1D·

My Q1 & Q2 predictions

In this series of posts, I plan to share my predictions for the upcoming Q1 and Q2 of this year. I will focus mostly on predictions instead of explaining why I think in a certain way.

I will try to focus on stocks and ETFs I already track performance and the ones I have in my portfolio.

- In general US stocks will not perform spectacularly like last year. I predict the $SPY5 (-0,04%) won't reach more than a 10% return.

- $ASML (+0,9%) will drop once again to the 650-670 eur range, creating a good opportunity to buy

- $MAIN (-0,27%) will continue to grow both price and dividends I expect small single-digits

- $LMT (+1,28%) is the one stock that can surprise with two-digit growth or low single-digit

Let me know what you think in the comments.

As usual, I'm not a financial advisor and this is not any recommendation, just sharing my thoughts.

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3 Comentários

Moritz@leveragegrinding

1D

Well that is absolutely not helpful if you "concentrate on the predictions instead of explaining"

That's just random numbers from a random user

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Mikolaj

@Volcano

6D·

YoY overview

2024:

This was my first year of investing in which I planned mostly to learn and think about what type of investor I would like to be. During my journey, quite quickly, I realized I would like to be a dividend growth investor - not saying it is best for all, but simply, what was most appealing to me.

Total invested: 2400 EUR
Current net value: 2779 EUR
True gain (dividends + unrealized gain): +15,8%

I underperformed S&P500, but not sad about it. To be honest, about a 14% price gain is far more than I expected. I was aiming for a small price gain of around 4-7% and 2,5-4% YoC so can't really complain.

2025:

For this year, I would like to still be quite conservative about my expectations and keep them as in the year before - an unrealized gain of 4-7% and 2,5-4% YoC

Goals:

Invest a total of: 6k to 8,4k EUR
Individual stocks I plan to buy the most: $ASML (+0,9%)
$TTE (+0,34%)
$VICI (+0,28%)
+ if the price will be good $MAIN (-0,27%)
$V (+0,3%)
$PEP (+0,68%)
$TXN (-0,84%)
ETF I plan to buy: $SPY5 (-0,04%)
My priority will be making extra mortgage payments to decrease number of years needed to pay it off. I plan to do it on monthly basis. I aim to 10-18k EUR total in this year.
Rebuild emergency fund of 2-3 months of expenses.

I plan to make posts each month about my progress so if you like to see how I'm doing, feel free to follow :)

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3Semana·

Almost End of Year Resolution

I have already trimmed my $MSTR (-1,74%) and $COIN (-0,68%) positions and opened a small position in $HOOD (+0,18%) for a bit of long-term investment.

Nothing wrong with $MSTR (-1,74%) but I considered it as selling $BTC for over 250K.

Completely out of $AMAT (+0,37%) instead, I focused on only $ASML (+0,9%), might add $AMAT again but for a better price or better market conditions.

I recently bought $MU (+0,19%) because it is extremely undervalued, I will add more after earning which is in 2 days.

Buy List for 2025 at the right price

Selling 2025

ETF's that I will keep DCAing for 2025

$VEUR (+0,43%)

$SPY5 (-0,04%)

$VFEM (+0,13%)

any suggestions are welcome

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5 Comentários

Akef M.@InvestingDetective

3Semana

Personally, I think $MU is a bit more undervalued compared to $LRCX , but $LRCX has a better track record when it comes to dividend and share buy backs. I already hold enough $LRCX and am not adding more as of right now.

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Dan M.

@D_M00

1Mês·

Hey everyone! I’m 22 and just started getting into investing recently, so I’m still figuring things out. I had some cash just sitting in my bank account, and I realized that was a dumb move—I should’ve started investing sooner. So, I took a bit of that money and bought some stocks, ETFs, and crypto. I’d love to get some tips, feedback on my portfolio, or any suggestions for good stocks to buy. Also, if you could share any advice on making money from dividends and reinvesting, that’d be awesome. Right now, I’m thinking about an ETF I own $SPY5 (-0,04%) —people have suggested I sell it and switch to something else. I’m considering selling it and buying $VUSA (+0,04%) instead. What do you all think? Thanks!

10Posições

€ 1.823,89

5,00%

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6 Comentários

Teo@teoo

1Mês

Well, I would like to hear why you would think that Vusa is better than spy5? Anyways portfolio looks great

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Teo

@teoo

3Mês·

Investment decision!

Which S&P 500 etf would you rather choose?

$SPY5 (-0,04%) or $VUSA (+0,04%) ?

If so, can you please elaborate. I have a hard time of choosing between them and focusing on both, of course doesn’t make any sense.

Thank you in advance!

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Hebel-Horst@DoppelSchlechtMinus

3Mês

Historical performance of $VUSA is slightly better despite of higher TER, so I would go for that one.

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Rob314

@Rob314

6Mês·

Which ETF would you prefer for a long-term investment (>20 years) in terms of dividend growth. I only want it as an addition. The country weighting is therefore not important for the time being.

I have looked at these so far:

I have to be honest, I like them all quite a lot, although I'm almost leaning towards the $SPY5 (-0,04%) even though it is not geared towards dividend growth, it has increased the dividend substantially in the past. Combined with the share price performance and the low cost of 0.03, I find it really attractive.

What do you think?

Do you have any other suggestions?

Thank you for your opinions.

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25 Comentários

Kosmonaut@Kosmonaut

6Mês

I was recently informed that most of the ETFs you mentioned are not dividend growth ETFs. Because the background is not about stocks whose dividends grow, but there are many more stocks on the Quality Index that pay dividends.
So $FGEQ, for example, is theoretically an MSCi World minus "no quality companies" minus "no dividend payers". This is why, for example, $NVDA is also included, as it only pays a minimal proportion of dividends.
There is also a good article on this by a user.

But to your question:
I myself have built my portfolio in such a way that the value of the dividends is around 2% and can grow over the years. I have combined a core-satellite strategy with $VWRL as the core, the strong dividend payer $TDIV and the combination $FGEQ as the satellite.

I am very happy with my decision so far.

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Rob314

@Rob314

6Mês·

Hello again to everyone,

I am currently saving the $TDIV (-0,09%) and the $SPY5 (-0,04%) .

Now I'm thinking about adding a third ETF. Does that make sense from your point of view or do you think the diversification with the two ETFs is sufficient?

In the $TDIV (-0,09%) are 100 companies with a USA share of approx. 20%.

My consideration would be to cover the Asian region in some way.

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Rob314

@Rob314

6Mês·

Hello everyone,

I'm still "relatively" new to the stock market. Even though I've been investing sporadically for a few years now, I've been really interested in sticking with it for the long term since this year.

I save 2 ETfs with a total of €500/month. The $TDIV (-0,09%) and the $SPY5 (-0,04%) . I also have around 35% of my almost €23,000 in individual shares and BTC. But that's not the point.

I would like to expand my general knowledge of the stock market and would like your recommendations for books in this area.

I have already read the book by Finanzfluss and the book "Souverän investieren mit Indexfonds" by Gerd Kommer is already available. I also read the book by Beate Sander (Börsenführerschein) two years ago, but I didn't really get much out of it back then.

What else would you recommend with regard to individual shares or investing in the stock market in general?

Regards

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7 Comentários

Melvin14@14JahreBWLer_Vaters_Sohn

6Mês

When Lambo" by Prof. Dr. Goldgraf!

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KingC

@RaphGM

11Mês·

🇯🇵 Japan 🇯🇵

Since the beginning of this year, the Nikkei 225 has performed really well compared to other major indices such as the S&P500.

Here is a small comparison between:

$XDJP (-0,73%) 🇯🇵

$SPY5 (-0,04%) 🇺🇸

$CD5 (+0,46%) 🇪🇺

$VWRL (-0,05%) 🇺🇳

According to William Pesek for Barron's (link to article below), there are three reasons:

- Favorable P/E ratios;

- A central bank still pressing on the monetary gas pedal;

- A renaissance in Japanese corporate governance.

I have been overweight Japan in my portfolio for several months (~15%-17%).

Are you invested in Japan?

Are you bullish?

Japan's Bull Run Is Due for a Reality Check: https://www.barrons.com/articles/japan-bull-run-is-due-for-a-reality-check-yen-stock-7b24359e

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8 Comentários

DerMartin@DerMartin

11Mês

I've had Shimano for a year now. Seems to be the only stock that hasn't gone up... 😂
(Decided against a Japan ETF at the time because I was sure Shimano would do better). Call me "the brain"

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Topper H.

@TopperHarley

11Mês·

Major shopping spree January 2024

Share/ETF number 17/18

22.01

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Comprado x15 em € 445,30

€ 6.679,50

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9 Comentários

Stefan@InvestmentPapa

11Mês

Spamer! 🫢😜

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SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Price

Discussão sobre SPY5

My Q1 & Q2 predictions

YoY overview

Almost End of Year Resolution

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