estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Twenty years ago, the new market crash wiped out my first stock market money and my ego. I swore off the stock market, but my pension certificate showed me that ducking out has an expiry date.

So the first attempts to start again followed. Here on Getquin, I have learned from positive critical voices from e.g. @DonkeyInvestor and @Epi that there is more to it than "just picking something". Since my last post 6 months ago, this was followed by extreme late-night brooding, Excel monsters, AI research, reading Kommer and countless "new agains".

I have tried to read up on modern optimization models such as Mean-Variance, Black-Litterman and Fama-French etc. and implement them in the best possible way.

The result was this portfolio!

As thoroughly tested as you can in a private garage, and coupled with the insight that we only have to leave the uncontrollable to chance.

And one thing first. I am convinced of this and will not change it.

I just want to share my thoughts and ideas about the direction with you. It's difficult to really explain every detail here, I'm sure I could do it better in a conversation, but that's not possible here. I can assure you that the selection and combination definitely makes sense - at least for me and the construct. Among other things, it was important to me to be able to control individual regions separately. I think I have achieved that.

Global (30%)

- SPDR MSCI All Country World, $SPYY (-1,34%)

- L&G Global Equity UCITS ETF, $LGGG (-0,54%)

- iShares Edge MSCI World Momentum, $IS3R (-1%)

- Xtrackers MSCI World Value, $XDEV (-0,9%)

- Invesco Global Active ESG Equity, $IQSA (-0,6%)

- VanEck World Equal Weight Screened, $TSWE (-0,42%)

- VanEck Morningstar Developed Markets Dividend Leaders, $TDIV (+0,04%)

USA (31.5%)

- L&G US Equity, $LGUG (-0,65%)

- iShares MSCI USA Mid-Cap Equal Weight, $IUSF (-0,61%)

- JPMorgan BetaBuilders US Small Cap Equity, $BBCS (-1,08%)

- SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted, $ZPRV (-0,24%)

Europe (17.5%)

- HSBC EURO STOXX 50, $H50A (-1,35%)

- L&G Europe ex-UK Quality Dividends Equal Weight, $LDEG (-1,38%)

- SPDR MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted, $ZPRX (-1,01%)

Emerging markets (19%)

- iShares Edge MSCI Emerging Markets Value Factor, $5MVL (-1,34%)

- UBS LFS MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, $EMMUSA (-1,75%)

- L&G Emerging Markets Quality Dividends Equal Weight, $LDME (-1,49%)

- SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap, $SPYX (-1,29%)

Japan (2%)

- L&G Japan Equity UCITS ETF, $LGJG (-0,34%)

Ø TER = 0.25%

In summary, this gives the following breakdown

Regional breakdown

- USA (North America) ~ 48%

- Asia ~ 22%

- Europe ~ 22%

- UK ~ 3.6%

- Japan ~ 4.4%

Market capitalization

- Large Cap ~ 52%

- Mid Cap ~ 26%

- Small Cap ~ 22%

The portfolio deliberately allocates its capital to the regions and - where possible - to all capitalization classes. The world building blocks provide the global beta; value, momentum and quality satellites add factor premiums. In the USA, a complete large/mid/small stack provides a pronounced size bias, while Europe receives a value bias via quality and small value ETFs. The emerging layer combines large-cap value stocks, quality leaders and a small-cap module - a diversification anchor beyond the developed markets.

Due to the almost equal weighting of the 18 positions, the Herfindahl index of ETF weights falls to ~633; indirectly, the portfolio contains several thousand individual stocks. The weighted TER is ≈ 0.25 % p. a., spreads below 0.1 %. This means that, compared to a $GERD (-1,3%) a favorable multifactor portfolio myself.

The factor tilts (value 42 %, size 35 %, quality/div ≈ 12 %, momentum ≈ 8 %) increase the expected volatility moderately to 18-20 % p.a.; however, historical data on small and value indices indicate 1-2 percentage points additional return over long horizons. Large caps remain present at around 52 %, mid caps at 26 % and small caps at 22 % support the size premium .

With my "multi-factor all-cap portfolio", I combine global market coverage with five proven premiums, without cost or concentration ballast. Of course, I will have to endure additional fluctuations, but I believe that I have created a robust source of returns over the long term.

I have tried to consider everything and leave nothing to chance, except the uncontrollable.

Anyone who has made it this far. Thanks for reading.

I'm looking forward to your feedback.

PS:

YES, I have Bitcoin😉 and also two themed ETFs. They just stay like that.

- ARK AI & Robotics ETF, $AAKI (-2,21%)

- HanETF Future of Defense ETF, $ASWC (-0,97%)

- ETC GROUP CORE BITCOIN, $BTC1 (-2,52%)

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no investment advice; DYOR

Thanks also to @VPT , @Mister_ultra , @Ph1l1pp , @ShrimpTheGimp , @MoneyISnotREAL , @Staatsmann and @Smudeo for commenting and providing approaches.

Hello dear community,

Recently my portfolio and its logic was presented in an article by Business Insider and analyzed by Konrad Kleinfeld from SPDR. There was some exciting feedback, but of course I would also like to activate your swarm intelligence and get your feedback 🙂

First of all: Although I am pursuing a core-satellite strategy, the "satellite" does not aim to outperform, but is simply for fun and offers room for investments that do not fit into the logic of the core. The satellite consists largely of ETFs (e.g. in commodities, real estate, private equity, REITs, etc.), but only accounts for <10% of the overall portfolio and is not included here.

My goal is broad diversification that goes beyond a pure market capitalization-based index as well as long-term returns.

In doing so, I rely on a rule-based approach and diversify along factors based on the selection criteria of the indices. As I deliberately do not want to make any sector or regional bets in the "core", but instead focus purely on the selection criteria of the indices, the relatively significant dividend block serves to reduce the US lump, as high-dividend companies are more frequently found in Europe.

Since the portfolio is quite granular, the portfolio overview function would be very confusing, so I hope it is easy to understand in text form:

1. MSCI World Block (40%):

$SPPW (-1,05%) MSCI World (10%)

$XDEM (-1,47%) MSCI World Momentum (10%)

$XDEQ (-0,45%) MSCI World Quality (10%)

$XDEV (-0,9%) MSCI World Value (5%)

$WSML (-0,7%) MSCI World Small Cap (5%)

Momentum, Quality and Size in the sense of the "normal", market-capitalized MSCI World are weighted slightly higher, as they have historically performed better and should logically perform better in a long-term positive market environment.

2. emerging markets block (20%):

$SPYM (-1,52%) MSCI Emerging Markets (6.67%)

$SPYX (-1,29%) MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap (6.67%)

$5MVL (-1,34%) MSCI Emerging Markets Value (6.67%)

⚠ There are currently no ETFs on the MSCI EM Quality and MSCI EM Momentum indices that are available in UCITS form and tradable in Europe. Therefore, the logic of the EM block does not yet exactly reflect the structure of the World block. As soon as these ETFs are available, the block will be adjusted accordingly. Consequently, the "normal" MSCI EM as well as the value factor and small caps are currently equally weighted here.

3rd Dividend block (30%):

$VHYL (-0,64%) FTSE All-World High Dividend Yield (5%)

$TDIV (+0,04%) Developed Markets Dividend Leaders (10%)

$ISPA (-0,89%) Global Select Dividend 100 (10%)

$ZPRG (-0,14%) S&P Global Dividend Aristocrats (5%)

As mentioned, this block serves 1) to reduce the US lump, is also distributing and thus provides cash flow, which 2) is used for rebalancing at the end of the year (so I don't have to spend any additional capital on this, which has a psychological effect for me) and 3) the monthly distributions motivate me to continue investing intensively. In addition, 4) the tax-free allowance is utilized without having to actively sell shares in the other "blocks". The top 10 holdings of the individual ETFs differ greatly here despite the common denominator of "high yield". However, the financial sector is a large lump. The weighting here is derived from the high yield and diversification in the sense of complementing the other "blocks" (i.e. little tech and little US).

4. hedge bonds (10%):

$IBCI (-0,18%) Euro Inflation Linked Government Bond (10%)

My equity allocation is (roughly) based on the rule "120 minus age", so 10% is currently left for bonds. The purpose of a bond block in the portfolio is stabilization and further diversification. With shares, I give a company capital, i.e. I become a stakeholder in the company. Corporate bonds have the same logic, because here I am also giving capital to companies. That's why I opted for government bonds in the eurozone. TIPS have performed comparatively well here in the past and the logic of inflation-linked interest rates also appeals to me.

📈 Additional considerations:

1. i deliberately do without the "Low / Min Volatility" factor, as i assume a rising market in the long term and would like to participate more in the positive phases instead of reducing the vola.

2) I don't see overlaps between ETFs as a problem, but rather as a deliberate overweighting of companies that fulfill several criteria at the same time. Of course, many companies currently overlap in the classic MSCI World and the Quality and Momentum variants. However, the selection criteria are different and as soon as a company no longer meets the quality criteria, for example, it automatically drops out of the index and the weighting is reduced without me having to actively do anything about it.

3) I have actively decided not to invest in a multi-factor ETF because I want to have transparent control over the allocation of the individual factors and many of the factor ETFs available combine the selection criteria underlying the individual factors in such a way that the corresponding product would have performed well in the past, which of course represents a hindsight bias and does not necessarily correlate with future performance.

💡 To those of you who have read this far:

First of all, thank you for your time! The portfolio is intended to dynamically reflect a section of the market that could develop positively in a diversified manner based on the different selection criteria of the indices, without taking bets on specific sectors or regions. What do you think of the allocation and the strategy? Do you see any room for improvement or things you would do differently?

Thanks for reading, showing interest and thinking along. 😊

#etfs
#portfolio
#portfoliocheck

Preface:

In the following, I would like to present how my portfolio has developed over the course of 2024.

This includes

1) my strategic orientation

2)Return on the portfolio.

The main topics are:

• Moving away from individual stocks
• Entry into gold and bitcoin
• Factor investing

Finally, I will give my own thoughts on how to proceed.

The main changes to my portfolio that have led

to my current strategy are presented below using a short timeline.

timeline:

My timeline

Beginning of 2024

At the beginning of the year, I pursued a 70/30 core satellite

strategy. The 70% ETF core again consisted of STOXX Europe.

MSCI World, Emerging Markets.

The 30% consisted of stocks such as: $CSIQ (-3,63%) , $O (-0,11%) ,$TSM (-2,02%)
$ADM (-1,22%)
$UMI (-2,9%)
$D05 (-0,96%)
$BMW (-1,49%)
$UKW (-0,43%)
$8031 (-7,21%)
$MUV2 (-1,56%)

February

Addition of gold to my portfolio. Target size 10%. Build-up in batches.

The remaining 70/30 strategy therefore only relates to the remaining

90%.

April-June:

Entry into Bitcoin via Trade Republic in several batches

at prices between 50k and 63k.

After exchange with @Epi to the fee schedule at Trade Republic

I sold them there in order to sell Bitcoin on a dedicated crypto exchange.

exchange.

June:

Thanks to @PowerWordChill I got to grips with factor investing. A Gerd Kommer book later, and after some internet research, I decided to

decided to transform my ETF strategy into a factor ETF strategy.

July-August 2024:

Sale of my shares. Concentration on the factor portfolio.

August - September 24:

Renewed build-up of Bitcoin with the aim of making Bitcoin a

a fixed component of the portfolio. Consideration is 5%-10%

of my portfolio.

The idea. Build up an initial position, then make regular

investments of €50 per week with the aim of growing to the target size

to grow to the target size. The rapid rise in October/November led me to

led me to leave it at €50 per week. And individual purchases in

larger tranches at an early stage with a portfolio size of 2.x%.

End of December 2024:

Position size of Bitcoin almost 5%.

I am not yet including Bitcoin in my gold/ETF quota. I'm still running it on the side.

I re-evaluated my factor weighting at the end of the year

and would like to fine-tune it a little. I will briefly present the result in the

following section.

In addition, I have decided to include a small

include a small proportion of real estate stocks. However, this will probably never

part of my strategy worth mentioning and contains - as of today - only

about 3% of my portfolio and only $O (-0,11%) ).

Overall breakdown of my portfolio:

As described above, I do not yet include Bitcoin in my overall strategy

part of my overall strategy so that rebalancing remains easier. This will

change when Bitcoin reaches its target size.

The rest is made up as follows:

ETFs:

$XDEM (-1,47%) 30.3% (MSCI World Momentum)

$XDEB (-0,02%) 10.1% (MSCI World Minimum Volatility)

$XDEV (-0,9%) 10.1% (MSCI World Value)

$ZPRV (-0,24%) 15% (MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted)

$ZPRX (-1,01%) 6.5% (MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted)

$PEH (-1,23%) 4.5% (as a quality factor on emerging markets)

$5MVL (-1,34%) 4.5% (Edge MSCI EM Value)

$SPYX (-1,29%) 9% (MSCI EM Small Cap)

Gold

$EWG2 (-7,26%) 10% Gold ETC

Getquin Rewind and own data:

At the end of the post you will find my Getquin Rewind, as I was not able to embed the image in the text:

However, according to my own calculations, this cannot be correct.

My portfolio volume at the start of the year was around €103,500 with a return of €16,693. This would correspond to a total return of 19.2%. However, we are not yet talking about a time-weighted return, as my invested capital has roughly doubled over the course of the year. I therefore estimate my TTWROR to be higher.

My own thoughts and outlook:

I do not expect any major changes in strategy over the next few years. At some point, a strategy will have to be established. If necessary, I will make some adjustments to this strategy.

This includes the fact that I am dissatisfied with the costs of the emerging markets factor ETFs. So far, however, I intend to live with it. Should I

stumble across better products, I will consider switching. Especially as long as I stay within the tax allowance when switching.

I'll also have to decide how big my Bitcoin holding should ultimately be.

If you've been reading carefully, you'll notice that a lot of money has accumulated in the last year. Big profits, big investments. Due to personal circumstances, I will not maintain these rates in the same style, but will reduce them somewhat. I expect to be able to continue investing around 1.5-2k per month. This means that my financial goals are

with an expected return of 5% adjusted for inflation over many years.

I am half hoping for major setbacks in the near future and the associated favorable entries. However, in view of the impact that minor price jolts have had on society as a whole (thanks to populism), I don't really wish for them.

Do you have any suggestions, questions or comments? Is there anything that particularly interests you?

I am also happy to receive suggestions for improvement for future posts.

Best regards,

Your Smurf

PS: @DonkeyInvestor and me, that's love ❤. And now send me your coins! (So I can reward your next post appropriately).

PPS: I hope someone is interested.

Hi Community, I need your swarm knowledge to help me select ETFs (or shares) to expand my portfolio to the Asian market (no China!). Possibly also towards Australia.

I'm not really happy with my selection yet, as I only want to have one more ETF, but there doesn't seem to be a suitable index?

At the moment I am leaning towards the following two:

$FVSJ (-1,67%) for everything except China (and unfortunately Japan)

and then

$XDJP (+0,46%) for Japan as compensation

maybe you know an "all-in-one"?

TER should be comparatively low.

I'd also like not so much IT, I already have more than enough ;-).

As I said, no or really only very little China (I sold mine $EIMI (-1,83%) that's why I sold mine).

$FVSJ (-1,67%) actually has too low a fund volume for me.

$IJPA (-1,34%) would also be an alternative to $XDJP (+0,46%) .

$SPYX (-1,29%) is too expensive for me.

perhaps an Asia Pacific would also be interesting? Then I could also take Australia with me, e.g. $VAPU (-1,1%) / $VAPX (-1,26%) instead of $FVSJ (-1,67%) ?

Opinions on this? Other ideas?

Thanks for your support

#etf
#etfs
#japan
#asien
#indien
#taiwan
#hongkong
#australien
#asia
#pacific

Source with info why Japan is not part of most Asia (Pacific) ETFs: https://www.justetf.com/de/how-to/invest-in-asia-pacific.html

Fun fact of the day:

German leading index DAX makes new ATH. $LYY7 (-1,48%)

Emerging markets small caps make new ATH. $SPYX (-1,29%)

Does anyone see a connection? 😅

November monthly update GTAA

The exit in Nasdaq100 was extremely unfavorable at the low at the turn of the month and the subsequent run. That was bad luck, but you have to live with such statistical fluctuations if you invest based on rules.

Nevertheless, the month of November was quite okay overall with gold (EUR hedged) and short JPY/USD (+0.3%).

Let's continue with the allocation for December:

50% Emerging Markets Smallcaps (14k)

33% Nasdaq 100 (9.3k)

17% Bitcoin/ $MSTR (-2,53%) (4,7k)

Due to the high trading costs for BTC on Traderepublic (2% spread = approx. 100€!) I switched to MicroStrategy, whose market capitalization is 80% covered by BTC and whose price performance correlates to 0.9 with BTC (0.5% spread = approx. 25€).

What do you think of this measure? What opportunities do you see to trade BTC cheaply on TR instead?

And what do you think about the December allocation? Do you also see a year-end rally, especially in the emerging markets?

GTAA - Adjustment at the turn of the month

The month of August brought a performance of -2.9%. This brings the total weighted return since the 02/23 launch down to 3.3%.

The main reason was the -10% of Bitcoin, which was weighted at just over 20%. Bitcoin has also fallen below the 200d average as a result and is therefore sold. The model switches to Top2 mode.

Nasdaq100 continues to have the strongest momentum, but due to the historically poor performance in September, it remains at 50% of the given investment volume resulting from the sales in August.

EMU Value is now replaced by EM Smallcaps.

The new portfolio allocation is thus:

50% EM SC $SPYX (-1,29%)

25% Nasdaq100 $CSNDX (-1,09%)

25% Cash

GTAA is a process.

too expensive 0,55TER