Hey everyone!
As I hinted, I've officially kicked off my portfolio recalibration strategy for 2026. It's not just about "adjusting" percentages; it's about positioning for the next economic cycle.
Today's move was twofold: I've increased the capital invested in both the Italian banking sector with $UCG (+2.38%) and in the yellow metal with $GLD (+0.74%) (the Gold ETF).
🎯 The Logic Behind the Increase
1. Geopolitical Risk & Rate Expectations (Gold - $GLD (+0.74%) )
I've boosted my Gold position for two key, reinforcing reasons:
Defensive Hedge: Gold's current strong rally confirms its role as a safe-haven asset amidst global geopolitical uncertainty. Despite recent turbulence in $BTC (+0.26%) , Gold continues to consolidate its strength.
Fed Softening: Growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by weaker US economic data, lead to a weaker dollar. This, in turn, makes Gold more attractive to international investors. Gold is enjoying its best performance since 1979, with analysts projecting prices up to $5,000 an ounce by 2026.
2. European Banking Sector ($UCG (+2.38%) ): Margins & Dividends
The increase in UniCredit ($UCG (+2.38%) ) is based on a thesis of value, resilience, and direct profitability:
Stable EU Rates: While the Fed is considering cuts, expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) are that it will maintain stable rates for longer than its US counterpart. Sustained high or stable rates are a direct advantage for the interest margins of European banks.
Dividends & Buybacks: Increasing capital in UniCredit is also part of my strategy to boost the overall dividend flow of my portfolio. The bank has shown a strong commitment to shareholder remuneration through growing dividends and consistent buyback programs, thereby strengthening the passive income component of the portfolio.
Solid Fundamentals: UniCredit has demonstrated resilience and strong capital generation. Within the European context, the banking sector is viewed as a value area that continues to benefit from the operating margins offered by the current rate cycle. My strategy is to capture this value before the ECB begins a more aggressive easing cycle.
📈 Immediate Portfolio Impact
A quick update on fresh numbers: the portfolio ended November slightly down, marking -0.39%. The great news is that, in these first few days of December, the strategy has already paid off: we're already at +0.73% this month! This means we’ve fully recovered the dip from late last month and are already firmly in positive territory to finish the year strong.
What are your thoughts on these two moves? Are you exposed to Gold or European banks?
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Invest with caution.*
$GLD (+0.74%)
$UCG (+2.38%)
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