Preface:

In the following, I would like to present how my portfolio has developed over the course of 2024.

This includes

1) my strategic orientation

2)Return on the portfolio.

The main topics are:

• Moving away from individual stocks
• Entry into gold and bitcoin
• Factor investing

Finally, I will give my own thoughts on how to proceed.

The main changes to my portfolio that have led

to my current strategy are presented below using a short timeline.

timeline:

My timeline

Beginning of 2024

At the beginning of the year, I pursued a 70/30 core satellite

strategy. The 70% ETF core again consisted of STOXX Europe.

MSCI World, Emerging Markets.

The 30% consisted of stocks such as: $CSIQ (-0,32%) , $O (+0,6%) ,$TSM (+1,24%)
$ADM (+0,89%)
$UMI (-0,05%)
$D05 (-0,62%)
$BMW (-1,26%)
$UKW (+0%)
$8031 (-3,27%)
$MUV2 (-1,82%)

February

Addition of gold to my portfolio. Target size 10%. Build-up in batches.

The remaining 70/30 strategy therefore only relates to the remaining

90%.

April-June:

Entry into Bitcoin via Trade Republic in several batches

at prices between 50k and 63k.

After exchange with @Epi to the fee schedule at Trade Republic

I sold them there in order to sell Bitcoin on a dedicated crypto exchange.

exchange.

June:

Thanks to @PowerWordChill I got to grips with factor investing. A Gerd Kommer book later, and after some internet research, I decided to

decided to transform my ETF strategy into a factor ETF strategy.

July-August 2024:

Sale of my shares. Concentration on the factor portfolio.

August - September 24:

Renewed build-up of Bitcoin with the aim of making Bitcoin a

a fixed component of the portfolio. Consideration is 5%-10%

of my portfolio.

The idea. Build up an initial position, then make regular

investments of €50 per week with the aim of growing to the target size

to grow to the target size. The rapid rise in October/November led me to

led me to leave it at €50 per week. And individual purchases in

larger tranches at an early stage with a portfolio size of 2.x%.

End of December 2024:

Position size of Bitcoin almost 5%.

I am not yet including Bitcoin in my gold/ETF quota. I'm still running it on the side.

I re-evaluated my factor weighting at the end of the year

and would like to fine-tune it a little. I will briefly present the result in the

following section.

In addition, I have decided to include a small

include a small proportion of real estate stocks. However, this will probably never

part of my strategy worth mentioning and contains - as of today - only

about 3% of my portfolio and only $O (+0,6%) ).

Overall breakdown of my portfolio:

As described above, I do not yet include Bitcoin in my overall strategy

part of my overall strategy so that rebalancing remains easier. This will

change when Bitcoin reaches its target size.

The rest is made up as follows:

ETFs:

$XDEM (+0,02%) 30.3% (MSCI World Momentum)

$XDEB (+0,14%) 10.1% (MSCI World Minimum Volatility)

$XDEV (-0,15%) 10.1% (MSCI World Value)

$ZPRV (-0,23%) 15% (MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted)

$ZPRX (-0,32%) 6.5% (MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted)

$PEH (+0,13%) 4.5% (as a quality factor on emerging markets)

$5MVL (+0,18%) 4.5% (Edge MSCI EM Value)

$SPYX (-0,46%) 9% (MSCI EM Small Cap)

Gold

$EWG2 (+0,68%) 10% Gold ETC

Getquin Rewind and own data:

At the end of the post you will find my Getquin Rewind, as I was not able to embed the image in the text:

However, according to my own calculations, this cannot be correct.

My portfolio volume at the start of the year was around €103,500 with a return of €16,693. This would correspond to a total return of 19.2%. However, we are not yet talking about a time-weighted return, as my invested capital has roughly doubled over the course of the year. I therefore estimate my TTWROR to be higher.

My own thoughts and outlook:

I do not expect any major changes in strategy over the next few years. At some point, a strategy will have to be established. If necessary, I will make some adjustments to this strategy.

This includes the fact that I am dissatisfied with the costs of the emerging markets factor ETFs. So far, however, I intend to live with it. Should I

stumble across better products, I will consider switching. Especially as long as I stay within the tax allowance when switching.

I'll also have to decide how big my Bitcoin holding should ultimately be.

If you've been reading carefully, you'll notice that a lot of money has accumulated in the last year. Big profits, big investments. Due to personal circumstances, I will not maintain these rates in the same style, but will reduce them somewhat. I expect to be able to continue investing around 1.5-2k per month. This means that my financial goals are

with an expected return of 5% adjusted for inflation over many years.

I am half hoping for major setbacks in the near future and the associated favorable entries. However, in view of the impact that minor price jolts have had on society as a whole (thanks to populism), I don't really wish for them.

Do you have any suggestions, questions or comments? Is there anything that particularly interests you?

I am also happy to receive suggestions for improvement for future posts.

Best regards,

Your Smurf

PS: @DonkeyInvestor and me, that's love ❤. And now send me your coins! (So I can reward your next post appropriately).

PPS: I hope someone is interested.

Smart Beta ETF

Part 2 - Deep f***ing Value

Disclaimer: No investment advice or recommendation, this article is for information purposes only. Before you decide on an ETF, take a closer look at it in terms of positions, sampling, regions, etc. I can't describe everything here as it would go beyond the scope of this article

Part 1 (Definition, Categories & Z-Score and Quality Factor): https://getqu.in/RCSY4a/

💡 Value ETF

Focus on shares that are (undervalued) as attractive from a fundamental perspective. Valuation benchmarks here can be, for example, cash flow in relation to book value or P/E ratio, price to book value, etc. In contrast to momentum or growth ETFs, for example, they have a more fundamentally supported valuation. In theory, there should be a "value premium" for these shares, which is based on the study by Fama and French, according to which differences in returns between shares can also be explained by size and value factors in addition to the classic beta factor.

👉 Interest rate dependency

This also means that value stocks should tend to outperform growth stocks in times of sharp interest rate increases (or the expectation of such increases).

This can also be seen in a direct comparison of $IWVL, $WSML, $IS3R. In the period 2022-2023, the $IWVL outperformed the other two by 13% and 16% respectively. However, it can also be seen that in anticipation of an interest rate cut, Growth & Momentum strongly outperform the Value ETF (Fig. 1).

👉 Correlation/beta

The correlation of value ETFs to their "parent indices", i.e. World Value to Value, for example, is around 0.9. This means that, in simplified terms, the value ETF is only 90% as volatile as its parent index, i.e. it is less volatile. Weak market phases can therefore be easily mitigated

👉ETFs:

👉Z-Score MSCI Value ETF

There are 4 larger ETFs that are the same in terms of methodology but focus on different regions (TD = tracking difference):

• $IWVL (-0,07%) (World | TER 0.30 % | TD -0.02 % | 3.5 bn Investv. | 3Y Underperf. vs. World - 2,1 %.)
• $IUVF (+0,24%) (USA | TER 0.20 % | TD -0.24 % | 1.7 bn | 3Y Underperf. vs. S&P 500 - 19,5 %.)
• $XDEV (-0,15%) (World | TER 0.25 % | TD -0.09 % | 1.7 bn | 3Y Underperf. vs. world - 1,7 %.)
• $IEFV (+0,25%) (Europe | TER 0.25 % | TD -0.20 % | 1.4 bn | 3Y Outperf. vs. Eurostoxx 600 -+6,4 %).

💡 Index methodology:

• The ETFs are based on respective "parent indices", e.g. the MSCI World.
• In the first step, the variables are named for the value ETF:
• Expected earnings per share (price-earnings ratio)
• Price-to-book value (price-to-book value ratio)
• Equity value / cash flow from operations (unlevered equity / operating cash inflow)
• For each share, the Z-value (see first article) is determined for the individual key figures
• Extreme values are then eliminated
• The Z-values are then added together for each share
• The shares with the highest total Z-scores are included in the ETF
• Rebalancing takes place every six months (May & November)

👉 Ossiam Shiller Barclays CAPE

• 
  $216361 (+0,32%) (US | TER 0.65 % | TD 0.66 % | 2.5 bn | 3Y Underperf. vs. S&P 500 -3,35 %)
• $CAPE (+0,6%) (Europe | TER 0.65 % | TD 0.64 | 0.2 bn | 3Y Outperf. vs. Eurostoxx 600 1,2 %)

💡 Index methodology:

• Based on the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio) developed by Shiller
• The equity market, e.g. the US market, is divided into sectors (in this case 11) and the respective sector price earnings are determined. The inflation-adjusted (10-year) sector profits are used for this purpose
• A CAPE ratio is then calculated monthly for each sector and this is set in relation to the 20-year average for the sector.
• The 5 sectors with the lowest relative CAPE ratio are selected, as these are considered undervalued
• From these 5, the sector with the weakest 12-month price momentum is filtered out to avoid "value traps"
• The remaining 4 sectors are then weighted at 25%.

Conclusion Value:

The value premium was particularly evident in the 80-90s and after the dotcom bubble burst in the 2000s, but in the years that followed, growth stocks performed significantly better, so the value factor was more of a drag on returns. It is also questionable whether the value premium has come under pressure in the wake of changing business models. Instead of P/E ratios and P/B ratios, SAAS companies have their own KPIs such as Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) or Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), Daily Active Users (DAU) and many more.

However, if one follows the reversion to the mean approach that values tend to revert to the long-term mean, excessive differences in returns between value and growth stocks could be used to speculate on a convergence of these, in this case a resurgence of the value premium. The selection of these ETFs is therefore a bet that the value factor will prevail over growth companies in the future.

It is a pity that there is no value emerging markets ETF that I know of, as I believe it would be particularly important to pay special attention to the stability of equities here. There is a tendency for the European indices to outperform the benchmark index, which could be due to the fact that Europe is more value-oriented and does not have any large growth companies like the USA, for example. Anyone interested in the Shiller-Barclays-CAPE ETF (an exciting approach in my view) should in any case be aware of the high tracking differences.

#smartbeta

#etfs
#value
#valueinvesting
#portfolio
#stockanalysis

Different TER (costs) for ETFs

Recently there was an interesting article here by @DonkeyInvestor. It was about restructuring his ETF portfolio. Specifically, about saving in alternative, new ETFs with lower management fees (TER). I made a note of that.

During my research, I noticed that prices are shown differently on different platforms. For example, various articles state that UBS has lowered its ETF prices everywhere.

The UBS ETF MSCI World UCITS ETF (USD) A-acc for example, is said to have annual costs of 0.10 % according to Onvista. In Trade Republic, however, the ETF is displayed with costs of 0.29%.

Does anyone know why this might be? Different markets? These are actually global products.

I am currently saving:

$XDWD (-0,07%) (TER 0.19%) -> Xtrackers

$IEMA (+0,1%) (TER 0.18%) -> iShars

$IPRV (+0,42%) (TER 0.75%) -> iShares

$XDEQ (-0,02%) (TER 0.25%) -> Xtrackers

$XDEV (-0,15%) (TER 0.25%) -> Xtrackers

Of course, there are not alternatives from other issuers for each of these products. $IPRV (+0,42%) is comparatively expensive, for example, but rather rare as a product.

Would be grateful for tips, on the one hand why a) the cost display is so different and b) which alternatives are cheaper.

And am I c) that if I decide to invest in new, cheaper ETFs, it is better to keep the old ones in my portfolio instead of switching them and (immediately) paying tax?

#etf
#etfkosten
#etfanalyse
#xtrackers
#ishares
#ubs
#getquin

Do you also have weight problems? 😘

As I've increased my EM market share a little (between 20 and 25%), the old continent is unfortunately a little short at the moment... (16%)

The reason for this is that in the Quality ($XDEQ (-0,02%) ), Value ($XDEV (-0,15%) ) and Momentum ($XDEM (+0,02%) ) ETFs currently contain a lot of USA / Japan.

Or to put it another way, Europe is so out, not even within the value ETFs it accounts for more than 1/3 of the weighting.

Which one would you recommend and why? I am fond of

Stoxx600 $n/a (+0,4%) MSCI Europe $SMEA (+0,48%) or MSCI Europe MultiFactor $IBC0 (+0,35%)

The ETF will logically be sold again if the European weighting becomes too high at some point.

Another Europe by Sturm Café comes to mind... good song...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ymtne62xcxE

How do equity returns behave in relation to economic growth?

https://getqu.in/Ii4nBx/

The USA belongs in every portfolio! BUT: Country diversification is important!

https://getqu.in/NXy7mT/

A different perspective on gold and BTC - What can possibly go wrong?

https://getqu.in/BSxcSb/

There is nothing magical about dividend growth!

https://getqu.in/wL4sOf/

At what point is my portfolio diversified? - Are 30 stocks enough?

https://getqu.in/TdfxBy/

Tiny Titans strategy

https://getqu.in/JfQMe4/

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Crypto share

between 10-30 % of all assets

50 % $BTC (-2,49%)

45 % $ETH (-2,12%)

5 % $SOL (-0,26%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Equity / bond share

Multifactor portfolio with cash / bond reserve for countercyclical purchases.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Target allocation bonds / cash:

20% - 0% of the total portfolio, depending on the distance from the last ATH

75% EUR

------> 50% cash + overnight ETF $CSH2 (+0,02%)

------> 12.5% Inflation Linked Govt Bonds $IBCI (-0,36%)

------> 12.5 % Germany Gov Bond $X03G (-0,04%)

25 % USD

------> 12.5 % TIPS US Inflation-Linked Bonds $XTIP (+0,1%)

------> 12.5 US Treasury Bond 3-7 Year $TR7G (+0,14%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Target allocation equities:

80-100% of total portfolio, depending on distance from last ATH

35.0% World AllCaps Market capitalization weighted

-> 35 % Developed + Emerging Markets $SPYI (-0,13%)

48.0 % Developed Markets Factors

-> 12.0 % Value Factor $XDEV (-0,15%)

-> 12.0 % Quality Factor $XDEQ (-0,02%)

-> 12.0 % Momentum Factor $XDEM (+0,02%)

-> 12.0 % Size Factor

----> 2.75 % US Small Cap Value weighted $ZPRV (-0,23%)

----> 2.75 % US Small Cap Quality $RTWO (+0,24%)

----> 5.5 % EU Small Cap Value weighted $ZPRX (-0,32%)

----> 1.0 % Japan Small Caps $ISJP (-0,25%)

17.0 % Emerging Markets

-> 2.0 % EM AllCaps $EIMI (-0,01%)

-> 5.0 % EM Value Factor $5MVL (+0,18%)

-> 5.0 % EM Quality $PEH (+0,13%)

-> 5.0 % EM Size Factor $SPYX (-0,46%)

Performance porn 2023:

https://getqu.in/BY7tzt/

Welcome to "buy low, sell lower" I am your tour guide and today we are visiting the earth's core.

Savings plan VL-Savings

VL-Savings Position 1