2Wk·

Quo vadis healthcare sector?

My development in this area has been very mixed. After I sold in December $WBA (-1.64%) after a risky purchase - to lower the buy in - with +/- 0, my investment in $AFX (+1.52%) was abruptly terminated, leaving me with a hefty loss, and shortly afterwards I unfortunately also lost my shares in $UNH (-0.18%) but still with a profit of 8%. Today I decided to recoup my losses and sold my $BMY (-0.67%) sold. It was a nice trade, plus the €245 dividend plus the payment on February 3rd. The uncertainty in the sector has become too great for me and I want to watch from the sidelines what the new US government will do. Marty Makary as the planned head of the FDA will certainly not strike as brutally as some fear, but there could be changes and difficulties in the area of approval procedures. This would also affect Bristol, which should and must bring a few good products from its pipeline onto the market in the next few years. The acquisition of Karuma together with the approval of KarXT has provided a brief boost, but is not enough to compensate for the expiry of patent protection for Revlimid, Opdivo and especially Eliquis in the next few years. They account for over USD 12 billion of sales and patent protection expires in the EU in 2026 and in the US in 2028. This does not mean that Eliquis will no longer be sold, but a not insignificant proportion is likely to be lost to generics. In addition, CMS has already negotiated price reductions of 56% for 2026. Coupled with the political uncertainties, I have taken the money with me for the time being and will wait and see. I still have to deal with $NOVO B (+0.57%) ...., which is currently the biggest loss-maker in my portfolio with a drop of almost 17%.


Please let me know your assessment of the market in this sector.

06.01
Bristol-Myers Squibb logo
Sold x240 at €54.51
€13,082.40
23.68%
9
9 Comments

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Well, cashing out now in the healthcare sector is probably the worst moment for the next few years. If you can, I would just wait until the situation eases. Innovation and cost reduction are still to come for the industry.
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@topicswithhead What would be your top picks from the healthcare sector?
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@Finanzielle-Freiheit difficult to say. From Germany it would be $BNTX. There are many candidates in America. $AMGN $ABBV $LLY. Europe $NOVO B $GMAB. But $GOOGL or $META also have AI projects that are quite interesting. Alphafold, for example.
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@topicswithhead I was cashed out on the others 😇. And I took the profits on BMY. I'm with you, wait and see. The sector is fundamentally very interesting and I will invest in it again
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I read a report today that the medical devices sector has probably been the worst performing sector for two years. I think it could also be related to the weight loss products. In other words, the insulin device manufacturers have been beaten up. But this has not affected $ISRG intuitively. Unfortunately, I never managed to get in here, as the share rarely corrected and was always expensive. Perhaps $GMED is a good alternative here. As far as Trump and the uncertainty are concerned, there are also good alternatives in Europe in the pharmaceutical sector. Such as $UCB or $YPSN. But I think US pharma stocks will continue to rise in the long term. Perhaps now is even a good time to get in. I have $VRTX and $CORT in my portfolio. Furthermore, $TMDX ( @BamBamInvest @Memo0606 what's going on there today?) was also presented here from the medical sector and has already been bought by some. I also find the growth and niche stocks $LMAT and $BONEX
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@Tenbagger2024 $TMDX was recommended by analysts :

is again rated "Overweight" at Piper Sandler with a price target of USD 90:

"We track the number of organ transplants and the number of flights of Transmedics' medical jet fleet each month. Both data sources suggest that TMDX will exceed Wall Street's revenue estimates in the fourth quarter of 2024.

While overall transplant volumes are declining, early machine perfusion data suggests an increasing share that could more than offset volume weakness and return product sales to sequential growth. TMDX also saw a record number of flights in December (and Q4 2024), which should boost service revenue. Looking ahead, we expect the company's strong flight performance to continue here in 2025.

We remain somewhat cautious on second-half weighted guidance, which assumes a contribution from TMDX's new programs, but believe the bar is achievable as market growth materializes. The shares are trading at an attractive entry point for this industry-changing company, in our view, and we reiterate our OW rating."
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@Tenbagger2024 Thank you for your assessment
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@Tenbagger2024 More analysts have upgraded, high short ratio, flights have risen sharply, etc.
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I have two sector ETFs: IT and health care. One is fun, the other not so much. But I always think to myself: Great, good entry opportunities.
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