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$SSAB A (+0,22 %)
$ASML (-0,78 %)
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$SNDK
$V (-0,64 %)
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Currently my share of$ASML (-0,78 %) 7.5% of my portfolio and am 60% up

I am currently considering selling 25% of it and buying the first tranche $MA (-2,02 %) buy the first tranche

my $V (-0,64 %) position is already full.

However, my financial share is also 20% of the total portfolio, which I feel very comfortable with.

my strategic way of investing is rather conventional without much risk on companies with moats

Thanks for your opinion.

Lately I've been reading more and more that we're welcoming new people to the community. And people who are new to the investment world.

It's really great that the topic of shares is finally not such a niche topic in Germany.

In the same breath, an appeal to new investors: We're in a bubble here and the majority only post their huge profits here. Don't let this put you off or unsettle you. You will make mistakes at the beginning and feel insecure. The best way to counter this is to read up and form your own opinion rather than blindly picking stocks.

Hence my idea, my biggest mistakes to date 🤠

$ASML (-0,78 %) Sold at €900 because I got scared of heights.

$WMT (-0,85 %) Sold at €50 because I didn't believe in the business model.

At the $GME (-0,35 %) went in with a lever and of course everything was liquidated 😀 .

Oh, I could tell you a few more stories. 😃

Have a nice Sunday.

In my view, this was a clear case of $INTC (-12,36 %) . Around 90% in 12 hours was ok. It will be similar on Wednesday at $ASML (-0,78 %) and on 04.02. at $NOVO B (-0,19 %) . However, go short on both beforehand, as the figures do not come after the close of trading. With $ASML (-0,78 %) I am already in.

I have disposed of some shares in my portfolio and some new ones have made it into the portfolio

Sold:

$ASML (-0,78 %) (+77.44 %) went well for me, I will possibly get back in if there is a strong setback

$PUM (-14,16 %) (+5.76) I don't see much potential at the moment

$NOVO B (-0,19 %) (2.53 %) I am waiting for a setback and will get back in lower

new additions to the portfolio today:

$ONDS (-4,64 %)

$NOW (+3,06 %)

$GIS (-0,85 %)

added to the portfolio last week:

$ASPI (+2,54 %)

$9880 (+0,16 %)

A short on $ASML (-0,78 %)

After more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU and the South American economic alliance Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) have concluded a historic free trade agreement. This creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world - with over 700 million people and a combined economic area worth around 22 trillion USD.

This agreement could trigger global economic and stock market effects - for companies, industries and investors.

_________________________

🛃🚢 What will happen to the Mercosur agreement?

• Tariffs on up to 91% of EU exports and 92% of Mercosur exports are to be gradually eliminated.
• The aim is to create a larger single market, better market access, simplified rules and more stable trading conditions between Europe and South America.
• Until now, high tariffs have applied to cars (approx. 35%), machinery (14-20%) and chemical products (up to 18%).

_________________________

📊 Possible effects on the stock market

📈 1. industries with strong exports benefit from higher demand

Europe can sell its products more easily in South America:

• 👩‍🏭 Cars & car parts
• 🏭 Mechanical engineering
• 🧪 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
• 🪄 Electronics & high-tech

The elimination of customs duties and fewer trade barriers will increase the margins and competitiveness of these industries.

Possible examples of Frofiteurs:

• VW $VOW (+1,49 %) BMW $BMW (-0,56 %) Daimler $DTG (-0,96 %)
• Siemens $SIE (-1,22 %)
• BASF $BAS (+1,41 %) Covestro $1COV (-0,08 %)
• SAP $SAP (+1,48 %) , ASML $ASML (-0,78 %)

➡️ Expected share price impetus from higher export revenues and capped production costs.

_________________________

🍖 2. agricultural & food sector in focus

The agricultural business is also becoming more closely networked on both sides:

• Tariffs on wine, oil, cheese, dairy products and luxury foods are being reduced or gradually created.
• EU producers will gain greater market access in South America; conversely, South American agricultural exports (e.g. beef, sugar) will have better access to the EU.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Nestlé $NESN (-0,89 %) Danone $BN (-3,23 %)
• Heineken $HEIA (-0,06 %) AB InBev $ABI (-0,24 %)
• FrieslandCampina $FCEPL

⚠️ However, critics point out that price pressure on local farmers* also arises and environmental risks can increase, for example due to cheaper imports.

_________________________

🚗 3. raw materials & energy: medium to long-term effects

Mercosur countries export large quantities of raw materials:

• Soy, sugar, coffee, ethanol, grain
• Brazil is also a major supplier of crude oil and minerals

One of the aims of the agreement is more stable commodity trade with fewer tariffs, which can influence commodity prices and move the shares of commodity and energy companies.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Vale $VALE3 (+0,98 %) Petrobras $PETR3 (+1,8 %)
• Bunge $BG (+0,4 %) , ADM $ADM (-0,26 %)

_________________________

🏦 4. finance & services sector

The agreement also facilitates:

• Market access for financial services
• Opening of telecom and transportation markets
• Opening of public procurement to EU suppliers

➡️ This could strengthen banks, insurers and logistics companies that operate across borders.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Allianz $ALV (-1,11 %) Deutsche Bank $DBK (-0,74 %)
• DHL/Deutsche Post $DHL (-1,5 %) Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (-1,6 %)

_________________________

🔄 Short-term market risks

Not everything is automatically positive:

• 🇪🇺 Agricultural protests in Europe show resistance to cheap imports.
• Political uncertainties remain - many parliaments need to ratify.
• Sectors with low competitiveness could come under price pressure.

_________________________

📌 Conclusion

The Mercosur agreement could be an issue with far-reaching effects:

✅ Strong export industry gains new sales markets

✅ Agricultural and luxury food sector gains sales opportunities

✅ Financial and service sector benefits from market expansion

✅ Raw material exporting countries in South America could become more integrated

⚠️ At the same time, there are risks for local producers and price distortions that could have a regional impact on share prices

_________________________

Question for you: What is your opinion on the agreement? And in which sectors or listed companies do you see the biggest winners in the long term?

_________________________

Sources:

- 🌎🤝 Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen zwischen EU & Mercosur unterzeichnet – größte Freihandelszone weltweit

- 💶📈 Wirtschaftliche Chancen für EU-Exporteure und Importeure durch Zollerleichterungen

- ⚙️🚗 Branchenanalysen mit Zollabbau-Effekten für Maschinen, Autos, Chemie etc.

- 🌾🥩 Agrar- und Rohstoff-Impakte durch neue Marktchancen und Quotenregelungen

RBC Capital Markets rates nine semiconductor stocks as "Outperform", including Nvidia $NVDA (+1,14 %) Micron Technology $MU (+0,4 %) , Marvell Technology $MRVL (-4,02 %) Arm Holdings $ARM (-3,54 %) , Astera Labs $ALAB (-4,98 %) , ASML Holding $ASML (-0,78 %) , Applied Materials $AMAT (+0,18 %) , Lam Research $LRCX (-1,89 %) and Lattice Semiconductor $LSCC (-1,89 %) .

The bank justifies this with different exposure to AI infrastructure, memory markets and advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

$ASML (-0,78 %)

- TSMC plans higher investments, production of advanced logic chips to increase

- Demand for ASML equipment expected to strengthen

- Analysts reiterate buy recommendation for ASML shares

Bernstein reaffirms rating for ASML after TSMC forecast

According to "Investing.com", Bernstein analyst David Dai has responded to this forecast by confirming the "Outperform" rating for the Dutch chip machine manufacturer. ASML chip machine manufacturer. His price target for the ASML share is 1,300 euros, signaling a strong upside potential for the stock.

In addition to Bernstein, other experts were also optimistic about ASML following the TSMC announcements and raised some of their price targets.

For example Wells Fargoanalyst Joseph Quatrochi recommended the NASDAQ-listed ASML-According to "TipRanks", analyst Joseph Quatrochi continued to recommend the NASDAQ-listed share as a buy in an analysis on Thursday and raised his price target from USD 1,140 to USD 1,450.

The experts at KGI Securities also reiterated their "buy" rating on Thursday with a target price of USD 1,415.

According to "Investing.com", analyst Dai also emphasized that the concentration of TSMC's capacity expansions on the most modern production nodes N3 and N2 would particularly benefit ASML, as these processes have a higher dependency on lithography systems compared to the rest of the industry.

In addition, ASML's revenue from TSMC business could grow significantly faster than previously expected by the market as a result of this development.