$NVDA (-2,56 %)

NVIDIA today presented its figures for the fourth quarter of the 2026 financial year (as at the end of January). As expected, everything was dominated by the unbroken demand for AI infrastructure - and once again it is clear that the market does not measure NVIDIA by "good", but by "incredible".

What we know and how I classify the figures:

1) Expectations were extremely high

Analysts had expected EPS of around USD 1.52 in advance - which corresponds to growth of over 70% compared to the previous year. So the benchmark is brutal: NVIDIA must not only grow, but constantly move the bar. (Source: Analyst estimates prior to publication)

2) Starting position: record series continues

In the last reported quarter, sales were already around USD 57 billion, driven primarily by the data center segment with sales of over USD 50 billion. Demand for AI GPUs was so strong that some chips were sold out - especially the Blackwell generation.

The trend is clear: cloud hyperscalers, enterprise AI and national AI programs continue to soak up capacity.

3) The real driver remains the data center

NVIDIA is no longer a "GPU gaming company". The data center business is the core - and acts as the infrastructure layer for the entire AI economy.

As long as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta and Co. continue to aggressively increase their CapEx budgets, NVIDIA will remain the biggest beneficiary.

4) The market pays less attention to the past than to guidance

As always, the reaction will depend less on the reported numbers than on the outlook. The key question is:

- Will growth remain > 50%?

- Will the gross margin remain in the mid-70% range?

- Are there indications of demand normalization?

Historically, NVIDIA has beaten expectations in 20 of the last 22 quarters - which explains why the market is almost pricing in perfection.

5) Valuation remains the key risk

With a high multiple and enormous expectations, NVIDIA is not a value case. It is a momentum and structural growth theme.

The real risk would not be weak growth, but a narrative shift:

If investors start to believe that the AI CapEx peak has been reached, the valuation could compress quickly.

6) The bigger picture: AI as an infrastructure boom

We are probably still in phase 1 of the AI cycle - the infrastructure buildout.

Historically (internet, cloud), it is the pick-and-shovel vendors that earn the most in this phase. NVIDIA is currently exactly that: the shovel vendor in the gold rush.

My conclusion:

NVIDIA remains the single most important stock in the entire tech ecosystem. The numbers once again confirm that AI investments are not just hype, but a global investment cycle.

In the short term, the guidance will determine the share price reaction. In the long term, the crucial question remains: how long can this demand supercycle last?

What do you think - will we see several more years of hyper-growth or are we slowly approaching the CapEx peak?

$NVDA (-2,56 %)
$AMD (-3,16 %)
$MSFT (-0,48 %)
$ASML (-5,28 %)
$TSM (-4,34 %)

#ki
#künstlicheinteligenz

I actually had individual stocks like $6861 (+0,01 %)
$6920
$7012 (-3,94 %)
$2802 (-0,33 %) on the screen. Why has it now become the $XNKY (-1,46 %) become?

ETF instead of individual stocks:

Instead of having to choose between the Japanese tech giants, I wanted to reduce the complexity by adding the 225 largest stocks to my portfolio.

Momentum affinity:

Since I am a fan of momentum (also have Europe Momentum in the core), the price weighting of the Nikkei 225 suits me more than the classic market capitalization.

Although Japan is already included in the $FWRG (-1,42 %) I am now deliberately overweighting it. I believe that Japan still has a lot of potential to develop.

My aim is to realize gains from my individual stocks such as $ASML (-5,28 %) and $GOOGL (-0,59 %) as soon as a return of 200% has been achieved. Then I take the stake out and shift into the ETFs. This is how I prepare myself for times when I have to worry less about my portfolio and it becomes a self-runner.

I've realized that I spend too much time on the stock market and I want to reduce that.

My core should consist of 75% in future

- $FWRG (-1,42 %)

- $IEFM (-0,95 %)

- $EQAC (-1,56 %)

- $XNKY (-1,46 %)

- $EWG2 (+0,5 %)

- $BTC (-0,49 %)

Satellite with the mentioned profits and individual assets or altcoins at 25%.

My USA share is currently 40%, Europe 16%, Asia 12%, gold 12%, crypto 8%. I have the rest in $XEON (+0,03 %) lying around.

The USA share should not exceed 50%, as I believe in Europe, emerging markets and Japan.

@Multibagger has put me to sleep with 10.33% miles 😛 Should I be ashamed now? 😏😬🙈

All joking aside, it was a volatile month,

drivers were $IREN (-7,48 %)
$RKLB (+0,84 %) and $PNG (-4,95 %)

The warrants on $ASML (-5,28 %) and silver, as well as $HIMS (-1,1 %) and $SOFI (-1,27 %) ...

It was a good start to the year :)

Top Movers

$ASML (-5,28 %) + 34%

$JEDI (-0,33 %) +23%

$SLVY (+1,68 %) +22%

$8002 (-4,33 %) +17%

$KLAC (-4,77 %) +16%

Top Loosers

$HIMS (-1,1 %) -17%

$XS3087774306 (-4,92 %) -16%

$AOF (+3,71 %) -15%

$UNH (-0,68 %) -14%

$QCOM (-1,01 %) -12%

$ASML (-5,28 %)

I like the ASML chart very much at the moment. I will now go long here. TP1 1247, TP2 (depending on momentum) 1260€ - 1270€

SL at 1195€

CRV at 2.71

Security: DE000VJ5EMN2

As announced in my strategy update, I consistently pull the ripcord on my high-flyers as soon as the targets are reached. Today I got serious.

$ASML (-5,28 %) Sold 2 shares at +100%.

$GOOGL (-0,59 %) Sold 7 shares at +200 %.

My original investment is completely back in the account. This means that the remaining shares (3x ASML, 7x Alphabet) in my portfolio are now pure profit positions.

The money now goes into the $IEFM (-0,95 %)

Good morning dear community.

As things have become a little more uncomfortable on the stock market recently, I'm wondering where there are now good opportunities to invest money in good, profitable companies.

Which stocks do you have on your radar?

For me it is among others in the USA

$AMZN (-2,34 %)

$MSFT (-0,48 %)

$GOOGL (-0,59 %)

$NOW (+2,94 %)

$NFLX (-0,39 %)

In Europe

$2GB (-4,1 %)

$WKL (-0,82 %)

$ASML (-5,28 %)

$DB1 (+0,83 %)

These are just a few examples.

What else could you add?

Best regards 💥🗡️