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The Italian government wants to see $BMPS merge with $BAMI so they can further reduce their stake in Monte dei Paschi. As of now I see this bank as a great turnaround candidate but I hope they don’t buy out Banco BPM until they fully integrated $MB because otherwise this could end in a disaster once again 🙈
This I believe is a valid concern and when I investigated I also saw less of a match between Mediobanca and Banca Montei dei Paschi. And a better fit with Banco BPM.

My idea is to be on Acquired side so at point of integration, I have already cashed out.

Banco BPM is actually a good potential in my view because also in the background Credit Agricole has build up a large share. so a move of some sort seems imminent.
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@frisian You’re right about the differences between the two banks. Monte dei Paschi does classical retail business while Mediobanca operates in wealth management. Also the working culture is different which could lead to „brain drain“. However, I see the different business models as an opportunity since it diversifies the income of Monte dei Paschi and wealth management brings more stable return because they are pretty much independent from interest rates (other than retail banking).

The idea is good but I wouldn’t want to rely on an acquisition especially if i’m not convinced of the company. If the acquisition fails, you paid a high premium on the actual value because usually the buyout price is 30-50% above the current price.

In my view the chances are high that Banco BPM will be acquired by another bank. For your investment strategy it doesn’t really matter who buys the company :)