November FORECAST: 73.5 1st survey: 73.0 previous: 70.5

In the end, you can only hope that you don't regret it. European shares in the summer sale.

Today I bought the last tranche of Carl Zeiss Meditec $AFX (+1.37%) today. The reason is of course that I am still convinced of the company, but nobody can say how long it will be before the share comes back to life.

It could probably go down even further, but I have decided not to buy any more from now on as the position is large enough and otherwise my risk management will no longer work.

Overall, I have increased my position size from around 1% to just over 3%, which already represents a clear commitment to a German company, which is known to be particularly volatile.

The same applies to L'Oreal $OR (-0.72%) here, too, I have finished buying with a buy-in of €365 and have reached a position size that is already approaching the 4% portfolio weighting. The shares will probably continue to fall for the time being, which I will simply have to hold on to.

I would now rather concentrate on other opportunities such as Thermo Fisher $TMO (-1.14%) where I have already doubled down this month. Here, however, I can well imagine buying significantly more if prices fall.

It cannot be ruled out that, if the market as a whole weakens, LVMH $MC (-0.03%) and $ASML (-0.55%) a first purchase could take place. With the four stocks already mentioned here (+ $NOVO B (-0.08%) ) mentioned here, I believe that the potential of Western European equities has already been fully exhausted.

It's just a difficult case. Europe is currently more attractive than ever before compared to the hot American market. Either you can seize the opportunity of the decade NOW and bet on a recovery of the European economy, then the champagne corks will pop here in two years' time. Or there will be a complete implosion of the European economy (and then the double-digit losses in the portfolio will be the least of our problems)

Reallocation in the portfolio:

Out went $AFX (+1.37%)

New in $ASML (-0.55%)

The decision was not easy, as I am still convinced of Meditec, but unfortunately the market simply sees things differently at the moment.

I see more upside for ASML as a shovel seller and more downside for Meditec with the possible tariff war between USA - Europe - China ( Asia accounts for a third of sales in 2023 according to Trading View )

Meditec remains on the watch while I wait for the quarterly figures on 11.12

Analyst updates, 04.11.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- BERENBERG raises the target price for SHELL from GBP 31 to GBP 31.50. Buy. | $SHEL (+0.5%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for MTU from EUR 270 to EUR 350. Buy. | $MTX (+0.11%)

- BRYAN GARNIER raises the price target for HELLOFRESH from EUR 8.50 to EUR 10. Neutral. | $HFG (-0.94%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SCOUT24 from EUR 84 to EUR 92. Buy. | $G24 (+0.09%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SANTANDER from EUR 5.75 to EUR 5.80. Buy. | $SAN (-3.83%)

- RBC raises the target price for NEXT PLC from GBP 105 to GBP 108. Sector Perform. | $NXT

- UBS raises the price target for CHEVRON from USD 192 to USD 194. Buy. | $CVX (+0.8%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- UBS lowers the price target for BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY from USD 806.724 to USD 796.021. Buy. | $BRK.B (+0.44%)

- CITIGROUP lowers the price target for STMICRO from EUR 36 to EUR 30. Buy. | $STMPA (-1.67%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ASM INTERNATIONAL from EUR 806 to EUR 716. Overweight. | $ASM (+0.26%)

- RBC downgrades CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from Outperform to Sector-Perform and lowers target price from EUR 85 to EUR 70. | $AFX (+1.37%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for KION from EUR 65 to EUR 58. Buy. | $KGX (-0.79%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades JENOPTIK from Neutral to Outperform and lowers target price from EUR 32 to EUR 30. | $JEN (-0.76%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 22 to EUR 21. Outperform. | $AIXA (-0.06%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for FIELMANN from EUR 45.70 to EUR 44.60. Neutral. | $FIE (-0.19%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from 65.50 EUR to 63.60 EUR. Sell. | $KBX (-1.48%)

- GOLDMAN downgrades STANDARD CHARTERED to Neutral. Target price GBP 9.37. | $STAN (-2.15%)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for GENERALI from EUR 31.50 to EUR 30.50. Buy. | $G (-0.59%)

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for PHILIPS from EUR 35 to EUR 32. Buy. | $PHIA (-0.1%)

Analyst updates, 29.10. 👇🏼

⬆️⬆️⬆️

• JEFFERIES raises the price target for SAP $SAP (-0.33%) from EUR 230 to EUR 255. Buy.
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM $DTE (+0.22%) from EUR 33 to EUR 39. Buy.
• ODDO BHF raises the target price for ALLIANZ
  SE
  $ALV (-0.6%) from EUR 288 to EUR 324. Outperform.
• ODDO BHF raises the price target for DWS
  $DWS (-0.63%) from EUR 38 to EUR 39. Neutral.
• METZLER raises the price target for LUFTHANSA $LHA (-1.52%) from EUR 5.70 to EUR 6.40. Hold.
• METZLER raises the price target for NEMETSCHEK
  $NEM (+0.3%) from EUR 89 to EUR 91. Hold.
• METZLER raises the price target for FRIEDRICH
  VORWERK $VH2 (+0.27%) from EUR 29.20 to EUR 38. Buy.
• GOLDMAN raises the price target for SYMRISE $SY1 (-0.14%) from EUR 127 to EUR 131. Neutral.

⬇️⬇️⬇️

• BOFA lowers the price target for MUNICH
  RE
  $MUV2 (-0.66%) from EUR 550 to EUR 535. Buy.
• WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for WACKER
  CHEMICALS $WCH (-1.8%) from EUR 136 to EUR 133. Buy.
• WARBURG RESEARCH downgrades STEICO
  $ST5 (-1.09%) from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 42 to EUR 29.
• METZLER lowers the price target for SALZGITTER $SZG (-0.96%) from EUR 17 to EUR 15.50. Hold.
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SGL
  CARBON $SGL (-2.64%) from EUR 10.80 to EUR 10.60. Buy.
• LBBW downgrades PHILIPS $PHIA (-0.1%) from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 30 to EUR 26.
• GOLDMAN downgrades ABB
  $ABBNY (+0.9%) from Buy to Neutral. Target price CHF 52.
• UBS lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC $AFX (+1.37%) from EUR 71 to EUR 65. Neutral.
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for STMICRO
  $STMPA (-1.67%) from EUR 42 to EUR 35. Overweight.

$AFX (+1.37%) New partnership and -6%?

Or what news caused this?

15.10.2024

Pre-close calls at Porsche and VW + Carl Zeiss with new partnership + Share placement weighs on Deutsche Bank after the close + New quarterly figures start today + SHARES IN THE FOCUS: Freenet at high since 2018 and optimism ahead of quarterly figures

Porsche AG $P911 (-2.03%) on the other hand, lost 2.0 percent. A pre-close call by the car manufacturer did not go down well with investors. Also VW $VOW (-1.34%) also fell by 0.5 percent. The car manufacturer also organized a pre-close call on Monday. However, no details were known by the close of trading. In addition to weak sales in China, the value of shareholdings is also under scrutiny: In the previous week, analysts at Baader had reduced the valuation of the stake in NorthVolt, in which Volkswagen holds a 20 percent stake, from 10 billion euros to zero.

Carl Zeiss $AFX (+1.37%) is entering into a partnership with Hyundai Mobis to develop transparent displays in windscreens. Mass production is due to start in five years and could raise safety standards in vehicles

The shares of Deutsche Bank $DBK (-2.71%) came under pressure in after-hours trading on Monday. They recently lost around 1.2 percent to 16.15 euros on the Tradegate trading platform. As reported by the Bloomberg news agency, Deutsche Bank is planning to place 16 million of its own shares at a price of 16.01 euros. Such a share placement dilutes the shares of existing shareholders. The bank's shares rose by almost twelve percent last month.

The shares of Freenet $FNTN (-0.07%) rose to their highest level since March 2018 on Monday. The shares of the mobile and TV provider recently rose by 1.3% to €27.48, making them one of the strongest stocks in the MDax mid-cap index. They also broke away even more clearly from the 21-day line as an indicator of the short-term trend, which they had already left behind last week. In a study at the beginning of the week, Warburg analyst Simon Stippig takes an optimistic view of the upcoming figures for the third quarter. Above all, information on Freenet's medium-term ambitions could become a price driver, he wrote. The dividend yield with the potential for additional growth from the mobile provider's television business is attractive, he said.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Vinci EUR 1.05

AbbVie USD 1.55

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

11:55 Unitedhealth quarterly figures

12:25 Johnson & Johnson quarterly figures

12:45 Bank of America quarterly figures

13:25 Goldman Sachs quarterly figures

14:00 Citigroup quarterly figures

22:05 United Airlines quarterly figures

23:30 Rio Tinto plc Operation Report 3Q

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Docmorris Trading Update 3Q | Ericsson Quarterly Figures | Sulzer Order Intake

17:45 LVMH quarterly figures

19:00 Telekom Austria quarterly figuresn

economic data

• 08:00 UK: Labor market data September Unemployment benefit recipients Unemployment rate 3 months (ILO) PROGNOSE: 4.1% PREVIOUS: 4.1%
• 11:00 EU: Industrial Production August Eurozone FORECAST: +1.6% yoy/-1.2% yoy previously: -0.3% yoy/-2.2% yoy
• 11:00 DE: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index October Forecast: 9.0 points previous: 3.6 points Economic situation Forecast: -84.3 points previous: -84.5 points
• 14:30 US: Empire State Manufacturing Index October FORECAST: 0.5 previous: 11.5

Despite the loss on the $MA (+0.8%) trade, more than satisfactory with the KO bills.

In addition $AFX (+1.37%) which seems to have finally bottomed out.

Greetings to all chart technicians $AFX (+1.37%)
currently in an uptrend since last Friday but fails at the important mark below 63€

I am actually a fundi for me the share is currently undervalued anyway and will rise again in the long term. How do you see it at the moment? Are these important signs of a short-term recovery that speak in favor of a BUY? Or are they just the usual price fluctuations and we have not yet overcome the lows?

As I see it, as an absolute layman, we are in a corridor between around €55 and €65. We can't fall below €55 so that we don't go any further downhill and from €65 it's exciting that the way up is clear. Is that more or less correct?