🇺🇸 The U.S. economy added only 29,000 new jobs in September—compared to expectations of around 90,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.

On top of that, there were significant downward revisions:

July: from +21,000 to −10,000

August: from +162,000 to +133,000

Combined, this represents a shortfall of 60,000 jobs compared to the previous figures.

Wage growth is also slowing:

+0.1% month-over-month

+3.0% year-over-year—the slowest wage growth since May 2021

What does this mean for the stock market?

The Fed raised interest rates in September, and another rate hike was on the table for the meeting at the end of October. Following this data, the probability of an October rate hike is now priced in at only about 15%, down from 25% the previous day.

A weaker labor market and slower wage growth could ease inflationary pressures. However, the market is still largely pricing in a rate hike for December—the key factor will be whether the slowdown continues.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

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🇺🇸 PCE inflation figures rose 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY in August—compared with expectations of 3.7%.

The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, stands at 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY, instead of the expected 3.3%.

At the same time, consumer spending is rising: +0.9% MoM (price-adjusted: +0.6% MoM) and incomes are up +0.2% MoM.

What does this mean for the stock market?

Price pressures are easing, but demand is not. The central bank’s benchmark interest rate directly affects demand. The fact that inflation is slowing while, on a price-adjusted basis, people are buying more suggests that the next interest rate hike is more likely to be delayed than canceled. As a result, the probability of another Fed rate hike on October 28 has fallen to below 50%:

https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026

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Slows down Dario Amodeis Is the call for a slower pace in AI now hampering the industry’s growth? The Anthropic CEO called for this over the weekend in his essay “We Must Pace the Frontier”—to deliberately slow the advancement of AI model capabilities— OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and xAI CEO Elon Musk publicly agreed within hours.

Amodei’s core argument: Recursive self-improvement and security incidents such as the OpenAI Hugging Face incident showed that the models’ capabilities are growing faster than the ability to control them. His three-step plan begins with independent auditors working directly within the companies. By this, he means not
halt to training, but rather more time for safety work to proceed in parallel with progress.

Why many see this as a brake on growth

Within the community, the call is being interpreted as a warning sign regarding the AI industry’s high growth rates. A slower pace in the release of new models could dampen demand for fresh computing power and thus weigh on the valuations of AI companies and Neoclouds. Coinciding with the announcement, market prices for Anthropic and OpenAI shares fell.

Why this misses the actual driver of growth

Amodei’s appeal targets the training of new models—and it is precisely this part of the AI value chain that is now the smaller and shrinking segment. According to Deloitte, by 2026, around two-thirds of global AI computing power will be directed toward inference (the ongoing operation of already trained models).

And it is precisely this demand for inference that is growing faster than ever before:

• $GOOGL (+0,84%)-Cloud order backlog: from $240 billion to $460 billion within one quarter
• Tokens processed by Google: 16 billion per minute, an increase of 60% compared to the previous quarter
• $MSFT (+2,41%): AI order backlog increased more than twelvefold
• GPU rental prices have grown from ~10 million/MW in early 2026 to as much as ~40–50 million/MW today

So the real bottleneck remains computing power itself, not the political will to slow things down. Microsoft and Google each have investment budgets of around $180–190 billion just to meet demand at all. Training pacing is unlikely to make much of a difference to this scarcity as long as current models are already so powerful for users that demand for their use continues to grow.

Overall , the appeal seems more like a shift in priorities—away from a pure race for capabilities and toward greater safety and control. In my opinion, it is wrong to believe that this will act as a brake on the entire AI value chain.

The largest and fastest-growing part of it—inference—remains virtually untouched by the debate.

This announcement could also come at a strategically opportune time: Training new frontier models costs a great deal of money (tens of billions per model). A deliberately slowed pace would alleviate precisely this cost burden and improve the profitability of Anthropic and OpenAI, just before both are set to make potential IPOs . This safety call—which, incidentally, protects their own balance sheets—comes at just the right time for the model providers.

What are your thoughts on this?

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Sources:

https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier

https://www.deloitte.com/global/en/about/press-room/2026-tmt-predictions.html

🇺🇸 U.S. consumer prices rose by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% YoY —both exactly as expected. The core rate, excluding food and energy, stands at 2.4% YoY , marking the lowest level since March 2021.

The difference between the overall and core inflation rates is almost entirely due to energy:

• Energy: +2.1% MoM, +16.3% YoY
• Gasoline: +3.9% MoM, +27.4% YoY
• Heating oil: +10.1% MoM, +52.0% YoY

The housing costs , the largest single item, rose by only 0.3% MoM and 3.0% YoY.

What does this mean for the stock market?

The Fed will meet on September 15–16 with a target range for the federal funds rate of 3.50–3.75%. A 25-basis-point increase is currently priced in. The fact that the core rate is simultaneously at its lowest level since 2021 suggests that price pressures are currently external and not from the domestic economy. The key interest rate affects demand, not the price of oil—an increase would therefore serve only as a precaution against the energy shock spreading to the broader economy.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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🇺🇸 The U.S. producer prices rose by +0.4% month-over-month and by +5.4% year-over-year.

Excluding food and energy: +0.3% month-over-month, +4.7% year-over-year

The main driver is high energy costs. Prices for goods rose by 1.1%, while services rose by only 0.1% — diesel fuel alone saw a double-digit increase, coinciding with the rise in oil prices above the $100 mark. In addition, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) has revised the data for April through July: July, originally reported as unchanged, now stands at +0.1%.

This puts the Fed (Federal Reserve) in an uncomfortable position:

Inflationary pressure is coming from the oil market —that is, from a source that the federal funds rate cannot influence: Higher interest rates do not bring additional crude oil into the market; they merely dampen domestic demand. If the Fed raises rates anyway, it slows the economy due to a price spike that could subside on its own if the conflict eases. If it doesn’t raise rates, it risks triggering a second wave of inflation.

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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

🇺🇸 The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August—compared to the expected 53,000. This is the strongest month since March, and the figures for previous months were also revised upward:

• June: from +20,000 to +31,000
• July: from –23,000 to +21,000
• Total: 55,000 more jobs than previously reported
• Unemployment rate: 4.1%, unchanged—despite a 0.2-point increase in labor force participation
• Hourly wages: +0.3% compared to the previous month, +3.1% compared to the previous year

The increase was driven by a few sectors: restaurants +59,000, municipal education +42,000. The information sector, on the other hand, lost 23,000 jobs.

What does this mean for the stock market?

The theory that “the labor market is collapsing” was recently the strongest argument against an interest rate hike.

With this report, that argument is off the table for now.

The probability of a rate hike on September 16, as priced in by the market, rose to 59.4% following the report% from 49.4% on the day before the announcement.

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Sources:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Expensive, cheap, crash, bull market, bear market... none of that matters to my savings plans... just keep going

🇺🇸 The U.S. economy grew by 1.5% year-over-year—exactly as expected, but significantly slower than the 2.1% in the first quarter. At the same time, inflation came in higher than expected:

• Total PCE inflation: 3.7% in July, compared to an expected 3.6%
• Core rate: 3.3%, as expected
• Personal income: +0.4% monthly
• Real consumption: 0.0%

At least we’re heading in the right direction: In May, the inflation rate was still 4.1%. Nevertheless, the rate is still nearly twice as high than the Fed’s 2% target.

What does this mean for the stock market?

If growth were slowing, a rate cut would be the usual response. But with inflation at 3.7%, a rate cut would likely intensify price pressures.

This dilemma could explain why the Fed, on July 29, decided to 9 to 3 to keep interest rates steady—and all three dissenting votes were in favor of a hike , not for a cut.

On Friday, Kevin Warsh will speak for the first time in Jackson Hole (a gathering of the world’s leading central bank governors and economists)—his tone is likely to shape expectations for September 16 (the next interest rate decision).

https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter-2026
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2026

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