The tanker market remains highly dynamic as geopolitical tensions, tightening sanctions, and shifting trade flows reshape vessel demand. VLCC rates have softened, dropping 20% on key Middle East routes, while Suezmax and Aframax segments are holding firm amid tightening tonnage. Meanwhile, new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude trade are forcing Indian refiners to restructure supply chains, and geopolitical tensions in the Baltic are escalating over potential vessel seizures.

With a mix of short-term bearish rate movements and bullish long-term projections, market players are closely watching fleet supply constraints, trade policy shifts, and evolving crude flows to anticipate the next move.

💡 VLCC Rates Under Pressure Despite Tightening Fleet

The VLCC market has come under significant pressure, with rates on MEG/Vietnam slipping to WS 55* and MEG/Korea at WS 54.25*—a sharp 20% drop. The February MEG program remains behind schedule, and with an increasing tonnage list in the Atlantic, charterers remain in control.

Despite the short-term weakness, investment bank Jefferies remains bullish, increasing VLCC price targets and forecasting:

📈 $55,000/day in 2025 (previously $50,000)

📈 $65,000/day in 2026 (previously $57,500)

A key driver of this long-term optimism is the growing impact of U.S. sanctions. The sanctioned VLCC fleet now represents 10% of total tonnage, with potential to reach 15% if further restrictions are imposed. With VLCC utilization rising from 83% to 88%, Jefferies suggests this could climb to 94%, tightening supply and supporting rates.

However, uncertainty looms as the U.S. crude inventory build continues, and a Trump-Putin dialogue on Ukraine has raised ceasefire speculation, leading to a 2.7% drop in WTI crude.

1 Year T/C - VLCC ECO / SCRUBBER

Rates - Dirty - Spot WS* February 12th 2025

🚢 Suezmax & Aframax Segments Hold Firm Amid Market Tightness

While VLCCs struggle, the Suezmax market is proving resilient, particularly in the Atlantic. West Africa activity appears muted on the surface, but tonnage remains tight as off-market fixtures keep vessels occupied. Rates in the U.S. Gulf climbed by 6.25 points, supported by a lack of ballasters from the UKC/Mediterranean due to poor weather conditions.

The Aframax segment also remains strong, although rates have likely peaked after a sharp surge. The recent hike pushed Aframax levels to parity with Suezmax, making it attractive for owners to lock in profits. With some vessels repositioning to the Mediterranean, the potential for replacement rate hikes remains if demand spikes.

1 Year T/C - SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER

🌍 Geopolitical Tensions: Baltic Confrontation & Indian Refiners' Supply Shift

The Baltic region is heating up, as Russian lawmaker Alexei Zhuravlev warned of retaliatory measures in response to reports that Nordic and Baltic nations plan to seize shadow fleet tankers carrying Russian oil. This raises the risk of direct confrontation, with Europe looking to justify tanker seizures under piracy laws and environmental regulations.

Meanwhile, India’s refiners are scrambling to adjust to fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. With 160 tankers blacklisted, Indian refiners like IOC, Bharat Petroleum, and Reliance are facing the loss of 18-20 cargoes in March—a 14% drop in monthly Russian crude imports.

To adapt, new Dubai-based trading entities are emerging, replacing sanctioned firms. Refiners are also utilizing onshore storage in Fujairah to disguise Russian crude origins, maintaining supply flow despite the latest restrictions.

🚢 The Effect of U.S. Trade Policies & Market Reactions

Beyond sanctions, U.S. trade policy shifts are creating new challenges. Potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada could significantly impact U.S. crude supply chains, leading to:

📊 Higher costs for U.S. refiners

📊 Increased redirection of Mexican fuel oil to Asia & the Caribbean

📊 Ripple effects on Canadian and Mexican export strategies

Meanwhile, Chinese refiners are actively diversifying crude sources, concentrating purchasing power among major players. This shift further consolidates market power in the hands of larger refiners, while smaller players struggle to adapt.

Greek tanker operators remain at the center of these evolving crude flows. Despite rising scrutiny, Greek-owned tankers continue to dominate Russian fuel oil transport, taking advantage of shifting trade patterns as traditional routes become increasingly complex.

🚨 Looking Ahead: Volatility, Risks & Opportunities

The tanker market is at a crossroads, with a mix of bearish short-term pressures and bullish long-term fundamentals:

🔸 VLCC rates under pressure, but Jefferies sees upside in 2025/26

🔸 Suezmax and Aframax markets remain firm, benefiting from market tightness

🔸 Baltic tensions could escalate, impacting shadow fleet dynamics

🔸 India’s crude trade is shifting, as refiners bypass U.S. sanctions

🔸 Oil prices react to geopolitical shifts, with Trump-Putin talks impacting WTI

🔸 U.S. trade policies could reshape crude flows, particularly with Mexico & Canada

As we move through 2025, sanctions, geopolitical risks, and shifting trade routes will continue to create volatility—but also opportunity. Navigating these changes effectively will be key to capitalizing on emerging market dynamics.

💬Let's connect!

What are your thoughts on the latest tanker market developments? Feel free to share in the comments and don't forget to like and share this post 🚢

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$TNK (+0 %)

$ASC (-0,62 %)

$INSW (-1,32 %)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

As February unfolds, the tanker market is heating up, driven by tightening supply, geopolitical shifts, and a surprising resurgence in VLCC rates. The US crackdown on Iran and the shadow fleet, combined with growing crude exports from the US, Guyana, and Brazil, is stretching mainstream vessel availability. Meanwhile, tanker stocks are rallying as investors anticipate a prolonged upcycle.

📈 VLCCs: Rates Surge as Supply Tightens

VLCC rates saw a surprising rebound this week despite the Lunar New Year lull. Allied reports that time-charter equivalent (TCE) earnings have jumped above last year’s levels, signaling strong demand.

The Middle East Gulf/China route has firmed to the low WS 70s* ( See explanation at end of the post ) , with sentiment pointing to further upside. Owners are in no rush to fix, as the supply of available vessels remains under pressure. Hunter Group estimates that an additional 156 VLCCs could be needed by 2026 to accommodate rising demand, yet only 28 are scheduled for delivery over the next two years.

With more cargoes set to emerge and February being a short month, some profit-taking is expected, but the fundamental tightness in the market remains

1 Year T/C - VLCC ECO / SCRUBBER

🚢 Suezmax & Aframax: Market Holding Firm

The Suezmax market is holding steady, with TD6 (Black Sea/Med) trading at a minimum of WS 92.5*, while TD20 (West Africa/UKC) is fluctuating between WS 90-92.5*. In the East, a recent fixture at WS 105* for a MEG/East run was below expectations, but owners remain optimistic given the tight vessel supply.

For Aframaxes, the North Sea market is stable, with oil company tonnage covering most stems. However, Mediterranean activity is picking up, and with tonnage thinning, rates could soon face upward pressure. The balance between Suezmax and VLCC demand in the region will dictate the next move.

1 Year T/C - SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER

🛢 Trump’s Maximum Pressure: The Shadow Fleet Dilemma

US President Donald Trump’s renewed maximum pressure campaign on Iran has sent ripples through the tanker market. If fully enforced, Iranian oil exports (1.7M bpd) could be replaced by mainstream Middle East Gulf barrels, requiring an additional 51 VLCCs.

Moreover, stricter sanctions enforcement is already impacting the shadow fleet. Hunter Group reports that many older, sanctioned vessels are now accepting steep discounts on scrap values, signaling potential exits from the market. However, dark fleet scrapping remains challenging, with some owners struggling to find yards willing to take sanctioned tonnage.

Visual by Grok

📊 Tanker Stocks Rally Amid Supply Constraints

Investor sentiment is turning bullish, with tanker stocks in New York and Oslo surging after Trump’s announcement. Frontline ($FRO (-1,8 %) ) jumped 7.5% in New York, while DHT Holdings ($DHT (-0,38 %) ) rose 3.5%. Analysts believe China will likely cooperate with the US by shifting crude purchases away from Iran, adding demand for an estimated 20-50 VLCCs.

Meanwhile, DHT Holdings posted a strong 2024, with net profits at $181.5M, up from $161.4M in 2023. The company has booked 74% of available VLCC spot days for Q1 2025 at $36,400/day, reflecting confidence in continued rate strength.

🌍 Geopolitics & Trade Flows: What’s Next?

China’s Tariffs on US Oil & LNG: ANZ reports that China’s tariffs on US energy imports are unlikely to have a major impact on oil prices in the short term.

US-Canada-Mexico Tariffs on Hold: The Trump administration has paused 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for at least 30 days, reducing uncertainty in North American energy flows.

📈 Looking Ahead: Bullish Sentiment Grows

With VLCC supply historically tight, the orderbook at record lows, and sanctions reshaping trade flows, tanker fundamentals remain firmly in owners’ favor. As geopolitical tensions escalate and crude exports rise, the market is primed for further upside.

💬 Let’s Connect!

Will VLCC rates push past WS 80*? Will shadow fleet scrapping accelerate? Feel free to share in the comments and don't forget to like and share this post 🚢

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*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

As January draws to a close, the tanker market remains in flux, shaped by a combination of sanctions, shifting trade flows, and volatile freight rates. The surge in VLCC rates seen earlier this month, driven by new US sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet, has now cooled as vessel availability has increased, the Chinese New Year slowdown has taken effect, and market uncertainty persists. However, the long-term fundamentals continue to suggest that renewed volatility is likely in the months ahead.

📉 VLCC Market Cools, But Volatility Looms

After spiking to seven-month highs following the implementation of new shipping sanctions, VLCC rates have since softened, reflecting a temporary lull in demand. The Chinese New Year holidays have slowed trading activity, particularly in the Middle East Gulf, where fewer cargo inquiries have put downward pressure on freight rates. Despite this short-term dip, the Atlantic VLCC market has remained active, with eastern buyers aggressively sourcing alternative crude supplies at discounted prices. The WTI/Dubai spread currently favors US crude, and with the March US Gulf export program expected to be substantial, rates could soon rebound. The thinning position list suggests that downside risk is limited, and market sentiment points to an eventual upward shift in rates once trading resumes in earnest.

1 Year T/C - VLCC ECO / SCRUBBER

🚢 Suezmax & Aframax: Market Divergence

While VLCC dynamics have fluctuated, the Suezmax and Aframax segments have followed distinct trends. The Suezmax market continues to face oversupply, with an abundance of available vessels keeping freight rates subdued. The only exception has been the Black Sea, where increased forward fixture activity has allowed rates to hold steady. Meanwhile, the West African market has seen rates decline to WS 75 on the TD20 route due to muted demand, while the US Gulf has remained quiet with rates stuck around WS 65 for transatlantic voyages. In the Middle East Gulf, spot activity has been limited, keeping rates for eastbound cargoes just above WS 105.

Aframax markets, on the other hand, have seen significant disruptions following the latest US sanctions on Russian oil shipments. The cost of transporting ESPO crude out of Russia’s Pacific port of Kozmino has skyrocketed, with Aframax freight rates tripling to over $6.5 million. This spike has widened the price gap between buyers and sellers, stalling Asian trading for March-loading cargoes. In the North Sea, Aframax availability has tightened as vessels reposition to the Atlantic in response to growing demand for transatlantic voyages. Meanwhile, the Mediterranean market, which initially weakened following concerns over potential closures at Libya’s Es Sider and Ras Lanuf terminals, has since stabilized as operations at both ports resumed.

1 Year T/C - SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER

🛢 Sanctions & Supply Chain Disruptions

Beyond freight rate movements, Russian crude exports continue to face mounting challenges. At Ust-Luga, one of Russia’s key Baltic export terminals, tanker loadings have fallen to a four-year low of 350,000 barrels per day due to a combination of technical issues and the impact of US sanctions. Traders report that the port’s reduced throughput has added to Russia’s export difficulties, particularly as newly sanctioned vessels struggle to find buyers.

Meanwhile, Indian and Chinese refiners have encountered growing logistical hurdles as sanctioned tankers begin arriving at ports, leading to unexpected delays in cargo discharges. Indian refiners, in particular, have started to pivot toward alternative sources, increasing purchases from the Middle East, Africa, and the US to compensate for declining Russian volumes.

" Russian Shadow Fleet " by Grok

🌍 OPEC+, Oil Prices & Trump’s Energy Moves

Oil prices, which had recently surged to multi-month highs, have retreated following renewed political uncertainty surrounding US energy policy. Former President Donald Trump’s return to the global stage has introduced conflicting signals regarding future oil supply. On one hand, he has expressed a desire to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) “right to the top,” a move that would require sourcing large volumes of imported sour crude. On the other, he has called for increased domestic oil production, a policy that could put downward pressure on global crude prices. Analysts believe that any effort to replenish the SPR would likely support demand for VLCC and Suezmax tankers, as the US would need to import significant crude volumes from the Middle East.

At the same time, the OPEC+ alliance is preparing to meet on February 3 to review its supply curbs. Market expectations, according to ANZ, suggest that the group will maintain its current production cuts through the first quarter before potentially unwinding them in April. However, with Chinese demand still failing to deliver a meaningful recovery, it remains unlikely that OPEC+ will agree to any production increases in the near term.

By Grok

📈 Looking Ahead: Market Poised for Further Shifts

As the Chinese New Year holiday period comes to an end, tanker demand is expected to rebound, particularly as US crude exports ramp up and trade routes continue to evolve. Geopolitical uncertainties, from US sanctions enforcement to OPEC+ production policies, will remain key variables shaping freight market dynamics. Furthermore, with the global tanker fleet experiencing historically low supply growth and a tightening orderbook, freight rate volatility is set to persist through 2025.

💬 Let’s Connect!

What are your thoughts on the tanker market ? Feel free to share in the comments and don't forget to like and share this post! 🚢

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$INSW (-1,32 %)

The tanker market continues its dynamic and volatile ride into 2025, with spot market rates soaring to new heights, particularly for VLCCs. Over the past month, the Middle East to China route saw VLCC rates jump by 39%, reaching $37,800/day. This surge comes on the heels of the latest US sanctions package, which has now impacted over 270 vessels, including a significant portion of the shadow fleet that was previously involved in Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude shipments.

As a result, the market is experiencing an intense scramble to secure non-sanctioned vessels, further pushing rates higher. The rise in demand is particularly visible with Chinese and Indian refiners, who are adjusting their supply chains to compensate for the reduced availability of tankers.

💡 Sanctions and Fleet Shortages Drive Up Rates

The tightening of available vessels due to sanctions has intensified competition across various tanker segments. The surge in the spot market rates for VLCCs has caused significant shifts in trade routes. Charterers are increasingly looking to secure tankers for longer-term deals to hedge against rising freight costs. However, the term market has been impacted by the rising rates, with some term deals failing as charterers became nervous about locking in deals at what they perceived as “toppy” rate levels.

For instance, the Agneta Pallas III, which was initially fixed at $50,000/day for a term of 8-10 months with Trafigura, was later re-fixed at a higher rate of $55,000/day with Gunvor, showcasing the ongoing volatility in the market. Other deals, such as those involving Mercuria and Trafigura, also fell through as charterers hesitated to commit to long-term rates that seemed too high given the rapid escalation in spot rates.

1 Year T/C - VLCC ECO / SCRUBBER

🚢 Impact on Suezmax & Aframax Markets

While the VLCC market is leading the charge, Suezmax and Aframax markets are also benefiting from the ripple effects. For example, the Aframax market saw freight rates for Russian ESPO rise to $3.5M, doubling in just a short period. The Aframax market is expected to continue tightening, particularly in light of the sanctions and the rerouting of Russian crude.

The Suezmax market, meanwhile, is seeing a surge in demand, especially on routes like West Africa to China, where rates have risen dramatically. This follows the same dynamics that reshaped the Suezmax market in 2019, as charterers look for alternatives to VLCCs as they face ongoing disruptions in larger vessel availability.

1 Year T/C - SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER

🌍 Geopolitical Shifts and the Red Sea

The tanker market’s outlook is also being shaped by geopolitical dynamics, such as the ceasefire in Gaza and the resulting routing of vessels through the Red Sea. This shift in routing, which follows the cessation of hostilities, could make Suezmax vessels more attractive, increasing tonne-miles and raising freight rates. However, questions remain as to whether owners and charterers are willing to take the risk in this area, given the volatile political environment in the region.

At the same time, the shadow fleet continues to play a significant role in the tanker market. As more vessels are pushed into this category due to sanctions, the fleet supply in the non-sanctioned market is tightening even further, driving up rates across the board.

🚢 The Effect of US Tariffs on Mexico and Canada

The potential imposition of tariffs by the US on Canada and Mexico is adding another layer of complexity to the market. Should tariffs be enforced, particularly on Mexican fuel oil exports, US refiners could face higher costs, which might force them to adjust their supply chains. As a result, Mexican fuel oil exports could be redirected to alternative markets, including Asia and the Caribbean, leading to further shifts in global tanker demand.

Additionally, Canada and Mexico could experience changes in their respective oil export strategies, with possible ripple effects across the Americas and beyond. These developments will continue to impact US imports, particularly as the US energy landscape adapts to these shifts in trade relations.

🌍 China’s Energy Strategy and the Role of Greek Tankers

China’s energy security strategy is another factor to watch. As Chinese refiners, particularly state-owned giants like Cnooc and Rongsheng, secure crude from diverse regions, this will likely further concentrate market share among these companies, leaving smaller refiners struggling to adapt to the new realities of the market. This shift will only intensify the demand for tankers, particularly from regions like Russia and Latin America, driving rate fluctuations in key trade routes.

Meanwhile, Greek tanker operators remain prominent players in the market. They continue to serve Russian residual fuel oil exports and may increase their involvement if freight rates continue to rise. These operators have been pivotal in shipping Russian oil through non-traditional routes, with some focusing on smaller vessel classes as sanctions continue to impact the larger tonnage.

🚨 Looking Ahead: Volatility and Opportunities

The tanker market’s outlook for 2025 is marked by a mix of uncertainty and opportunity. Sanctions, supply disruptions, and the tightening of fleet availability will continue to influence rates, with VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax markets all feeling the effects.

As we move through the year, geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and trade shifts will keep the market volatile, but also provide opportunities for those able to navigate the landscape effectively. With spot rates pushing towards $50,000/day and beyond, it’s clear that the tanker market remains a high-stakes environment that will require close monitoring throughout 2025.

💬 Let’s Connect!

What are your thoughts on the tanker market heading into 2025? Feel free to share in the comments and don't forget to like and share this post! 🚢

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The tanker market is experiencing a dynamic surge, with VLCC rates jumping by as much as 39% since Friday, pushing the TD3C route from the Middle East to China to $37,800/day. This sharp rise follows the latest U.S. sanctions package, which has targeted 35% of shadow fleet vessels involved in Russian, Venezuelan, and Iranian oil shipments. As these vessels are increasingly sidelined, there’s a scramble to secure the remaining non-sanctioned tankers, pushing rates even higher.

1 Year T/C Crude

As Chinese and Indian refiners struggle to adjust, looking for alternative supplies, we’re seeing major shifts in the trade flow.

Unipec, for example, has chartered eight VLCCs, shifting its focus to crudes from Norway, Africa, and Brazil. At the same time, Middle Eastern benchmarks like Oman crude have seen premiums surge to year-highs of $4/barrel, reflecting a tightening market.

Additionally, Aframax freight for Russian ESPO blend crude has doubled to $3.5M, and the Shandong Port situation, with tankers stranded, is adding further pressure.

1 Year T/C VLCC- ECO / SCRUBBER

💡 Sanctions, Tight Fleet Supply & Shadow Fleet Dynamics

The sanction enforcement is forcing vessels into the shadow fleet, drastically tightening supply in the non-sanctioned market. In the past week alone, Middle East to China route rates jumped 77%, and 115% month-on-month as charterers rushed to secure unsanctioned vessels. This disruption is causing ripple effects throughout the market.

DHT Holdings, a New York-listed VLCC specialist, is one of the direct beneficiaries of this surge. The company reported its 2024 time-charter equivalent (TCE) earnings at $45,200/day, with its spot vessels earning slightly higher at $47,200/day. This solid performance is a result of DHT’s eco-designed and scrubber-fitted fleet, positioning them to take full advantage of the tightening market.

So far in 2025, DHT has been booking its ships at $43,586/day, including the DHT Jaguar on a Middle East to Singapore route, further solidifying its advantage in this market.

🛢 Suezmax and Aframax Markets Gaining Ground

While the VLCC market leads the charge, other segments are seeing their share of the action.

The Suezmax market, especially, is benefiting from the ripple effects of the VLCC surge. In 2019, the Suezmax market was essentially reshaped by the VLCC rate spike, and we’re witnessing similar dynamics unfold today. As VLCC rates climb, charterers are increasingly turning to Suezmax vessels, particularly for routes like West Africa to China, where they’re seeing rates soar. Analysts anticipate this market will continue to tighten, especially if sanctions and regional restrictions push more cargo to Suezmaxes.

Meanwhile, the Aframax market has also tightened as Russian oil continues to be moved across non-traditional routes. The Aframax sector is seeing higher rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf and Russian crude markets, driven by sanctions and cargo rerouting.

For example, Aframax freight for Russian ESPO has surged to new heights, doubling to $3.5M. The Aframax market has seen limited activity due to inactivity early in 2025, but this is expected to turn around with growing demand.

1 Year T/C SUEZMAX - ECO / SCRUBBER

1 Year T/C AFRAMAX - ECO / SCRUBBER

💼 China’s Energy Security Push

In response to the tightening market, China’s mega refiners, such as Cnooc and Rongsheng, are securing crude from diverse regions to stabilize the domestic fuel supply.

These refiners are stepping in as smaller refiners struggle to adapt to the new reality of higher freight rates and restricted vessel availability. This shift is likely to further consolidate market share among China’s state-owned giants, with strategic investments helping secure energy security for the nation. As China continues to pivot toward alternative oil sources, the tanker market could experience further shifts, potentially leading to more spot market volatility.

🚨 What’s Next for the Tanker Market?

As we look to 2025, the outlook for the tanker market remains heated.

The combination of sanctions, tight fleet supply, and geopolitical uncertainty could further fuel rate surges. We’re already seeing how Atlantic crude flows are being impacted, with Middle Eastern exports facing increased demand.

Additionally, OPEC+ adjustments to supply could lead to more volatility, with rates possibly pushing towards $50,000/day in the near term.

The Suezmax and Aframax markets will continue to feel the effects of VLCC disruptions, with charterers shifting towards these vessels as the demand for oil shifts across regions. The rise of the shadow fleet and non-sanctioned vessels will continue to reshape tanker trade routes, bringing both opportunities and risks to owners and charterers alike.

As sanctions continue to shift the landscape, and fleet availability continues to tighten, we’re in for a volatile yet potentially profitable year in the tanker market.

💬 Let’s Connect!

Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to like and share this post! 🚢

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VLCC freight rates for the Middle East to China route have surged by 39% since Friday, climbing to $37,800/day on the TD3C route.

This reflects a market scrambling to adapt to U.S. sanctions targeting 35% of shadow fleet vessels involved in Russian, Venezuelan, and Iranian oil shipments. 🚢

Chinese and Indian refiners are urgently seeking alternative supplies, with Unipec chartering eight VLCCs and purchasing crudes from Norway, Africa, and Brazil.

Middle East benchmarks like Oman crude have surged to year-high premiums of $4/barrel. Aframax freight for Russian ESPO blend crude doubled to $3.5M, with additional tightness caused by stranded tankers outside Shandong Port.

💡 Sanctions, Tight Fleet Supply & Shadow Fleet Dynamics

Sanctioned vessels are being pulled into the shadow fleet, further tightening supply in the non-sanctioned market. The Middle East to China route saw rates climb 77% in a week and 115% month-on-month, as buyers rushed to secure unsanctioned vessels.

💼 China’s Energy Security Push

While small refiners struggle to adapt, mega refiners like Cnooc and Rongsheng are stepping in, securing crudes from diverse regions to stabilize domestic fuel supply. This shift may consolidate market share among state-owned giants, ensuring Beijing's energy security goals are met.

🚨 What’s Next?

With all indicators pointing to a heated market in 2025, factors like Atlantic crude flows and potential OPEC+ adjustments could further boost freight rates. As the VLCC market tightens, how will global trade respond?

💬 Let’s connect!

What’s your take on the evolving tanker market and the ripple effects of these sanctions? Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to like and share this post ! 🚢

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After years of under-performance, VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates could finally rebound in 2025, driven by a mix of geopolitical turmoil, sweeping sanctions, and tight fleet growth.

The Biden administration’s recent sanctions target over 100 Russian tankers and key energy players like Gazprom Neft. These measures aim to cut Russia’s oil revenue as its exports to major buyers like India and China face severe disruptions.

⚠️ At the same time, China’s Shandong Port has banned U.S.-sanctioned tankers, forcing VLCCs to divert to alternative routes like Singapore. Russian crude exports are also falling, partly due to infrastructure damage and under investment, tightening supply and boosting demand for unsanctioned shipping.

1 Year T/C Crude

However, Chinese demand remains a critical factor. Unipec, the world’s largest crude charterer, reported a 6-year low in volumes last year, with crude imports down 4%. If China’s demand doesn’t rebound, it could offset the positive impact of sanctions.

⛽ Supply vs. Demand: On the supply side, just five new VLCCs are set to join the fleet in 2025. Meanwhile, global oil prices recently spiked 3% to $80 a barrel as traders brace for potential disruptions. New production from the U.S., Brazil, and the Middle East could help stabilize the market.

🚨 What’s Next?

The interplay between sanctions, China’s demand, and tight fleet growth sets the stage for a complex and unpredictable 2025. Investors in shipping and energy need to monitor these dynamics closely.

💬 Let's connect !

What’s your outlook on the coming year for tankers and the broader impact of sanctions?

Share your insights in the comments, and don’t forget to like and share this post 📰 !

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