August wasn't so great for me either. But September is looking better so far...:) #rewind

The top 5 performers

$UNH (-0,72 %) +20

$NOVO B (+6,72 %) +16

$ENPH (-2,18 %) +12

$LOW (+0,5 %) +10

$8031 (+1,33 %) +10

$CALM (+0,58 %) -Investment pays off:

Q4 sales at USD 1.1 billion (previous year USD 640.8 million) +70% 🟢

Profit 342.5 million or 7.04 per share (previous year 113.2 million or 2.32). +200% 🟢

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cal-maine-foods-reports-financial-200500405.html

I also swapped a few smaller tranches of US shares for Japanese shares, which should also be worthwhile due to the new agreements. 💹

$8001 (+1,35 %)
$8002 (+0,57 %)
$8053 (+1,06 %)
$8031 (+1,33 %)

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/donald-trump-verkuendet-handelsabkommen-mit-japan-a-60ac8d8d-41e3-42ba-91ad-d9ea9a80a4de

Rio Tinto $RIO (-1,24 %) announced that Mitsui & Co. $8031 (+1,33 %) has agreed to acquire a 40% interest (approximately USD 5.3 billion) in the Rhodes Ridge Joint Venture from Rio Tinto's partners.

Mitsui & Co. has agreed to acquire VOC Group Limited's entire 25% interest in the joint venture.

Separately, Mitsui & Co. has signed a letter of intent to acquire a further 15% interest in the RRJV from AMB Holdings Pty Ltd.

Mitsui & Co. and Rio Tinto have long been partners in the Robe River Joint Venture.

Rio Tinto's 50% interest in the Rhodes Ridge Joint Venture and the terms of the joint venture agreements remain unchanged.

Under the terms of the agreement, AMB Holdings Pty Ltd will retain a 10% interest in the Rhodes Ridge Joint Venture.

A pre-feasibility study aimed at advancing the Rhodes Ridge development is expected to be completed later this year, followed by a feasibility study. The project will utilize Rio Tinto's rail, port and power infrastructure.

The shipping industry is a dynamic market characterized by geopolitical tensions, global trade flows and technological innovation. My current portfolio focuses on the tanker sector, which is currently benefiting from high freight rates and attractive dividends. But the future belongs to the dry bulk sector, which is driven by long-term trends such as urbanization and infrastructure projects. This strategy shows how I am gradually rebuilding my portfolio - with a clear focus on when tankers will remain attractive and when the bulk sector will gain in importance.

Exemplary tanker portfolio

The portfolio consists of 9 diversified tanker stocks that deliver high returns:

- Scorpio Tankers ($STNG (-1,27 %)): 20 %

- TORM ($TRMD A (+0,71 %)): 20 %

- Teekay Tankers ($TNK (-0,85 %)): 15 %

- International Seaways ($INSW (-1,3 %)): 15 %

- DHT Holdings ($DHT (-1,18 %)): 10 %

- Frontline ($FRO (-0,17 %)): 10 %

- Euronav ($EURN (+1,31 %)): 10 %

- Hafnia ($HAFNI (-1,15 %)): 5 %

- Okeanis Eco Tankers ($OET (-1,07 %)): 5 %

Why tankers are currently attractive:

- High freight rates: Geopolitical tensions such as sanctions against Russia are driving demand for oil transportation.

- Long routes: Detour via the Cape of Good Hope increase ton-mile demand.

- Attractive dividend yields: Many of these companies pay double-digit dividends.

Time horizon for tanker investments:

According to forecasts, the tanker market will remain stable until the end of 2025 as demand for crude oil transportation grows slightly (+2.5-3.5 %) and fleet capacity increases moderately (+1.2 %) [1][2]. From 2026, however, freight rates could be expected to fall if ships start using shorter routes again and demand for oil decreases due to the energy transition [3][5].

Why the bulk sector will become attractive in the long term:

The dry bulk sector offers sustainable growth through:

- urbanization and infrastructure projects in emerging markets such as China and India.

- Diversity of transported goodsincluding iron ore, coal, grain and bauxite.

- Technological innovationssuch as low-emission ships and digital optimization.

Time horizon for the bulk sector:

The bulk market will go through a slight phase of weakness until the end of 2025 (-1 to -2 % growth in demand) before picking up again from 2026 (+2-3 %) [3][7]. In the long term, annual growth of around 4-6% is forecast, driven by rising demand for raw materials and fleet modernization [4][19].

My strategy: conversion with dividends

Phase 1 (2025-2026): Focus on tanker dividends

The high dividends from my tanker portfolio will be used to gradually build up positions in the bulk sector. Meanwhile, I hold my tanker stocks as they will remain stable until at least the end of 2025.

Phase 2 (from 2026): Expansion of the bulk portfolio

With the expected decline in the attractiveness of the tanker market from 2026, I am planning a gradual shift into the following bulk stocks:

- Star Bulk Carriers ($SBLK (+0 %)): Market leader with a high dividend yield (~13%) and a diversified fleet.

- Genco Shipping ($GNK (+1,48 %)): Solid US company with a focus on low debt and sustainable distributions (~11%).

- Golden Ocean Group ($GOGL): Specializes in capesize ships with attractive yields (~15%).

- Pacific Basin Shipping ($2343) (-1,45 %)Leading in the Handysize segment with stable yields (~6 %).

- Safe Bulkers ($SB (+0,52 %)): Focus on energy-efficient ships and grain transportation (~5-6%).

I also add strategic stocks to my portfolio:

- Fortescue Metals Group ($FMG (-0,28 %)): Iron ore producer with a high dividend yield (~10%) and a strong focus on green technologies.

- Mitsui & Co Ltd. ($8031 (+1,33 %)): Diversified company with interests in the bulk sector and investments in sustainable ship technologies.

Phase 3 (from 2030): Long-term consolidation

By the end of the decade, my portfolio should be fully focused on the growing bulk sector. I will focus on companies that benefit from technological innovations and sustainable practices.

Why this strategy works

1. income generation:

- The high dividends from my tanker stocks finance the build-up of a growth-oriented bulk portfolio.

2. long-term growth potential:

- The bulk sector benefits from global megatrends such as urbanization and infrastructure development.

3. diversification:

- The combination of different shipping segments reduces the risk of market fluctuations.

4. sustainability:

- Investments in companies with a focus on green technologies ensure long-term competitiveness.

Conclusion

With this strategy, I am making the most of the short-term earning power of my tanker portfolio, while at the same time building a future-proof portfolio in the dry bulk sector. The planned time horizon allows me to react flexibly to market developments and maximize both short-term profits and long-term growth.

Through targeted shifts into stocks such as Star Bulk Carriers or Fortescue Metals Group, I am creating a solid basis for sustainable success - in an industry full of opportunities!

Disclaimer: This article was created with the support of an AI. However, the specific questions, content and strategic direction were provided by me.

@Jo_Wolf
@AlterMann

Sources

[1] BIMCO: Crude Tanker Shipping Market To Tighten Slightly in 2025 ... https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/bimco-crude-tanker-shipping-market-to-tighten-slightly-in-2025-products-to-soften/

[2] BIMCO Q3 2024: Tanker shipping market outlook - Safety4Sea https://safety4sea.com/bimco-q3-2024-tanker-shipping-market-outlook/

[3] BIMCO releases dry bulk shipping market overview & outlook https://safety4sea.com/bimco-releases-dry-bulk-shipping-market-overview-outlook/)

[4] Dry Bulk Shipping Market Shaping from Growth to Value https://www.einpresswire.com/article/775452936/dry-bulk-shipping-market-shaping-from-growth-to-value-usd-5-3-billion-by-2030

[5] Tanker market growth in 2025, but product tankers will struggle in ... https://shippingtelegraph.com/markets/tanker-market-growth-in-2025-but-product-tankers-will-struggle-in-2026/

[6] Tanker Fleet Q3'24 Recap and Outlook - AXSMarine https://public.axsmarine.com/blog/tanker-fleet-q3-24-recap-and-outlook

[7] BIMCO: Strong Bulk Market May Cool As 2025 Nears - Marine Link https://www.marinelink.com/news/bimco-strong-bulk-market-may-cool-nears-515632

[8] Crude and Product Tanker Markets: 2025 Outlook Brings Diverging ... https://mfame.guru/crude-and-product-tanker-markets-2025-outlook-brings-diverging-fortunes/

[9] Chemical Tanker Shipping Market Size and Forecast 2024 to 2034 https://www.precedenceresearch.com/chemical-tanker-shipping-market

[10] Tanker Market Supply Scenarios for 2025 and 2026 - AXSMarine https://public.axsmarine.com/blog/tanker-market-supply-scenarios-for-2025-2026-risks-of-oversupply-amid-shadow-fleet-uncertainty

[11] Shipping Market Outlook: Q4 2024 Forecast - VesselsValue Blog https://blog.vesselsvalue.com/shipping-market-outlook-q4-2024-forecast/

[12] Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook August 2024 - Bimco https://www.bimco.org/news/market_analysis/2024/20240829-smoo-tanker

[13] Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook November 2024 - Bimco https://www.bimco.org/news/market_analysis/2024/20241128-smoo-tanker

[14] Shipbrokers and analysts' views on the tanker market in 2025 https://www.rivieramm.com/news-content-hub/news-content-hub/shipbrokers-and-analysts-thoughts-on-the-tanker-market-in-2025-83437

[15] Tanker shipping market outlook for H2 2024 - Seatrade Maritime News https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/tankers/tanker-shipping-market-outlook-for-h2-2024

[16] Sea freight situation and outlook for 2025 - Metro Shipping

https://metro.global/news/sea-freight-situation-and-outlook-for-2025/

[17] Global Shipping Outlook Is Stable in 2025 - Fitch Ratings https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/global-shipping-outlook-is-stable-in-2025-12-12-2024

[18] Dry Bulk Shipping Market by Type, Vessel Type, End-Use https://www.giiresearch.com/report/ires1614056-dry-bulk-shipping-market-by-type-major-dry-bulk.html

[19] Coal, bauxite drive dry bulk outlook - Riviera Maritime Media https://www.rivieramm.com/news-content-hub/news-content-hub/coal-and-bauxite-drive-dry-bulk-outlook-83038

[20] Cargo Shipping Market Size & Share Analysis - Mordor Intelligence https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/cargo-shipping-market

[21] Market Outlook: Strengthening in Dry Bulk, Weakened Demand ... https://mfame.guru/market-outlook-strengthening-in-dry-bulk-weakened-demand-forecast-for-2025/

[22] Dry Bulk Shipping Market Overview & Outlook October 2024 - Bimco https://www.bimco.org/news/market_analysis/2024/20241031-smoo-bulk

[23] Performance of Global Shipping Segments to Diverge in 2025 https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/performance-of-global-shipping-segments-to-diverge-in-2025-20-12-2024

[24] Dry Bulk Shipping Market Size, Share & Forecast to 2030 https://www.researchandmarkets.com/report/dry-bulk-shipping

[25] Dry bulk shipping market outlook for 2025 - Seatrade Maritime News https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/dry-bulk/dry-bulk-shipping-market-outlook-for-2025

[26] The Outlook for the Dry Bulk Market 2023 - 2030 - Shipnet blog https://blog.shipnet.no/blog/articles/the-outlook-for-the-dry-bulk-market-2023-2030

[27] Dry Bulk Shipping Market Size & Share 2025-2030 - 360iResearch

https://www.360iresearch.com/library/intelligence/dry-bulk-shipping

[28] Dry Bulk Shipping Market Trends in 2025 : Expected to Grow at a ... https://www.einpresswire.com/article/775783846/dry-bulk-shipping-market-trends-in-2025-expected-to-grow-at-a-cagr-of-2-06-by-2032.

[29] Dry Bulk Shipping Market Forecasts to 2030 - GII Research https://www.giiresearch.com/report/smrc1462597-dry-bulk-shipping-market-forecasts-global-analysis.html

[30] Bulk Carriers Fleet Growth: A Decade in Review and 2025 Outlook https://public.axsmarine.com/blog/bulk-carriers-fleet-growth-a-decade-in-review-and-2025-outlook

Preface:

In the following, I would like to present how my portfolio has developed over the course of 2024.

This includes

1) my strategic orientation

2)Return on the portfolio.

The main topics are:

• Moving away from individual stocks
• Entry into gold and bitcoin
• Factor investing

Finally, I will give my own thoughts on how to proceed.

The main changes to my portfolio that have led

to my current strategy are presented below using a short timeline.

timeline:

My timeline

Beginning of 2024

At the beginning of the year, I pursued a 70/30 core satellite

strategy. The 70% ETF core again consisted of STOXX Europe.

MSCI World, Emerging Markets.

The 30% consisted of stocks such as: $CSIQ (-2,34 %) , $O (-0,76 %) ,$TSM (+2,36 %)
$ADM (-0,21 %)
$UMI (+0,96 %)
$D05 (-1,07 %)
$BMW (+0,44 %)
$UKW (+0,82 %)
$8031 (+1,33 %)
$MUV2 (+0,67 %)

February

Addition of gold to my portfolio. Target size 10%. Build-up in batches.

The remaining 70/30 strategy therefore only relates to the remaining

90%.

April-June:

Entry into Bitcoin via Trade Republic in several batches

at prices between 50k and 63k.

After exchange with @Epi to the fee schedule at Trade Republic

I sold them there in order to sell Bitcoin on a dedicated crypto exchange.

exchange.

June:

Thanks to @PowerWordChill I got to grips with factor investing. A Gerd Kommer book later, and after some internet research, I decided to

decided to transform my ETF strategy into a factor ETF strategy.

July-August 2024:

Sale of my shares. Concentration on the factor portfolio.

August - September 24:

Renewed build-up of Bitcoin with the aim of making Bitcoin a

a fixed component of the portfolio. Consideration is 5%-10%

of my portfolio.

The idea. Build up an initial position, then make regular

investments of €50 per week with the aim of growing to the target size

to grow to the target size. The rapid rise in October/November led me to

led me to leave it at €50 per week. And individual purchases in

larger tranches at an early stage with a portfolio size of 2.x%.

End of December 2024:

Position size of Bitcoin almost 5%.

I am not yet including Bitcoin in my gold/ETF quota. I'm still running it on the side.

I re-evaluated my factor weighting at the end of the year

and would like to fine-tune it a little. I will briefly present the result in the

following section.

In addition, I have decided to include a small

include a small proportion of real estate stocks. However, this will probably never

part of my strategy worth mentioning and contains - as of today - only

about 3% of my portfolio and only $O (-0,76 %) ).

Overall breakdown of my portfolio:

As described above, I do not yet include Bitcoin in my overall strategy

part of my overall strategy so that rebalancing remains easier. This will

change when Bitcoin reaches its target size.

The rest is made up as follows:

ETFs:

$XDEM (+0,79 %) 30.3% (MSCI World Momentum)

$XDEB (-0,09 %) 10.1% (MSCI World Minimum Volatility)

$XDEV (+0,85 %) 10.1% (MSCI World Value)

$ZPRV (+1,42 %) 15% (MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted)

$ZPRX (+0,49 %) 6.5% (MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted)

$PEH (-0,45 %) 4.5% (as a quality factor on emerging markets)

$5MVL (+0,11 %) 4.5% (Edge MSCI EM Value)

$SPYX (+0,66 %) 9% (MSCI EM Small Cap)

Gold

$EWG2 (+0,2 %) 10% Gold ETC

Getquin Rewind and own data:

At the end of the post you will find my Getquin Rewind, as I was not able to embed the image in the text:

However, according to my own calculations, this cannot be correct.

My portfolio volume at the start of the year was around €103,500 with a return of €16,693. This would correspond to a total return of 19.2%. However, we are not yet talking about a time-weighted return, as my invested capital has roughly doubled over the course of the year. I therefore estimate my TTWROR to be higher.

My own thoughts and outlook:

I do not expect any major changes in strategy over the next few years. At some point, a strategy will have to be established. If necessary, I will make some adjustments to this strategy.

This includes the fact that I am dissatisfied with the costs of the emerging markets factor ETFs. So far, however, I intend to live with it. Should I

stumble across better products, I will consider switching. Especially as long as I stay within the tax allowance when switching.

I'll also have to decide how big my Bitcoin holding should ultimately be.

If you've been reading carefully, you'll notice that a lot of money has accumulated in the last year. Big profits, big investments. Due to personal circumstances, I will not maintain these rates in the same style, but will reduce them somewhat. I expect to be able to continue investing around 1.5-2k per month. This means that my financial goals are

with an expected return of 5% adjusted for inflation over many years.

I am half hoping for major setbacks in the near future and the associated favorable entries. However, in view of the impact that minor price jolts have had on society as a whole (thanks to populism), I don't really wish for them.

Do you have any suggestions, questions or comments? Is there anything that particularly interests you?

I am also happy to receive suggestions for improvement for future posts.

Best regards,

Your Smurf

PS: @DonkeyInvestor and me, that's love ❤. And now send me your coins! (So I can reward your next post appropriately).

PPS: I hope someone is interested.

Hey guys,

What's at the top of your watchlist at the moment? 😎 I'll make a start: $VRTX (-0,21 %)
$BLK (+1,02 %)
$SYK (-0,3 %)
$SNPS (+11,16 %)
$8031 (+1,33 %)
$STLAM (+2,73 %)

Have a great Sunday!

Just had to strike

https://www.mitsui.com/jp/en/release/2024/1249099_14372.html

$8031 (+1,33 %) shatters all chart views today with tomorrow's (?) stock split. Good wake-up call as the chart greeted us vertically red this morning 😂

My beloved Mitsui $8031 (+1,33 %)

Dividends are simply something tolles🙂‍↕️🙂‍↕️

Why is L&S so uncertain about the price $8031 (+1,33 %) and fluctuates between €34 and the current price. I was looking forward to buying at a good price, but it was just a late April Fool's joke.