I had described here https://getqu.in/wtMaho/ described an investment reserve that can generate an excess return with similar or lower volatility than the overall market.

Very abbreviated:

We hold 20% in cash bonds and gold and start buying in reset, parameterized with increasing leverage.

What has changed since the last post?

1. all US bonds and US dollar cash have been removed from the portfolio, the uncertainties surrounding the Mar-a-Lago Accord are simply too great in relation to the opportunity to take a few percentage points in currency gains.

2. as it was (rightly) pointed out that the strategy is somewhat fragmented, I decided to make a few small adjustments.

The inflation-linked government bonds have left the portfolio. On reflection, money market funds and long-dated bonds are completely sufficient to compensate for inflation. (thanks for the comment @SchlaubiSchlumpf )

The investment reserve therefore looks like this:

-------------------------------------------

EURO

30.0% Money Market $CSH2 (+0,01%)

30.0% German Gov. Bonds 7+Y $X03G (+0,56%)

-------------------------------------30%

Swiss Franc

20.0% Swiss Gov.Bonds 7-10Y $CH0440081393 (+0,55%)

-------------------------------------20%

Swiss Gold

20.0% Gold $EWG2 (-0,53%)

-------------------------------------20%

==========100%==========

3. on the way south, the portfolio has already been rebalanced twice.

In concrete terms, this means that bonds have been sold and the $VWCE (-5,52%) bought so that the 80/20 ratio is maintained.

The $ACWI in USD broke through the threshold of 10% to its all-time high today, whereby the first still leveraged position was built up.

Purchased were:

2.5% MSCI World Ex USA $EXUS (-5,25%)

1.0% MSCI USA 2x $CL2 (-9,18%)

This means that the first 17.5% of our investment reserve is now invested.

The next purchase will be made when the $ACWI 20% away from the ATH, which would then be around $100.00

Greetings,

I have a question regarding the currency risk in ETFs.

As you know, the dollar is the world's currency and is traded almost everywhere, so there is a big currency risk.

I know that you should invest for the long term, accept setbacks and other risks.

There is more chunk risk of the Americans in the World or Allworld.

The Ex USA ETF $EXUS (-5,25%) is 50% European and the currency is almost 30% in euros and 6% in dollars.

Does it make sense to buy this ETF in the current situation (no portfolio yet) + an additional S&P500 $CSPX (-5,42%) at a later date, when the dollar is doing better again?

Or the simple Allworld "with eyes closed and through"?

Many thanks for the usual qualified answers :)

Foreword:

An investment reserve can be a great thing, it smoothes out volatility and in extreme phases you have the opportunity to implement something meaningful in your portfolio, which has a very calming effect psychologically.

Unfortunately, the expected additional return from buy the dip often fails to materialize, as the opportunity costs eat everything up again.

Very nicely described here by Gerd Kommer:

https://gerd-kommer.de/buy-the-dip/

But what if we turn a few screws, don't hold our investment reserves in cash and buy leveraged?

I have thought too much about this topic and built a model for a war chest, which I am also implementing myself.

Building up the reserve:

Investment Reserve

-------------------------------------------

EURO

10.0% Money Market / 0-1y Bonds EUR $CSH2 (+0,01%)

10.0% Inflation linked Gov. Bonds $IBCI (-0,11%)

10.0% German Gov. Bonds 7+Y $X03G (+0,56%)

-------------------------------------30%

US Dollar

10.0% Money Market / 0-1y Bonds USD $XFFE (+0,84%)

10.0% Inflation linked Gov. Bonds $XTIP (+0,68%)

10.0% US Gov. Bonds 7-10Y $US7 (+1,4%)

-------------------------------------30%

Swiss Franc

20.0% Swiss Gov.Bonds 7-10Y $CH0440081393 (+0,55%)

-------------------------------------20%

Swiss Gold

20.0% Gold $EWG2 (-0,53%)

-------------------------------------20%

==========100%==========

The reserve must be structured in such a way that it is not torn apart in a crisis. In the best-case scenario, parts of the reserve should even rise during crises.

This is why part of it consists of government bonds; in economic crises, interest rates are generally lowered, which is why long-term bonds should rise. Currency crises are also conceivable, which is why we diversify across currencies. (EUR / USD and CHF)

As inflationary phases can certainly occur, I have decided to include inflation-indexed government bonds and gold.

The total of 4% in money market funds exists in order to have a volatility-free position.

This reserve is not a standalone, it should be seen as part of a global portfolio and can make up between 10% and 30% of the total portfolio.

It is not intended to generate returns, but merely to compensate for inflation and to remain stable in value during crises.

The strategy:

As an anchor point we use the all-time high of the $ACWI (USD) from -10% we invest step by step. We try to buy the ACWI with increasing leverage. As there is no 2x ACWI, FTSE All-World, MSCI World or similar, we have to build our own as best we can. I don't want to use certificates because they have a counterparty risk. That's why I only use ETFs and ETCs.

Mode 1 ACWI -10% - Lev. 1.25x - Correction

5.00% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-9,18%)

11.0% World ex USA $EXUS (-5,25%)

4.0% Emerging Markets $EIMI (-4,57%)

-------------------------------------20%

Mode 2 ACWI -20% - 1.82x Lev - Crisis

12.0% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-9,18%)

6.8% Euro Stoxx 50 2X Lev. $LVE (-10,6%)

1.7% FTSE 100 2X Lev. $LUK2

4.5% Japan $PRAJ (-3,5%)

-------------------------------------25%

Mode 3 ACWI -30% - 2.35x Lev - Escalation I

12.0% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-9,18%)

4.8% Euro Stoxx 50 2X Lev. $LVE (-10,6%)

1.2% FTSE 100 2X Lev. $LUK2

9.5% Total World 3X Lev.$3VTE

-------------------------------------27,5%

Mode 4 ACWI- 40% - 3x Lev. - Escalation II

27.5% Total World 3X Lev. $3VTE

-------------------------------------27,5%

==========100%==========

Rebalancing

After the crash is before the crash, the investment reserve must be replenished.

After the price has recovered a distance of approx. 60% from the low to the top (ACWI), I would recommend selling all Total World 3X Lev. positions and thus filling the reserve.

The rest of the reserve can then be filled with your savings rates and partial sales of the 2x positions.

Since we do not put the return from this "trade" completely back into the bond, but keep a part of the "Do-It-Yourself-Leveraged-Getto-ACWI", we build up a small leverage over time, at favorable conditions.

Problems and risks:

Especially if it goes down further than 50%, things can get ugly.

In the 2019 financial crisis, for example, we would have made -58%. As a result, the recovery would have taken 1 year longer than if we had bought a normal ACWI. However, in all other corrections (including Corona), we would have come out of the crisis better with this strategy and would have generated an annual outperformance of 1-2% p.a. after tax (varies depending on the period).

In long bull markets, without significant corrections, this strategy underperforms. In sideways markets, we should outperform a 100% equity portfolio due to the interest income.

It is not entirely clear which part of the investment reserve will be sold first and which last. Depending on the nature of the crisis, some shares may rise and others may fall.

If it is a debt crisis, for example, it may not be wise to sell your gold right at the beginning. If it is an economic crisis, long-dated bonds are king, although inflation-linked bonds will probably suffer somewhat.

If you don't want to be caught on the wrong foot here, you can always sell 50% of the best-performing asset and 50% of the worst-performing asset at the same time.

Which wouldn't be a good thing if we had two cycles in quick succession before we had the opportunity to rebalance.

Colorful pictures:

I have recreated the period from 01.01.2018 to 01.01.2025 in ExtraETF.

Unfortunately, you can't currently share the portfolio there, which is why I've used a few screenshots here.

I chose this period because I am familiar with it and it had both negative and positive interest rates. In addition, there were a total of 3 drops of more than 10% and a bond crash.

Note during the negative interest rate phase, the portfolio held no bonds (except the inflation-indexed ones) and instead held negative interest cash.

Here you can see a

100% FTSE-All World $VWCE (-5,52%) vs

80% FTSE-All World + 20% investment reserve.

Maximum Drawdown VS FTSE-All World

Although we buy leveraged products, the maximum drawdown is lower, at least as long as it does not go lower than approx. 35%.

The meme for Sunday (even if it's not Sunday):

I have created an 80% FTSE All-World + 20% Reserve portfolio starting 01.01.2025 and will continue to maintain this, so everyone can see the real performance of this module. And of course I will update you when we are down 10%.

What do you think of the pyramized investment reserve and the Do-It-Yourself-Leveraged-Getto-ACWI?

Dear Community,

I have a 300k securities account with 50% shares, divided between $AAPL (-6,8%)
$ALV (-8,43%)
$AMZN (-3,47%)
$NOVO B (-6,66%) and some $VOW (-3,61%) the other 50% in ETFs, split between $CSPX (-5,42%)
$EXUS (-5,25%)
$NADQ (-5,56%) and something $DE000LS9U6W1 (-11,27%) ...

A strong US (tech) focus is desirable. Not because I believe that the USA does a lot of things right, but shareholder & shareholder value primarily have an influence on entrepreneurship in the USA, ok and the Mag7++ have a top position in other ETFs anyway.

I use the MSCI EX USA to shift the focus away from/to the USA as required.

I have built up this status quo over the last 2 years, after having a lot of individual stocks in the years before and following the "greed eats brains" strategy with some losses (see other post).

Now I would like to read your opinion or collect a few points of view, knowing that there is not THE right one. In the near future I will receive an inheritance of around 400,000 euros. Now I am torn. No, I don't really know what to do. My reflex was "keep going and split up if you're happy with the above strategy/allocation", but perhaps more asset classes could be included with this sum .... and/or more focus on crypto, or more diversification or or or or .... Or everything on GTAA , @Epi :-D hehe - What do you think?

PS: I am 58, IT manager, EFH paid for, 2 children, studies feddich. Controlled build-up with withdrawal plan start in about 5 years. Shift from 50% individual stocks to 75% ETF planned in 2025.

What is your opinion on the $EXUS (-5,25%) with a $VWCE (-5,52%) mixed?

Dear community,

I have been a member of getquin for almost 2 months now and I am thrilled with how lively the discussions and contributions are. Thanks to everyone who takes the time to research certain topics and share their knowledge.

I would like to take the opportunity to briefly introduce my portfolio and share my thoughts for 2025.

I have been managing my own investments for 10 years now. I started with ETFs and got into cryptos in 2017 (and got out again after the FTX bankruptcy and the Terra Luna crash). And for a few years now I've also been trading shares and now also real assets (I'm currently testing Timeless). Over the years, I have been able to expand my portfolio.

Due to my family responsibilities, my monthly fixed savings rate is currently €500. I also park monthly surpluses in my call money account and invest them when I see an opportunity. I need a certain amount of cash as we are still renovating and therefore simply need some cash...

My goal is to have at least €500,000 in 10 years so that I can pay off the existing loans on our house. So I would need to generate an annual return of 15%...

Over time, I've built up quite a mix of shares. My credo so far has been not to invest more than €1000 per share (although there have been exceptions) and a stop-loss at 20% below the purchase price. I haven't decided when the best time to sell is and I still don't know which strategy is best for me. I would therefore describe myself more as a hodler...

Now to my plans for 2025.

- I will change the fixed value per share of €1000 and increase it to €5000.

- The stop loss remains in place.

- Keep savings rates at €500 for the time being.

- Reduce the number of shares

- Focus on growth

What could a savings plan look like that I would continue for the next few years?

One point that bothers me is the high proportion of US equities in the global ETFs (cluster risk) - even though this is where most returns have been made historically...

Hence my consideration:

- Save in an ETF with a lower or no USA share (I currently have the following in my portfolio $GERD (-4,63%) where the USA share is only 50% - unfortunately quite expensive with TER 0.5%; or a new start with a $EXUS (-5,25%) ) (share: 40%)

- Saving $MEUD (-5,66%) (20 %), $FLXI (-2,8%) (20%), $WSML (-4,27%) (20%)

- S&P500 or MSCI USA via the 2xSPYTIPS of @Epi (via single payments)

- In addition $BTC (+2,83%) Savings plan of 40€ / week from existing USDC holdings (LTC sales from December) Note: Crypto portfolio cannot be fully mapped in Getquin as the EARN Binance Wallet is not displayed.

What do you think? Does that make sense?

As a next step, am I considering divesting from stocks?

From $OBDC (-6,78%) I would probably divest myself, possibly also $CSCO (-3,89%) . Can you think of any other shares or ETFs that would make sense to sell due to low growth prospects? I would then invest the free money in 3xGtaaa and shares like $ASML (-2,09%) , $NVDA (-7,25%) ...

Overall, I'm still not sure whether my strategy is quite right. Do you have any ideas, suggestions or comments? I would be grateful for any advice.

Thank you and best regards

I have been investing since 2023 and have sporadic savings plans from $IWDA, $AVGO and in a $VUAG. I reorganized my portfolio at the beginning of 2024 and unfortunately made the mistake of having savings plans in three actually identical ETFs (MSCI World, S&P 500 and a FTSE All-World). I sold the Vanguard FTSE All-World in December 2024 with a 10 percent profit and invested the money in a FTSE All-World High Dividend.

Over the course of 2024, I added several individual stocks such as Rheinmetall, DHL Group, Allianz, TUI, etc.

I also tried my hand at trading derivatives, but that went wrong and I want to say goodbye to the derivatives in my portfolio in the near future. I would like to sell several individual stocks, such as Geely Auto and TUI.

The following savings plans are currently running:

150 € $IWDA (-5,63%)

30€ $VHYL (-4,8%)

30€ $HEMC (-4,89%)

30€ $EXUS (-5,25%)

25€ Alphabet (A)

10€ Allianz, Broadcom, Siemens Energy, MasterCard, McDonalds, Altria, Realty Income, PepsiCo, NovoNordisk,

15€ Bitcoin

I am aware that I have very little experience and have made a lot of mistakes and am certainly not pursuing an optimal strategy at the moment. How do you rate my portfolio and do you have any suggestions for improvement?

Overall, it can be said that managed funds underperform index ETFs after fees over longer periods, although there are always exceptions. One of these exceptions is the $DE0008491051 (-12,08%) UniGlobal. The secret behind it? The fund works with a slight leverage, which results in outperformance. However, the fund's allocation is almost the same as the MSCI World, which is why you should ask yourself whether you can replicate the UniGlobal with lower fees.

That's exactly what I thought and built the following with the help of 3 ETFs:

• 25% $CL2 (-9,18%) (2x MSCI USA)
• 36,5% $SC0H (-5,54%) (MSCI USA)
• 38,5% $EXUS (-5,25%) (MSCI ex USA)

This allocation allows you to invest in the MSCI World with a leverage of 1.25x, with a weighted TER of approx. 0.18%. An emerging markets ETF could also be used to replicate the MSCI ACWI.

I have been using the strategy for a few months now for my ETF share, and the performance is also almost 1.25x the MSCI World performance. However, the disadvantages of the strategy are that you have to rebalance more often, as the MSCI USA share quickly becomes too large/too small due to the leverage, and the desired ratio cannot usually be achieved by new investments alone.

Overall, however, I am satisfied and now handle it in such a way that I leave the leverage between 1.2 and 1.4 and only intervene by selling when these limits are exceeded/fallen short of and otherwise only strengthen the underweighted region through savings plans. In general, however, I would like to see an ETF provider decide to launch a 1.25% MSCI World as a separate ETF product so that I can save myself the trouble of rebalancing.

Hi, I have a question about my ETFs. In order to wait for the election in the USA and see what happens there, I have invested some of my money in the $EXUS (-5,25%) invested. At the same time, I also have the $EIMI (-4,57%) and the $SPPW (-5,33%) .

This has given me sufficient diversification. But ! The $EIMI (-4,57%) is bobbing around at around 2-3 %, whereas the ETF World is logically at around 13 %. With the $EXUS (-5,25%) you have to wait and see. I am aware that the emerging market is currently on hold and that the countries all have their problems.

Would you reallocate or wait and see, because time is money !!!

Thank you and have a nice Christmas.......