It is April 2020, and I am a young and hopeful student who has been studying the theory of financial education for several years and decide to take advantage of the supposedly unique opportunity of the "crash" to finally enter the stock market despite limited capital.

Theoretically, the idea was that it should be easy to get in during a difficult market phase, as all assets should be cheap due to the uncertainty. At least cheaper than they were before. When markets fall, multiples fall too. So even if you don't get everything right or even get a lot wrong, from a purely mathematical point of view you should still be better off than someone who got in in 2018 or 2019. So far, this logic is actually conclusive.

But the pandemic crash was not a normal crash. And I actually find it far too interesting not to talk about it.

In my experience, there is still a lot of talk today about the new markets in 2001 and the real estate bubble in 2008. However, the exciting market phase of the pandemic has hardly been looked back on at all. This may also be due to the fact that we don't feel we can look back at it yet, as we can still feel the effects and have barely really overcome them. However, it is now slowly becoming apparent that a new era has dawned on the market, which is primarily about tariffs, trade deficits and currencies.

But what makes the pandemic a bad time to start?

If you look back at the charts of some securities (and for the sake of clarity, I would like to refer mainly to equities here), you can see several things.

In the case of shares with a gravitas such as $BRK.B (+0.39%) only a tiny corona dent can be seen on the long-term chart. From this you can see that it didn't really matter when you invested. However, the earlier the better. It was important to invest at all, but it was not necessary to wait for a specific point in time. However, this even applies to clear pandemic losers such as $BKNG (+0.09%) and $EVD (+0.54%) .

For some stocks like $AMZN (-0.52%) and $MSFT (-0.07%) the entry point during the actual crash was not ideal. There was an optimal entry point for both stocks recently, but this would not have been apparent until 2-3 years after the crash. Both stocks survived the pandemic almost unscathed, but were then affected by severe secondary factors that put the business under pressure.

Stocks like $TMO (+1.04%) or $AFX (-3.7%) were considered pandemic winners. You could have picked them up at the beginning of the crash ... or you could have left them alone and got them back 5 years later at exactly the same price as before the pandemic started.

And now the worst category: hype stocks. The absolute catastrophe happened to all those who were looking for opportunities where there were actually none. Whether investments in emerging markets or hopes for the future in $ZM (+0.83%) and $FVRR (-2.06%) - Money that was taken out of the broad market ended up largely concentrated in assets that will not reach their ATH for another 20 years. Anyone wanting to be in it for the long term found their Waterloo in the pandemic. Some companies such as $EUZ (+0.64%) or $SRT (-0.87%) may well be doing great things. But here the "crash" was simply the absolute worst entry opportunity of the entire decade.

Correction Edit: I only found a group of stocks that I really needed to buy in the crash and that was Big Oil. There were certainly other stocks that were a bit cheaper at the time. But for the most part, it was not essential to enter at the low point in order to make good returns. That is what made this market phase so difficult. The good stocks were NOT extremely cheap, but there were many bad stocks that were extremely expensive. For newcomers, such a situation is incredibly difficult to navigate.

I closed 2020 with +12% and 2021 with +8% only to get a -22% in 2022. So I didn't make any returns at all in the first 3 years and just paid a lesson.

I thought I would have been smart at least not to have entered in 2018/2019 when all shares were valued much higher on average. But I might have gained experience in these two years so that I would have had more guidance in 2020. Or I could have started in 2022/2023, when there were no more hype stocks and you could pour money into the market with a watering can and it almost always turned into a flower.

I recently saw the portfolio of a friend who restarted his portfolio in 2022. Almost the same portfolio size as mine. However, while I have made 7% p.a. since the start of my portfolio, he has an IZF of 15%. With a portfolio size of 100k, this means that I am sitting on €12,000 book profits and he on €33,000

Backtests are currently showing that my strategy has really put me to sleep and put me to sleep by ALL known and common indices over 5 years. The only consolation here is really the 3-year performance, where it is clear that I can keep up with the major indices and also leave a few big names behind me.

So on a positive note: I'm getting better.

Super Micro Computer lowers revenue forecast for 2025 + Teamviewer aims for double-digit growth again + Siemens Energy confirms forecast + Weak device business weighs on Carl Zeiss Meditec

Super Micro Computer $SMCI (+3.41%)sees higher Q2 results

• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) late Tuesday reported preliminary Q2 non-GAAP earnings of $0.58 to $0.60 per diluted share, up 5% from a year ago.
• Analysts polled by FactSet had expected $0.61.
• Preliminary net revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31 was $5.6 billion to $5.7 billion, up 54% from the year-ago period.
• Analysts polled by FactSet had expected $5.77 billion.
• For Q3, the company expects non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.46 to $0.62 on revenue of $5 billion to $6 billion.
• Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect $0.65 billion and $5.92 billion, respectively.
• For fiscal 2025, the company now expects revenue of $23.5 billion to $25 billion compared to its previous guidance of $26 billion to $30 billion.
• Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect $24.11 billion.
• The company's shares rose 3.6% in after-hours trading.

Teamviewer $TMV (+0.05%)wants to return to double-digit growth in the medium term

• The software provider Teamviewer intends to accelerate its growth again in the coming years by expanding IT automation and digitally transforming the industry.
• From 2027, the MDAX-listed company aims to return to double-digit percentage annual revenue growth, as the Göppingen-based company announced on Wednesday. By 2028, turnover is expected to climb above one billion euros.
• According to the plans of CEO Oliver Steil, the revenue share of large corporate customers in the so-called enterprise business should then grow to over 40 percent of total revenue, compared to less than a quarter in 2024.
• The higher profitability of the business is expected to increase the Group's adjusted operating margin (adjusted EBITDA) to between 44% and 45%.
• For the current year, the specialist for remote maintenance software has set itself the target of currency-adjusted revenue growth of 5.1% to 7.7%.
• This would correspond to pro forma sales of 778 to 797 million euros, compared to 740 million in the previous year.
• The pro forma figures are based on the assumption that the acquisition of 1E, which was completed at the end of January 2025, would have taken place at the beginning of 2024.
• Teamviewer in its current form is expected to generate revenue of EUR 697 million to EUR 712 million - analysts had previously assumed a figure at the lower end of the range on average.
• The pro-forma adjusted operating margin should be around 43% in 2025.
• Teamviewer had already presented key figures for 2024.
• Revenue increased by 7 percent to 671.4 million euros.
• The adjusted operating margin was 44 percent.
• Below the line, Teamviewer achieved a profit of 123.1 million euros after 114 million euros a year earlier.

Siemens Energy $ENR (+1.65%)confirms forecast

• Following a robust first quarter, the energy technology group Siemens Energy has confirmed its forecast for the current fiscal year 2024/25.
• Comparable revenue is expected to increase by eight to ten percent in the fiscal year ending September 2025, the company announced on Wednesday when presenting detailed figures.
• The management expects the adjusted operating margin to be between three and five percent.
• The grid and gas technology businesses in particular are expected to contribute to this.
• The Munich-based company is still aiming for an after-tax profit of around the break-even point.
• In the first quarter (as of the end of December), Siemens Energy benefited from continued good business and increased sales year-on-year from 7.65 billion to 8.9 billion euros.
• The operating result adjusted for special effects increased from 208 to 481 million euros.
• The gas business made the largest contribution to earnings, followed by grid technology.
• The Group thus confirmed preliminary figures from the end of January.
• Although earnings after tax fell from 1.6 billion to 252 million euros, Siemens Energy had benefited in the same quarter of the previous year from the sale of shares in its Indian energy business to the former parent company Siemens.

Weak equipment business weighs on Carl Zeiss Meditec $AFX (-3.7%)

• Continued weak demand, particularly in the equipment business, has overshadowed the start to the new fiscal year for medical technology provider Carl Zeiss Meditec.
• Thanks to the recent acquisition of Dutch Ophthalmic Research Center (D.O.R.C.), the company's revenue increased by a good 3 percent to around 491 million euros in the first three months of the financial year to the end of December.
• Adjusted for the acquisition and currency effects, however, there was a decline of 7 percent, the company announced in Jena on Wednesday.
• However, incoming orders and orders on hand increased significantly, according to the information provided, which has led to cautious optimism among management.
• The recovery in orders, coupled with a good response to the company's new products, "gives us confidence that we will return to solid organic growth in the coming months," said Group CEO Markus Weber.
• The management confirmed the targets for the year.
• These envisage moderate sales growth and a stable to slightly higher operating result (Ebita).
• However, this key figure fell significantly in the first quarter to 35.2 million euros, compared to 46 million euros in the previous year.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Exxon Mobil USD 0.99
• Target 1.12 USD
• Paccar USD 0.33

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 08:30 Softbank Group quarterly figures
• 13:00 Kraft Heinz quarterly figures
• 22:00 Cisco Systems quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Carl Zeiss Meditec | Siemens Energy | Teamviewer | Essilor-Luxottica | Heidelberger Druckmaschinen | ABN Amro | Heineken quarterly figures
• 07:25 Telecom Italia preliminary annual results and strategy 2025-2027
• 07:30 Voestalpine 9 months results | Jenoptik preliminary annual results
• 07:45 Ahold Delhaize annual results
• 08:00 Verbio half-year figures
• 10:00 Deutsche Börse BI-PK | Voestalpine PK
• 10:30 Siemens Energy analyst and press conference
• 14:00 Verbio Analyst Conference
• 17:40 Michelin annual results

• Economic data

14:30 US: Consumer prices January PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+2.9% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy/+2.9% yoy Core Consumer Prices PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+3.1% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+3.2% yoy

14:30 US: Real income January

16:00 US: Fed Chairman Powell, hearing in the Financial Services Committee of the US House of Representatives

16:30 US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the government Energy Information Administration (EIA) previous week

18:00 US: Fed Atlanta President Bostic, speech at National Association ofCorporate Directors (NACD)

18:30 UK: Governing Council member Nagel, speech on "r* in the monetary policy universe: navigational star or dark matter?"

Trade went as planned, I bought another 50 shares on 29.01. at € 113. Now I can make my peace with tech 😉😇. The loss pot was still full due to the stopping out of $AFX (-3.7%) was still full. @Tenbagger2024 Sorry, I didn't have to hold for as long as you feared. The 10% I had planned and then gone again were reached faster than expected. I hope everyone else continues to enjoy $NVDA (-1.17%) good figures in 3 weeks and maximum share price growth. And now I'm going shopping for the weekend with the money. Aloha.

At $AFX (-3.7%) looks like it is bottoming out. What are your thoughts? I am down approx. 25% and am considering buying another tranche.

My development in this area has been very mixed. After I sold in December $WBA (+0.31%) after a risky purchase - to lower the buy in - with +/- 0, my investment in $AFX (-3.7%) was abruptly terminated, leaving me with a hefty loss, and shortly afterwards I unfortunately also lost my shares in $UNH (-1.67%) but still with a profit of 8%. Today I decided to recoup my losses and sold my $BMY (+0.47%) sold. It was a nice trade, plus the €245 dividend plus the payment on February 3rd. The uncertainty in the sector has become too great for me and I want to watch from the sidelines what the new US government will do. Marty Makary as the planned head of the FDA will certainly not strike as brutally as some fear, but there could be changes and difficulties in the area of approval procedures. This would also affect Bristol, which should and must bring a few good products from its pipeline onto the market in the next few years. The acquisition of Karuma together with the approval of KarXT has provided a brief boost, but is not enough to compensate for the expiry of patent protection for Revlimid, Opdivo and especially Eliquis in the next few years. They account for over USD 12 billion of sales and patent protection expires in the EU in 2026 and in the US in 2028. This does not mean that Eliquis will no longer be sold, but a not insignificant proportion is likely to be lost to generics. In addition, CMS has already negotiated price reductions of 56% for 2026. Coupled with the political uncertainties, I have taken the money with me for the time being and will wait and see. I still have to deal with $NOVO B (-1.98%) ...., which is currently the biggest loss-maker in my portfolio with a drop of almost 17%.

Please let me know your assessment of the market in this sector.

Happy New Year everyone! We are starting the new year with adjustments to the Sina ETF. (The performance here below somehow no longer corresponds to the actual performance, but so be it...) After this post you'll have peace and quiet from my ETF again :D

I sold some stocks and invested the dividends I received last year. That left me with 19 euros in cash, so it's still a 40-share ETF ;)

If this were my only portfolio, I would probably have held more cash and not reinvested directly, as the entry point doesn't always seem optimal. But I also proceeded without regard to entry points.

For the question of how high the profits or losses were, please refer to the portfolio.

Out are:

$STLAM (+0.27%) (loss)

$AFX (-3.7%) (loss)

$MC (-1.1%) (loss)

$OR (+0.08%) (loss)

$7203 (-0.88%) (loss)

$D05 (-1.62%) (Profit)

$RHM (+1.9%) (Profit)

$ENR (+1.65%) (Profit; also dropped from my "real" portfolio)

Partial sale:

$WMT (+1.45%) at 50%

Increased by:

$AAPL (+2.59%)

$MSFT (-0.07%)

$ASML (+0.24%) Since the position was down over 20%, but I am convinced in the long term

$GOOGL (-3.03%)

New additions:

$BKNG (+0.09%)

$JPM (+1.29%)

$NU (-0.19%)

$COST (+0.27%)

$AFL (+1.79%)

$INTC (-1.71%)

$CRM (+0.17%)

$NOVO B (-1.98%)

How should I start? My portfolio has increased by almost 3.75 times, even though I've been struggling with a few problems since June and can hardly save any more.

My BAföG has not yet been approved, which is why I have to be financially cautious and hope that I can make ends meet with my remaining funds.

The year has been exciting - I can't guarantee you whether the figures here are accurate, and to be honest I don't think they are, because so far they've almost always been wrong. Nevertheless, it gives you a good insight into my portfolio.

And my goals for 2025? Honestly, I have no idea! I'll have to see how my studies and my life as a whole are going before I can set any concrete goals, but I'll have some fun: Here are my top and flop 5 that I still hold.

$SOFI (-0.68%)
$BTC (+1%)
$FWONA
$D05 (-1.62%)
$FTNT (-1.07%)

$AIXA (+1.55%)
$EVT (+0%)
$AFX (-3.7%)
$MRNA (+2.46%)
$CELH

I wish you all a happy new year!

year!

Analyst updates, 17.12.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

• - UBS raises the price target for AMAZON from USD 230 to USD 264. Buy. $AMZN (-0.52%)
• - CITIGROUP raises the target price for ALLIANZ SE from EUR 286 to EUR 314.40. Neutral. $ALV (+2%)
• - BARCLAYS raises the target price for DHL GROUP from EUR 37.50 to EUR 38. Equal-Weight. $DHL (+0.8%)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades AIRBUS from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 155 to EUR 185. $AIR (+1.52%)
• - BERENBERG raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 525 to EUR 552. Hold. $MUV2 (+1.68%)
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for ADESSO from EUR 80 to EUR 100. Hold. $ADN1 (-3.08%)
• - WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for FMC from EUR 31 to EUR 36. Sell. $FME (+0.63%)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for AUTO1 from EUR 12 to EUR 20. Buy. $AG1 (+1.58%)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for MTU from EUR 329 to EUR 337. Hold. $MTX (+2.01%)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for HENSOLDT from EUR 37 to EUR 41. Buy. $HAG (+5.12%)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for ROLLS-ROYCE from GBP 5.55 to GBP 6.30. Buy. $RR. (+1.25%)
• - BOFA raises the target price for INFINEON from EUR 36 to EUR 40. Buy. $IFX (+0.74%)
• - BOFA raises the price target for STMICRO from EUR 29 to EUR 30. Buy. $STMPA (-0.64%)
• - BOFA raises the target price for NOKIA from EUR 4.07 to EUR 4.58. Neutral. $NOKIA (+1.16%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

• - JPMORGAN downgrades TRANSMEDICS from Overweight to Neutral and lowers target price from 116 USD to 75 USD. $TMDX (+1.61%)
• - BOFA lowers the price target for SILTRONIC from EUR 59 to EUR 46. Underperform. $WAF (-1.51%)
• - HSBC lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 66 to EUR 54. Hold. $AFX (-3.7%)
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for HEIDELBERGER DRUCK from EUR 1.25 to EUR 1. Hold. $HBGRY
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for EVONIK from EUR 25 to EUR 21. Buy. $EVK (-0.25%)
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for NORDEX from EUR 17 to EUR 14. Buy. $NDX1 (+0.7%)