The mid-week session is defined by an aggressive shift from overextended Tech into Financials and Aerospace.

🌍 THE MACRO SHOCK: TRUMP’S VENEZUELA BLOCKADE

The biggest geopolitical mover today is the U.S. naval blockade of sanctioned oil tankers into Venezuela.

The Impact: Crude prices spiked >1% instantly. This is providing a massive tailwind for energy and commodity-linked sectors.

The Shift: This "geopolitical premium" is forcing capital into hard assets. Silver just hit a record high above $66, with Gold following. 🛢️🔥🥈

🇪🇺 EUROPE: INFLATION COLLAPSE & CENTRAL BANK FEVER

EU indices are ripping because UK CPI fell sharper than expected this morning (3.2% vs 3.4% exp).

The Reaction: A shockwave through the bond market. Traders are now pricing in a near-certain Bank of England (BoE) rate cut tomorrow.

The "Trifecta": We are in a "relief rally" ahead of tomorrow’s massive data dump: ECB, BoE, and U.S. CPI. Markets are front-running a Dovish pivot from Lagarde. 🏦📉

🏦 THE ITALIAN BANKING RALLY

$$BPE (-0.02%) (+2.1%) | $ISP (-1.29%) (+1.8%) | $UCG (-0.66%) (+1.7%)

The Driver: Resilience in Net Interest Margins (NIM) as the ECB easing cycle appears slower than feared.

The Catalyst: Massive shareholder distribution. $UCG (-0.66%) and $ISP (-1.29%) are acting as "cash machines," using buybacks to floor the price against any macro noise.

⚙️ AEROSPACE & DEFENSE MOMENTUM

$$RR. (+0.6%) (+1.75%) | $LDO (-0.22%) (+1.4%) | $RKLB (+0.39%) (+1.3%)

The Driver: Rolls-Royce ($RR.L) just initiated a new £200M interim buyback starting Jan 2, immediately following their £1B 2025 program.

Context: Institutional accumulation in Defense is at peak levels as a structural hedge against 2026 geopolitical uncertainty.

📦 RETAIL & CLOUD RESILIENCE

$AMZN (+1.13%) (+1.19%)

The Driver: Wall Street is digesting the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls (64k added, but unemployment at 2021 highs).

The Sentiment: "Bad news is good news." A weakening labor market gives the Fed more ammo to cut. $AMZN (+1.13%) is catching the bid as BMO Capital hikes PT to $304, citing AWS cloud acceleration. 📊💼

⚠️ SECTOR ROTATION: THE "AI BUBBLE" PAUSE

$NVDA (+2.51%) (-0.25%) | $BTC (-0.17%) (~$86.7k) | $TRX (+0.15%) (-0.4%)

The Analysis: Pure profit-taking. Capital is bleeding out of high-beta Tech and Crypto to fund the rally in "Value" equities (Banks/Industrials).

The Risk: If $NVDA (+2.51%) loses its 20-day EMA at the US open, expect a broader drag on the Nasdaq. 🏛️➡️💻

After having invested before in $1COV (+0.2%) with the aim to be acquired by Adnoc/XRG and another investment in $ILTY Illimity Bank in Italy giving access to $IF (-0.55%) Banca IFIS with a 10% discount.

I'm now thinking to invest in further banking consolidation. Since there seems to be a wave of banking consolidations coming up both cross boarder and within individual European countries.

Italy shows:

$UCG (-0.66%) Unicredit stakebuilding in both $ALPHA (+0.29%) Alphabank & $CBK (+0.14%) Commerzbank and a failled attempt to acquire $BAMI (+0.16%) Banco BPM. We saw $BMPS (+0.38%) Monte dei Pachi acquire $MB (-0.23%) Mediobanca. $BPE (-0.02%) Bper Banca merge with $BPSO (-0.09%) and rumored to be on the wishlist of Unicredit.

Denmark is consolidating but could be still more ongoing:

A recent merger of $SYDB (+0.5%) Sydbank, Arbejdernes Landsbank & $VJBA Vestjysk Bank.

In Spain

We've seen a major but failed attempt to forget about the Spanish attempt of $BBVA (-1%) Banco Bilbao of $SAB (+0.33%) Banco Sabadell.

The Netherlands:

$ING (+0%) ING taking a substantial stake in $VLK (-0.66%) Van Lanschot Kempen.

$ABN (-0.34%) Doing several take overs in Germany and buying the trading app Bux and rumored to be bought themselves.

When thinking this through I see a potential for take over but, if it won't happen there is still good dividends to be earned. Therefore there is less of a need of a quick turn around.

I'm now looking for a "smaller" bank that traded and a likely take over candidate.

Where would you invest?

$BPE (-0.02%) - Bper Banca - Italy

$BAMI (+0.16%) - Banca BPM - Italy

$ABN (-0.34%) - ABN Amro Bank - Netherlands

$ALPHA (+0.29%) - Alpha Bank - Greece

$JYSK (+0.7%) - Jyske Bank - Denmark

$ALR (-0.81%) - Ailor Bank - Poland

Any other alternatives, or opinions about this idea, I'm happy to read!

Hey everyone!

As I hinted, I've officially kicked off my portfolio recalibration strategy for 2026. It's not just about "adjusting" percentages; it's about positioning for the next economic cycle.

Today's move was twofold: I've increased the capital invested in both the Italian banking sector with $UCG (-0.66%) and in the yellow metal with $GLD (+0.78%) (the Gold ETF).

🎯 The Logic Behind the Increase

1. Geopolitical Risk & Rate Expectations (Gold - $GLD (+0.78%) )

I've boosted my Gold position for two key, reinforcing reasons:

Defensive Hedge: Gold's current strong rally confirms its role as a safe-haven asset amidst global geopolitical uncertainty. Despite recent turbulence in $BTC (-0.17%) , Gold continues to consolidate its strength.

Fed Softening: Growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by weaker US economic data, lead to a weaker dollar. This, in turn, makes Gold more attractive to international investors. Gold is enjoying its best performance since 1979, with analysts projecting prices up to $5,000 an ounce by 2026.

2. European Banking Sector ($UCG (-0.66%) ): Margins & Dividends

The increase in UniCredit ($UCG (-0.66%) ) is based on a thesis of value, resilience, and direct profitability:

Stable EU Rates: While the Fed is considering cuts, expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) are that it will maintain stable rates for longer than its US counterpart. Sustained high or stable rates are a direct advantage for the interest margins of European banks.

Dividends & Buybacks: Increasing capital in UniCredit is also part of my strategy to boost the overall dividend flow of my portfolio. The bank has shown a strong commitment to shareholder remuneration through growing dividends and consistent buyback programs, thereby strengthening the passive income component of the portfolio.

Solid Fundamentals: UniCredit has demonstrated resilience and strong capital generation. Within the European context, the banking sector is viewed as a value area that continues to benefit from the operating margins offered by the current rate cycle. My strategy is to capture this value before the ECB begins a more aggressive easing cycle.

📈 Immediate Portfolio Impact

A quick update on fresh numbers: the portfolio ended November slightly down, marking -0.39%. The great news is that, in these first few days of December, the strategy has already paid off: we're already at +0.73% this month! This means we’ve fully recovered the dip from late last month and are already firmly in positive territory to finish the year strong.

What are your thoughts on these two moves? Are you exposed to Gold or European banks?

*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Invest with caution.*

$GLD (+0.78%)
$UCG (-0.66%)
$BTC (-0.17%)
$BBVA (-1%)
$BPE (-0.02%)
$AAPL (-0.98%)
$NVDA (+2.51%)
$ASTS (-0.68%)
$HIMS (-0.64%)

November 12, 2025: The Market is Ready to Run.

The pre-market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, driven by the powerful macro catalyst of the impending end of the longest US government shutdown. This political breakthrough, combined with signs of a slowing labor market that fuels Fed rate cut bets (67% chance in December), has unlocked broad optimism.

Our portfolio is seizing this momentum, already locking in a +0.7% gain this morning!

📈 Alpha Generation: Our Strategy Delivers

Our disciplined strategy is generating significant alpha, continuing to outperform major benchmarks over the past two months:

Portfolio Performance: Our portfolio has climbed +7.7% in the last two months.

Benchmark Performance: This compares favorably against the S&P 500's +5.63% and the Dow Jones' +3.98% in the same period.

🇪🇺 Key Drivers: Europe Leads the Charge

Today's +0.7% gain is strategically targeted, proving our positioning is correct, particularly in Europe:

1. European Financials (The Value Trade): The Eurozone rally is strong, with European indices opening positively (Frankfurt +0.59%, Paris +0.40%, Milan +0.48% at $44,652 points). This is supported by the slight easing of German inflation to $2.3% in October. Our holdings are surging:

$BPE (-0.02%)

$ISP (-1.29%)

$UCG (-0.66%)

$BBVA (-1%)

2. Growth Outlook (RKLB): While $RKLB is still in the red in the portfolio, we remain highly confident in its ability to return to profit soon. We are focusing on fundamental strength and long-term trends in the aerospace sector.

3. Defensive Core: Our safe-haven assets are holding steady; Gold ($GLD$) is showing slight positivity this morning, consolidating recent gains as the market anticipates the release of key US economic data.

🧠 Deep Dive: Why the Market is Running Today

The market is moving because key sources of uncertainty are clearing and liquidity expectations are rising:

Political Gridlock Ends: The House is set to vote today, November 12th, on a compromise bill that will restore funding to government agencies and end the US shutdown. This passage is crucial, as it will unblock critical economic data like CPI and employment, which have been long-awaited.

Rate Cuts Are Back on the Table: The latest weak ADP job data reinforces bets on Federal Reserve easing. Fed Funds futures are now pricing a 67% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December. This renewed dovish sentiment is the primary fuel for equity markets, despite minor tech sector consolidation.

Contrasting Macro: The market is managing to rally despite the Treasury placing €8.5 Billion in 12-month BOTs and continued caution regarding the final signature on the funding bill.

Actionable Insight: We are positioned to benefit from the return of liquidity and the dovish pivot while capitalizing on targeted value trades in Europe. The momentum is here.

Ready to outperform the market? Copy my strategy now.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not an indication of future results. The content above is for information and educational purposes only. Investing involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your money.

The market opened today in a state of strategic divergence. While past market history (such as the Nov 2024 post-election rally) suggests broad euphoria, today's action contradicts a simple "Risk-On" narrative, heavily rewarding caution and discipline instead.

I. Political Euphoria Ignored: The Core Signal is Defense

Political optimism, fueled by progress on the US Shutdown Bill and speculation about increased deregulation and dealmaking, is *not* translating into a generalized rally. The market is clearly choosing shelter:

Gold ($GLD) Surging: The massive rush into Gold is proof that investors are prioritizing long-term strategic defense over potential short-term political gains. Unlike euphoric contexts where Bitcoin soared, capital is oriented towards structural safety.

Tech Under Cautious Pressure: In a truly euphoric environment, Mega-Cap Tech names should be soaring. Today, however, $NVDA (+2.51%) and $MSFT (-0.43%) are slightly down. This confirms that valuation caution prevails over pure political sentiment.

II. Sector Rotation: Quality and Value

Today's strength is highly selective and rewards tangible value, contrasting with the political optimism:

European Financials Leading: European banks continue to show exceptional strength, signaling that funds are actively seeking robust value sectors. $CE (-0.13%) and $BPE (-0.02%) are sharply up, leading the Italian banking sector rally. This movement reflects a preference for Value and consistent returns amid rate uncertainty.

Macro Context: This strong rotation happens even as market reports flag renewed US Fiscal concerns and lingering thin liquidity, reinforcing the defensive positioning in our portfolio.

III. Conclusion: Strategic Defense is Our Edge

Today's market action serves as a crucial lesson in strategic discipline.

We are not chasing political upside; we are capitalizing on the market's need for safety (Gold) and value (Banks). Our strategy of maintaining a strong allocation in defensive assets is what allows us to generate significant alpha precisely when general market sentiment is mixed and high-growth sectors are struggling.

Stay disciplined. Trust the process.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: Past performance is not an indication of future results. The content above is for information and educational purposes only. Investing involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your money.*

Today's market is showing a mixed but generally positive tone across key sectors. While some tech giants are lagging, traditional finance, certain industrials, and defensive plays are showing strength, indicating a selective "risk-on" sentiment.

🇺🇸 US Equities (Pre-market/Early Trading)

$SPX500 — Trading solidly higher, driven by positive sentiment in various sectors, though tech is mixed.

$DJ30 — Moving up, reflecting broad positive sentiment.

$NSDQ100 — Showing mixed performance, with some mega-cap tech names under pressure.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

A mixed picture in tech, with strong gains but also significant losses:

$NVDA (+2.51%) — Trading slightly lower, indicating some profit-taking in the semiconductor space.

$GOOGL (+1.6%) — Up strongly, showing robust performance in the mega-cap tech space.

$MSFT (-0.43%) — Down significantly, acting as a drag on the overall tech sector.

$TSM (+1%) — Up slightly, showing resilience in the chip sector.

$AVGO (+1.89%) — Up strongly, participating in the semiconductor rally.

$RGTI (-6.56%) — Up sharply, outperforming as some speculative growth names find renewed interest.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

A strong day for retail and e-commerce, recovering from previous sessions:

$AMZN (+1.13%) — Up, participating in the mega-cap rally.

$BABA (-0.16%) — Up strongly, showing a significant rebound in the Chinese retail sector.

$SHOP (-0.53%) — Up, showing positive momentum.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

A positive session for the health sector:

$INSM (+0.33%) — Up, showing strength in biotech.

$HIMS (-0.64%) — Up, indicating positive sentiment in health services.

🇪🇺 Europe & Industrials

European markets are generally positive, with strong performances in finance and defense:

STOXX 600 — Trading higher, led by a strong rally in the banking sector.

GER40 — Trading higher, reflecting the positive sentiment.

$LDO (-0.22%) — Up strongly, the defense sector is showing significant strength.

$IBE (+1.31%) — Trading slightly lower, utilities lag as investors move towards growth.

🏦 Banking & Finance

A very strong day for European financials, leading the overall market higher:

$BBVA (-1%) — Up strongly, the Spanish bank is showing significant gains.

$UCG (-0.66%) — Advancing higher, part of the strong European banking rally.

$ISP (-1.29%) — Up strongly, showing clear outperformance.

$BPE (-0.02%) — Surging higher, continuing its rally and leading the Italian banks.

$CE (-0.13%) — Trading slightly lower, bucking the trend of other Italian banks.

$AXP (+0.46%) / $V (+0.54%) — Trading higher, the payments sector is positive.

🌏 Asia

Asian markets are expected to close mixed to positive, heavily impacted by the strong rebound in major Chinese names like $BABA.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (+0.78%) — Up strongly. Gold is showing significant strength today, reflecting renewed safe-haven demand or inflation concerns despite the broader mixed-to-positive equity market. I have strong, unwavering confidence in Gold as a core protective and strategic asset for the long term.

$CDE (+0.75%) — Up strongly, mirroring gold's positive direction.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (-0.17%) / $ETH (-0.9%) / $TRX (+0.15%) — Likely moving lower, following the general risk-on mood.

🔎 Deep Dive: Sector Rotation and Resilience

Today's market highlights a clear sector rotation. Investors are re-engaging with European financials and select tech names, while taking profits in others. The strong rebound in $BABA suggests a renewed, albeit cautious, appetite for growth. The strength in Gold ($GLD) alongside some equity gains is particularly noteworthy, indicating a complex sentiment where both risk-taking and wealth preservation are at play.

Follow the Analysis:

For daily real-time market insights, deep dives, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.eToro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

The week opens with a decisive risk-off move. Selling pressure is widespread, hitting Technology and European Equities hard, as investors reduce exposure across major sectors.

🇺🇸 US Equities (Pre-market/Early Trading)

$SPX500 — Trading sharply lower, dragged down by losses in Tech and general risk aversion.

$DJ30 — Moving down, tracking the overall negative market sentiment.

$NSDQ100 — Leading the losses, as major tech components face significant selling pressure.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

The entire sector is under pressure, reversing yesterday's gains:

$NVDA (+2.51%) — Facing selling pressure in the semiconductor space.

$GOOGL (+1.6%) — Down sharply, reflecting the market's flight from growth.

$MSFT (-0.43%) — Down, tracking the negative tech trend.

$TSM (+1%) — Down, showing weakness in the chip sector.

$RKLB (+0.39%) — Speculative growth continues to underperform in this environment.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

One of the hardest-hit sectors, indicating pessimism on consumer health:

$AMZN (+1.13%) — Down significantly, hit by the broad tech sell-off.

$BABA (-0.16%) — The biggest loser on the heatmap, selling off sharply amid continued China macro concerns.

$SHOP (-0.53%) — Following the sharp negative sentiment from the e-commerce space.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

A sector showing minor relative strength, as investors seek defensive names:

$LLY (-0.65%) / $HIMS (-0.64%) / $INSM (+0.33%) — Likely flat or slightly down, holding up better than cyclical sectors as investors pause the rotation out of defensive pharma/biotech.

🇪🇺 Europe & Industrials

All European indices are in the red, led by Finance and Industrials:

STOXX 600 — Trading lower, with selling pressure visible in banks and autos.

GER40 — Trading lower, reflecting widespread European weakness.

Italian Indices(FTSE MIB) — Trading down approx -1.02%.

🏦 Banking & Finance

Under general pressure, reflecting global economic caution:

$UCG (-0.66%) / $CS (-0.97%) / $BPE (-0.02%) — European banks are down, but losses are relatively contained compared to Tech.

$BBVA (-1%) — Flat, showing relative stability against the negative trend.

$AXP (+0.46%) / $V (+0.54%) — Likely trading lower, following the broader financial and cyclical trend.

🌏 Asia

Asian markets are expected to close mixed to negative, heavily impacted by the continued sharp sell-off in major Chinese names like $BABA.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (+0.78%) — Holding steady and flat.The Oro is stable near the $4,000 mark. The fact that Gold is NOT selling off alongside equities suggests this is a stock market correction/profit-taking eventrather than a systemic risk flight.

$BRENT / $WTI — Trading slightly lower, reflecting reduced expectations for global demand.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (-0.17%) / $ETH (-0.9%) / $TRX (+0.15%) — Likely moving lower, following the Nasdaq and the overall risk-off mood.

🔎 Deep Dive: The "Systemic Risk" Pause

Today is a classic "Risk-Off"day driven by profit-taking and macro uncertainty. The market is broadly selling, but the stability of Gold ($GLD)is the key takeaway. In true systemic fear, Gold skyrockets. Its flatness suggests this is a healthy, albeit painful, correction in the equity space, not a collapse. The capital is not fleeing the system, it's just rotating to the sidelines.

Despite this volatility, my view remains unchanged: I have strong, unwavering confidence in Gold as a core protective and strategic asset for the long term.

Follow the Analysis:

For daily real-time market insights, deep dives, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.eToro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer:Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

The week kicks off with a strong, but highly selective, risk-on rally. Markets are piling into quality Tech and European Financials, while simultaneously selling off Chinese retail and speculative growth names.

🇺🇸 US Equities (Pre-market/Early Trading)

$SPX500 — Trading solidly higher, driven by strong performance in Tech and Financials.

$DJ30 — Moving up, following the broad positive sentiment.

$NSDQ100 — Leading the gains, as major tech components are firmly in the green.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+2.51%) — Advancing higher, leading the AI and semiconductor space.

$GOOGL (+1.6%) — Moving up, showing solid strength in the mega-cap tech space.

$AVGO (+1.89%) — Up moderately, participating in the semiconductor rally.

$META (+0.28%) — Showing strong gains, continuing its upward momentum.

$MSFT (-0.43%) — Up slightly, tracking the positive tech trend.

$TSM (+1%) — Up slightly, showing resilience in the chip sector.

$RR. (+0.6%) — Up moderately, the industrial/aerospace stock shows strength.

$RKLB (+0.39%) — Down slightly, underperforming as speculative growth faces pressure.

$RGTI (-6.56%) — Down sharply, quantum stocks are experiencing significant selling.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (+1.13%) — Up moderately, participating in the mega-cap rally.

$BABA (-0.16%) — Falling sharply, the main source of weakness in the market today, dragging down the retail sector.

$CVNA (+0.37%) — Up moderately, recovering some ground.

$SHOP (-0.53%) — Down moderately, likely pulled down by the negative sentiment from $BABA$.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

$LLY (-0.65%) — Likely flat or slightly down, as investors rotate out of defensive pharma names.

$HIMS (-0.64%) — Holding steady, showing no significant price change.

$INSM (+0.33%) — Flat, the biotech sector remains cautious.

🇪🇺 Europe & Industrials

STOXX 600 — Trading higher, led by a strong rally in the banking sector.

GER40 — Trading cautiously higher, reflecting the positive sentiment.

$LDO (-0.22%) — Up strongly, the defense sector is showing significant strength.

$IBE (+1.31%) — Down slightly, utilities lag as investors move away from defensive assets.

$OKLO — Holding steady, the nuclear tech stock is flat.

$CS (-0.97%) — Up moderately, joining the rally in European financials.

🏦 Banking & Finance

$UCG (-0.66%) — Advancing higher, part of the strong European banking rally.

$ISP (-1.29%) — Up strongly, showing clear outperformance.

$BPE (-0.02%) — Surging higher, continuing its massive rally and leading the Italian banks.

$CE (-0.13%) — Up strongly, another standout performer in the Italian banking sector.

$BBVA (-1%) — Up strongly, the Spanish bank is showing significant gains.

$AXP (+0.46%) — Up moderately, the payments sector is positive.

$V (+0.54%) — Down slightly, counter-trending the financial sector's strength.

🌏 Asia

$JPN225 / $KOSPI / $HK50 / $CHINA50$ — Likely closed mixed to negative, heavily impacted by the sharp sell-off in $BABA$.

_p_ Forex

$DXY — The Dollar Index is trading loweras risk appetite favors other currencies.

$EURUSD — Moving higheragainst a weaker Dollar.

$USDJPY — Drifting loweras the Yen gains some ground.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (+0.78%) — Holding steady, gold is flat as investors move into equities rather than safe havens.

$CDE (+0.75%) — Flat, mirroring gold's lack of direction.

$BRENT / $WTI — Likely trading higheron risk-onsentiment and a weaker Dollar.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (-0.17%) / $ETH (-0.9%) — Likely moving higher, following the Nasdaq and the risk-onmood.

$TRX (+0.15%) — Down slightly, underperforming the broader crypto sentiment.

$CRO (-0.77%) — Not shown, likely tracking the positive risk-ontrend.

📈 Benchmark ETFs

$VOO (+0.12%) / $VGT (+0.2%) / $CNDX — Holding steady (from image), but the underlying components signal they are trading higher.

$BND (-0.3%) — Flat, as bond yields likely rise (prices fall) in a risk-onmove.

🔎 Deep Dive: The "Quality Growth" Rally

Today is a "flight to quality growth." The market is not buying everything; it is highly selective. There is clear strength in established Tech ($NVDA, $GOOGL) and a massive rally in European Banks ($BPE.MI, $BBVA.MC). However, there is clear weakness in Chinese Retail ($BABA, $SHOP) and speculative Tech ($RGTI, $RKLB). This divergence signals that investors are willing to take risks, but only on assets with strong fundamentals or clear momentum, while dumping assets exposed to Chinese macro or high speculation.

Follow the Analysis:

For daily real-time market insights, deep dives, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.eToro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer:Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

It's the last day of the month, and the market is exploding higher, in a strong risk-onmove driven by a series of stellar earnings in the Tech sector. The day is dominated by impressive rallies, although key divergences remain.

🇺🇸 US Equities (Pre-market/Open)

$SPX500 — Futures are moving decidedly higher, driven by the Mega-Cap rally.

$DJ30 — Up, as positive sentiment spreads.

$NSDQ100 — In a strong rally, the index is being pulled higher by $AMZN$ and $GOOGL$.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+2.51%) — In a solid rise, the stock is outperforming and leading the AI sector.

$GOOGL (+1.6%) — Rallying strongly, the market reacts with euphoria to its earnings, pushing the stock higher.

$AVGO (+1.89%) — Slightly down, counter-trending the sector, showing weakness.

$META (+0.28%) — Up, the stock is recovering lost ground and joining the positive sentiment.

$MSFT (-0.43%) — Slightly up, attempting a modest recovery along with the Nasdaq rally.

$TSM (+1%) — Slightly up, showing resilience in the chip sector.

$RR. (+0.6%) — Slightly down, the industrial/aerospace sector is weak.

$RKLB (+0.39%) — Slightly up, showing cautious optimism in the new techspace.

$RGTI (-6.56%) — Up, the quantum sector follows the speculative sentiment.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (+1.13%) — Exploding higher, the stock is dominating the market with an impressive rally, clearly following earnings that beat all expectations.

$BABA (-0.16%) — Falling sharply, continuing its negative performance, crashing against the US tech trend.

$CVNA (+0.37%) — Up, the stock is participating in the risk-onmove and recovering ground.

$SHOP (-0.53%) — Stable, failing to benefit from the $AMZN rally.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

$LLY (-0.65%) — Slightly down, the defensive Pharma sector is being sold as capital rotates into Tech.

$HIMS (-0.64%) — Stable, awaiting catalysts.

$INSM (+0.33%) — Stable, the biotech sector is flat.

🇪🇺 Europe & Industrials

STOXX 600 — Mixed, Europe is not fully participating in the US rally.

GER40 — Mixed/Slightly down, reflecting uncertainty.

$LDO (-0.22%) — Slightly up, the defense sector shows some strength.

$IBE (+1.31%) — Slightly up, utilities are stable/positive.

$OKLO — Stable, the nuclear stock is flat.

$CS (-0.97%) — Down, the European financial sector is weak.

🏦 Banking & Finance

$UCG (-0.66%) — Slightly up, the Italian banking sector is mixed.

$ISP (-1.29%) — Slightly up, showing modest strength.

$BPE (-0.02%) — Solidly up, continuing its outperformance and positive trend.

$CE (-0.13%) Up, another strong performer in Italian banking.

$BBVA (-1%) — Up, the Spanish bank is recovering ground.

$AXP (+0.46%) — Slightly down, the payments sector is weak.

$V (+0.54%) — Down, following the weakness in $AXP$.

🌏 Asia

$JPN225 / $KOSPI / $HK50 / $CHINA50 — Closed mixed/negative, weighed down by weakness in Chinese stocks ($BABA$).

💱 Forex

$DXY — The Dollar Index is stable/slightly down, reflecting the conflicting sentiment.

$EURUSD — Stable/Slightly upagainst a weaker Dollar.

$USDJPY — Stable.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (+0.78%) — Stable, gold is flat, not benefiting from the defensive sell-off or the tech risk-on.

$CDE (+0.75%) — Stable, following gold.

$BRENT / $WTI — Down, oil is dropping due to demand fears (e.g., $BABA data).

💰 Crypto

$BTC (-0.17%) / $ETH (-0.9%) — Up, crypto is following the risk-onrally led by $AMZN and $GOOGL.

$TRX (+0.15%) — Up, the altcoin sector is participating in the positive sentiment.

$CRO (-0.77%) — Up, in line with the sector.

📈 Benchmark ETFs

$VOO (+0.12%) / $VGT (+0.2%) / $CNDX — The real sentiment is being pulled higher by their main components.

$BND (-0.3%) — Stable, investors are also looking for safety in bonds.

🔎 Deep Dive: The Great Earnings Divergence

Today is the definition of a "stock market," not a "market of stocks." There is no single sentiment. Quarterly results are creating massive divergences:

1. The Winners: $AMZN (+1.13%) and $GOOGL (+1.6%) are on fire, saving the $NSDQ100 single-handedly.

2. The Losers: $BABA (-0.16%) is collapsing, signaling weakness in Chinese and speculative retail.

3. The Isolated Strong:Italian banks ($BPE (-0.02%) , $CE (-0.13%) ) and $BBVA (-1%) continue to outperform.

4. The Defensives:Gold ($GLD (+0.78%) ) is flat, while Pharma ($LLY (-0.65%) ) and European financials ($CS (-0.97%)

) are weak.

Follow the Analysis:

For daily real-time market insights, deep dives, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.eToro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer:Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

🇺🇸 US Equities (Pre-market/Early Trading)

$SPX500 — Indicating a sharp decline, as the collapse in major tech components weighs heavily on the index.

$DJ30 — Trading significantly lower, pulled down by the broad *risk-offsentiment.

$NSDQ100 — Falling sharply, dragged down by heavy losses in major tech names.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+2.51%) — Down slightly, showing significant resilience and holding up well compared to the broader tech wreck.

$GOOGL (+1.6%) — Surging dramatically higher, completely defying the market sell-off, likely on a stellar earnings report.

$AVGO (+1.89%) — Up moderately, showing strong relative strength in the semiconductor sector.$META (+0.28%) — Collapsing, in a sharp sell-off likely due to a major earnings miss.

$MSFT (-0.43%) — Falling sharply, a massive drop indicating a very negative reaction to its earnings, pulling the $SPX500$ down.

$QBTS (-7.96%) Not shown, but likely down significantly*in this *risk-offenvironment for speculative tech.

$RGTI (-6.56%) — Down moderately, following the negative sentiment in speculative tech.

$TSM (+1%) — Down slightly, giving back some recent gains.

$RR. (+0.6%) — Down moderately, the industrial/aerospace sector is weak.

$RKLB (+0.39%) — Up slightly, showing some resilience in the space sector.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (+1.13%) — Down moderately, reflecting weakness in consumer-focused tech.

$BABA (-0.16%) — Down moderately, under pressure alongside other Chinese and e-commerce stocks.

$CVNA (+0.37%) — Falling sharply, continuing its pattern of high volatility and weakness.

$SHOP (-0.53%) — Down moderately, indicating pressure on e-commerce platforms.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

$LLY (-0.65%) — Likely flat or slightly down, as investors rotate out of defensive names or brace for the downturn.

$HIMS (-0.64%) — Holding steady, showing no significant price change.

$INSM (+0.33%) — Flat, the biotech sector remains cautious.

🇪🇺 Europe & Industrials

STOXX 600 — Trading lower, struggling as the US tech crash impacts global sentiment.

GER40 — Trading cautiously lower, reflecting the uncertain global sentiment.

$LDO (-0.22%) — Down moderately, suggesting pressure on the defense sector.

$IBE (+1.31%) — Down slightly, utilities are also facing some selling pressure.

$OKLO Down moderately, indicating profit-taking in the nuclear technology space.

$CS (-0.97%) — Down moderately, reflecting broader caution across parts of the European financial sector.

🏦 Banking & Finance

$UCG (-0.66%) — Down moderately, following the negative trend in European financials.

$ISP (-1.29%) — Down slightly, showing some weakness.

$BPE (-0.02%) — Making moderate gains, continuing its strong counter-trend rally.

$CE (-0.13%) — Up slightly, joining the isolated strength in Italian mid-cap banks.

$BBVA (-1%) — Falling sharply, showing significant weakness and vulnerability.

$AXP (+0.46%) — Down moderately, reflecting caution in the payments sector.

$V (+0.54%) — Down slightly, mirroring the hesitation seen in other payment stocks.

🌏 Asia

$JPN225 / $KOSPI / $HK50 / $CHINA50 — Likely closed mixed to negative*as the US tech crash sentiment spread.

💱 Forex

$DXY — The Dollar Index is likely trading higher*as investors flee to safety (cash).

$EURUSD — Likely edging lower*against a stronger Dollar.

$USDJPY — Likely trading higher*reflecting the strong Dollar.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (+0.78%) — Holding steady, pausing as investors prefer the $DXY$ as the primary safe haven over gold.

$CDE (+0.75%) — Flat, mirroring gold's lack of direction.

$BRENT / $WTI (W&T Offshore Inc) — Likely trading down*as growth concerns spike, tempering demand outlook.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (-0.17%) / $ETH (-0.9%) — Likely experiencing significant downward pressure, following the Nasdaq crash.

$TRX (+0.15%) — Holding steady, though the broader crypto market is likely weak.

$CRO (-0.77%) — Likely tracking the negative trend in crypto.

📈 Benchmark ETFs

$VOO (+0.12%)
$VGT (+0.2%)
$CNDX — Holding steady (0.00%) in the image, likely reflecting a pre-market halt or lag, but they are clearly heading for a sharp drop*based on their components.

$BND (-0.3%) — Flat, as bond yields likely fall (prices rise) during the flight to safety.

🔎 Deep Dive: The Great Tech Divergence

Today's story is a brutal earnings-driven divergence. The market is split in two: $MSFT (-0.43%) and $META (+0.28%) are collapsing, pulling the entire $SPX500 and risk-onsentiment down with them. Retail stocks like $BABA and $AMZN are falling in sympathy.

However, $GOOGL (+1.6%) is surging dramatically, completely disconnecting from the sector on what must be a stellar earnings report. This divergence shows the market is differentiating between AI narratives: $NVDA (+2.51%) is also holding up remarkably well (down only slightly), while other tech ($TSM (+1%) , $AVGO (+1.89%) ) is mixed.

Away from tech, Italian banks ($BPE (-0.02%)) continue their isolated rally, but the overall mood is clearly *risk-off*.

Follow the Analysis:

For daily real-time market insights, *deep dives*, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.eToro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer:*Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.